NDP: preparing for the 2015 election campaign

121 posts / 0 new

Thu, 2014-07-17 19:10

sherpa-finn

The purpose of this thread is to provide a forum of information sharing and debate on how the NDP is preparing (or not) for the next Federal Election. I would hope Babblers would share updates on candidate nominations, financing issues, pre-electoral organizing work being done, insights into campaign strategy, policy and platform issues. All with a specific focus on issues and implications related to Election 2015.

(I appreciate that one year or so before an election, ALL party politics might be considered part of the election campaign. But I hope you get my drift....)

Issues Pages:

Elections

Thu, 2014-07-17 19:18

sherpa-finn

And I will kick off with a question of my own: does anybody know what's up with the nomination process?

In a recent CBC article on-line: The Conservatives say they have nominated more than 100 of the party's candidates for 2015, while the New Democrats have nominated just three candidates, lagging behind the Liberals, who have nominated 50.

Seems a little worrying to me, particularly in swing ridings that warrant a fair amount of lead effort by candidates. Unless of course there are a whole batch of star candidates standing in the wings, waiting to be rolled out to the public in the Fall, when people might be more inclined to pay attention.

Thu, 2014-07-17 21:14

Aristotleded24

[url=http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/not-your-ndp-candidate]Perhaps the NDP has been way too busy focusing on weeding out undesirable candidates?[/url]

Fri, 2014-07-18 08:43

sherpa-finn

A Justin Ling column working from the assumption that if at the end of the day elections are "all about the economy", - how the NDP needs to get its economic ship in order.

"Given that the NDP’s natural weakness is fiscal policy, they need to bolster their offence on that issue. They so rarely do. As such, they are facing defeat again, and again, and again.

The trends are clear that Mulcair is about to fall into the same bear trap.

To avoid it, he needs a full frontal assault on the topic. None of this half-assed ‘Kijiji Economics’ crap, or just lip-service mention of income inequality. Mulcair needs to make Canadians believe that he is the best suited to run the economy. He needs to convince voters that he is better than the other two.

Otherwise, he won’t win. He simply won’t."

http://looniepolitics.com/voters-dont-trust-ndp-economy/

Fri, 2014-07-18 15:57

Michael Moriarity

It's an interesting point. I think Mulcair has looked at the same history as Ling, and drawn a different set of conclusions. He has looked at what the winners, Conservatives and Liberals, have done to earn the trust of the voters, and concluded that it is all about appearing personally competent and moderate, as opposed to looking like someone who might rock the boat in a dangerous way. I think it is more likely that Mulcair is right than Ling, but I guess we'll never know, since we can't run multiple trials of the next election.

Fri, 2014-07-18 19:07

Debater

sherpa-finn wrote:

And I will kick off with a question of my own: does anybody know what's up with the nomination process?

In a recent CBC article on-line: The Conservatives say they have nominated more than 100 of the party's candidates for 2015, while the New Democrats have nominated just three candidates, lagging behind the Liberals, who have nominated 50.

Seems a little worrying to me, particularly in swing ridings that warrant a fair amount of lead effort by candidates. Unless of course there are a whole batch of star candidates standing in the wings, waiting to be rolled out to the public in the Fall, when people might be more inclined to pay attention.

I've been surprised at this, too. The NDP seems much further behind the Conservatives and Liberals in terms of having candidates nominated for 2015. That by itself is not fatal, but combined with the NDP's poor polling numbers and lacklustre by-election results under Mulcair, could be a sign of difficulty.

It could also indicate that Mulcair is not doing an effective job of leading the NDP as an electoral machine. He may be better-suited for Question Period than for the campaign trail or for the world of street politics. Trudeau & Harper seem to have a more instinctual feel for the world of politics.

Fri, 2014-07-18 20:55

sherpa-finn

Debater said: It could also indicate that Mulcair is not doing an effective job of leading the NDP as an electoral machine. He may be better-suited for Question Period than for the campaign trail or for the world of street politics. Trudeau & Harper seem to have a more instinctual feel for the world of politics.

