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Prediction Thread - Ontario Election 2014
Wed, 2014-05-14 16:46
#1
Prediction Thread - Ontario Election 2014
Wed, 2014-05-14 16:48
#2
Woo! Hoo!
Well girls and boys, it's that time again. 
Wed, 2014-05-14 16:52
#3
Here is a popular vote forecast:
PCs - 39%
NDP - 31%
Libs - 23%
Grns - 4%
Oth - 3%
Total - 100%
Wed, 2014-05-14 17:03
#4
The election is Thursday, June 12, less than a month away now.
Should we have a cut off date for predictions?
How about Sunday, June 8th at midnite Pacific Time?
Predictions are welcome for both the polular vote and seat count.
We have a separate Ontario election polling thread for the others, so let's restrict the predictions here to the babble posters and see how we do against the actual results.
Wed, 2014-05-14 20:13
#6
I'm thinking status quo, another Liberal minority govt with some gains by the NDP. The latest poll suggests Hudak shot himself in the foot with his announcement of the 100,000 jobs cut from the public sector.
Wed, 2014-05-14 21:24
#7
Yeah. Something like that. But it is early going. Hudak's electin to lose. By rights the Tories should just roll the Liberals after all the fuck-ups, but they are just so bad.
Wed, 2014-05-14 22:47
#8
seat count
52 ndp
35 pc
20 lib
I hope this leads to a formal coalition with the NDP in government supported by the Libs.
I'm hoping that Andrea pulls a Jack Layton after the debates.
This would also be the death of Hudak's leadership and probably Wynne's as well.
I am a optimist.
Thu, 2014-05-15 18:48
#9
P.C. - 47
NDP - 32
LIB - 28
The Liberals dump (push?) Wynne as soon as someone can open a window, and announce that they'll let the P.C.s govern until a leadership convention can take place.
Thu, 2014-05-15 22:40
#10
Great prediction, Orangutan.
Thu, 2014-05-15 22:42
#11
I think Oranguntans prediction is the most likely at this juncture, but with the caveat that a good debate, or positive twist in the campaign in favour the NDP could put scot16's prediction within reach.
Thu, 2014-05-15 22:46
#12
If nothing much changes in the campaign, I predict...
Ajax—Pickering - Liberal
Algoma—Manitoulin - NDP
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale - Liberal
Barrie - PC
Beaches—East York - NDP
Bramalea—Gore—Malton - NDP
Brampton West - Liberal
Brampton—Springdale - Liberal (I suspect the NDP will have a surprising large vote increase here)
Brant - Liberal (Possibility it could go PC or NDP)
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound - PC
Burlington - PC
Cambridge - PC
Carleton—Mississippi Mills - PC
Chatham-Kent—Essex - PC
Davenport - NDP
Don Valley East - Liberal
Don Valley West - Liberal
Dufferin—Caledon - PC (The Greens have an outside shot if Liberals and NDPers strategically vote)
Durham - PC
Eglinton—Lawrence - Liberal
Elgin—Middlesex—London - PC
Essex - NDP
Etobicoke Centre - Liberal
Etobicoke North - Liberal
Etobicoke—Lakeshore - Liberal (Strategic voting I think will turn this one back to the Liberals) *PICKUP*
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell - PC *PICKUP*
Guelph - Liberal (The Greens will be close)
Haldimand—Norfolk - PC
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes— Brock - PC
Halton - PC
Hamilton Centre - NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek - NDP
Hamilton Mountain - NDP
Huron—Bruce - PC
Kenora—Rainy River - NDP
Kingston and the Islands - Liberal
Kitchener Centre - Liberal
Kitchener—Conestoga - PC
Kitchener—Waterloo - NDP
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex - PC
