Is Pat Martin safe in Winnipeg Center? The Cons want that seat BADLY.
If there is anything close to an NDP safe seat, it is Winnipeg Centre.
2015 Federal Election - Potential NDP Pick-ups and Losses
Mon, 2014-06-23 19:04
#52
Mon, 2014-06-23 20:33
#53
Is Pat Martin safe in Winnipeg Center? The Cons want that seat BADLY.
If there is anything close to an NDP safe seat, it is Winnipeg Centre.
I thought the safest NDP seat was Vancouver East.
I guess the Cons can dream about knocking off Pat Martin. But the flyers continue to pour into Winnipeg Center
Mon, 2014-06-23 21:18
#54
I believe the redistribution that created present-day Winnipeg Centre took on some previously "hostile territory"--though I can see it more likely to be Grit-targeted than Tory-targeted. As it is, its safety has a fair bit to do w/Pat Martin himself...
Mon, 2014-06-23 21:30
#55
i think we should think about what to say to people who will vote liberal to stop harper, thats the billion dollar question.
Mon, 2014-06-23 21:44
#56
I thought the safest NDP seat was Vancouver East.
Actually, the fed Libs won V-E in both '74 and '93. But those were anomalies.
Mon, 2014-06-23 21:49
#57
I thought the safest NDP seat was Vancouver East.Actually, the fed Libs won V-E in both '74 and '93. But those were anomalies.
The Cons flood tax paid flyers in Winnipeg Center, yet ignore Vancouver East.
Thu, 2014-06-26 23:43
#58
I think the NDP has a real good shot at Toronto-Centre now that the Liberals have nominated Bill Morneau, the former head of the right wing C.D. Howe Institute. Will that play to Regent Park and St. Jamestown? With Rosedale "chopped off" from the new riding boundaries I would love for McQuaig to give it another go.
Sat, 2014-06-28 00:26
#59
Oshawa should be a target. I think Trinity Spadina is no longer a safe NDP seat. Toronto Centre ? Not even Linda could win it
The new Toronto Centre would have gone NDP in 2011.
But what's the point of looking at how seats would have gone in an election that has already taken place?
That was 2011. Next time is 2015. And the Liberal vote will likely be up in most ridings across the country and so using 2011 numbers for various ridings, be it Toronto Centre or Winnipeg North, only tells you the way a seat would go if the Liberals crash down to 18.9% of the vote again like under Ignatieff. And there's no sign of that happening just yet.
Sat, 2014-06-28 00:33
#60
The new Regina-Lewvan riding includes the urban Regina portions of the former Pallister and Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre ridings, both of which were strong NDP areas in 2011 but outweighed by the Conservative rural portions of the respective ridings that have now been redistricted elsewhere. It's clearly the best potential pick-up opportunity for the NDP in Regina and along with the two new "urban" seats in Saskatoon (Saskatoon University and Saskatoon West) and the far-north Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River, among the best potential pick-up opportunities in the province. The other "urban" Saskatchewan seat is Wascana in Regina, which has dormant NDP potential but is currently locked down with Ralph Goodale as the Liberal MP.
But what if the Liberal vote goes up in those Saskatchewan ridings? Mulcair isn't particularly popular in Saskatchewan yet, whereas Trudeau & Goodale have made an effort to spend a lot of time there this year. The NDP winning those seats depends on a low Liberal vote, kind of the reverse situation the Liberals face in Ontario & the Maritimes where the Liberals need the NDP vote to be low in order to take ridings from the Cons.
As for Goodale's seat, I've always assumed the Cons would have a good shot at it when Goodale retires, but I guess it's possible the NDP could win it depending on whether most of the Liberals voting for Goodale are progressive or red tory in nature. Thus far the NDP finishes 3rd there, and the Cons 2nd.
Goodale has just confirmed that he is running again in 2015, so that is good news for now. 
Sat, 2014-06-28 10:14
#61
I agree that the main effect of a stronger Liberal vote in Saskatchewan in 2015 would likely be just to help the Conservatives retain more seats. I hope that doesn't happen. There was a rumour that a former mayor of Regina would run for the Liberals in Lewvan but I understand that's since been denied by the individual. I think Erin Weir would make an excellent MP and would be a front bencher for the NDP if he gets in.
