Ontario General Election 2014

Rokovossky, as explained above, the NDP vote dropped in the majority of the 107 ridings.  I'm not going to go through them all one by one right now, but you can start looking some of them up if you want.  I may get to them later.

As for Cristina Martins, it's my understanding that she grew up in Davenport, went to school there, and has had a business there.  So she does have connections to the riding.  And the NDP regularly circulates its candidates around to different ridings and plays musical chairs more than either the Liberals or the Conservatives.

Btw, there was such a huge collapse in Federal Liberal support under Ignatieff throughout the GTA in 2011 that it's hard to know what to read into it because it was so atypical.  Many NDP MP's & CPC MP's won seats more because of the Ignatieff collapse than because of their own strengths, and were carried along by the Layton wave.  So it's hard to know whether Andrew Cash in Davenport, Mike Sullivan in York South-Weston, Dan Harris in Scarborough Southwest, etc. won because of their own campaigns or more because of external factors.  We will find out in 2015.

Finally, as has been explained by the journalists, another loss for Horwath is her inflience in the legislature & in Ontario politics itself.  She was a major player over the past year in the minority Parliament.  She no longer has that influence with Wynne.  So it could be aruged that is a far bigger loss than what happened in this seat or that seat.

Plus there is only a year left before they had to go to the polls. It was either pull the plug now, or risk a year from now. And who knows is they would have held at this level of support in a year. The budget will now be passed no matter what. One year will not make that much of a difference on how much power Andrea could throw around this year.

They lost two seats, which they would likely have lost anyway.

I though Andrea summed it up pretty well in her letter of May 2nd, when she said that the continued situation would only give ammo to the right, and it would benefit neither the Liberals or the ONDP.

Of course this message, plus any discussion of what the new riding boundaries will look like, or any of the other factors, or even the fact that the Liberals had every reason to avoid negotiation, as they did by dissolving the legislature without facing a confidence vote in the house was burried in the mainstream press.

The Liberals caused the election. Both parties in fact wanted it for very sound reasons.

It was a good time to take on Hudak. Sid Ryan is an idiot.

Probably not. I like Rosario Marchese. The only reason I am supporting Cressy is because Vaughan is totally unacceptable.

Rokossovsky wrote:

Probably not. I like Rosario Marchese. The only reason I am supporting Cressy is because Vaughan is totally unacceptable.

U didn't vote for Vaughan for City Council?

terrytowel wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

Probably not. I like Rosario Marchese. The only reason I am supporting Cressy is because Vaughan is totally unacceptable.

U didn't vote for Vaughan for City Council?

No.

Debater wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

They lost two seats, which they would likely have lost anyway.

The NDP lost 3 seats, (don't forget Beaches-East York) and nearly lost a 4th (Parkdale-High Park) and dropped in a 5th (Toronto-Danforth).  And that's just part of the 416.  They also dropped in many 416 ridings, 905 ridings, Eastern Ontario ridings, and even Northern Ontario ridings.

Each time this is pointed out, you keep responding with some sort of spin that sounds like it is coming from Horwath's office.

They lost two seats, which they would likely have lost anyway.

They lost one seat, which was likely a result of the campaign dynamics.

They three seats elsewhere because of the campaign dynamics, making them net 4 for the campaign, in comparison to 2011.

Its a net win for the campaign strategy, in other words.

As I said here:

Rokossovsky wrote:

So, in reality, the ONDP lost 2 that they were probably going to lose anyway, and gained 3, losing 1 that they should not have lost, probably as a result of the campaign.

The ONDP effectively improved their standing in number of seats, compensating for ridings they were losing anway, with new seats elsewhere.

Can you at least pretend to have an honest conversation?

Note to self: Debater will deliberately decontextualize statements in order misrepresent them.

Debater wrote:

Rokossovsky wrote:

They lost two seats, which they would likely have lost anyway.

The NDP lost 3 seats, (don't forget Beaches-East York) and nearly lost a 4th (Parkdale-High Park) and dropped in a 5th (Toronto-Danforth).  And that's just part of the 416.  They also dropped in many 416 ridings, 905 ridings, Eastern Ontario ridings, and even Northern Ontario ridings.

