2015 Federal Election - Potential NDP Pick-ups and Losses

David Young wrote:

As for Ontario, any of the provincial seats that the NDP wins in the up-coming provincial election that they don't hold federally (London West, Kitchener-Waterloo, Niagara Falls) should be considered as well.

Though given the flukey local-factorness of the former two byelection pickups, they may have to be part of a broader strategy (come to think of it, if any of them *lose*, they can run federally).

Essex is a more obviously viable case.

Although some commentators assume that the NDP has nowhere to go in Quebec but down I can for see the potential for gains beyond the 59 seats won in '11 and the 57 it currently holds.

Recent polling trends show a growing lead over the liberals with the Conservatives stagnant and deeply unpopular.

The NDP votes is especially strong among Francophones which will deliver a bonus in seats. Liberal gains are largely limited to allophone seats.

The Bq may well fade from it's current parked poll rating of about 20%. polls consistently show that Bloq voters favor the NDP and Mulcair by huge margins over Trudeau and the Liberals.

And the trump card may be that Tom is vastly more popular in Quebec than any other leader. One headline from a Quebec paper put it nicely: "Mulcair alone on the ice."

I can for see a vote split of NDP 50'%, Lib 23, Con 13, Bloq 12 and between 65 and 70 seats for the NDP out of 78, up three with the new redistribution.

J

Halifax deputy mayor to seek federal seat for Liberals

June 6, 2014

Halifax’s deputy mayor wants to throw his hat in the ring for the next federal election.

Darren Fisher, councillor for Harbourview, Burnside and Dartmouth East, has filed papers with the Liberal Party of Canada to run for the Dartmouth-Cole Harbour riding.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/metro/1212795-halifax-deputy-mayor-to-seek-...

This thread is about what seats may vote a particular way in 2015.  It is dependant upon which MP's, candidates, etc. are running in those ridings.

The article I posted from The Chronicle relates to the race in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, where there will most likely be another close race between the NDP & LPC which therefore relates to the thread title (Potential NDP Pick-ups and Losses).

Here is another news story which relates to the 2015 Federal Election:

Manon Perreault, NDP MP, faces criminal charges

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/manon-perreault-ndp-mp-faces-criminal-ch...

Mulcair has had to suspend Manon Perreault from the NDP caucus today because of these criminal charges (eg. like Harper had to do to Dean Del Mastro).  She is innocent until proven guilty, but unless her trial is done before 2015, Mulcair will most likely want to get a new NDP candidate for that riding.

AC, they are not Liberal press releases - they are articles in the mainstream press, one of which includes a press release from the NDP office, responding to the Manon charges.

And yes, I may post them on that other thread later.  Anyway, I'm not planning to discuss it in detail with you since past history reveals it is not a good idea for us to talk too much.

progressive also means Liberal.  No one person gets to decide what is and isn't 'progressive'.  That term is open to opinion & debate.  The way you treat Liberals as beaneath contempt is not 'progressive' nor is it something that fosters proper discussion here.

A couple of other posters on the other thread (Pondering & kroptokin, I think) said how badly treated they & one of their spouses felt after posting here.  How does the NDP expect to be viewed as one of love, hope & progressive qualities or maintain the Layton Legacy if you lash out at everyone else?

Btw, the NDP caucus is full of Liberals/former Liberals.  Whether it be Francoise Boivin or whether it be Tom Mulcair himself!  Don't you see the irony in your arguments?

And one of the reasons the NDP turns off some voters is because it puts itself up on a pedestal as superior to everyone else as you just did.  You just said that the Liberals aren't progressive but the NDP is.  That's a matter of opinion.  When you say you are more moral and more pure than everyon else, you're kind of like the family values wing of the Conservative/Republican parties.

That's a key issue of tolerance and understanding that is needed on this board - I actually think that's what leads to a lot of the problem here.  Anyone who isn't an NDPer is treated like mud, because they are viewed as less 'progressive' and therefore less moral and less valued in the same way the Conservative family values crowd likes to place themselves on a pedestal.

---

Btw, nowhere above did I say 'Ha, Ha, you're going to lose, etc'.  I added a couple of links to relevant articles that may affect the seats in the next election, and added my own comments on where the vote may go.  That's the whole point of a seat prediction thread.  I see countless predictions above where people are gleefully predicting that the NDP will wipe out the Liberals - even people saying they think Justin Trudeau will lose his own seat.  None of that has any objective outside confirmation from any Quebec analyst, but NDP supporters do plenty of their own boasting.

Debater wrote:

Anyone who isn't an NDPer is treated like mud, because they are viewed as less 'progressive' and therefore less moral and less valued in the same way the Conservative family values crowd likes to place themselves on a pedestal.

