Bye, bye Scotland, we hardly knew ya!

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NorthReport
Bye, bye Scotland, we hardly knew ya!

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NorthReport

Another Norway in the making?  

Alex Salmond defends Scotland's ability to manage North Sea oil and gas

Scottish first minister says he was working in energy industry while David Cameron was on 'playing fields of Eton'

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/24/alex-salmond-scotland-no...

DaveW

well .... as if someone circa 1964 said:

now that you have Hydro, bye bye Quebec, you will be gone soon.

50 years later, and counting .... Undecided

NorthReport

 

Scottish independence: Gordon Brown warns of pensions 'timebomb'

Ex-prime minister enters increasingly tight battle over independence as yes campaign gains momentum

In their white paper on independence, Salmond's Scottish National party says all accrued state and public sector pension rights would be protected in an independent Scotland. They acknowledge that all Western governments "need to take account of ageing populations", but they say that such decisions would be better taken by an independent Scotland.

 

Eilidh Whiteford, the SNP's work and pensions spokesperson, claimed that Brown was scaremongering.

"Gordon Brown is simply repeating the same economically illiterate claims the Tories and Lib Dems made over a year ago," she said.

"On this backwards logic, the UK pensions bill is 25 times the value of its oil and gas – making it impossible for the UK to afford to pay for pensions."

"The only new thing in this contribution is that Gordon Brown has finally ended the charade and joined his Labour colleagues in the Tory no campaign.

"Far from relaunching as a positive campaign, this contribution is negative, repetitive and lacks any credibility."


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/21/scotland-independence-go...

NorthReport

Universities quit CBI in protest at Scottish independence stance

Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen say CBI Scotland's registration as a no campaigner conflicts with their need to remain neutral

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/21/universities-quit-cbi-sc...

NorthReport

Right on!

Scottish independence: CBI does U-turn on supporting no campaign

In a boost for independence campaigners, business body promises not play an active role in referendum

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/25/scottish-independence-re...

 

NDPP

Former British Ambassador Says UK Rogue State, Danger to World

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140828/192428303/Former-British-Ambassador-to-U...

"The United Kingdom is a rogue state and a danger to the world, a former British Ambassador to Uzbekistan Craig Murray said.

'The British Government is deeply, deeply immoral. They don't care how many people they kill abroad, if it advances them. Anybody who votes No [to Scottish independence] is voting to support a pathological state and a state prepared to go to war to make a few people wealthy,' Murray said in a speech made ahead of a historic vote on Scottish independence to be held in just three weeks..."

Our 'Dominion's accursed progenitor - obviously the fruit didn't fall far from the tree...

NorthReport

Gee, maybe Haida Guaii could become independent as well. 

Will passports become the future's growth industry?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haida_Gwaii

As Scots Weigh Independence, Wales Takes Note

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/31/world/europe/as-scots-weigh-independen...

kropotkin1951

Vancouver Island has always had people who want to separate.  I think a new coastal nation from Victoria to Haida Gwaii would be great.  Other than the Sunshine Coast and Powell River the Mainland can stay with the rest of BC and Canada. I'd suggest a coastal country from Oregon to Alaska but I know the American view of states separating from their union.

I wish the Scottish good luck in their referendum. I tend to agree that breaking up the UK could have a major effect on the geopolitical scene. If it reduces the amount of money spent on weapons it will be a very positive outcome. 

lagatta

I do hope you feel the same about Québec!

kropotkin1951

lagatta wrote:

I do hope you feel the same about Québec!

I've always thought that the people should decide. The War Measures Act was one of the defining events in my perspective of my country.  I originally worked on the 1972 campaign for the NDP and a large part of my respect for the party came from Tommy Douglas and David Lewis's princlpled stance on Trudeau's heavy handed totalitarian response.

Stockholm

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I wish the Scottish good luck in their referendum. I tend to agree that breaking up the UK could have a major effect on the geopolitical scene. If it reduces the amount of money spent on weapons it will be a very positive outcome. 

Actually Scottish independence would liklely make the rest of the UK more rightwing and more belligerent. The Tories only hold ONE seat out of 56 in Scotland. If Scotland ceases to be part of Great Britain it probably makes it impossible for the Labour Party to ever win another election and the Tories will rule until the end of time. (unless they ever lose to UKIP)

kropotkin1951

What does whether or not the Labour party wins have anything to do with weapons and the UK war machine?  Having a smaller budget to work from might ease some of the bloodlust of all the UK parties.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

The English Tory MP from Clacton-on-Sea who defected to the UKIP is running at 65% in the polls for the by-election. Should he win, he will be the first MP for the UKIP in Westminster. This may be quite frightening news for Scots.

Scotland is generally pro-Europe, and Glasgow is very open to refugees from all over the world. If they see the English wanting to take Britain out of the EU, it gives them an impetus for independence. The English complain about subsidizing the EU and Scotland at the same time. The English working class has been gutted since Thatcher, and they suspect Miliband is no better than Blair.