Each time this is pointed out, you keep responding with some sort of spin that sounds like it is coming from Horwath's office.

The NDP held all four of their by-elections ridings (somethings most pundits said wouldn't happen). Gates increased his vote by a large margin and Peggy Sattler increased her lead over the Conservative runner-up (her % of the vote did decline a tiny bit, though, and the Libs gained about 6%, but are still a shadow of their former glory there).

The small vote decreases in some ridings in Missisauga pale in comparison to the NDP massive gains in Brampton. Singh increased his vote share to 44%. Considering the NDP was in third in 2007 with a meager 12%, I can't see the result as anything but a huge positive for the NDP prospects in the growing, ethnically diverse 905. Brampton-Springdale is looking to be the NDP's next target s Ghupreet Dhillon increased the NDP vote by 16pp and came within 8pp of unseating the Liberals. If I have a Brampton Liberal (or Conservative in the federal case), I would be very worried.

Oshawa and Windsor are areas of historical strength. However, as I have stated earlier, Oshawa has not been orange for 20 years. Taking back this riding, in my estimation, shows the party may be taking back the working-class vote that drifted to the Cons in the late 1980s and early 90s.

London and Niagara Falls are completely new areas of NDP strength. Niagara Falls has only voted for a social-democratic MPP in two previous elections: 1943, when the CCF almost won a minority and in the 1990 NDP sweep. The Liberal health minister almost lost her seat to an NDP challenger. That large city has been transformed from a Conservative stronghold to NDP-leaning.

The NDP strengthened its hold on the North. I recall someone on this forum warned about the coming Conservative assult on NDP northern ridings - that appears to be on hold for the time being. The Liberals were beaten back in the North true. The only NDP declines were in the Liberal enclaves of Thunder Bay and the Soo.

I agree that NDP prospects in Toronto proper are on the wane, especially in gentrifying places like T-S. Horwath's re-connection with the NDP's working-class, blue-collar roots in Ontario was a necessary move, I think. Ontario's economy, in my estimation, is becoming similar to Britian's. It is being dominated by Toronto - Ontario's London - at the expense of other cities like London, Windsor, Niagara, and Sarnia (i.e. Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield). These are areas where the NDP can grow, as the concerns and needs of these people are increasingly ignored by the Liberals and threatened by the Conservatives.

Demographic changs also favour the NDP. The fastest growing population group in Canada - Aboriginals - are very loyal to the NDP. Liberal grip on new Canadians has also been loosed. The NDP appears to have become quite popular with South Asian Canadians in Ontario, for example.

In short, giving up a few seats in downtown Toronto will be well worth the gains that have been made - and can be improved upon - in Brampton, Niagara, the North, and the Southwest.

The Liberals - well aware of the fate of their counterparts in BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba - will, of course, try to fight these changes. However, I think the NDP is on the upswing in Empire Ontario.

"We must never underestimate our opponents; nor should we forget that the closer we come to reaching our objectives, the more vicious and forthright will their opposition become." - Tommy Douglas, 1952.

adma wrote:

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

In short, giving up a few seats in downtown Toronto will be well worth the gains that have been made - and can be improved upon - in Brampton, Niagara, the North, and the Southwest.

 

THOugh I wouldn't suggest such a sacrifice be permanent, given the symbolism of its being Jack & Olivia heartland...

Good point.

As Tim Harper wrote last month, if the Liberals take away the federal Trinity-Spadina in the by-election, it will be a symbolic blow to Tom Mulcair and could lead to some difficult questions from the press.

So you are right that parties should never ignore their traditional base or take it for granted in the rush to acquire new turf elsewhere.  The Federal Liberal Party took some of its safe seats for granted after Chrétien retired, and it paid the price in the Martin, Dion & Ignatieff years.

Rokossovsky wrote:

the Andrew Cash win, and directly the result of the disorganization of the Liberal camp, due to the sudden decision of the incumbent to resign.

How soon you forget Andrew Cash campaign slogan. Trade your Silva for Cash

And cue the great Ontario Election thread cull. Starting with this one. See you in 2018, suckers!