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington - PC
Leeds—Grenville - PC
London North Centre - NDP *PICKUP*
London West - NDP
London—Fanshawe - NDP
Markham—Unionville - Liberal
Mississauga East—Cooksville - Liberal
Mississauga South - Liberal
Mississauga—Brampton South - Liberal
Mississauga—Erindale - Liberal
Mississauga—Streetsville - Liberal
Nepean—Carleton - PC
Newmarket—Aurora - PC
Niagara Falls - NDP
Niagara West—Glanbrook - PC
Nickel Belt - NDP
Nipissing - PC
Northumberland—Quinte West - PC
Oak Ridges—Markham - PC *PICKUP*
Oakville - Liberal
Oshawa - PC
Ottawa Centre - Liberal
Ottawa South - PC *PICKUP*
Ottawa West—Nepean - PC *PICKUP*
Ottawa—Orléans - PC *PICKUP*
Ottawa—Vanier - Liberal
Oxford - PC
Parkdale—High Park - NDP
Parry Sound—Muskoka - PC
Perth—Wellington - PC
Peterborough - Liberal
Pickering—Scarborough East - Liberal
Prince Edward—Hastings - PC
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke - PC
Richmond Hill - Liberal
St. Catharines - PC *PICKUP*
St. Paul's - Liberal
Sarnia—Lambton - PC
Sault Ste. Marie - Liberal
Scarborough Centre - Liberal
Scarborough Southwest - Liberal
Scarborough—Agincourt - Liberal
Scarborough—Guildwood - Liberal
Scarborough—Rouge River - Liberal (Neethan Shan will make it close)
Simcoe North - PC
Simcoe—Grey - PC
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry - PC
Sudbury - NDP *PICKUP*
Thornhill - PC
Thunder Bay—Atikokan - NDP *PICKUP*
Thunder Bay—Superior North - NDP *PICKUP*
Timiskaming—Cochrane - NDP
Timmins—James Bay - NDP
Toronto Centre - Liberal
Toronto—Danforth - NDP
Trinity—Spadina - NDP
Vaughan - Liberal
Welland - NDP
Wellington—Halton Hills - PC
Whitby—Oshawa - PC
Willowdale - Liberal
Windsor West - NDP *PICKUP*
Windsor—Tecumseh - NDP
York Centre - Liberal
York South—Weston - Liberal (Liberals will take YSW again)
York West - Liberal (I suspect the NDP will come closer to winning York West)
York—Simcoe - PC
NDP + 5 seats (Windsor West, London North Centre, Sudbury, Thunder Bay Atikokan, Thunder Bay Superior)
PC + 5 seats (St. Catherines, Ottawa South, Ottawa Orleans, Ottawa West-Nepean, Oak Ridges Markham, Glengarry Prescott Russell)
Liberal Losses (see above)
Liberal Gains +1 (Etobicoke Lakeshore)
Total:
NDP - 26
PC - 42
Liberal - 38
Thu, 2014-05-15 22:59
#13
I think Oranguntans prediction is the most likely at this juncture, but with the caveat that a good debate, or positive twist in the campaign in favour the NDP could put scot16's prediction within reach.
Not so sure about scot16's prediction. I think the PC vote is more susceptible to collapsing than the Liberals, similar to Tory's numbers in the 2007 election. Don't think the Liberals can go below 30% with Wynne during this election unless some major scandal is revealed/rehatched during the campaign. That said, I think the NDP vote is also susceptible to collapsing to a result similar to Howie Hampton's 2007 results. I think the best we can hope for this election is a tight three way race with the NDP in the low 30s. I also hope the Greens get a seat or two, as it will keep the NDP honest. While I like aspects of the Ontario NDP strategy this election (good fiscal managers, accountability), I think it is missing a social conscience. There is very little in terms of addressing issues such as poverty and transit. $12 minimum wage is what the Liberals are promising as well. I wouldn't be surprised if the Ontario NDP are playing the long game, aiming to change the Ontario NDP image in order to win the next election (as in all liklihood it will be another minority).
