Your game of thrones script is done.
2015 Federal Election - Potential NDP Pick-ups and Losses
Thu, 2014-07-03 04:05
#102
Sun, 2014-07-06 00:50
#103
Vancouver Centre is definately in play for the NDP. They didn't put on much of a campaign last time and ran someone without much profile but still came close to taking out Hedy Fry. This time it looks like the NDP Centre new democrats are set to nominate a candidate further ahead of time and already have Vancouver Park Board Vice Chair Constance Barnes in the race. She topped the polls in the last too municipal elections. She's kicking off her campaign tomorrow in Emery Barnes Park, which is named after her father, a longtime NDP MLA.
Sun, 2014-07-06 01:57
#104
Definitely taking Vancouver Centre this time. Count on it. And I wouldn't give the Liberals good odds in BC. They're going to be squeezed out in the Con-NDP battleground. Outside of a few ridings with well known candidates they won't be a factor.
Sun, 2014-07-06 02:14
#105
autoworker
Windsor-Tecumseh and Windsor-West are likely to go Liberal, now that locals no longer have a place at the provincial trough.
Sun, 2014-07-06 04:34
#106
Definitely taking Vancouver Centre this time. Count on it. And I wouldn't give the Liberals good odds in BC. They're going to be squeezed out in the Con-NDP battleground. Outside of a few ridings with well known candidates they won't be a factor.
Sorry but that statement is just politically nutty. Seriously. Time to live in real politik for a change. I am on the ground and you have obviously no idea how bad things are on the ground right now here in BC. Firstly, with the fed Libs surging, even here in BC, that means that their Van City proper BC base is now back to pre-2008 levels.
FWIW, the Libs will likely win 5/6 seats in Van City proper in 2015 - taking back Van-South from the Cons and taking back Van-Kingsway from the NDP. Bank on it.
And I am/have been actively involved in 2 south of the Fraser ridings for the NDP since 2000. Dead zones I know.
PS. The only straight BC Con-NDP battlegrounds in 2015 will be the 4 seats on Van Isle (north of the Malahat Pass), Surrey Centre, South Okanagan-West Kootenay and Skeena Bulkley Valley (which Nathan will keep).
That's 7/42 BC seats. Even then both the Cons and NDP will lose popular vote share to both the Libs and Greens. The question then remains... will either the Cons or the NDP lose more net popular vote share to these 2 new upstarts in these 7 BC ridings?
Sun, 2014-07-06 07:00
#107
As long as Hedy Fry name is on the ballot in Vancouver Center, no party will be able to knock her off. She runs ahead of the party in that riding.
Plus the NDP has no history in that riding Federally. Unless you count one year 66 years ago under the CFF.
btw below is the clip that won Kim Campbell the riding of Vancouver Center in 1988. When she shouted down free trade protesters by exclaiming "Why are you afraid to hear me? Why are you so scared?". People loved it and it ran repeatedly on the news.
Go 1:20 into the clip below to see.
http://www.cbc.ca/archives/categories/politics/prime-ministers/kim-campb...
Sun, 2014-07-06 09:36
#108
FWIW, the Libs will likely win 5/6 seats in Van City proper in 2015 - taking back Van-South from the Cons and taking back Van-Kingsway from the NDP. Bank on it.
Why would Kingsway go Liberal? It's gone NDP by big margins the last two elections. It gets even more NDP friendly under redistribution. It's made up of two supersafe provincial NDP seats (including Dix's own) and Don Davies seems to have a pretty high profile. Now maybe if NDP support in BC returned to 1990s levels in BC like getting 11% in 2000, but that would have required a backlash against a hypothetically extremely unpopular provincial NDP government under Adrian Dix...something we do not have to deal with!
Sun, 2014-07-06 10:42
#109
Why would Kingsway go Liberal?
If the Libs get a Chinese candidate with a high profile, it could swing back to them. The largest visible minority group in this riding are Chinese-Canadians at 43%
Sun, 2014-07-06 13:29
#110
The Libs have run a "high profile Chinese candidate" in the last two elections and got crushed both times.
