Prediction Thread - Ontario Election 2014

NorthReport wrote:

Where the courage is, and the abilities are, is where someone who is able to forecast a few months out, not change it, and come close to the actual election results.

Does anyone know anyone in Canada that comes anywhere close to doing that?

In the university level statistics course I took the prof repeatedly stated that "one must remember that surveys are snapshots in time." His simple observation was that pollsters are merely social scientists, not fortune tellers that can foresee events that happen after the survey is completed. So if in tonight's leadership debate Wynne and Hudak say something ridiculous and Horwath says something brilliant there is no way the polls done before the debate could have taken that into account, no matter how able and courageous the pollsters are.

NorthReport wrote:

Too many pollsters are joined at the hip with a political party. And unfortunately it discredits the whole industry.

Most voters now see the pollsters for what they mostly are.

Just an attempt to manipulate voters into thinking either one party or another party has the lead, momentum, etc.

Ever heard of Chomsky?

Nough said.

I would agree that political polling should be heavily regulated.

Maybe the NDP should support a measure to regulate the practices of political pollsters?

Maybe an NDP'er who feels strongly about this issue of the corruption of political polling should put forward a resolution at an NDP convention supporting the regulation and fairness of political polling?

Final call from me.

Liberals – 47 (WIN Trinity-S, London-W, Davenport, Parkdale, Beaches-EY, Etobicoke-L; Lose Kitchener-C, Brampton-W, Brampton-Spring, Brant, Oak Ridges, Ajax-P, Etobicoke-C, Sudbury)

PC – 45 (WIN Kitchener-C, Brampton-G-M, Brampton-W, Brampton-Spring, Niagara Falls, Kitchener-Wloo, Brant, Oak Ridges, Ajax-P, Etobicoke-C; Lose Etobicoke-L)

NDP – 14 (WIN Sudbury; Lose Niagara Falls, Trinity-S, Parkdale, Davenport, Beaches-EY, K-Wloo, London-W, Brampton-G-M)

I can’t seem to shake the feeling that Hudak will squeak into a minority, but can’t seem to see that belief when looking on a seat-by-seat basis.

Squeaker wins:  NDP in Sudbury, Welland and Kenora-RR; PC in Brampton-W, Burlington, Ajax-P, and Northumberland; Liberal wins in Beaches-EY, Parkdale, Ottawa-Orleans, andr Glengarry-PR.

I think some of the surprises will be NDP vote in Kingston, Perth-Wellington (no where near winning but might squeak second), and the Brampton ridings, Liberal vote in Burlington and Windsor-W, PC vote in Mississauga, Rainy River and Sault Ste Marie. 

Disappointments will be the NDP vote in Sarnia, St Catharines and their post-2011 by-election wins, a PC vote in Ottawa, and the Liberals getting 10 percent in some northern/rural rural ridings.

I think we’re going to see a popular vote around PC 38, Liberal 37, NDP 18 percent, Green 7 percent

Brachina; Interesting. Election prdictor already has called 17 for ONDP, with 4 or 5 where the ONDP is in a dead heat. They also called TS Liberal which I think is premature. Even Ekos, whose poll numbers for ONDP are extremely low (more than the margin of error) in comparison to other polls has ONDP climbing over the last few days.

So, I don't see how you are getting 14

At worst, in terms of total seats, I don't see ONDP dropping by more than 1, and possibly even gaining. I don't think ONDP is going to poll below 20%.

Not great news for Horwath who was banking on a breakthrougth. If she doesn't at least gain seats there are going to be serious questions about the leadership after the election is done.

But why these low numbers. What is the justification?

Oshawa is also a possible pick up for the ONDP.

i still say 50 NDP 37 PC 20 LIB.

There has been too much pessimism here.

To add, I have the asme emotional read of this election as Robbie Dee's prediction but I jsut can't seem to make the seats reflect it.