Fri, 2014-05-16 14:47
#14
PC – 50 (WIN London-C, St Cath, Ottawa-O, Ottawa-S, Kitchener-C, Brampton-G-M, Brampton-W, Brampton-Spring, Niagara Falls, Kitchener-Wloo, Brant, Oak Ridges, Ajax-P, Etobicoke-C, The Sault; Lose Etobicoke-L)
Liberals – 38 (WIN Trinity-S, Etobicoke-L; Lose London-C, St Cath, Ottawa-O, Ottawa-S, Kitchener-C, Brampton-W, Brampton-Spring, Brant, Oak Ridges, Ajax-P, Etobicoke-C, Thunder Bay-A, Sudbury)
NDP – 19 (WIN Sudbury and Thunder Bay-A; Lose Niagara Falls, Trinity-S, K-Wloo, Brampton-G-M)
Does this add up? I'm equally bad at math and election predictions.
Fri, 2014-05-16 14:48
#15
double post
Fri, 2014-05-16 21:40
#16
Given the office-holder in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, I highly doubt the PCs would lose it while gaining Etobicoke Centre.
Nor do I foresee Jagmeet Singh so endangered.
Fri, 2014-05-16 21:46
#17
I doubt Rosario will lose T-S. Last time Liberals ran a name candidate in the form of Sara Thompson, right after her run for mayor and came close. This time think he will hang on by a larger margin, because the Liberal is a relative unknown. Though the Adam Vaughan thing might elevate Liberal prospects.
Jonah Schein might be more vulnerable.
Fri, 2014-05-16 22:28
#18
Given the office-holder in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, I highly doubt the PCs would lose it while gaining Etobicoke Centre.
This is a general election, not a by-election. Doug Holliday represented Etobicoke Centre Ward 3 on Toronto City Council and was the last Mayor almost 20 years ago of Etobicoke. Peter Milczyn is a popular city councillor who represents the area on city council. Wynne is also strong in Toronto. I think MIlczyn has the edge. Pity, this riding once often went NDP provincially.
Fri, 2014-05-16 23:36
#19
LP: 43 seats
PC: 42 seats
NDP: 21 seats
Fri, 2014-05-16 23:37
#20
dp
Sat, 2014-05-17 07:01
#21
Liberal: 61
Conservative: 37
NDP: 9
Sat, 2014-05-17 12:06
#22
Are you the optimist Skinny Dipper ;p
Sat, 2014-05-17 18:20
#23
Given the office-holder in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, I highly doubt the PCs would lose it while gaining Etobicoke Centre.
This is a general election, not a by-election. Doug Holliday represented Etobicoke Centre Ward 3 on Toronto City Council and was the last Mayor almost 20 years ago of Etobicoke. Peter Milczyn is a popular city councillor who represents the area on city council. Wynne is also strong in Toronto. I think MIlczyn has the edge. Pity, this riding once often went NDP provincially.
But it's still Doug Holyday--he's still a powerhouse. Trust me. And note the "...while gaining Etobicoke Centre" part. Just because DH represented part of EC municipally, doesn't mean it'll tip that way provincially in his absence.
And given how he nearly lost in the last municipal election, Milczyn's not necessarily as "popular" as it seems, either--though yes, the rematch is about as good as it gets for the Grits vs Holyday.
Yes, Holyday might lose. But it won't be on behalf of a seat-swap.
Sun, 2014-05-18 08:06
#24
Are you the optimist Skinny Dipper ;p
I originally had the NDP lower.
Sun, 2014-05-18 13:15
#25
And note the "...while gaining Etobicoke Centre" part.
Liberal MPP Donna Cansfield isn't running again in Etobicoke Centre and the Liberal candidate is a former political staffer/consultant with little traction and no name recognition. Etobicoke Cente also has a stronger conservative history than Etobicoke-Lakeshore.
Holyday will be formidable, but the PC by-election win was something like the NDP's in Niagara Falls - where all internal polling and intel told them they were going to win with a decent buffer - only to get surprised on election night by the margin between first and second place. Milczyn has name recognition and Hudak's momentum is going to swing NDP votes to Liberal in marginal ridings like this one.