Sat, 2014-06-28 20:07
#62
FYI, over the last few elections the drop in Liberal support in Saskatchewan has all gone to the Conservatives not the NDP - so I assume that if the Liberals get a dead cat bounce in Saskatchewan in 2015 - it will be a lot of blue Grit NDP-haters returning to the Liberal fold - which would HELP the NDP win some seats.
Sat, 2014-06-28 20:11
#63
But what if the Liberal vote goes up in those Saskatchewan ridings? ... The NDP winning those seats depends on a low Liberal vote...
But what's the point of looking at how seats would have gone in an election that has already taken place?
That was 2011. Next time is 2015. And the Liberal vote will likely be up in most ridings across the country ...
If the Liberal vote goes up in Saskatchewan in 2015, it will only result in re-electing Tories. The Liberal base there is so low that a modest increase will net them no new seat. (Only a 2011 Quebec NDP level of wave would make any difference to them.)
In the 2011 federal election, Ralph Goodale was the lone successful Liberal. The second-best Liberal result in Saskatchewan in the 2011 election was 8% -- other than Goodale, not a single Liberal in the entire province even managed to get the 10% threshold to qualify for an election rebate. In Quebec in 2008, at least there were several New Democrats who got past the 10% rebate threshold.
A doubling of Liberal support in any riding would not result in that Liberal candidate coming within 20% of first place in that riding. Debater invites people who post here to imagine that the Liberals go up in Saskatchewan in the next federal election somehow. But Debater writes that New Democrats posting here are being unrealistic in using he 2011 results as a starting place because the Liberals were unnaturally low. That same caution is ignored when Debater posts what Debater imagines. Liberals frequently claim voting NDP is really a vote for the Tories, despite the NDP having at least a decent starting point in many cases.
Let us see if Liberals in Saskatchewan (or even Debater) will be advocating strategic voting to stop the election of more Tories in Saskatchewan by advising Liberals there to vote NDP. Strategic voting is a good idea, but only when it helps Liberals,,,
Sat, 2014-06-28 20:14
#64
FYI, over the last few elections the drop in Liberal support in Saskatchewan has all gone to the Conservatives not the NDP - so I assume that if the Liberals get a dead cat bounce in Saskatchewan in 2015 - it will be a lot of blue Grit NDP-haters returning to the Liberal fold - which would HELP the NDP win some seats.
We're hoping the same thing happens here in South Shore-St. Margaret's, Stockholm.
Had the Conservative vote in 2011 remained the same as their 2008 number, the NDP would have won this seat. However, because so many previous Liberal voters abondoned the Liberals and voted Conservative in 2011, the NDP lost.
Should enough of those former Liberals go back from the Conservatives, they'll lose this seat. But if the Liberals take any votes from the NDP, the Conservatives win again.
In South Shore-St. Margaret's a vote for the Liberals is a vote for Harper, and a vote for the NDP is a vote against Harper!
Sat, 2014-06-28 20:57
#65
FYI, over the last few elections the drop in Liberal support in Saskatchewan has all gone to the Conservatives not the NDP ...
I agree that an improved Liberal vote in Sakatchewan may help the NDP, as Saskathcewan Liberals whpo have abandoned the party since 2004 have disproportionately gone Tory according to every poll I have seen (acknolwedging the lack of reliabililty of reading Saskatchewan Liberal poll results, given the tiny sample size).
It's been a whole since I have posted, but I just wanted to call bull shit on Debater's comments in this thread. As have you, from a different perspecitve on Debater's view of what constitutes reason.
Sat, 2014-06-28 23:35
#66
Is it just me or are Liberals agents exploding onto the scene all of a sudden on rabble?
Yes.
Sat, 2014-06-28 23:37
#67
ipIs Pat Martin safe in Winnipeg Center? The Cons want that seat BADLY.
Are you joking??? The Conservatives will NEVER even come close to winning Winnipeg Centre - its a poor inner city riding where Tory candidates typically are lucky to even get back their deposit. Its conceivable a Liberal could win there (they won that seat in 1988 and 1993) but the CPC would have to be winning close to 300 out of 338 seats to be winning a seat like Winnipeg Centre.
This is very true. I know that seat. The ONLY way the Tories could win is if the Libs ran a candidate able to siphone off NDP votes. In that case, the seat could go Tory. It will NOT go Liberal again. As I said, I KNOW this seat; I have worked several elections in here and its electorate is not interested in voting Liberal.