Geez. You people are talking like the election's already over. There'll be plenty of time to wonder how/why the NDP did poorly, IF AND WHEN they actually do poorly. Much like the federal scene, people don't trust the Liberals and don't like the Conservatives. There is still room for Andrea to impress people and move support. I certainly hope nobody at NDP headquarters is talking this way because this is not how you win elections.

Sorry guys. I think this election's pretty much over for the ndp except for the crying. And the bitter recriminations.

Debater wrote:

Most models show the NDP as being weaker in York South-Weston this year than they were in 2011, but who knows.  Perpetual NDP candidate Paul Ferreria is running there again for the 500th time hoping that the wind goes his way one of these times.

But seriously, I don't see the NDP losing all those other seats.  Why would they lose ridings they currently hold & have been strong in during previous elections like Trinity-Spadina, Parkdale-High Park & Davenport if they're capable of winning back York South-Weston?

It's a bit of a gamble, but I think the NDP could win by a nail in York South-Weston, even if they lose Trinity-Spadina and Davenport, and potentially Parkdale-High Park or Beaches-EY. YSW is the second poorest riding in the GTA and it is a riding that went 60%+ for Ford in the last municipal election. This is where Horwath's "bread and butter" platform on issues like reducing the cost of your hydro bill could really resonate with voters. 

I have heard through very solid sources that the ONDP has been concerned for quite some time about their dipping fortunes in the city. Horwath's perceived blue-collar folkiness has not resonated as well with the downtown electorate as the urbane and smooth Wynne. As my source noted, it should not be a surprise that the largest opposition within the caucus to Horwath's decision to vote against the budget was among the Toronto MPPs. 

So let me see... The ONDP has been holding at just over twenty percent of the vote (not counting biased pollsters that we know are habitually inaccurate), a majority of people watching the debates said that their impression of Horwath improved, Wynne and her Liberals just got hit with a new corruption scandal, and there's still six days to go. And you figure it's all over.

Maybe you guys should stay home and leave politics to those of us who have the stomach for it. The thought that you would throw in the towel when things aren't even going badly is just weird.

robbie_dee wrote:

I might have been a little overly pessimistic in my forecast as I can actually see the NDP taking more like 18-20 seats. But they're nowhere near winning this thing and despite Andrea's efforts I think "Liberal corruption" - without a corresponding positive alternative - is a narrative that mostly helps the Cons. Also although I've always voted NDP (and often donated and volunteered) in the past I'm certainly not in the "war room" now and still undecided whether to even support them. I'm thinking of voting Green but it would be strictly a protest vote as I live in Parkdale High Park and I'm not sure about it either because I don't really want the Libs to win my riding. I've just been so deeply unimpressed with the NDP platform I'd have to hold my nose to vote for them.

Greens sadly didn't get the Ford Nation message, and the ONDP did. There notion of environmental reform tracks that which were undertaken by Miller when he as mayor and involve dinging low income people with more service fees on essentials, such as garbage collection and vehicles in order to pay for environmental reform, essentially making the poor pay for Greening the economy. This is a failed strategy, one that does nothing but ensure that the right has an army of voters to back their anti-social cause at the polling booth.

The ONDP plan to reverse regressive taxation and calling for corporate taxes to pay for transit, as opposed to assets sales and privatization of legacy crown corporations still in public hands, which is what the Liberals are doing is, is sadly, the only game in town that both challenges the basic principles of the austerity agenda, but also promotes a sustainable future that doesn't feed right wing populist opposition to taxes.

It might not be a lot, but even a 1% increase in corporate taxation crosses and important ideological Rubicon, which is probably why it is so modest. One step at a time. It will a serious challenge to 30 years of neo-liberal globalizing tax policy, asserting essential government sovereignty over the institutional mechanism that guide commerce, even though it seems so innocuous.

The "progressive left" who are accusing the ONDP of selling out, are oddly taking to task the only party offering to put up any resistance at all to privatization and neo-liberal tax policies and austerity, apparently because of the lack of "big ticket" "socialist" expenditures in the ONDP platform.

In fact privatization and turning around years of corporate tax cuts, are huge issues, and the media is downplaying their significance.