No. That is absolute bunk. In my time here, there have been Conservative supporters who were considered well-respected members of the babble community.

You mean left the Quebec Liberal government for not being progressive enough. And of course it wasn't JT serving. He's never served in any government or done anything else that might qualify one to be PM.

Orangutan wrote:

Here is a list of ridings that I think of a very high chance of going NDP:

BC:

+ Vancouver Island North

+ Nanaimo—Alberni (no incumbent) 

+ Burnaby North—Seymour

Both the newly revised Vancouver Island North-Comox-Powell River and Courtenay-Alberni ridings were won by the Cons over the NDP by 4.3% and 3.7% margins respectively in 2011. The current VIN Con MP John Duncan has also now decided to run in the neighbouring Courtenay-Alberni riding.

The problem with these 2 ridings is that they are trending right-ward incrementally over time with the continuing influx of Albertan (and other Prairie and Ontarian) retirees from North Nanaimo right up the east coast of Van Isle to Campbell River.

That right-ward drift was even evident during last year's May, 2013 BC provincial election. All 4 provincial ridings encompassing these 2 fed ridings saw the BC NDP vote share decline in all 4 over 2009. And that was even with the BC Greens not running candidates in 3/4 ridings in 2013 when they actually did ran candidates in all 4 provincial ridings in 2009.

OTOH, the BC Cons ran candidates in these 4 provincial ridings for the first time gaining vote share and, even then, the BC Lib vote share also still went up in most.

A single example of the right-ward drift is the town of Courtenay, which has now been shifted from VIN to CA. In both the BC 2009 provincial election and the 2011 fed election the NDP won all polling stations therein. But during the 2013 BC provincial election, the BC Libs won a batch of polling stations in Courtenay that they have never won before.

On top of that the reinvigorated fed Libs and newly emboldened Greens will also be running candidates here in 2015. Will the Libs take more votes away from the Cons or the NDP over 2011? And where will the Green voters come from? Very important as well. Not to mention the impact that the 2015 fed campaign itself will have. 

The NDP needs to recruit very high-profile candidates such as a mayor or councillor or someone similar in these ridings. Even then it will still be a very tough uphill electoral battle IMHO. 

As for the newly revised riding of Burnaby North-Seymour, it would have been won by the Cons with a 9.2% margin in 2011. Remember that the NDP only won the former Burnaby-Douglas riding just by a ~2% margin each each of the past 4 elections - the Libs coming in 2nd in '04/'06 and the Cons in 2nd in '08/'11. In fact, the fed Libs would have won the new riding in '06/'08 and the Cons in '08/'11.

The problem is the new smaller portion of North Van thrown into the mix - that area has been a strict Lib/Con race with the NDP barely showing. The new riding boundaries will only likely entertain either a Con or Lib win IMHO. BTW, the provincial BC Libs also hold the ridings of Burnaby North and North Vancouver-Seymour on either side of Burrard Inlet.

Current NDP MP Kennedy Stewart has already decided not to run in the riding and has now moved over to the new neighburing Burnaby South riding. BTW, the only potential candidate to step up to the plate so far for the NDP in Burnaby North-Seymour is a 24-year old recent SFU graduate.

I've heard from a solid source that ad exec and former Liberal candidate in the Toronto-Danforth by-election Grant Gordon will give it another kick at the can, either in the same riding or next door in Beaches-East York.

Update: From that same source, Gerrard Kennedy is expected to run for the Liberal nomination again in Parkdale-High Park to try and unseat Peggy Nash. He is up against a few newcomers for the Liberal candidacy. 

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Manitoba:

Both Winnipeg-North and Elmowwod-Transcona are definitely in play. Transposing the 2011 vote to the new boundaries puts the NDP slightly ahead of the Liberals in Winn-North and shrinks the NDP vote slightly (less than 1 percentage point) in E-T.

However, I think E-T will be more likely to go orange in 2015, given the Cons' fall in popularity. Lamoureux may benefit from the Liberal rise, and many of the 26% of voters who picked the Cons in 2011 could go Grit.

However, it is important to remeber that national voting trends may not play out in every riding, as evidenced by Lamoureux's ability to hold Winn-North despite a nation-wide and province-wide (albeit, in 2011 NDP only gain 1 percentage point in MB over their 2008 preformance) increase in support for the NDP along with a decrease in support for the Libs.

As far as loses go, I think Duncan, Ashton, and Martin are all some of the safest MPs in the country.

Isn't the NDP at risk of losing support in Manitoba in 2015?  The Liberal vote is likely to be up, and the NDP vote appears to be going down.  Not sure where the Conservative vote will be yet.  The unpopularity of the provincial NDP government appears to be hurting its federal counterpart, and this is something that PROBE polling has shown over the past year.  I think i've seen NDP supporters on Babble acknowledge it, actually.

