Ontario Minority Scenarios

the liberals want voters to blame the NDP for a Hudak govt. Its good for them to let Hudak govern

 on a personal note i wish to go back to 2011 when jack layton won 104 seats and my mom was still alive and didnt have cancer...life sucks now ..thats why i am killing time here...definitely not a paid staff voting for thr ndp in case anyone is wondering

kathleen could havee just said i will let the voters decide. But she wants a strong mandate. She wants a majority and she wont entertain "hypothetical" and she wont try to work with the NDP even if Hudak has only one more seat than the liberal. She also dont support the Hudak minority. She said thetes only two choices lib or con. Wah wah . Self entitled. Arrogant. Repulsive and corrupt

gadar wrote:

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Indeed, the Liberals are the party least likely to impliment electoral reform given that the FPTP system and the strategic voting it encourages is the only reason that party still exists.

Nor are the Cons or NDP for that matter. NDP campaigned against PR here in BC.

Why are you so excited about Prop Rep?

What about simple things like equitable riding population distribution? That is actually doable without major changes, and will eliminate the democratic deficit of urban voters.

Moreover, will proportional representation really result in more diverse representation, or just move the internal intra-caucus debate from an internal consensus to an external public debate, and break up the big tent parties? Sometimes it seems to me that many smaller parties will still have to come to a consensus and form a block in order implement policy as government?

The NDP needs to support the minority PCs for a while, long enough to get the corruption inquiry off the ground.

Once that is in process, but only then, the NDP can reassess their support of the PCs.

Does anyone seriously think the truth will come out if the Liberals are the government? 

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Come on. I know the media is hostile and everything, but if Horwath comes right out and says that she'll make a coalition with the Liberals and they turn her down, how are they going to spin that? There's got to be some limit to how much they can bullshit people. I don't think it will fly.

Rokossovsky wrote:

Moreover, will proportional representation really result in more diverse representation, or just move the internal intra-caucus debate from an internal consensus to an external public debate, and break up the big tent parties? Sometimes it seems to me that many smaller parties will still have to come to a consensus and form a block in order implement policy as government?

Following that logic, since we have FPTP, the NDP, Liberals, and Greens should merge into one big tent party.

JKR wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

Moreover, will proportional representation really result in more diverse representation, or just move the internal intra-caucus debate from an internal consensus to an external public debate, and break up the big tent parties? Sometimes it seems to me that many smaller parties will still have to come to a consensus and form a block in order implement policy as government?

Following that logic, since we have FPTP, the NDP, Liberals, and Greens should merge into one big tent party.

People suggest this kind of thing all the time.

And if the Liberals and P.C.s tie in the number of seats that each party wins?

What happens then?

Rokossovsky wrote:

JKR wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

JKR wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

Moreover, will proportional representation really result in more diverse representation, or just move the internal intra-caucus debate from an internal consensus to an external public debate, and break up the big tent parties? Sometimes it seems to me that many smaller parties will still have to come to a consensus and form a block in order implement policy as government?

Following that logic, since we have FPTP, the NDP, Liberals, and Greens should merge into one big tent party.

People suggest this kind of thing all the time.

But wouldn't that be undemocratic?

I think it's undemocratic that socialists and poverty activists have to be a junior wing within the NDP. I also think it's undemocratic that social conservatives have to be a junior wing within the PC/Conservatives.

My point is, like in the example of the Green Party in Germany, when and if they become part of government, they end up being the "junior wing" within the government, and the net effect is more or less the same in terms of policy outcomes.

Consensus, despite all the ballyhoo about voting, is much more powerful and common force in defining political outcomes, than you wish to believe.

Then why would it not be a good thing for the NDP, Greens, and Liberals to merge and end the problem of vote-splitting?

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Ontario also needs more seats. Its ridiculous the province has the same number of MPPs as it does MPs. Part of the purpose of subnational is closer representation. I hope the NDP argue in favour of a new distribution instead of just automatically adopting the federal arraignment.

Ontario used to have more provincial seats.  That changed in 1995 when Mike Harris  & the PC's came in.  They reduced the number of seats substantially in order to 'save taxpayer's money'.