Singh has an excellent profile and is one of the leg's top performers, but being the darling of the Toronto media doesn't keep you elected in Brampton and with the current dynamics his is a seat that could flip - particularly given the PCs are walloping in the 905.
I'd agree with Skinny Dipper with regard to her/his general outlook on the NDP's election prospects, although going down to nine seats isn't likely.
Thunder Bay has never been a strong NDP constituency - the NDP won't beat Michael Gravelle in Thunder Bay-Superior. They're not going to win Sault Ste Marie. John Vanthof and Moe Mantha are likely safe, although there is a strong PC constituency in Temiskaming that could make it a three-way race. Once Gilles Bisson retires, Timmins-James Bay goes PC. The spectacular rise of the PCs in northern Ontario both federally and provincially - in 2011 some saw their vote totals rise by 30% - has gone unnoticed by most commenters.
Bisson, Vanthof, Mantha, Gélinas, Tabuns, Prue, Horwath, DiNovo and Hatfield are likely a lock. Forster, Miller and Taylor could see things get a little hairy for them. I could see the NDP also losing their seats in London, Essex and Rainy River, not winning Thunder Bay-Atikokan, and if things get really bad losing Davenport (bringing them down to 13).
Usually the NDP's electoral vote percentage is higher than its percentage of the leg's seats. This election may buck that trend.
Sun, 2014-05-18 13:43
#26
Liberal majority
Sun, 2014-05-18 23:02
#27
Thunder Bay has never been a strong NDP constituency - the NDP won't beat Michael Gravelle in Thunder Bay-Superior. They're not going to win Sault Ste Marie. John Vanthof and Moe Mantha are likely safe, although there is a strong PC constituency in Temiskaming that could make it a three-way race. Once Gilles Bisson retires, Timmins-James Bay goes PC. The spectacular rise of the PCs in northern Ontario both federally and provincially - in 2011 some saw their vote totals rise by 30% - has gone unnoticed by most commenters.
Both federally and provincially, the Conservative gains in the north have been almost exclusively at the expense of the Liberals. In the 2011 Ontario general electon, the NDP increased their vote percentage in almost every northern riding. The only constituency in which the party lost more than a marginal percent of the vote was Kenora-Rainy River. However, given Howard Hampton's retirement, this was to be expcted.
Mon, 2014-05-19 10:20
#28
And note the "...while gaining Etobicoke Centre" part.
Liberal MPP Donna Cansfield isn't running again in Etobicoke Centre and the Liberal candidate is a former political staffer/consultant with little traction and no name recognition. Etobicoke Cente also has a stronger conservative history than Etobicoke-Lakeshore.
Holyday will be formidable, but the PC by-election win was something like the NDP's in Niagara Falls - where all internal polling and intel told them they were going to win with a decent buffer - only to get surprised on election night by the margin between first and second place. Milczyn has name recognition and Hudak's momentum is going to swing NDP votes to Liberal in marginal ridings like this one.
But nevertheless, Holyday's the incumbent. And in the end, it isn't so much that EC has the stronger Con history--more that it has the weaker NDP history; that is, in sharply polarized Man/Sask/BC terms, it'd naturally be likelier to fall into the "free enterprise" camp.
That is: whatever the candidate calibre in either camp--if Hudak's doing *that* well, gaining EC and holding EL will go hand-in-hand. No swap.
And I speak as someone who was fond of debunking past overwrought claims of Con strength in EL--claims born mostly out of Patrick Boyer's federal overachievement in '93 + Capobianco's overachievement in '04-06...
Mon, 2014-05-19 12:48
#29
Thunder Bay has never been a strong NDP constituency - the NDP won't beat Michael Gravelle in Thunder Bay-Superior. They're not going to win Sault Ste Marie. John Vanthof and Moe Mantha are likely safe, although there is a strong PC constituency in Temiskaming that could make it a three-way race. Once Gilles Bisson retires, Timmins-James Bay goes PC. The spectacular rise of the PCs in northern Ontario both federally and provincially - in 2011 some saw their vote totals rise by 30% - has gone unnoticed by most commenters.