You have got to be kidding. This is not a serious comment and I am loathe to respond to such trolling. That said .... Mulcair has run (and run successfully) in more elections than Trudeau has had hot dinners. And most serious observers readily agree that Trudeau's 'instinctual feel for politics' is actually an instinctual proclivity to put foot in mouth.

What Trudeau has in spades - that neither Mulcair or Harper have - is charisma. (I have seen him work a room a couple of time and and its real. Its not just the hair, Art - its something quite tangible if yet intangible.) The Liberals know this and are betting big time on that quality translating into electoral success. Thus the huge effort the Libs are making to get him out across the country meeting people and creating a buzz.

But the fact is that Trudeau's face-to-face charisma does not readily translate on TV, in the House or behind the podium, where he comes across as young, well-meaning but shallow. "A nice young man" as my mother would say. So the Lib electoral strategy is well set: get Trudeau out on the road to create that buzz, surround him with a competent team in case anyone asks any difficult questions, and get him studying for the debates so he doesn't fall flat on his face and ruin everything.

Fair enough. But this thread is on the NDP - what is - or should be - their (our?) electoral strategy... given what is happening around us.

Fri, 2014-07-18 21:35

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

The NDP needs to get a fundraising strategy worked out and put in action as soon as possible. There is the organizational disadvantage of federation with the provincial parties. Still, the federal NDP needs to be working on building its Internet mailing lists and sending out regular appeals for donations and volunteers.

Sat, 2014-07-19 10:26

sherpa-finn

Geez, a member of the Canadian public who sees a need for more fundraising appeals! You are a fundraiser's wet dream, Montreal58!

Two quick points in response:

- first of all, the NDP fundraising team must be doing something *reasonably* right, given the general upward trend in donations over the past few years. (This is being discussed in a separate Babble thread.)

- but secondly, - now that you mention it, M58 you might have a point. I am a long standing member / supporter of assorted political, community and charitable organizations. And I get a ton of solicitations on a regular basis from most of those groups. But now that I think of it, I get solicited by the NDP relatively rarely through e-mails and never through snail mail (apart from the annual reminder for membership renewal). And what requests I get are almost always tied to election fund-raising (by-elections most recently).

I don't seen any "e-mail blast" style solicitations that the Conservatives do in response to daily news events ... "Dear Supporter - Did you hear what the Supreme Court did today .... send us $5 to fight back for Canadian familiies!"

Makes me wonder whether the NDP has a donor tracking system that is so sophisticated that it knows I would not repond well to such solicitations. Or one so inadequate that it cannot identify prospective donors.

Sat, 2014-07-19 10:41

#10

sherpa-finn

JKR wrote (in the thread on Senate reform): The NDP could put the issue of the need for Quebec's signing on to the constitution on their 2015 election platform. That would probably win the NDP a lot of support in Quebec. The NDP could also differentiate itself from the Liberals, BQ, and Conservatives by supporting opening up Constitutional talks in general to deal with other ongoing grievances such as Senate reform and First Nations issues.

If we are looking for "big ideas" for an electoral strategy, this would certainly qualify as one. I am not confident it is a winning proposition, - particulalrly if its framed around "bringing Qc back into the constituional family" or even senate reform / abolition. But if it was part of an integrated strategy to address aboriginal rights .... well, then maybe we have something that could fly.

Thu, 2014-07-24 21:57

#11

Sean in Ottawa

This is what they have to prepare for:

Girlfriend of NDP MP hired in Montreal satellite office

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/girlfriend-of-ndp-mp-hired-in-mon...

The story is trying to say that the woman was hired because of her relationship with an NDP MP. If true that would be quite a scandal.

But the story is a smear and intended to be read without care. This works as a lot of people will read the story, misinterpret it and pass it on so that there will be the scandal. People will scream nepotism and how bad the NDP. But don't let the facts get in the way.

The story is actually that she was working already for the party in an NDP MP's office and she began a relationship with an MP. She was moved to another workplace so as not to have a reporting relationship with him. Seems like this very common human situation was resolved in the best way possible without job loss and without her reporting to a partner.

