Ontario Polling Thread - started May 20, 2014

Debater wrote:

There currently is not the concentration of votes for the NDP to win in Ontario because of their weakness in the 905 & Eastern Ontario, as well as the numerous 416 Liberal strongholds and rural Conservative strongholds.  Currently the NDP holds no seats in the 905 and no seats in Eastern Ontario.

Even someone as popular as Jack Layton, a Toronto MP and City Councillor, was not able to win in the 905 or anywhere in Eastern Ontario except Ottawa Centre.  Here in Eastern Ontario where I live, I see very few NDP votes and not enough concentration to gain any real momentum.

True, but I do not think it is because these areas of Ontario are intrinsically against the NDP.  Parts of Eastern Ontario have had NDP representation at some point:

Peterborough (Federal) - 1960-1962 ; Peterborough (Provincial) - 1967-1971, 1975-1977, 1990-1995

Cornwall (Provincial) - 1974-1985

Ottawa Centre (Federal) - 1984-1988, 2004-present ; Ottawa Centre (Provincial) - 1971-1987, 1990-1995

Carleton East (Provincial) - 1975-1981

+ a number of ridings in the 1990 election that were won: Frontenac-Addington, Hastings—Peterborough, Kingston and The Islands, Prince Edward-Lennox, Victoria-Haliburton

In the 905, we have always been strongest in Durham Region.  

Things can change with hard work and the right conditions.  Jagmeet Singh's win Bramlea-Gore-Malton demonstrates this.  I think if star candidates can be attracted to more favourable ridings (e.g. Kingston and the Islands), campaigning starts early, and the local campaign is strong and well supported, coupled with other positive conditions (lack of incumbent, strong provincial/federal campaigns, etc.) that we can win and hold favourable ridings in these areas.

Where do I think we should focus in these areas?

In Eastern Ontario, Peterborugh and Kingston make the most sense.  Medium-sized Ontario cities outside of the GTA and Ottawa are increasingly supporting the NDP.  Within Ottawa, Ottawa Centre should become ours again once popular Liberal MPP Yasir Naqvi leaves (or maybe his NDP brother and father can convince him to switch).  Ottawa Vanier also seems like a riding that will hold future promise for the NDP.  I don't think the Cornwall riding (Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry) will even be winnable again - even though the city still has strong NDP support, the rural/urban mix is not favourable.  

In the GTA (Durham, York, Peel and Halton regions), I think we can win Oshawa back this provincial election and in the federal election next year.  With one Brampton riding already held provincially, the NDP are running a strong campaign in Brampton Springdale.  I think all three Brampton ridings will become competive with star candidates and strong candidates.  I think the new ridings of Mississauga Malton, Mississauga Cooksville, Pickering-Uxbridge, Ajax and Markham-Thornhill have more favourable conditions for the NDP and could become winnable in the future.  Not sure about elsewhere in the GTA.  

Orangutan wrote:

Within Ottawa, Ottawa Centre should become ours again once popular Liberal MPP Yasir Naqvi leaves (or maybe his NDP brother and father can convince him to switch).  Ottawa Vanier also seems like a riding that will hold future promise for the NDP.

I think the NDP might have even had a shot at Ottawa Centre this election had Alex Cullen sought the nomination there instead of Ottawa West-Nepean. He has some support in the west end due to him being attentive to his constituents during his time on city council, but his politics are probably closer to those of the urban voters in Ottawa Centre than they are to the suburban voters where he's running.

I don't see Ottawa Vanier going to the NDP any time soon. The only candidate to even come close to 30% was Trevor Haché, in the federal election of 2011. He has since resigned his membership out of disagreement with Horwath's leadership.

From 308:

Quote:

The PCs led in every region of the province except Toronto and the North, where the Liberals and NDP, respectively, were ahead. There is nothing in the regional numbers that stands out as unusual, but there were some big swings: the NDP picked up 11 points in Toronto, while the PCs fell by 12 points. The Liberals were up 19 points in central Ontario, and the PCs moved ahead of the NDP in the southwest.

Fascinating.  Initially I thought the NDP might not do well in Toronto, but from the above it seems I may have been mistaken.  "the NDP picked up 11 points in Toronto" -- fascinating.  I'm becoming hopeful that the next parliament will be a minority with a far stronger NDP presence.  I still think they'll be third, but who knows, perhaps that could change too.

mark_alfred wrote:

From 308:

Quote:

The PCs led in every region of the province except Toronto and the North, where the Liberals and NDP, respectively, were ahead. There is nothing in the regional numbers that stands out as unusual, but there were some big swings: the NDP picked up 11 points in Toronto, while the PCs fell by 12 points. The Liberals were up 19 points in central Ontario, and the PCs moved ahead of the NDP in the southwest.