What a f***ing joke. Sounds like the lies of some backroom hack.
Doug Fisher, Ernie Epp, Bruce Hyer, John Rafferty, Iain Angus all represented Thunder Bay area ridings federally for the NDP at some point
Shelley Wark-Martyn, Gilles Pouliot, Jim Foulds, Iain Angus, Jake Stokes, Garfield Anderson, Frederick Oliver Robinson all represented Thunder Bay area ridings provincially for the NDP/CCF.
Some of these ridings have been held more often by the NDP than the Liberals. Yes, the Liberals may be stronger in Thunder Bay, but the NDP are nearly as strong. The Conservatives/PC have rarely held Thunder Bay ridings.
Mon, 2014-05-19 20:09
#30
No need to get nasty, even if I had predicted that Thunder Bay ridings would go Conservative. (Which I didn't.) In the long-term, a strong PC vote in northern Ontario could tip some ridings the PC way, eventually (most at risk: Rainy River, SSM, TJB, Temiskaming-Cochrane) and take away enough NDP votes to tip others toward the Liberals (Thunder Bay, Algoma, Sudbury). It's just math.
Even you admit that the Liberals are stronger in Thunder Bay. It's why the NDP failed to win any of the TBay ridings even on McGuinty's third kick of the can (even after the decimation of northern ontario in the last six years, and after the NDP "orange crush"), it's why they haven't been able to knock-off a guy like Mauro, it's why Mary Kozorys (as nice as she is) is the nominee in Atikokan, and it's why an NDP win in TBay in this election still isn't a sure outcome. It's unfortunate, but it is what it is.
The PC-NDP vote transfer in the north is very fluid. Hudak's message resonates with some in a region that's taken it on the chin, seen the NDP prop up a tired government that oversaw drastic economic collapse (not to mention the ONTC cancellation), and that perceives itself as being left out the government hiring bonanza (when, in fact, the opposite is true). Prairie is correct - a lot of the PC vote in 2011 was due to Liberal collapse. However, it wasn't all a one way transfer. Having worked that 2011 election in northern Ontario - and others before that - one of the things that surprised us all was that while our marks were good, some of the regional/local tallies were not what we expected - more liberal leaning areas going NDP and areas that we expected to go NDP surprisingly PC. I think you'll see more NDP-PC vote transfer this time.
Tue, 2014-05-20 19:08
#31
OnTheLeft
Liberal majority
Thu, 2014-05-22 12:39
#32
Gonna stick with this popular vote forecast.
Here is a popular vote forecast:
PCs - 39%
NDP - 31%
Libs - 23%
Grns - 4%
Oth - 3%
Total - 100%
Thu, 2014-05-22 13:22
#33
Advance polls distort final outcome of elections: Hebert
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/05/21/advance_polls_distort_fina...
Thu, 2014-05-22 13:32
#34
Advance polls distort final outcome of elections: Hebert
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/05/21/advance_polls_distort_fina...
I would venture to say that most voters who vote early are the type of voters who, obviously, have their minds made up and who will not be swayed by superficial events like debates. I really don't see the concern.
Thu, 2014-05-22 13:47
#35
It is a big issue so I disagree.
There should have been several more debates scheduled as proposed by Andrea.
The Liberals are opposed to more debates as they want people going to advance polls before people have all the facts before them.
Why do the Liberals want uninformed voters?
Advance polls distort final outcome of elections: Hebert
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/05/21/advance_polls_distort_fina...
I would venture to say that most voters who vote early are the type of voters who, obviously, have their minds made up and who will not be swayed by superficial events like debates. I really don't see the concern.
Thu, 2014-05-22 13:55
#36
Okay, I get your point. Voters are too stupid to be permitted to vote early.
Thu, 2014-05-22 13:59
#37
^^ Agreed with Josh. We trust voters to choose how to vote but not when to vote? That's goofy.
Thu, 2014-05-22 14:17
#38
I see. ....so voters are so smart they have keep Harper in power for how many years now?