But the media wants to make a scnadal so this national enquirer style article got printed in the Ottawa Citizen, a newspaper that used to have at one time some journalistic standards. As low as those standards were they are obviously now gone.

The NDP will have to continue to expect this kind of thing.

Sat, 2014-08-16 18:43

#12

Wilf Day

Nominations beginning in Quebec, starting with Hélène LeBlanc in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun on August 25. Also, Tyrone Benskin declares for Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Sœurs. Quite a few other incumbents have declared, and only one has said she will stand down: Marie-Claude Morin in Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot (she declared last fall that she had been diagnosed as bi-polar.)

Thu, 2021-10-07 20:04

#13

PrairieDemocrat15

Sat, 2014-08-23 14:22

#14

sherpa-finn

Sean in Ottawa wrote the following in the Polling thread, much of which is wholly relevant to the theme of this thread. So I have copied it here:

... I don't think the Liberals have anything over the NDP when it comes to policy. But the NDP has to look at:

1) online presence and social media -- bluntly, the NDP has to stop running dead last in this area

2) the way the leader is connecting-- what he is saying, where, to whom and how. The tone needs to be revised. People still want to see Mulcair questioning, listening and responding rather than talking at them.

3) The clarity of statements. The Liberals provide not much detail as to be expected at this point but we are starting to have some broad policy directions that are memorable. It is easier to list 3-4 policies the Liberals are for and harder to locate the same on the NDP side. There are policy position the NDP could take chooses not to. At this point you should have some parts of the platform reserved and 2-3 representative, strong, specific things you standfor to define yourself. The NDP has not done this. The reserving of all policy ideas for the election gives the impression that you don't have many and can't afford to have even one copied.

4) Perception of leadership-- by this I mean the party not the leader. The NDP has allowed the Liberals to speak first and more clearly on too many issues recently. If the NDP is playing safe they need to stop now as it is not working. Clearly Canadians want to hear this discussion even if the odd mistake is made.

5) Going after Trudeau is a waste of time for the NDP-- the Conservatives will do that. The NDP has the fortunate position that it can leave the attacks to others and simply build a compelling platform and communications. It needs this as it has done a lousy job at this for the last couple years. Many have no idea what the Mulcair NDP stands for.

6) The NDP is running out of time to hold any consultation/forum/public input events. I think that not doing a good enough job on this is why the NDP let the Liberals pass them in the last couple years. In fact the Liberals did what the NDP should have done-- spoke less and listened more for a time. Now that is done the Liberals are speaking and they are being listened to. The NDP is behind a whole step having not reached out enough to listen. It is not impossible to catch up but the start would be a major public forum on what kind of government should replace Harper should happen later this fall. This should be followed with a strong platform. There are a couple themes for such an event: Economic strength and justice, building a more democratic and inclusive process. I would hold two events one on each. The party should then report what it heard without stating what its preferences are. The the party should produce a platform reflecting the product of that consultation. The party has about 9 months as I think we will have a Spring election. The alternative is to squander the opportunity of a generation. Just ask the Ontario NDP how hard it is to get antoher chance when you blow the first one.

7) The party should ask itself if it has been listening to its communications people. If it has then fire them all. If it hasn't then start to listen to them now. The NDP has a communications strategy that is way below the calibre of its opponents. Issues blow up that ought to have been predicted. Opportunities are blown and engagement is poor to non-existant.

8) The party has to decide if it wants to win becuase if it does it should take a week and figure out how to do that. I say a week becuase the reality is there is now no more time for screwing around. It has to be on the job at the start of September.

The alternative of course is Prime Minister Trudeau, head of a majority government and the NDP competing with the Greens for third.

It is clear to me that if the NDP blows this it should blame anyone-- not the media -- not the voters. This is a spectacular #fail.

If Mulcair can provide the right leadership it sure is time to do so.