Fascinating.  Initially I thought the NDP might not do well in Toronto, but from the above it seems I may have been mistaken.  "the NDP picked up 11 points in Toronto" -- fascinating.  I'm becoming hopeful that the next parliament will be a minority with a far stronger NDP presence.  I still think they'll be third, but who knows, perhaps that could change too.

That's the Ipsos-Reid poll.  If you see Eric Grenier's other recent entry, the results are somewhat different for the NDP in EKOS and Forum.

A couple of guys arguing over whose poll is bigger...

Are you hoping for a Hudak win, NR?

Anyway, it's too soon to tell yet, but it would be interesting to see what effect Hudak being Premier could have on Harper's numbers in the next election.

Will the historical voting pattern in Ontario of voting one way provincially and another way federally continue?

Harper PM = McGuinty in Ontario

Chrétien PM = Harris in Ontario

Mulroney PM = Peterson/Rae in Ontario

Trudeau PM = Bill Davis in Ontario

When Ontario had PC Bill Davis as Premier, it liked voting for Trudeau as its PM.  Could the same happen again? 

 The whole Liberal in Government at one level and Tories in government in office at another is an outdated paradigm that doesn't take into account the NDP. In fact I'm not convinced it was ever calucated, it just turned out that way because of who happened to be leading those respective parties. 

 If the NDP wins provincially who wins federally, lib or tory, in that paradigm? See with an NDP capabale of conpeteing and winning it no longer makes sense. All bets are off.

And that some people still use that out moded trope is sad.

 The truth is with polls all over the place and the debate yet to happen, anything in this campaign is still possible.

e 

Ugh. Ok, first, please don't accuse people of being Conservative. That kind of slur has no place on this board. In fact, just refrain from those kind of labels altogether -- I'm also thinking about accusing critics of the NDP of being closet Liberals (NDP staffers quoted in major papers, I'm looking at you).

Second, and for the last time, North Report, do not accuse other babblers of being or having sock puppets. I am so sick of telling you this.

Finally, and this is really the most important thing, please learn how to use quote tags so that I don't have to edit half a dozen posts to close or eliminate orphaned tags.

Signed,

Your friendly neighbourhood moderator

P.S. I LOVE ELECTION TIME!

Brachina wrote:

 The whole Liberal in Government at one level and Tories in government in office at another is an outdated paradigm that doesn't take into account the NDP. In fact I'm not convinced it was ever calucated, it just turned out that way because of who happened to be leading those respective parties. 

 If the NDP wins provincially who wins federally, lib or tory, in that paradigm? See with an NDP capabale of conpeteing and winning it no longer makes sense. All bets are off.

 

And that some people still use that out moded trope is sad.

 

 

 The truth is with polls all over the place and the debate yet to happen, anything in this campaign is still possible.

1.  The Ontario pattern of voting one way federally & another way provincially has been in effect for so many decades and through so many Premiers & Prime Ministers that I don't think it can all be coincidence.

2.  I agree that historical patterns change and that they do not guarantee what will happen in 2015, but it's certainly something that political analysts will be discussing over the next year in terms of how it will affect each of the leaders.

3.  The NDP is not likely to win provincially (it's in 3rd in seat & vote projections on 308 right now), but in the unlikely event it did, it would make an interesting test case. 

You make some good points, JKR.  That's why I've been hinting to NR that it's not necessarily going to be a good thing for the Conservatives (provincially OR federally) if Hudak wins this election.  If Hudak starts slashing social services like crazy, it not only could drive his own numbers down over his first year, but also Harper's.

Craig Oliver said something along these lines on CTV's Question Period last week.

 If the NDP wins in Ontario, there is a good chance it will still be in the honeymoon phase by the 2015 election. I will conceed that unpopular governments at one level harm the other, but I don't believe that most people are think one party at one level and another party at another level, it just tends to work out that way.

Lispop.ca has the following seat projection

Liberals - 46

PC - 41

NDP - 20

http://www.lispop.ca/Ontarioseatprojection.html

NorthReport wrote:

This is hilarious as it is so easy to follow the Liberal scrip probably written before election was called.