Andrea has asked for several more debates? The Liberals refuse.
Why do the Liberals refuse an economic debate?
Why would the Liberals want uninformed voters?
Everyone knows the answer to these questions.
Okay, I get your point. Voters are too stupid to be permitted to vote early.
Thu, 2014-05-22 14:29
#39
I see. ....so voters are so smart they have keep Harper in power for how many years now?
Not that it has to with anything, but over 60% of voters have voted against him in every election.
Thu, 2014-05-22 15:00
#40
It has everything to do with it.
There is a problem with our voting system. Who knew.
And there is a problem with uninformed voters. No kidding.
Advance polls were set up to help but unfortunately the road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Unfortunately he Liberals are exhibiting lack of courage here, by not ensuring voters have as much information as possible by refusing to participate in all the debates that the NDP are proposing, especially around the economy.
It would be a golden opportunity for the Liberals to talk about about how concerned they are for Ontario's less fortunate.
Liberals don't walk the talk, do they?
I see. ....so voters are so smart they have keep Harper in power for how many years now?
Not that it has to with anything, but over 60% of voters have voted against him in every election.
Thu, 2014-05-22 15:34
#41
NR, when the next Federal election happens, will you need until e-day to decide which party you'll vote for?
Thu, 2014-05-22 16:13
#42
What is the point of even having an election campaign?
I don't think we need them but that's the game we play.
Why are Liberal supporters not clammering for economic debates if they are so concerned about the less fortunate?
Thu, 2014-05-22 16:20
#43
Here is an example of what Chantal Hebert is talking about:
http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2014/05/monica_wehbys_support_...
Monica Wehby won the Oregon Republican senate primary by 20%. Oregon allows voting by mail. About a week before the election there were major revelations that Wehby, who until that time was well ahead, had stalked her ex-husband and engaed in other weird behaviour. She dominated the early voting but only led by 1% among those who voted after the revelations came out.
As a result the Republicans may be saddled with a very flawed candidate, one they might not have chosen without so much advance voting.
Sat, 2014-05-24 17:11
#44
There should have been several more debates scheduled as proposed by Andrea.
The Liberals are opposed to more debates as they want people going to advance polls before people have all the facts before them.
Well actually, unlike Dalton McGuinty, Kathleen Wynne has agreed to particpiate in the Northern Ontario debate in addition to the regular debate. So there's another debate right there that the Libs are agreeing to, NR.
It's Tim Hudak who has apparently said no to the Northern Ontario debate and won't be showing up.
Sat, 2014-05-24 17:25
#45
Why didn't Wynne agree to a minimum of 5 debates as Andrea suggested which would be much healthier for democracy?
$45 to get in, not televised, who kidding who here?
Gonna stick with my original forecast as I have not seen anything so far to change it.
There should have been several more debates scheduled as proposed by Andrea.
The Liberals are opposed to more debates as they want people going to advance polls before people have all the facts before them.
Well actually, unlike Dalton McGuinty, Kathleen Wynne has agreed to particpiate in the Northern Ontario debate in addition to the regular debate. So there's another debate right there that the Libs are agreeing to, NR.
It's Tim Hudak who has apparently said no to the Northern Ontario debate and won't be showing up.
Sun, 2014-05-25 00:39
#46
Did Hudak agree to these 5 other debates?
Unless he did, there would be no point to Wynne doing so - she's already doing the Northern Ontario one with just herself & Horwath.
It's not always up to the leaders, btw. It also has to be arranged with the broadcast consortiums and networks, and getting air time and public interest for that many debates is not easy.
Btw, the leader who usually asks for extra debates is usually the one most in trouble.
Why didn't Wynne agree to a minimum of 5 debates as Andrea suggested which would be much healthier for democracy?
$45 to get in, not televised, who kidding who here?
Gonna stick with my original forecast as I have not seen anything so far to change it.
There should have been several more debates scheduled as proposed by Andrea.