Sat, 2014-08-23 14:26

#15

sherpa-finn

Sean it appears that you are a communications specialist, - so do you mind if I ask what you see as the inadequacies of the NDP presence on social media? I am on Twitter - where the NDP seems to give as good as it gets amongst the partisan politicos - but maybe I am missing something? (I am less present on Facebook or other social media so maybe there is a whole world out there I am missing. Probably sould ask my kids!)

Sun, 2014-08-24 00:46

#16

Sean in Ottawa

Big question -- several answers.

There is no shortage of NDP supporters-- and quite a few of those doe well on social media I am only speaking of the official leadership.

I actually did a bit of an assessment a few weeks ago.

The NDP official accounts has fewer followers, fewer tweets than any of the other parties including the Greens.

The level of engagement is very low. The tweets are reserved and stiff- as much broadcasting as if they are using social media like nothing more than a newswire which is quite limiting.

Nathan Cullen is one who does use social media well and he provides a contrast to the official lines -- he has a lot more engagement-- conversations.

The timeliness of the posts and their relevancy is another issue-- it looks like there is a lot of vetting and perhaps delays caused by it. Facebook as well is under-used.

Just some quick thoughts.

Sun, 2014-08-24 19:14

#17

Pondering

Sometimes when things don't seem to make sense it's because reasoning is based on faulty assumptions though they may seem logical.

All national parties are going to say their goal is to win nationally. Some pundits assumed that the Liberal goal was going to be a two step process. Regain official opposition in 2015 then win in 2019.

I'm wondering if the NDP executive has decided to focus on holding Quebec while picking up as many seats as possible elsewhere. I'm guessing primary pitches will be aimed at environmentalists, labour, immigrants and First Nations.

Mon, 2014-08-25 08:58

#18

thorin_bane

I use facebook a bit, and I have a twitter account but I hate twitter. I think thats the problem. I like to look at a big picture and twitter just cannot do that . Facebook is OK for putting articles up, not sure if it ever reaches people given facebooks admission of traffic shaping. 144 Characters just doesn't do it for me. That or they put 10 lines up one after another. And I find that annoying. Could be an age thing. I would be more interested to see how the younger Quebec MPs do in this regard, and what effect it has on the french populace. This may be a lot more telling. Also that may be a big one too. Half the Caucus is in another language from the other, so its harder to see the big picture as far as volume of communications from the party as a whole.

If you don't see teh other language post its going to seem like a lot less coverage even if it isn't. I have seen similar debates about Montreal Canadeins viewing numbers. They routinely edge out the leafs, but thats when you combined RDS and CBC coverage. But CbC doesn't care about how RDS does so it only sees leafs 1.8 million saturday night, habs 1.1 Million(on regional stations no less, usually habs are seen nationwide far less despite much greater success in the last 10 years) and disregarding the 1.1 million viewers on RDS-just as an example of langauge issues with regard to the NDP succcess

Mon, 2014-08-25 12:59

#19

Sean in Ottawa

Language barriers are certainly an issue.

Generally Twitter is good for a very wide distribution with hashtags of a short message or a link. When used in combination with blogs, articles it is extremely effective. But it is not stand-alone for developing discussion. For the most part it is an advertisement for a discussion held somewhere else.

People can use twitter to draw attention to discussions being held here and can exchange comments there about what is going on here if they want.

One of the biggest mistakes people have with social media is to use all the tools in the same way rather than choose the right one for the type of communication. Generally you do better using multiple channels rather than restricting yourself to just a single one.

Mon, 2014-08-25 13:38

#20

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Language barriers are certainly an issue.

Generally Twitter is good for a very wide distribution with hashtags of a short message or a link. When used in combination with blogs, articles it is extremely effective. But it is not stand-alone for developing discussion. For the most part it is an advertisement for a discussion held somewhere else.

People can use twitter to draw attention to discussions being held here and can exchange comments there about what is going on here if they want.

One of the biggest mistakes people have with social media is to use all the tools in the same way rather than choose the right one for the type of communication. Generally you do better using multiple channels rather than restricting yourself to just a single one.