Sun, 2014-07-06 13:48
#111
Fine. I admit I'm being a tad optimistic. But I'm also in BC and I don't see much evidence of this big Liberal "surge". Sure they are resuscitating from their low of 2011, but that doesn't constitute a surge. The latest Angus Reid poll had them at 25% in BC. I expect that number to go down, as Liberal numbers usually do at election time, and I also expect the JT star to fizzle out, leaving people in BC little motive for voting Liberal. Obviously, they'll gain seats from the two they got last time. The Conservative vote will be weaker, giving them a fighting chance in some new ridings, but generally it will only be the star candidates that will attract support. They will regain a lot of strength in Vancouver, but be stagnant elsewhere.
Sun, 2014-07-06 14:41
#112
Why would Kingsway go Liberal? It's gone NDP by big margins the last two elections. It gets even more NDP friendly under redistribution. It's made up of two supersafe provincial NDP seats (including Dix's own) and Don Davies seems to have a pretty high profile. Now maybe if NDP support in BC returned to 1990s levels in BC like getting 11% in 2000, but that would have required a backlash against a hypothetically extremely unpopular provincial NDP government under Adrian Dix...something we do not have to deal with!
Don is a great MP and hopefully he will keep V-K in 2015. It's that dunce Trudeau that seems to be the problem. For example, just before Christmas read about how the fed Libs in Victoria had to change venues 3 times in an attempt to accommodate ever larger crowds. Same thing happened in Vancouver a few days later. Never seen anything like that outside of an election before.
Again, the fed Lib's base of support in BC has always been the City of Vancouver proper and urban Victoria, to a lesser extent. Add in the fact that Trudeau and Harper are battling for best PM numbers in BC with Tom well back in 3rd place. The positive momentum of Jack over the past 4 elections doesn't seem to exist anymore under Tom from my reading on the ground.
The Libs won V-K in '97, 00, '04, and '06. Both Dion and his "green shift" in '08 caused downward pressure on the fed Lib vote in BC in '08 and many '06 Lib voters in V-K moved over to the Cons resulting in Don winning the riding by a 6% margin. The fed Lib vote collapse under Iggy in '11 cemented Don's lead with another chunk of '08 fed Lib voters to moving over to Don relegating the Libs to 3rd place.
That '08/'11 dynamic won't exist anymore in '15. BTW, the City of Vancouver is notorious for having many provincial NDP voters/fed Lib voters. To wit, the community of Kitsilano is a sea of orange provincially yet federally is always a sea of red (albeit that might have to do with the fact that Van-Quadra has always been a Con-Lib race).
Let's look at another redistributed seat in the Victoria area - Saanich Juan De Fuca. Randall would have won the seat by under a 2% margin over the Cons in '11 with the Libs in single digits taking 4th place. BUT - the Libs would have won the riding in '08 by a 2% margin over the Cons. Taking in the fact that the Greens came out of nowhere and almost won Victoria in the '12 by-election, I have absolutely no idea what will happen in S-JdF in '15. A 4-way race perhaps? Very tough nugget to call. Hopefully Randall will hang on.
Sun, 2014-07-06 14:54
#113
If the NDP gets the right candidate, Winnipeg North will go NDP again. It just depends on whether the clowns making up that riding's Executive can get their act together, although, in calling them clowns, I am not including the Federal Riding Association President. Unfortuneatelh, he's only one vote and the amount of "insiderism" that plagues that riding is formidible.
Mon, 2014-07-07 16:41
#114
does anyone have any knowledge of Noah Evanchuk's plans are now that he lost in Lewvan? Are all the urban Regina and Saskatoon ridings up legitimate chances for the NDP?
Mon, 2014-07-07 19:27
#115
The Libs have run a "high profile Chinese candidate" in the last two elections and got crushed both times.
But it was the "Same" high profile Chinese candidate that ran. They need someone that is more popular with the Chinese community.
Though Don Davies does say
"Last time I was a Caucasian man and I prevailed against a Chinese woman," said Davies. "I've always rejected the notion that only a Chinese person can represent Chinese people, or only a Vietnamese person can represent Vietnamese people. Because if that were true then that means, whoever the MP is, [they are] unable to represent most of the riding."
Davies also said his office has bent over backwards since he was elected to help residents in the riding navigate the immigration process.
"I joke I don't run a constituency office, I run an immigration law office," he said. "Eighty per cent of what I do is helping people with their visas or sponsoring their family members."
Wed, 2014-07-09 02:55
#116
double post
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