I'm certainly not trying to be overly negative for them, it's just my read of the situation.   I don't have a towel to throw in here.  I actually think it could be worse, seat wise (as low as 11), although I think I dismissed someone who suggested that earlier.  

I feel for the NDP party organizers to some extent because they're going to take the fall for the party's collapse in Toronto.  Some of that is deserved (Platform, style, and champion issues are of course a factor) but some of it not.  I think seat losses in Toronto were unavoidable given that gentrification and house prices are St. Paul'sifying BEY, Parkdale, Davenport, T-S.  The attempt to appeal outside the core vote was astute, innovative, and possibly necessary - but poorly implemented.  As ctrl190 identified, there's a bit of a rift in the caucus.  That's nothing new in any party, but of the 21 MPPs they currently have you could say the Toronto five plus maybe Sattler and Fife are in one block, and the northern/southern thirteen in another, with Singh falling who knows where.

What will be interesting is whether the party lurches left over the next few years in reaction to this result (if it comes to pass), and whether tthe party's northern Ontario ridings start slowly going PC over the next few elections.

What I find interesting about some NDP-inclined voters is that they'd rather vote for other parties or not vote at all than see quite lefty individual MPPs elected on a compromised platform for a compromised party.  That's not a criticism, it's very principled and shows how highly they value their individual voice in the democratic process and voting in general.

Objectively speaking... at the end of the day... voters will always choose the perceived "less risky" political option, from their perspective. And that has been the case in numerous previous Canadian provincial elections. To wit:

1. Manitoba - NDP effectively portrayed the MB PCs as a "risky option". That is, many swing voters feared the impact of a "right-wing" PC gov't and its potential impact upon gov't cutbacks. (Read Tim Hudak here);

2. Alberta - PCs effectively portrayed the WR as a "risky option" - a right-wing option with potential for So-Con nutbars forming gov't;

3. Quebec - Libs effectively portrayed PQ as a "risky option" in terms of paralysing the province with another referendum vote;

4. BC - Libs effectively protrayed the NDP as a "risky option" in terms of the economy and jobs;

And when I heard about Hudak's 100,000 job cuts to the public sector, I knew right away he would be toast at the ballot box. The "risky option" again. The ON PC's are not the "red torys" of Bill Davis and yesteryear. Quite right wing. Spooks voters at the ballot box.

That Hudak dynamic squeezes out the ONDP, unfortunately, at the end of the day.

As I am typing this, CTV National News just reported a Lib-PC tie in a poll. Makes anti-Hudak voters even more nervous about the outcome. I now have no doubt about an ON Lib minority on election day... but with many spooked NDP voters likely switching to the Libs from now and up to voting day, the Libs are also now likely on the cusp of a majority as well. 

My 2 cents.

EDITED TO ADD: The ONDP should still keep most, if not all, of their seats under this scenario. 

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Marchese wrote an op-ed in the Toronto Star defending the decision to pull the plug on the Liberals, noting that most of the key battlegrounds to stopping a Hudak victory were outside the 416 area code.

Marchese may have been the odd person out. It was a very eloquent defense. But my source suggests that the majority of the Toronto members opposed voting down the budget. 

A couple of you have predicted a Green win in Guelph.

Guelph is my home town. I have visited it twice during the election and talked with a few family and friends about the prospects.

The Greens finished third in a couple federal and provincial elections, cresting with about 19% with Mike Nagy in '08. Since then they have faded back to fourth place in both elections in '11.

James Gordon is well liked and grew the NDP vote substantailly last time and almost came second with about a quater of the vote.

The Green riding association split badly over Elizabeth May's machinations and Mike Nagy left the party. I think those scars remain.

Although Guelph is a relatively progressive city it is also quite parochial. Mike Schreiner is a parachute and I do not expect that to play well.

When Nagy ran in '08 he had signs all over the city, particularly in the central neighbourhoods. From my cursory observations last week Schreiner was likley running fourth in terms of signs and fourth is where I expect him to finish on election day.