Perfect for announcing real time when the ALS challenge was accepted as an example, which Mulcair did. I don't follow twitter or facebook so I guess I am out of touch. I read younger people use snapchat and instagram. I don't know how either of those work.

Mon, 2014-08-25 14:31

#21

Pondering

Everything Sean said. The MSM has no more public duty than a shoe store anymore. They put out what sells.

I just did a search for Thomas Mulcair ALS challenge on youtube and it didn't come up.

Justin's is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vseqQzEex0A

I checked the NDP youtube channel and I don't see it there either so it's no wonder it didn't come up on a search.

I did a google search for thomas mulcair als challenge and the first listing is:

News for thomas mulcair als challengeSFGate

Justin Trudeau Does The ALS Ice Bucket Challenge (VIDEO)Huffington Post Canada ‎- 22 hours ago Trudeau isn't the only federal politician to accept the challenge. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair did it on Thursday, as did Justice Minister Peter ...

I did see The TM video so I know it's out there somewhere. I went looking because I wanted both links to point out the staging but I'm not going to search any harder for it.

P.S. I went looking in the first place to point out the different staging. Does Mulcair sleep in a suit? Does Trudeau look like an "elite". Which one do you find more relatable? Which one looks like he shares your values and understands what your life is like?

Mon, 2014-08-25 17:56

#22

Unionist

Pondering wrote:

I just did a search for Thomas Mulcair ALS challenge on youtube and it didn't come up.

Justin's is here:

You obviously haven't paid your Google bill lately.

[url=http://www.mykawartha.com/news-story/4777366-two-federal-party-leaders-a... all wet[/url]

Mon, 2014-08-25 18:14

#23

Sean in Ottawa

FFS -- in a suit???? Two pics and no video?

Doesn't that tell you something

I did like this video from the previous link

http://deuxhommesenor.telequebec.tv/emissions/20/emission-20/10076/thoma...

Mon, 2014-08-25 18:23

#24

Debater

Let's give both Trudeau & Mulcair credit for each of them doing the Ice Bucket Challenge.

I doubt Harper would have the guts to do it.

Mon, 2014-08-25 18:43

#25

Pondering

Unionist wrote:

Pondering wrote:

I just did a search for Thomas Mulcair ALS challenge on youtube and it didn't come up.

Justin's is here:

You obviously haven't paid your Google bill lately.

[url=http://www.mykawartha.com/news-story/4777366-two-federal-party-leaders-a... all wet[/url]

That link doesn't lead to youtube, the default place to look for the lastest videos you hear of.

I searched for "thomas mulcair als challenge" on google just now and this is what I got, the first link leads to Trudeau's video:

News for thomas mulcair als challengeSFGate

Justin Trudeau Does The ALS Ice Bucket Challenge (VIDEO)Huffington Post Canada ‎- 1 day ago Trudeau says that he's doing the challenge in memory of a friend that died ... NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair did it on Thursday, as did Justice ...

Home News Two federal party leaders accepted Ice Bucket...
Kawartha Media Group‎ - 1 hour ago
National Affairs: NDP no longer hiding frustration with Trudeau
Medicine Hat News‎ - 15 hours ago

Watch both videos from a marketing perspective. If he was going to do it in a suit he should have gone all the way and staged it sitting at a desk. That would be funny.

Mulcair is very photogenic, even more so than Trudeau. He is at least equally charismatic. Mulcair has the best facial expressions and a great sense of humor. I find him very charming.

Concerning Sean's reference to sound bites, "Trudeau: Harper is on the wrong side of history" is a headline that writes itself and communicates so much in so few words.

Niki Ashton released the NDP comment which was excellent but didn't contain an obvious hook.

You can denigrate the idea of marketing in politics but it has always been a part of elections. Communications is much more sophisticated now but crafting a politician's image is not a new concept.