Sun, 2014-06-29 01:37
#68
Is it just me or are Liberals agents exploding onto the scene all of a sudden on rabble?
Yes.
I agree with Arthur. It is just you.
Sun, 2014-06-29 02:37
#69
I agree that an improved Liberal vote in Sakatchewan may help the NDP, as Saskathcewan Liberals whpo have abandoned the party since 2004 have disproportionately gone Tory according to every poll I have seen (acknolwedging the lack of reliabililty of reading Saskatchewan Liberal poll results, given the tiny sample size).
Zing!
That reminds me of Diefenbaker's old quip about his time in Saskatchewan politics before the 1950s: "Those were the days when the only protection a Conservative enjoyed in the province of Saskatchewan was under the provision of the game laws."
Oh how times change.
Sun, 2014-06-29 15:15
#70
Pogo
I thought the safest NDP seat was Vancouver East.
That didn't stop the Liberals from flying in Bob Rae to spend a day campaigning against Libby Davies in the last election. As part of their focuses attack to unseat Harper
Sun, 2014-06-29 15:48
#71
Is it just me or are Liberals agents exploding onto the scene all of a sudden on rabble?
Yes.
Opps, got that wrong, Bachrina, sorry, you are right. It is clear this board is being flooded by LPC sympathetic posters. Sorry about that. Well, OLDCTV, guess you'll have to call me crazy as well. But that's OK, I'll welcome it.
I agree with Arthur. It is just you.
Sun, 2014-06-29 15:49
#72
I thought the safest NDP seat was Vancouver East.
That didn't stop the Liberals from flying in Bob Rae to spend a day campaigning against Libby Davies in the last election. As part of their focuses attack to unseat Harper
Exactly!
Sun, 2014-06-29 16:17
#73
Is it just me or are Liberals agents exploding onto the scene all of a sudden on rabble?
Yes.
Opps, got that wrong, Bachrina, sorry, you are right. It is clear this board is being flooded by LPC sympathetic posters. Sorry about that. Well, OLDCTV, guess you'll have to call me crazy as well. But that's OK, I'll welcome it.
I agree with Arthur. It is just you.
WTF are you talking about Arthur?
Sun, 2014-06-29 16:42
#74
Is it just me or are Liberals agents exploding onto the scene all of a sudden on rabble?
Yes.
Opps, got that wrong, Bachrina, sorry, you are right. It is clear this board is being flooded by LPC sympathetic posters. Sorry about that. Well, OLDCTV, guess you'll have to call me crazy as well. But that's OK, I'll welcome it.
I agree with Arthur. It is just you.
WTF are you talking about Arthur?
Well, with all this quote stuff, its easy to get things wrong. All I was saying is that I agree with Brachina that this board is becoming flooded with posters who seem very much LPC supporters. That in itself is fine, but I was simply trying to say Brachina was right. I realized after you posted that I mis represented what I had meant; I agree with Brachina. I also thought that your response indicated you thought Brachina was wrong. So, I just had attempted to indicate my agreement with Brachina, and my disagreement with what I thought you believed, that is, that Brachina was wrong about there having being a real and significant increase in LPC apparent supporting posters. I also thought you were implying that Brachina was over reacting or being extreme somehow, and so simply wanted to indicate if I was correctly interperting what you had posted, that I wanted to be considered as being in the same boat as Brachina. I think there is no question that there are signficantly more LPC friendly posters here now and that as a result, it is OK to note that. I mean, I am honest about being a New Democrat, and can't understand why apparent LPC leaning posters don't want to just be honest about leaning that way. I was no way trying to attack you at all. My post wan't an attack. I hope this clears what I meant. Certainly, you are entitled to your sympathies as much as I am. That was all I was trying to say. Again, I say Brachina is right. There has been a signficant rise in appreant LPC supporting or sympathetic posters. And, Brachina was right to note it.
Sun, 2014-06-29 21:51
#75
If the Liberal vote goes up in Saskatchewan in 2015, it will only result in re-electing Tories. The Liberal base there is so low that a modest increase will net them no new seat. ,,
Having just looked at results again, things were even worse for the Saskatchewan Liberals than I thought. Not only did they fail to make the 10% mark in any riding except Goodale's, the Liberals did not win a single polling division in the entire province outside of Goodale's riding in the 2011 election.