308 will be running to update the stats too I'm sure.

Another Liberal poll 

[From the link posted by NR]

Ontario provincial vote intention:

¤ 35.8% Liberal

¤ 30.0% Progressive Conservative

¤ 20.4% NDP

¤ 11.9% Green Party

¤ 1.9% Other

The sudden jump in Green support seems anomalous and may be statistical error. Although I suppose it could reflect a general disenchantment with what the other parties have to offer. I know I've been thinking about it. It will be interesting to see if any other polls pick this up.

NorthReport wrote:

This is hilarious as it is so easy to follow the Liberal scrip probably written before election was called.

308 will be running to update the stats too I'm sure. 

Another Liberal poll 

Link

 

Yes, indeed, NR - Eric Grenier does have a new update up this afternoon. 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/05/ekos-shows-sustained-ontario-li...

Current Model:

LIB - 48 seats

PC - 39 seats

NDP - 20 seats

---

But don't worry, Davd Coletto of Abacus says they will be releasing a new poll on that wonderful network Sun News at 5:00 pm today with David Akin.  Maybe that poll will be more to your liking. 

https://twitter.com/Colettod/status/470903176137572352

Ciabatta2 wrote:

Debater wrote:

Trinity-Spadina? 

Perhaps it's not a model that projects each individual seat the way Eric Grenier at 308 does, but rather an overall general seat estimate based on the provincial numbers?

I believe that is the case.  It's also possible that the NDP loses a few (T-S, K-W, Niagara, Davenport) and gains a few (Windsor, Sudbury, Thunder Bay), though I still think there will be few gains and more losses for the NDP.  I also think the Green vote is not an anomaly given disgruntled NDPers and people sick of Liberal scandal but not willing to vote NDP/PC, although it likely won't be as high on voting day.

I think rumours of Rosario's demise are premature. In the last provincial election the Liberals ran Sara Thomson, fresh of a mayoralty campaign where she at one point was polling 13%. This time the Liberals are running whatshisname, who a lot of people have never heard of.

Thomson is actualy quite popular in the downtown core.

Yes, Rosario came within 1500 votes of getting knocked off in the last election, but the Liberals now have a candidate liability, which they did not have before.

A lot depends on if NDPrs who are disenfranchised with the infighting brought on by the usual suspects start going Green, which is a possibility. That said, a number of PCs in the riding will doubtlessly vote strategically against the Liberals.

Of the downtown candidates, I would say Schein is less secure. He is relatively new, and has a fairly low profile.

Rokossovsky wrote:

I think rumours of Rosario's demise are premature. In the last provincial election the Liberals ran Sara Thomson, fresh of a mayoralty campaign where she at one point was polling 13%. This time the Liberals are running whatshisname, who a lot of people have never heard of.

Thomson is actualy quite popular in the downtown core.

Yes, Rosario came within 1500 votes of getting knocked off in the last election, but the Liberals now have a candidate liability, which they did not have before.

A lot depends on if NDPrs who are disenfranchised with the infighting brought on by the usual suspects start going Green, which is a possibility. That said, a number of PCs in the riding will doubtlessly vote strategically against the Liberals.

Of the downtown candidates, I would say Schein is less secure. He is relatively new, and has a fairly low profile.

Rosario Marchese is certainly still in the game.  I don't think anyone should predict his demise.  But the seat projection models keep switching back and forth for Trinity-Spadina.

But I don't know what you mean by a 'candidate liability' for the Liberals.  Han Dong has been campaigning in the riding for some time and I'm told he is doing well with the Chinese community, who afterall, are a significant part of this riding.  Dong is also getting a federal assist from Adam Vaughan & Justin Trudeau.  Vaughan & Trudeau campaigned with him a few days ago and are giving him as much media exposure as they can by mentioning his name on the campaign trail and putting up overlapping provincial & federal signs.

Btw, there aren't many Conservatives in Trinity-Spadina, and I don't think many of them will be voting NDP to try and stop the Liberal.  That doesn't tend to happen too often in practice.  In fact, the opposite may have happened in Toronto Centre last fall.  The Con vote tanked and the Liberal vote went up to stop what they viewed as a far-left candidacy by Linda McQuaig.

Debater wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

I think rumours of Rosario's demise are premature. In the last provincial election the Liberals ran Sara Thomson, fresh of a mayoralty campaign where she at one point was polling 13%. This time the Liberals are running whatshisname, who a lot of people have never heard of.