Mon, 2014-08-25 18:55

#26

thorin_bane

I don't want to 'relate' to the people making important decisions. I could care less if they drink coffe, tea, or chocolate milk. I want solid policy. I think him being in the suit just says he doesn't care he will do it anyway even if he hasa suit needing dry cleaning or whatever. I think he should have taken the jacket off. But other than that it was fine.

Wed, 2014-08-27 10:39

#27

jas

Finally someone talking sense. From Megan Leslie:

The NDP needs to actively promote a green sensibility if they're going to get my vote back.

Wed, 2014-08-27 15:21

#28

Sean in Ottawa

I like the look of these little picture templates. Trouble is I just saw one from Mulcair on Twitter encouraging me to "like and share it." On Twitter you "favorite" and on facebook you "like" and how the hell does the leader's office not have someone who knows the language of social media? Makes them look foolish even while they are doing something that otherwise looks great. Otherwise, these simple comments are great and the statement today -- inquiry in first 100 days is the kind of thing we need to hear more of. But get the words right...

good. Need to do better than this. Really.

Embedded image permalink

Wed, 2014-08-27 18:15

#29

thorin_bane

Sean that was likely made for Facebook. I think it has more people on there than twitter. But at least they are finally communicating. Somethign we have been moaning about.

Wed, 2014-08-27 19:15

#30

Sean in Ottawa

I agree but it is digital -- they should have made a twitter version. They should not get this wrong.

But yes they are communicating and with a simple, direct and memorable message which is what was lacking.

Next step is that Mulcair needs to remain the executioner in the House and needs to slice and dice in the debate but for the rest of the time Mulcair has to be a ray of sunshine.You can say how bad things are or you can say how better things can be. Mulcair has to do the second.

I just wrote about this http://rabble.ca/babble/canadian-politics/heres-stephen-harpers-plan-to-... posts 123-124

Fri, 2014-08-29 08:09

#31

thorin_bane

Agreed, the short blurb is sad;y what is needed. While some people like a nuanced arguement, most just want a quick phrase. Tax Cut is a prime example. The most vague thing a politician could say (because it implies nothing and everything depending on where it is applied) is Tax Cuts. But it works. I think most people who want it explained why a plan is good is already left leaning and is looking at overall policy, while those on a hobby horse have already found their niche. Not to be dismissive, but if right wingers are fiscally responsible AND honest, they would not vote con knowing a tax cut would put up a major debt given past conservative governments. Perhaps thats why I have issues with regards to righties. Either they are complete liars and don't accept facts, or very selfish and don't care as long as they get theirs.

Fri, 2014-08-29 13:40

#32

Sean in Ottawa

I think righties are so blinded by their hatred of government that they are immune to facts. Their bias is to limit government as much as possible as they have no trust that it can do anything useful. This bias leads to all the others.

The authoritarian, intrusive and spying nature of the Harper government is likely not that popular with them.

The social conservative, religious and militaristic character of this government is in obvious conflict with its libertarian and right wing side. This is a common contradiction in right wing governments. For me there is no conflict as I reject all of these.

Fri, 2014-08-29 21:37

#33

zerocarbs

thorin_bane wrote:

While some people like a nuanced arguement, most just want a quick phrase.

I can't speak for others, but I need a hook. If a candidate can't voice their platform in a succinct manner, I don't have the patience to sift through their ramblings. I like a nuanced argument, but only on select topics. Throw me a hook, I'll examine the argument. Chow & Horwath are/were horrible on this point.

Fri, 2014-08-29 22:20

#34

kropotkin1951

I always need a Hook as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joF5HOpdstQ

Sat, 2014-08-30 01:16

#35

Debater

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I think righties are so blinded by their hatred of government that they are immune to facts. Their bias is to limit government as much as possible as they have no trust that it can do anything useful. This bias leads to all the others.

The authoritarian, intrusive and spying nature of the Harper government is likely not that popular with them.

The social conservative, religious and militaristic character of this government is in obvious conflict with its libertarian and right wing side. This is a common contradiction in right wing governments. For me there is no conflict as I reject all of these.