Winning one polling division in two different ridings in Sasktchewan would e a step forward for the Liberals in the next federal election.
Mon, 2014-06-30 17:37
#76
Well, OLDCTV, guess you'll have to call me crazy as well. But that's OK, I'll welcome it.
WTF are you talking about Arthur?
Certainly, you are entitled to your sympathies as much as I am. That was all I was trying to say.
Thanks, I guess. For the record, my sympathies are generally with the people who get labelled "crazy". People who call other people crazy - not so much.
And I'm still not sure what the CTV reference is about, but no biggie.
Mon, 2014-06-30 21:26
#77
The only mention of Nova Scotia I have seen in this thread was an early reference to the prospect (no pun intended) of the NDP picking up South Shore—St. Margarets.
But I would have thought the threat of losing the three fine MPs we already have there - given the sorry standing of the NDP in the polls in NS would be the greater pre-occupation.
Mon, 2014-06-30 23:46
#78
The only mention of Nova Scotia I have seen in this thread was an early reference to the prospect (no pun intended) of the NDP picking up South Shore—St. Margarets.
But I would have thought the threat of losing the three fine MPs we already have there - given the sorry standing of the NDP in the polls in NS would be the greater pre-occupation.
The next federal election is a year or more away. Who knows where the provincial numbers will be then. At the same time, the Liberals will probably have to deal with possible low provincial numbers in Quebec (even though a different party) and in Ontario... and probably Nova Scotia as the next Liberal budget will probably be a nasty one.
I would say Megan Leslie and Peter Stoffer are safe considering their personal appeal. Robert may have a tough race depending on who the Liberals run. But he's doing great constituency work, has strong name recognition and is well liked.
I'll check my crystal ball closer to the 2015 election though to give an update 
Tue, 2014-07-01 08:24
#79
I would say Megan Leslie and Peter Stoffer are safe considering their personal appeal. Robert may have a tough race depending on who the Liberals run. But he's doing great constituency work, has strong name recognition and is well liked.
Peter Stoffer [url=http://www.macleans.ca/politics/so-long-peter-stoffer/]may not run again.[/url]
Tue, 2014-07-01 12:09
#80
And being "inner-urban" and all, Megan Leslie could be an easy target for the Justin/AdVaughan Liberals--remember how Alexa nearly lost the seat in 2004...
Tue, 2014-07-01 16:21
#81
I think Megan Leslie is in decent shape for now, and even if Peter Stoffer retires the NDP may still hold a good chunk of the vote there.
However, what is true is that Trudeau has been polling at 50% in Atlantic Canada for the past year and now that the albatross of Ignatieff is gone from the LPC neck, the Liberals are in position to take back a number of ridings throughout the Maritimes, although mainly from the Cons since the NDP doesn't have as many seats in the region.
Tue, 2014-07-01 18:02
#82
I think the NDP's likelier to hold Jack Harris and Yvan Godin than any NS seat save a non-retiring Stoffer.
Tue, 2014-07-01 18:07
#83
1) Spadina Fort-York
2) Toronto Center
3) University Rosedale.
Tue, 2014-07-01 19:10
#84
Aren't Yvon Godin & Jack Harris going to be retiring soon? I thought I'd read rumours in particular on Babble about Harris saying he was retiring in 2015. But St. John's East has not been a good seat historically for the Liberals, so who knows how they'd do even if he was gone. Trudeau is #1 in Newfoundland right now, but that doesn't mean he would be guaranteed to sweep it.
Once Yvon Godin retires, I think the Liberals have a shot to win back Acadie-Bathhurst as it has been Liberal in the past. A strong Francophone candidate with Justin's own connections to New Brunswick Francophones as well as via Dominic Léblanc's presence nearby would present an opening.
The main battles in New Brunsiwck will be in Moncton & Madwaska-Restigouche. These are historically Liberal seats that the Conservatives only won by small margins in 2011 in the Ignatieff collapse and when the NDP split the vote there.
Wed, 2014-07-02 12:00
#85
This summary from the Laurier Institute looks pretty much as I expect the electoral numbers to shape up, heading into the campaign in 2015.
http://www.lispop.ca/seatprojections.html
ie, Libs and Cons in virtual draw with big chunk of NDP seats as third party.