If the NDP want to commit suicide, there must be a better way than an accord with Tim Hudak.

mark_alfred wrote:

I gave some more thought to the idea of an accord between the PCs and the NDP.  In going over the two platforms, I think it could be possible.  A coalition would not be possible, but I do think an accord might be possible.  Perhaps for 12 or maybe 18 months. So, they could sign an agreement where the NDP would not oppose the PCs on confidence votes for a year or so. They could define the conditions of the accord. I'm not sure if they have enough in common, but perhaps the following could be agreeable to both parties for a year or so:

During the time of the accord:

1. Have public inquiries into the gas plant scandal, eHealth, and ORNGE
2. Each agrees there will be neither corporate tax cuts nor raises
3. take the HST off home hydro bills
4. Establish a Financial Accountability Officer
5. shrink the cabinet from 27 to 16
6. greater use of nurse practitioners for home care/health care
7. Maybe a restructuring of hydro to eliminate duplication and waste in the system to give lower hydro rates.
8. Extra funds for kids with special needs in school
9. ...and perhaps other things

Do this for a year (or 18 months) allowing each side to rebuild their electoral finances, then they'd be prepared for a possible election after the accord ends and the PCs are on their own.

The New Democratic Party would never be able to wash the stench off themselves if they entered such an accord.  The Unions would rightly never support them and they would lose traditional supporters in droves. I for one would ignite my membership card and never support the Provincial Party, ever again. 

I feel the NDP has to be open to all possibilities.  If results can be gotten in an accord, then go for it, I say.  Layton actually was open to the idea of a coalition between the fed NDP and the Cons:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFIY44RtkTI

ProfShawn wrote:

The New Democratic Party would never be able to wash the stench off themselves if they entered such an accord.  The Unions would rightly never support them and they would lose traditional supporters in droves. I for one would ignite my membership card and never support the Provincial Party, ever again. 

So if the NDP gets some of its priorities implemented by working with the PCs without implementing Hudak's agenda (cuts, anti-worker stuff, etc.) that's against the purpose of the party?

Sometimes I wonder why, if the only role for the NDP in the minds of its supporters is a) to be in opposition or b) to prop up Liberals when they fail to win majorities, what is the point of supporting the NDP at all?  Many seem like they would be more comfortable in the Liberal fold.

NDP 'best placed to stop' Tories: Horwath

"Don't let anybody tell you what to think and don't let anybody tell you how to vote," Horwath said.

She took aim at Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne, saying it's "very obvious" by now that the Grits "cannot stop Tim Hudak."

"No matter how desperate or how negative the Liberals get, Kathleen Wynne is not able to stop Tim Hudak," Horwath said.

"New Democrats, in fact, are the ones that are best placed to stop (the Conservatives)," she added.

mark_alfred wrote:

I gave some more thought to the idea of an accord between the PCs and the NDP.  In going over the two platforms, I think it could be possible.  A coalition would not be possible, but I do think an accord might be possible.  Perhaps for 12 or maybe 18 months. So, they could sign an agreement where the NDP would not oppose the PCs on confidence votes for a year or so. They could define the conditions of the accord. I'm not sure if they have enough in common, but perhaps the following could be agreeable to both parties for a year or so:

During the time of the accord:

1. Have public inquiries into the gas plant scandal, eHealth, and ORNGE
2. Each agrees there will be neither corporate tax cuts nor raises
3. take the HST off home hydro bills
4. Establish a Financial Accountability Officer
5. shrink the cabinet from 27 to 16
6. greater use of nurse practitioners for home care/health care
7. Maybe a restructuring of hydro to eliminate duplication and waste in the system to give lower hydro rates.
8. Extra funds for kids with special needs in school
9. ...and perhaps other things

Do this for a year (or 18 months) allowing each side to rebuild their electoral finances, then they'd be prepared for a possible election after the accord ends and the PCs are on their own.

I think the PCs would prefer to go on a vote by vote basis where they would be able to pass bills with some support of the Liberals to cut corporate taxes and cut jobs in the public service and increase class sizes etc....