But Harper knows that the Conservative base hate Trudeau & Mulcair more. He knows that he can break the principles of libertarianism (not to mention the ethics & accountability he promised in 2006) and that they will still vote for him anyway. The CPC base believe the Kool-Aid they are fed in the fundraising e-mails about Trudeau hanging around with terrorists and Mulcair being a communist. These are the type of people who believe all the garbage they hear on Sun News from Ezra Levant.

Sat, 2014-08-30 01:47

#36

Pondering

This is interesting:

Darn, I put in a picture but it doesn' work.

Numbers are from the abacus poll at http://abacusdata.ca/2014/08/29/harper-mulcair-trudeau-impressions/

Qualities are in order of significance

Numbers are good-excellent/good enough and combined.

I find the numbers really interesting and somewhat puzzling. Trudeau does lead when you look at good/excellent: 5 point lead on values, 9 on ideas, and 11 on attitude. Both Mulcair and Trudeau beat Harper by 5 points on judgement.

When you check out the combined numbers of good excellent and good enough the situation changes dramatically.

Mulcair wins Values by 1 point, judgement by 5 points, tied in attitude and down 2 points in ideas.

Sat, 2014-08-30 01:50

#37

Debater

Which way are you calculating it? ABACUS has already done the calculations and they are listed in the charts.

I posted that in the Polling Thread earlier today, along with the charts that show the tabulations for each category. Trudeau is a net positive overall for his party and has the highest overall numbers, Mulcair is something of a wash for the NDP, and Harper is a definitive negative for the Conservatives.

Justin Trudeau actually wins the Values category, as well as Attitude & Ideas, Mulcair wins the Judgment category, and I think Harper is behind in all areas.

Sat, 2014-08-30 01:54

#38

Debater

Each leader also has their own chart that shows the Net Impact Score by Subgroup. Mulcair is ahead on the Quebec score, as expected. But Trudeau is ahead in BC, Ontario, as well as with Women, 'Flexible Progressives' and 'Union households'.

Harper appears to be behind everywhere except Alberta, and even there his numbers aren't the greatest. Harper leads in the 60+ age category, though. He trails in the other age categories and with both genders.

Sat, 2014-08-30 01:55

#39

Debater

Sat, 2014-08-30 02:46

#40

Pondering

Debater wrote:

Which way are you calculating it? ABACUS has already done the calculations and they are listed in the charts.....Justin Trudeau actually wins the Values category, as well as Attitude & Ideas, Mulcair wins the Judgment category, and I think Harper is behind in all areas.

I find it interesting to drill down a bit farther into the numbers, compare they differently and also look to the specific strengths and weaknesses of each candidate. Abacus ranked them in order of their good/excellent scores. I added the good excellent to the good enough scores for combined totals.

Justin wins values by a lot if you look only at the good/excellent category (47 to 42, Harper has 34.... but when you combine good/excellent with good enough Mulcair has 75, Trudeau 74, Harper 59. I wouldn't say "good enough" is strong enough to be called soft support, but it means people are not polarized against him.

I do wonder about the numbers because I thought many voters still don't have opinions on him so this would have to be a subset of voters. It seems there was no room for "no opinion".

These numbers were not comparative between leaders, they were marked independently. The big news is how far back Harper is on all counts.

I reformatted so hopefully this is better:

Qualities...................Mulcair..............Trudeau...........Harper

Values 42%................42/33............47/27............34/25

Combined...................75................74...................59

Judgement 29%........36/34................36/29.........31/25

Combined..................70.....................65..............56

Ideas 15%..............37/33................46/26..........30/29

Combined.................70.....................72...............59

Attitude 13%...........39/34................50/23..........30/23

Combined................73....................73................53

Sat, 2014-08-30 03:19

#41

jas

Debater wrote:

This is the best picture I've seen of Mulcair. He needs more like that. Doesn't hurt to be handsome. Trudeau currently outcharismas both of them, and gets a lot more face time. Mulcair could work on that. More smiles and warm and funny. Harper always has a pleasant expression but I don't think he competes in the looks dept.

Yes, electoral politics is shallow.