For better or for worse, this scenario would seem to strengthen the "Vote Trudeau/LPC to defeat Harper" message in ridings with Lib/NDP races as plus or minus 10 or 20 seats for the Libs would secure the defeat (or not) of the Harper Gov't, while +/- 10 or 20 seats for the NDP would not significantly affect the end result.
Wed, 2014-07-02 12:05
#86
And being "inner-urban" and all, Megan Leslie could be an easy target for the Justin/AdVaughan Liberals--remember how Alexa nearly lost the seat in 2004...
Remember last year when all of you babblers were poo-poohing the noting that Megan Leslie was vulnerable in Halifax.
She is going to be in the political fight of her life, as Trudeau and the Liberals begin to make inroads in these urban ridings.
Wed, 2014-07-02 12:40
#87
Below is a link that is tracking who is seeking the Liberal nomination in all 338 ridings.
So you will see which Liberals will be squaring off against which Cons & NDP incumbent. Or vice versa.
http://www.liberalreboot.ca/by-par-province/nova-scotia/
And easier link is here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Tholden28/Results_by_riding_of_the_42n...
Wed, 2014-07-02 19:36
#88
The Liberals will be more competitive in Halifax compared to the Ignatieff & Dion days, but it is too early to predict Megan Leslie as being vulnerable.
However, the fact that the Liberals have been polling at 50% in the Maritimes for the past year under Trudeau does bode well for Liberal pickups in many other ridings from both the CPC & NDP. The MP I would most like to see defeated in the Maritimes is Bernard Valcourt. This incompetent fool has been a total disaster on the Aboriginal file and completely insensitive to the needs of the Aboriginal people. This Mulroney-era bumbler was only able to get elected in Madawaka-Restigouche because of the NDP splitting the vote and finishing 3rd, but enough to give the Cons the seat. Same thing happened in Moncton nearby.
Well, these 2 seats that the CPC only picked up because of vote-splitting will be primary targets for the Liberals. Justin Trudeau & Dominic LeBlanc will be doing a lot of work to urge the historically Francophone liberal voters in those ridings to come out & get rid of Harper.
Wed, 2014-07-02 21:07
#89
I believe that in 2011 the NDP won 103 seats and came second to the Conservatives in 107 ridings.
Given your frame of analysis, Debater, would it not be fair to say that in 2011 it was in fact the Liberals who "split the vote"? And in effect,- gave us this Harper Gov't?
Just asking.
Wed, 2014-07-02 21:48
#90
No, but I don't have time to re-state all the reasons why right now. It's been explained here in the past. The NDP went mainly after the Liberals in 2011 (eg. the Layton-Ignatieff moment in the debate) and didn't go after Harper as much. And because they were in 4th place when the election started and had never won a federal election before, they obviously weren't going to be able to do so. They ended up taking down the only party that was standing in the way of Harper. It's not a coincidence that Tories do well when the NDP does well. The NDP doesn't like to admit this, but at least some Tories are honest about it. Tim Powers admitted it this week on Power & Politcs. They rely on a high NDP vote.
In any event, we are now in 2014 and not 2011. And the question once again is who is doing the best job of taking away Conservative seats & votes. I think if you look at the results from the past year, the answer is pretty obvious so far. The NDP has picked up no seats from the Conservatives since the last election or come even close to challenging them in any.
Wed, 2014-07-02 21:57
#91
No, but I don't have time to re-state all the reasons why right now. It's been explained here in the past. The NDP went mainly after the Liberals in 2011 (eg. the Layton-Ignatieff moment in the debate) and didn't go after Harper as much. And because they were in 4th place when the election started and had never won a federal election before, they obviously weren't going to be able to do so. They ended up taking down the only party that was standing in the way of Harper.
Both Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, in key confidence votes against Harper in a minority, either voted with Harper or abstained completely to give him a defacto majority.
Wed, 2014-07-02 22:06
#92
Many Liberals were not happy with that situation, but it's awkward to be the one that holds the balance of power or who is the Official Opposition in a Minority Government (something Mulcair has never had to deal with). But again, the same point remains - the Liberals always kept Harper to a Minority come election time. The NDP said it would beat Harper in 2011, but not only did it fail to defeat Harper, it didn't even keep him to a minority.
Do you remember when Layton said in April 2011 (it's on tape) that "You can vote NDP, and you don't have to worry about a Conservative Majority". Why did Jack say that? It was totally false and I can't forget it because he seemed completley oblivious and irresponsible to the dangers of a Con Majority (which is what we got). Why did he tell people to vote NDP knowing that it was very unlikely he could stop them?