I'm editing this post to add that unlike when the Greens were at their zenith the Guelph, the University students will largely have returned home. The Greens carried the campus vote before that that will now be minimized.

I've voted NDP all my life. Sometimes hopefully, sometimes resignedly, but usually enthusiastically. This will be the first time I'll be voting NDP reluctantly, even disgustedly. If I didn't have the chance to help re-elect an actual leftist New Democrat I'd probably spoil my ballot.

That's the only thing I can predict with 100% certainty.

Nothing much has changed for me. I stopped voting NDP after Rae, and voted for them in the last Federal election. Its a party that has not represented my views in a great number of years, probably not since Broadbent, and possibly before. I have spoiled lots of ballots and voted for local indpendents.

However, in the upcoming year and now there is a big play taking place in the Canadian politicla scene. Harper and Hudak are right wing idealogues, the Liberals are systemically corrupt, and filled with opportunists. The battle taking place is not simply about political positioning, but even more about preserving the political integrity of our democratic institutions, legality and respect.

The ONDP positions however weak, are still founded in basic social democratic traditions.

However divorced the ONDP maybe from its socialist and social democractic roots, one thing I am certain about is that it is largely a party of people who are sincere in their respect for democracy and legality, and for this reason, I am supporting them now, and in the next federal election.

The Liberals and their corrupt behaviour is only going to reinforces the conditions that empower the right, and therefore, I really only have one choice.

felixr wrote:

Lib 54 PC 45 NDP 11

Lib 55 PC 49 NDP 6

Orangutan wrote:

Mike Schreiner is a well-known and liked food activist in the province who dare I say doesn't have an enemy in the world, whereas Elizabeth May is a tyrant ruling over the federal Green Party.

Hate to say it but, when a man is in charge he is called assertive and take charge. When a woman is in charge she is called a 'tyrant'.

When will these double standards against women in leadership roles cease?

Probably never. And I say this as a man.

terrytowel wrote:

Orangutan wrote:

Mike Schreiner is a well-known and liked food activist in the province who dare I say doesn't have an enemy in the world, whereas Elizabeth May is a tyrant ruling over the federal Green Party.

Hate to say it but, when a man is in charge he is called assertive and take charge.  When a woman is in charge she is called a 'tyrant'.

When will these double standards against women in leadership roles cease?

Probably never. And I say this as a man.

I know people, mostly women, who have quit because of how Elizabeth May runs the party.  This is not about gender, but about an individual.

Andrea and Kathleen are both strong and amazing women.  Not a fan of Elizabeth.   

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Ciabatta, on what justifying your prediction that the Cons will gain in Northern Ontraio at the expense of the NDP? Both provincial and federal parties have been growing there in recent years.

It's a couple of things.  Much of it "ifs", "ands" and speculative analysis.  Or analytical speculation. :)

I've commented previously on PC strength in the north.  Some of that is from the NDP getting tainted with working with the Liberals, who have been getting the rap for letting forestry and minerals processing collapse while fiddling with minor southern issues.  The northern NDP contingentwas very pissed about propping up the Liberals when they cancelled the ONTC.  It's not reflected well on the NDP for some local voters.  There has also been backlash by some voters with regard to local NDP MPPs preoccupation with First Nations issues, although this is unfounded and blatantly racist.

Some of it from the collapse of the Liberals outside of Thunder Bay and Sault Ste. Marie.  Some of it from the increasing domination of the NDP in some of its northern ridings creating an anybody-but-NDP dynamic.  I also have seen in my experience working elections in the north that a good percentage of the NDP vote in some ridings is an anybody-but--Liberal vote.  With the rise of the PCs, that vote doesn't need to go NDP.  In my experience, albeit not in this campaign, I've felt that there was a movement of Libs-to-NDP and NDP-to-PC amongst voters/areas that we felt had specific political leanings from our past marks.  Admitedly, that is anecdotal and riding specific. 