The Liberals are opposed to more debates as they want people going to advance polls before people have all the facts before them.
Well actually, unlike Dalton McGuinty, Kathleen Wynne has agreed to particpiate in the Northern Ontario debate in addition to the regular debate. So there's another debate right there that the Libs are agreeing to, NR.
It's Tim Hudak who has apparently said no to the Northern Ontario debate and won't be showing up.
Sun, 2014-05-25 02:36
#47
Not buying it.
Reasons not to debate can always be found
Excuses can always be made.
Political parties can find ways to have debates if they are committed to doing so.
Obviously Liberals are afraid to debate economics or they would have agreed to Andrea's debate suggestion.
Liberals believe in democracy when it suits them and when it doesn't suit them - not so much. 
Did Hudak agree to these 5 other debates?
Unless he did, there would be no point to Wynne doing so - she's already doing the Northern Ontario one with just herself & Horwath.
It's not always up to the leaders, btw. It also has to be arranged with the broadcast consortiums and networks, and getting air time and public interest for that many debates is not easy.
Btw, the leader who usually asks for extra debates is usually the one most in trouble.
Why didn't Wynne agree to a minimum of 5 debates as Andrea suggested which would be much healthier for democracy?
$45 to get in, not televised, who kidding who here?
Gonna stick with my original forecast as I have not seen anything so far to change it.
There should have been several more debates scheduled as proposed by Andrea.
The Liberals are opposed to more debates as they want people going to advance polls before people have all the facts before them.
Well actually, unlike Dalton McGuinty, Kathleen Wynne has agreed to particpiate in the Northern Ontario debate in addition to the regular debate. So there's another debate right there that the Libs are agreeing to, NR.
It's Tim Hudak who has apparently said no to the Northern Ontario debate and won't be showing up.
Sun, 2014-05-25 02:48
#48
Here is Eric Grenier's current Seat Projection :
PC - 45
LIB - 41
NDP - 21
Sun, 2014-05-25 02:56
#49
And what percentage of the polls Grenier is using for his projections are affliiated with the Liberals? 25% 33% 50% More than 50%
Kinda left that part out, eh!
Don't forget the ole expression: "Garbage In = Gabage Out".
Here is Eric Grenier's current Seat Projection :
PC - 45
LIB - 41
NDP - 21
Sun, 2014-05-25 03:04
#50
NR, unlike you or I, Eric Grenier is a non-partisan political analyst who takes his job seriously.
He writes for a number of publications, from The Globe & Mail to The Huffington Post, so he is not ideologically tied to a particular party. He is using all of the pollsters in this Ontario election in order to formulate the projections - EKOS, Ipsos-Reid, Forum, etc. Many journalists such as Chantal Hébert also regularly refer to Grenier's polling analysis.
Your attempt to smear him and accuse him of partisan bias doesn't contribute to the discussion.
Sun, 2014-05-25 14:09
#51
Eric Grenier is a non-partisan political analyst who takes his job seriously.
He writes for a number of publications, from The Globe & Mail to The Huffington Post, so he is not ideologically tied to a particular party. He is using all of the pollsters in this Ontario election in order to formulate the projections - EKOS, Ipsos-Reid, Forum, etc. Many journalists such as Chantal Hébert also regularly refer to Grenier's polling analysis.
Seat predictions are merely snapshots at a particular moment in a campaign and they lack local knowledge of the candidates, campaign and issues, thus I would not put too much weight in them. For example, no one predicted the surge for the NDP in Bramlea-Gore-Malton in 2011, nor are they predicting the large voter increase that will happen in Brampton-Springdale this election for the NDP.
As for Eric's predictions on ThreeHundredEight, he uses polling data not just from unbiased pollsters, but from pollsters who clearly have party links and biases. Personally, from reading Eric's blog for years, I think if anything he leans to the left politically, but attempts to be unbiased in his predictions.
NorthReport is however right about pollster bias (see http://rabble.ca/babble/ontario/ontario-polling-thread-april-18-2012?page=13)