Wed, 2014-07-02 22:52
#93
Many Liberals were not happy with that situation, but it's awkward to be the one that holds the balance of power or who is the Official Opposition in a Minority Government (something Mulcair has never had to deal with). But again, the same point remains - the Liberals always kept Harper to a Minority come election time. The NDP said it would beat Harper in 2011, but not only did it fail to defeat Harper, it didn't even keep him to a minority.
Do you remember when Layton said in April 2011 (it's on tape) that "You can vote NDP, and you don't have to worry about a Conservative Majority". Why did Jack say that? It was totally false and I can't forget it because he seemed completley oblivious and irresponsible to the dangers of a Con Majority (which is what we got). Why did he tell people to vote NDP knowing that it was very unlikely he could stop them?
We live in a Democracy. People will vote as they see fit. I don't see how anyone can complain that people made a decision to vote in a way they didn't want and then blame their failure to win that vote on someone else. Elections are about ideas and campaigns Debater. Come up with the ideas and campaign that people will win people over, and then you don't have to complain about what people like Jack Layton (blessed be his memory) did or didn't do as you imagined he did. And for my money, with the LPC in charge, based on history, things would be no better. Again, Paul Martin budgets, as documented by no one less then MUrray Dobbin, http://rabble.ca/news/paul-martin-he-has-record. Given what Martn ACUTALLY did while in government, I fail to see the difference between him and Harper, and the LPC and the Tories. Sorry, that's just how it is.
What can possible be more foreign to the idea of a democratic franchise then to tell people you have to vote a certain way to supposedly stop someone else. Elections are about choice; they aren't about choosing the lesser of two evils. For my money, I am not sure that is showing the electors of Canada much respect if you one thinks they make choices because they are duped, and not because of choices, they made. That is basically saying one can't trust the voting public to do the right thing, as one sees it. Me, I trust people to make the choice they believe is best for them. If I can't convince them to my way of thinking, its no one else's fault but my own. I accept that I have to take responsiblity for myself. After all, that is what about living life is about isn't it, about taking resposibilities for our own actions?
Win people over, and it won't matter what someone else does.
Wed, 2014-07-02 22:53
#94
Many Liberals were not happy with that situation, but it's awkward to be the one that holds the balance of power or who is the Official Opposition in a Minority Government (something Mulcair has never had to deal with). But again, the same point remains - the Liberals always kept Harper to a Minority come election time.
Again, that is false false false. In every election from 2004-2011, the Liberals bled seats to the Conservatives throughout English Canada. The NDP, on the other hand, either basically held their ground or took seats away from the Conservatives. This was especially true in 2011, where the NPD defeated several Conservative MPs in Quebec.
Thu, 2014-07-03 01:25
#95
Aristotle, we are talking about the 2011 election. In 2011, the NDP did not win a single province outside Quebec, and only defeated 1 Conservative MP (Dona Cadman, Surrey North) outside QC. Almost all the seats the NDP picked up in 2011 came from the BQ & Liberals.
Yes there were Liberal losses in the aftermath of the Sponsorship Scandal and when the Liberals were in the Conservative & NDP crosshairs, but they always kept the Conservatives to a minority until the Orange Wave came along.
Thu, 2014-07-03 01:35
#96
Aristotle, we are talking about the 2011 election. In 2011, the NDP did not win a single province outside Quebec, and only defeated 1 Conservative MP (Dona Cadman, Surrey North) outside QC. Almost all the seats the NDP picked up in 2011 came from the BQ & Liberals.Yes there were Liberal losses in the aftermath of the Sponsorship Scandal and when the Liberals were in the Conservative & NDP crosshairs, but they always kept the Conservatives to a minority until the Orange Wave came along.
The Liberals still bled seats to the Conservatives in 2011, and would have regardless of NDP performance. Still much worse performance against the Conservatives in English Canada than the NDP, which picked up 1 and lost 2 for a net swing of -1.
Thu, 2014-07-03 02:00
#97
Well obviously Ignatieff bombed more badly in English Canada than Layton did, I certainly can't dispute that.