If the NDP tanks in this election, some NDP members will take it as a lesson that the NDP's populist and centrist orientation isn't a hit with the public or the membership.  I think you'll see a reaction with a new leader that leads the party to the left.  I'm not sure how well that will go over in some weaker ridings, particularly since the NDP's northern contingent has been a primary backer of the shift to a more populist, less ideological stance.

How I see it play out is this.  I think you'll see Gilles Bisson retire after this election.  In the last fifteen years he's gone from a 1990 leftover northern yahoo to one of the NDP's most influential MPPs (within caucus and at the leg).  He's been one of the advocates of centre-left populism and is tight with Horwath.  If Horwath goes, so does he.

His domination of his riding has come from hard work, showing up everywhere for everything, being a strong francophone and getting recognized as a really decent guy.  The PC's local 2011 public campaign was essentially "Hey, Bisson's a good guy but his party sucks." (And their private campaign?  Whispering "Gilles is great but only shows up for the First Nations.")  As far as I know, there is no clear successor waiting in the wings locally.  There is some speculation that Charlie Angus wants to lead the provincial party - being anglophone in new federal NDP is a career killer - but he probably won't want to represent the Hearst-to-Smooth Rock belt (may not win it, either) and probably won't want to lead a party that's just lost on his exact type of folksy-leftiness platform.  The PCs held Cochrane South (Alan Pope) before Bisson won in 1990 and also held Cochrane North for 40 years before 1985.  The PCs placed a suprising third there in 2011 and have momentum, organization, money, and a barely deposit-level Liberal party to fight for anti-NDP and centre-right votes.  The mayor of Timmins is a well-respected centrist conservative with improving French language abilities.

Next is Sarah Campbell, well-meaning but underwhelming in Kenora-Rainy River.  She also has a strong PC base, a Conservative MP (Winnipeg Greg), an impossible riding to represent and campaign in, and is another bad provincial campaign away from a loss.  I actually still think the PCs could snag this  riding in this election but can't seem to square that with the local poll results and Hudak's no-show (which, as an aside, was all about not tipping his debate hand and had nothing to do with a scheduling conflict.)

Sault Ste Marie also has a strong Conservative vote (and a federal MP), as does Temiskaming.  Any redistribution of ridings up north will probably divvy up Temiskaing into Timmins-James Bay or into a Nipissing-Temiskaming type riding.  Vanthof will find a Timmins riding hard to win (anglophone dairy farmer = loss) and a Temiskaming-Nipissing riding would likely be too PC.  His base of support is Kirkland Lake south to Cobalt.  Any redistribution will snip that in two.  Mantha I think has a few more elections ahead of him.  His risk is if the Liberals ever come off life-support, he'll have a hard time winning in a riding that includes Manitoulin.

What is sometimes missed about the NDP's success in the north is the collapse of the Liberals up there, just like every election narrative about Chrétien oddly leaves out the fact that he was propelled to victory by a spilt Conservative party.  Just my two cents.

Orangutan wrote:

I took into account: incumbancy, riding-specific polling, local candidate dynamics, regional polling

NDP + 3 seats (Oshawa, Sudbury, Windsor West); -1 seat (Trinity-Spadina)

PC + 2 seats (Brant, Ottawa West-Nepean); -3 seat (Dufferin-Caledon, Etobicoke Lakeshore, Oshawa)

Liberal Gains +2 (Etobicoke Lakeshore, Trinity Spadina); -5 seats (Brant, Guelph, Ottawa West-Nepean, Sudbury, Windsor West)

Green Gains +2 (Dufferin-Caledon, Guelph)

Total:

NDP - 23

PC - 36

Liberal - 45

Greens - 2

 

Here is my reasoning:

Brant - PC candidate is a former MPP who is well-liked in the community and is seen as a red tory.   Strong NDP campaign here will lead to a PC victory. 

Dufferin-Caledon - Green campaign here is very strong.  Many Liberals and NDPers will vote Green in order to stop the PCs.  Many PC supporters are also going Green because of the threath to their farms from aggregate mining.  