Thomson is actualy quite popular in the downtown core.

Yes, Rosario came within 1500 votes of getting knocked off in the last election, but the Liberals now have a candidate liability, which they did not have before.

A lot depends on if NDPrs who are disenfranchised with the infighting brought on by the usual suspects start going Green, which is a possibility. That said, a number of PCs in the riding will doubtlessly vote strategically against the Liberals.

Of the downtown candidates, I would say Schein is less secure. He is relatively new, and has a fairly low profile.

Btw, there aren't many Conservatives in Trinity-Spadina, and I don't think many of them will be voting NDP to try and stop the Liberal.  That doesn't tend to happen too often in practice.  In fact, the opposite may have happened in Toronto Centre last fall.  The Con vote tanked and the Liberal vote went up to stop what they viewed as a far-left candidacy by Linda McQuaig.

You are fixated on a very narrow stereotype of "conservative" voters. They do vote stratetically, and as a polling scrutineer on McQuaig's campaign in the Rosedale area, I can tell you that the vote there was not strategic, but in fact absent, as the Tory scrutineer observed -- They just didn't show up in a contest between the NDP and the Liberals.

However, this is a general election, not a by-election, as was the TC race, so the motivation for strategic voting is greater.

There are actually substantial Conservative votes in Trinity Spadina. You yourself have observed that 75% of voters in Ward 20 supported Adam Vaughan in the last council elections, the majority ended up in Mike Yen's court, who was a candidate directly identified with Rob Ford. That is 20 to 25%.

So to begin and end with an anecdote, I can tell you that I have had several conversations with people who identify as Rob Ford supporters, or "Conservatives" who have said they would vote NPD, to prevent Liberals getting in. They are not "religous" t-party Tim Hudak types necessarily with radical faux-libertarian ideology, but traditional PCrs, and small "C" conservatives. They have many reasons to vote ONDP, to keep Liberals out.

Thanks for reminding me of the Liberal candidates name. Thomson required no introductions, or support from the federal party -- that is why there is a candidate deficit.

Abacus likely voters: L 36 C 33 NDP 24

So notwithstanding the machinations of the Group of 34 (the self described group of 34 "prominent New Democrats", four of who as a 40 year meber of the party I have actually heard of), the party's share has fallen a whopping 1%.

Andrea seems to have weathered this storm. The Abacus poll has other optimistic numbers for the NDP. A large number of swing voters still considering the NDP. A soft Liberal vote- only 24% (consisting of Debater and Terry and two or three others) think they deserve to be re-elected. This indicates that about one third of their vote thinks otherwise.)

Then we have today's Northern debate where Andrea seems to have mauled Kathleen.

This campaign is far from over.

nicky wrote:

So notwithstanding the machinations of the Group of 34 (the self described group of 34 "prominent New Democrats", four of who as a 40 year meber of the party I have actually heard of), the party's share has fallen a whopping 1%.

Andrea seems to have weathered this storm. The Abacus poll has other optimistic numbers for the NDP. A large number of swing voters still considering the NDP. A soft Liberal vote- only 24% (consisting of Debater and Terry and two or three others) think they deserve to be re-elected. This indicates that about one third of their vote thinks otherwise.)

Then we have today's Northern debate where Andrea seems to have mauled Kathleen.

This campaign is far from over.

1.  The numbers are not that optimistic for the NDP.  The NDP is in 3rd place in every poll.  It needs to be in 1st or a minimum of 2nd at this point in the campaign in order to win in a province like Ontario.

2.  Of course the campaign is still not over - we still have 2.5 more weeks left, plus the Leader's Debate.

3.  It's interesting to note that the desire for change number here is 51% - 20 points lower than pro-Conservative Ipsos-Reid and their 72%.  Nevertheless, it's not a good number for the Liberals that half of the people think they should be replaced.

4.  If Wynne falls, that won't be good for Horwath - it will be good for Hudak.

5.  Remember the Federal/Ontario voting pattern - if Hudak wins, it could be good news for Trudeau in Ontario in 2015.  So as Lawrence Martin wrote in the column I linked above, don't expect Federal Liberals to be unhappy if Wynne loses.

1.  So Horwath is attacking Wynne more than Hudak, which helps Hudak.

2.  McGuinty skipped the Northern Ontario debate in 2011, and it didn't seem to hurt him outside the North since he came within 1 seat of winning a Majority.  Will anyone care that Hudak missed this debate except a few of the NO ridings?