 The big difference between the PCs and Libs is that the PCs are rightwing, because of pragmatic extremism, and the PCs because of idealogy. Usually the end result is the same, but occasionally the difference matters.

Rokossovsky wrote:

I don't really think there is much difference between Conservatives or Liberals, other than cosmetics.

This reminds me of the people who said there was no difference between Bush and Gore.

Also, to a lot of Conservative voters that Horwath was courting it may not have been an unflattering comparison. Strange as it is, people still love the guy, even many who understand that he can't be Mayor anymore.

He doesn't have the demons, but he doesn't have the charm, either.

Wilf Day wrote:

ProfShawn wrote:

I know that the polls are not always spot on, but the best one for the NDP has them at 24%, the worst around 15%, how then is the statement "the NDP is the only Party that can stop Tim Hudak" anything other than Orwellian calibre Doublespeak.

It refers to riding races: only the NDP can beat the PCs in Oshawa, Sarnia, you name it.

And it refers to the fact the Wynne unwisely said she would hand over power to Hudak if he gets one more seat.

And it refers to the fact that most people want a change. The only way to stop Hudak is to give them a positive change.

Besides, we now have a 30% poll, and two others were at 28% and 26%. Momentum.

Wilf, IPSOS Reid has been publishing Conservative Friendly polls throughout the election, and in 2011 they were dead wrong. Forum and Abacus were closest in 2011, and the new Forum Poll in the Toronto Star shows the NDP below 20%.     Wilf I was there too in 1990 when the real momentum was behind us in the last days of summer, we new there was real momentum, not made up crap by a right wing pollster to install their guy.  I wish the NDP was at 37% and had another kick at the can like we did then, but we don't and if on June 12th Tim Hudak is the Premier we are collectively screwed.  I have three kids, one in Elementary school, one in University and one head to University in another year.  I'm also a public servant. A Hudak win will cost me about $12,000 in the next 5 years in lost Tuition rebate for my two oldest kids, that's just a beginning.  Will my colleagues and I even be employed?  Will our pensions remain in place?  My oldest considers teaching, will there be any teaching jobs left in Tim Hudak's Ontario? Each time the Conservatives, whether Federally or Provincially grab power for a couple of terms, our kids lose.  Federally right now the Cons are destroying the planet and robbing my kids' generation of civil liberties that we had when we were kids. Right after right gone, punitive law after punitive law put in place.   The NDP played a role in installing Harper in the first place (Jack defeated Martin, along with the Kelowna Accord and the Universal Child Care Program, remember!) 

Now here we are, Andrea's ego and the chance to win a  few more seats, possibly position the NDP better leads to her defeating a bundget that was widely supported by Labour.   That decision puts all of our kids futures at risk, just as Jack's decision in 2006 set off a series of unfortunate events.  

Some party people will say, hey it was worth it, we got Official Opposition!  Yep we got OP, in  parliament that has a Government that has implemented Law and Order Legislation, Repealed the Court Challenges Program, Turned us into a Global Environmental Bad Boy, ripped up Kyoto you name it, the series of events has changed Canada for the worse.  So I can't take great pleasure in our temporary Offical Opposition Status Federally either. 

The Left in Canada has to figure out when we are going to grow up.  As we dither and rearrange our furniture, the Conservatives have taken over everything everywhere.  

I'm not a traitor to the party as some folks might accuse me of being (Just at the old 34 who signed the Letter to Andrea weren't disloyal either).  I have watched the Party in Past Elections Publicly strip members of their membership cards at the Provincial Council, very Soviet like, I saw my first public shaming of disenting voices when I was 15 and attended my first provincial council with the old Quinte Prov Riding.  

Anyway, I will leave my rambling there, who knows what will happen tomorrow.  Whatever does happen I hope that we can begin a discussion afterwards of where the left goes from here.  

It's up to the people, ProfShawn.  So, go out and vote Liberal tomorrow if you want.  I however will vote for Andrea.  We'll see which polls are correct tomorrow.  I'm guessing none of them are.  I predict that it will be premier Horwath tomorrow.  And I predict the spirit of Peter Kormos will be calling her to let her know, "Good job!"