Etobicoke Lakeshore - Even though PC incumbent is a popular former Mayor of Etobicoke and Toronto City Councillor (in a neighbouring riding), he is up against a Liberal candidate who is a city councillor for half of the riding.  With Kathleen Wynne's popularity in Toronto, this riding has a better than even chance of going red.  

Guelph - The Greens are having volunteers from across the country phone canvass Guelph.  As with past elections in Guelph, many usually NDP supporters will go Green, as with some PC supporters.  

Oshawa - NDP are polling ahead of the PC incumbent.  Working class riding likely that Horwath is attempting to appeal to.  Also the NDP isnt running another long-time union crony, but a young woman who is a teacher.  NDP for the win here.  

Ottawa West Nepean - PCs are polling well ahead of the Liberals in Eastern Ontario.  This riding is the most suburban of the Liberal held Ottawa ridings.  The NDP is running a strong candidate, a city councillor and former MPP.  Even though the Liberal incumbent is the former Mayor of Ottawa, I think this will go PC in a squeaker.  

Sudbury - Local riding poll shows NDP ahead.  NDP candidate is a city councillor, while the Liberal candidate is an unknown.   

Trinity-Spadina - Yes, Kathleen Wynne is polling strong in Toronto, but the NDP have gotten way less of the overall popular vote and held its seats in Toronto's core.  I find it really hard to believe that the former Mayor of East York Michael Prue or popular local reverend Cheri Di Novo will lose their seats.  Davenport is becoming the new Trinity-Spadina - as long as the hipsters vote, the NDP will hold the seat.  The one seat I think could flip Liberal is Trinity-Spadina.  It was close last time.  Support for federal Liberal by-election candidate Adam Vaughan may cross over provincially.  The riding is also becoming less NDP friendly because of all the condo development.   

Windsor West -  Sadly, racism is still a factor in elections.  It was a factor in why the PC's Ali Charbar lost London West by-election, and it is a contributing factor to the NDP losing in 2011 with candidate Helmi Charif (who later claimed discrimination when he lost the nomination).  Wayne Gretzy's cousin is running for the NDP this time.  Should be an easy win.  

 

Here is my reasoning on other seats and why they won't change hands:

Kitchener Waterloo, London West and Niagara Falls - NDP incumbency, NDP popularity in Southwestern Ontario and strategic voting will keep all three of these seats NDP

Scarborough Rogue River - While I think the NDP has built strong roots into the riding, the Liberal incumbent is popular and well-liked.  The PCs are running unpopular city councillor Raymond Cho (who once ran for the NDP in the 1988 federal election and attempted to gain the Liberal nomination federally a few years ago).  I don't think he'll carry many votes with him.  Liberal hold.  

Thunder Bay seats - Liberal support in the north in concentrated heavily in the Thunder Bay area.  Incumbents both running again.  NDP won't take them this time around.

I think the large majority of your predictions are correct, but I do not see the Greens winning Guelph or Dufferin-Caledon.  Guelph has a solid Liberal base, provincialy & federally.  While the Liberals can lose ground here and Sandals is not as strong as Valeriote is federally, none of the other parties really has enough votes to beat her, the Greens least of all.  I also don't see the Greens winning in Dufferin-Caledon.  The PC vote may drop there, but then again it may not.  Either way, whether the PC wins by a smaller margin, I still think it will be a PC win.

I think Davenport is just as likely to go Liberal as Trinity-Spadina, perhaps more so.  But both of these ridings are close, and the pollsters & seat projectors can't seem to agree on them either.

Thunder Bay-Atikokan is a possible pick-up for the NDP this time actually, along with Sudbury.  Depends on what happens with the Liberal vote in that area of Northern Ontario.  So you can potentially add another seat to your Northern Ontario column.

Oshawa is likely to stay PC, although there is an outside shot for the NDP there.  I think NDP will keep London West & Kitchener-Waterloo, but not Niagara Falls.  That has a good chance of going PC.