Remember last November's by-elections - it was the Liberals who placed 2nd to the Conservatives (and almost took Brandon-Souris), whereas the NDP finished a distant 3rd in both ridings.  Mulcair does not seem to be resonating yet in Manitoba, either.

So in terms of Winnipeg North, if Kevin Lamoreux was able to win the riding in 2010 and then again in 2011 in the worst Liberal election in history, he should have a good chance of maintaining it in 2015 with 4 more years of incumbency under his belt and with what appears to be an increasing Liberal vote & declining NDP vote.  That said, the previous NDP history in the riding obviously means it can't be taken for granted and could obviously still be a close race with a good NDP candidate.

It's also possible the NDP could have a chance at taking back Elmwood-Transcona.  The NDP only narrowly lost it in 2011, and Jim Maloway was a weak MP compared to Bill Blaikie so if the NDP selects a stronger candidate this time, it could improve their chances.  Ironically, the NDP might need to hope for a Liberal increase in the vote in order to split the vote for the Cons and give the seat to the NDP.

Meanwhile, Liberals are running strong candidates in Winnipeg South Centre & St. Boniface, so those are likely to remain Liberal/Conservative races, and the Liberals may even take a crack at giving Pat Martin a closer run this time in Winnipeg Centre.

Btw, I don't get the purpose of transposing boundaries from 2011 onto 2015, since voters aren't going to vote the same way they did last time.  Unless the transposition results in a large vote share change, changes in the 1-5% range probably don't tell us much.

There are many more potential NDP pick-ups after the Ontario provincial election results:

Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Essex, Kenora-Rainy River, Kitchener-Waterloo, London West, Niagara Falls, and Oshawa all voted NDP provincially while having federal Conservative representation.

Plus strong second-place showings in Brampton-Springdale, Chatam-Kent-Essex, London North Centre,  Sarnia-Lambton, and York West shows how all those ridings are in play as well.

Wow, a decade-long member and I've been a Liberal troll the whole time?

Anyway. I agree with Debater that we should be wary of looking too much into the Ontario provincial results to determine Mulcair's prospects, especially in Toronto. The party had a huge TTC ad blitz over the summer with their "I heart transit" campaign. I also think Mulcair speaks to the old city and downtown electorate better than Horwath. 

Has McQuaig confirmed whether or not she's running again in redistributed Toronto-Centre?

What are the demographics? How will they work in favour?

 Is it just me or are Liberals agents exploding onto the scene all of a sudden on rabble?

TheCampaignManager wrote:

Winnipeg North most definitely staying Grit in 2015. The recent expanding of the electoral district is a major benefit to the current sitting MP who has done an excellent job networking with residents in the area for years and the NDP will find it hard to put up a candidate as well received and popular as MP Lamoureux. While 2011 may have been a relatively close election in this riding the demographics have changed siginificantly since the last election and will work in favour of the incumbent. 

http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&docum...

Nope. Changes to Winnipeg North favour NDP, at least according to the last election's results. Under the new boundaries, the NDP would have won in 2011.

What 'massive' demographic changes have occured in the last 4 years in North Winnipeg?

Erin Weir has been [url=http://www.leaderpost.com/news/Weir+named+candidate/9965219/story.html]n... in Regina-Lewvan.[/url]

robbie_dee wrote:

Erin Weir has been [url=http://www.leaderpost.com/news/Weir+named+candidate/9965219/story.html]n... in Regina-Lewvan.[/url]

 I hope he wins, does he have good odds? It would be great to have real econimist, not pretend ones like Harper and Hudak, especially one who still has his soul, running.

 Thanks. I will also say that Noah was a really good sport about losing, with his unamious motion. That shows integirty and good sportsman ship, and honour.

terrytowel wrote:

Is Pat Martin safe in Winnipeg Center? The Cons want that seat BADLY.

Are you joking??? The Conservatives will NEVER even come close to winning Winnipeg Centre - its a poor inner city riding where Tory candidates typically are lucky to even get back their deposit. Its conceivable a Liberal could win there (they won that seat in 1988 and 1993) but the CPC would have to be winning close to 300 out of 338 seats to be winning a seat like Winnipeg Centre.

Because they have money to burn...who knows. The Conservatives cannot win low income inner city ridings with very large aboriginal populations - PERIOD

The Tories have such vast "franking privileges' from their 165 MPs that they can afford to send out their partisan tripe and taxpayers expense to every riding in the country!

If the CPC finished about 30 points behind Pat Martin in 2011 when CPC support was at an all-time high in Manitoba and the NDP was close to an all-time low - not sure how they will ever win it in the future. That seats has only gone Tory once in its entire history - in the 1958 Diefenbaker landslide when the PCs took 208 seats out of 264!