Sat, 2014-08-30 20:08

#42

Debater

Yes, I think that is one of the better photos of Mulcair. I wouldn't call him handsome, because he comes across as a little too intense sometimes, particularly with the beard (leaders in the Western world rarely have facial hair). But Mulcair does look nice in that photo. He looks more engaging and less threatening than he does on other occasions.

I wouldn't say Harper 'always has a pleasant expression'. He usually looks cold & aloof, which is one of the reasons he is a turn-off to voters. Particularly in Quebec & Newfoundland, which have cultures which are more demonstrative & affectionate than what Harper is capable of. I'm also told that Harper was advised to start wearing glasses several years ago because research showed that voters, particularly women voters, found his cold eyes kind of creepy. Heather Mallick aludes to that in her recent column.

Trudeau looks warm, yet confident in that photo. But he usually looks like that. It's natural for him and not put on. He doesn't have to force it or fake it the way Harper does, or have to pose with little kittens on his lap.

Sat, 2014-08-30 20:23

#43

Debater

Pondering wrote:

These numbers were not comparative between leaders, they were marked independently. The big news is how far back Harper is on all counts.

Yes, although Harper's numbers are passable with swing voters, as ABACUS says in its discussion of the numbers. If Harper thinks he still has a shot with swing voters, he may still run next year, despite the bad numbers on the other parts of the spectrum. As the CPC knows, they don't care very much whether Harper is disliked in Quebec, Atlantic Canada or by hardcore Liberals or NDPers who aren't going to vote for him anyway. They care about what the swing voters think, particularly those in the Ontario suburbs.

Still, it shows a downward slide for Harper since the last election. He has negative numbers in every province except Alberta, and as ABACUS says, even there his numbers aren't as high as they once were. Like you say, Harper is behind Trudeau & Mulcair in almost every category except Albertans, people over 60+, and conservative voters.

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Here are some summary statements on the Leaders from ABACUS:

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Mr. Harper has attracted considerably more negative public opinion than either of the other two leaders, and Justin Trudeau has built a notable advantage over the other two.

Conservative efforts to damage the reputation of the Liberal leader appear to have had little of the desired effect.

...

For Mr. Mulcair the numbers offer plenty of encouragement: few are uncomfortable with his values, judgment, ideas or attitude. But his challenge is not only to make more voters warm to him – in fact a bigger challenge is a fight for “share of voice” with the Justin Trudeau.

...

For Justin Trudeau the numbers show that the approach he has been taking has been working. While there is reason to make note of slightly softer numbers on “judgment” the bigger story seems to be that he is connecting with a large cross section of voters who believe he shares their values.

http://abacusdata.ca/2014/08/29/harper-mulcair-trudeau-impressions/

Sun, 2014-08-31 12:34

#44

Sean in Ottawa

As I said befoer -- this is beyond values. The disdain that Harper has shown for Canadians, the country's history and institutions and processes has added a new dynamic. Now Canadians want to be sure of electing a PM who likes them as many do not have the impression that Harper's Canada includes them or that the current PM likes them at all. For this reason the connection factor may trump policy due to Harper's divisive hostile approach. This is where the emergence of Trudeau as a candidate is showing good timing. Trudeau appears joyful and very much a lover of Canadians and all aspects of the country. This issue plays to his strengths. If Mulcair can look more relaxed and natural that will help him. But any moment where he can be made to look angry will be picked up and exaggerated and that remains a problem for him in this particular context. The NDP will have to work hard to drive some policy on the agenda. If they fail Trudeau will have a solid victory.

Sun, 2014-08-31 15:11

#45

Pondering

I'm surprised people aren't paying attention to these numbers

Numbers are from the abacus poll at http://abacusdata.ca/2014/08/29/harper-mulcair-trudeau-impressions/

Qualities are in order of significance

Numbers are good-excellent / good enough on the first line, combined on the second line. When looking at combined numbers Mulcair is in the lead. Good enough is hardly a ringing endorsement but it shows a degree of basic acceptance that can be built on.