But what should be of concern to the NDP about the 2011 results is that Layton, despite a huge burst of support and a collapsing Liberal leader who was out of the campaign by the final week, underperformed outside Quebec. He actually only won 1 more seat in English Canada than Ed Broadbent did in 1988, despite getting a higher vote share, and despite Ignatieff getting a much lower vote share than Turner.
The NDP was able to attract left of centre Liberals, but not blue liberals or red tories. These voters abandoned Ignatieff and went to Harper, particularly in Ontario. They are voters that are unlikely to ever be attracted to the NDP. Layton couldn't get them and Mulcair doesn't seem to be doing so either. For example, Martha Hall Findlay is one of these types. She's a fiscally conservative Liberal who is quite right-wing on economic issues, and said during the Liberal leadership debates last year that if the Liberals merge with the NDP, she won't be a part of it. Those types would rather vote Conservative than NDP. She even recently wrote a piece in support of the Northern Gateway and criticizing Trudeau for opposing it.
These are the types of voters that make-up the suburbs in this country, particularly in the 905, an area where the NDP finishes 3rd. It will be areas like the 905 that play a big part in determining the next election. Harper practically swept the 905 in 2011, with all seats there going CPC except for the 1 seat that John McCallum of the Liberals held onto. Layton, despite being a popular Toronto MP, couldn't win a single seat in the 905. That's why I don't see Mulcair being successful there since he has less connection to the area than Layton. Even Trudeau, although having a good shot at it, has lots of work left to do there.
Do you see any evidence that the NDP under Mulcair can win in the 905? Keep in mind that just 2 nights ago the NDP finished a distant 3rd even in a 416 riding like Scarborough-Agincourt.
Thu, 2014-07-03 02:19
#98
Both Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, in key confidence votes against Harper in a minority, either voted with Harper or abstained completely to give him a defacto majority.
But that's a fact contrary to Debater's narrative. You can't point that out. It must be proof that the NDP mainly is concerned with attacking the Liberals and not the Tories, and thus being an ally of the Tories. Cuz, if anyone says anything negaitve about the Liberals actual voting record ( as opposed to their rhetorical record), that person must be either a Tory or a Tory ally. At least that is what Debater propounds here regularly.,,
Thu, 2014-07-03 02:39
#99
But what should be of concern to the NDP about the 2011 results is that Layton, despite a huge burst of support and a collapsing Liberal leader who was out of the campaign by the final week, underperformed outside Quebec. He actually only won 1 more seat in English Canada than Ed Broadbent did in 1988, despite getting a higher vote share, and despite Ignatieff getting a much lower vote share than Turner.
The NDP was able to attract left of centre Liberals, but not blue liberals or red tories...
(1) In the 2011 election, the NDP won 44 seats outisde Quebec in the 2011 election while the Liberals won 27 seats outside Quebec in the 2011 election. Yes, it was the NDP that underperformed outside Quebec (I wish I could insert eye rolling here).
(2) So, now Debater draws some undefined definition of "left of centre Liberals" to claim some justification for the next questionable claim to support some explanation. When will the excuses end? Why does anyone here take your constant explanations with any seriousness? You attack new posters (like Minty Stanhope) on her/his first posts, yet make claims that are easy to pull apart and whine when others point to your flaws in explanation/rhetoric.
Thu, 2014-07-03 03:37
#100
But what should be of concern to the NDP about the 2011 results is that Layton, despite a huge burst of support and a collapsing Liberal leader who was out of the campaign by the final week, underperformed outside Quebec. He actually only won 1 more seat in English Canada than Ed Broadbent did in 1988, despite getting a higher vote share, and despite Ignatieff getting a much lower vote share than Turner.
You aren't going to form government with the Maritimes, BC and half of Ontario. You're done.
Thu, 2014-07-03 04:03
#101
But what should be of concern to the NDP about the 2011 results is that Layton, despite a huge burst of support and a collapsing Liberal leader who was out of the campaign by the final week, underperformed outside Quebec. He actually only won 1 more seat in English Canada than Ed Broadbent did in 1988, despite getting a higher vote share, and despite Ignatieff getting a much lower vote share than Turner.
You aren't going to form government with the Maritimes, BC and half of Ontario. You're done.
Who's done? And when? And you left out several provinces there, most notably Quebec, where the Liberals have the potential to pick up seats.
Have you seen any of the numbers or projections out there? You seem to be making some very broad and theoretical conclusions in advance of the actual election.