As far as the English "Left" is concerned, the Labour Party and the Liberals will likely have to combine forces to have any chance of having an effect against the two righter-wing parties. There has been a Lib-Lab coalition before.

The UKIP on the other hand

Ken Burch

Stockholm wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I wish the Scottish good luck in their referendum. I tend to agree that breaking up the UK could have a major effect on the geopolitical scene. If it reduces the amount of money spent on weapons it will be a very positive outcome. 

Actually Scottish independence would liklely make the rest of the UK more rightwing and more belligerent. The Tories only hold ONE seat out of 56 in Scotland. If Scotland ceases to be part of Great Britain it probably makes it impossible for the Labour Party to ever win another election and the Tories will rule until the end of time. (unless they ever lose to UKIP)

The alternative for Scots isn't particularly pleasant, however.  Voting "No" means essentially giving up on being governed by anything other than the Tories or permanently Blairized(i.e.,  Thatcherized) "Labour".  The official opposition to the Conservative government at Westminster has, now and forever, abandoned any support for any real alternative to eternal privatized capitalism.  

If the actual British Labour Party still existed south of the Tweed, it might be different.  But the fight for anything other than the status quo has been abandoned down there by the party that is supposed to be leading it.  Labour will never be for social democracy again, let alone socialism.  It will never be for disarmament again(it's always going to be just as militarist as Blair was from here on in, with no change possible and no debate permitted).  It will never allow green values, and it will never be anti-racist.  

Why SHOULD the Scots settle for nothing but hard Right or slightly-less-hard Right?  And why should they accept forever living at the mercy of an England that refuses to treat them as an equal nation, that imposes reactionary economic and spending policies that go against everything the Scots stand for?

What you're asking of them isn't solidarity, it's masochism.

The UK is going to be right-wing forever no matter what now.  Scotland can't change that by staying it...it can only watch helplessly as all it believes in is strangled.

DaveW

you don't make national Constitutions based on temporary situations,  any more than you voted Yes in QC to get rid of the (Pierre) Trudeau Liberals; voters did that themselves later (although it seems atavistic)

any idea that Scotland is eternally Left or somehow very progressive does not take into consideration the strength of Glasgow and Edinburgh business classes and Scots' cultural conservatism; post-independence, local Tories would likely be very strong;

 Labour right now is a tactical/regional vote for Scots , and might change later; and never bet against new EU member Scotland becoming a member of NATO; quite probable

One more time: I guess close to 60-40 No.

 

 

Unionist

Stockholm wrote:

Actually Scottish independence would liklely make the rest of the UK more rightwing and more belligerent.

Agreed. Which would not be good for the world. But that's not for us to decide.

For similar reasons, I would like Québec to remain in a federation with Canada.

Geoff

Also, in November, Catalonia will hold a referendum that could see the region separate from Spain.  In this case, the separatists are arguing for an anti-capitalist solution to their economic woes.  Should both Scotland and Catalonia separate, perhaps they could join forces.  Scotalonia forever! 

I know this is not quite the topic of this thread, but there are enough parallels to warrant its inclusion in the discussion.  If anyone wants to read more, check out the following website: http://www.cataloniavotes.eu/inici/. 

Ken Burch

Perhaps places like Catalonia and Scotland(and other small countries)could put together a democratic anti-capitalist alliance in Europe that could offer an alternative, ultimately, to EU membership(or force the restructuring of the EU on anti-capitalist or less-capitalist lines).

Ken Burch

Unionist wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

Actually Scottish independence would liklely make the rest of the UK more rightwing and more belligerent.

Agreed. Which would not be good for the world. But that's not for us to decide.

For similar reasons, I would like Québec to remain in a federation with Canada.

And the stupid thing is, Labour could probably have stopped the surge for the "Yes" side if only it had returned to its core values and promised to fight both for the working-class and the not-allowed-to-be-working class in Britain and the true radical values of its Scottish supporters(yes, Scotland does have right-wing elements, but Scottish Labour was always to the left of the English leadership of British Labour...Gordon Brown lost in 2010 because he forgot that).

Geoff

Ken Burch wrote:

Perhaps places like Catalonia and Scotland(and other small countries)could put together a democratic anti-capitalist alliance in Europe that could offer an alternative, ultimately, to EU membership(or force the restructuring of the EU on anti-capitalist or less-capitalist lines).

It's clear the EU has served some countries well, at the expense of others.  Portugal, Spain (with or without Catalonia), Italy, Greece and any other country negatively impacted by the dictates from Berlin should form their own economic union.  Interestingly, Europe would then be divided between north and south, rather than east and west.

Stockholm

Actually the Catalan nationalist party tends to be quite rightwing and pro business

DaveW

yes, Barcelona is a dynamo, relatively speaking;

 it is as if Montreal were the most dynamic business city in Canada and QC had the biggest job growth and corporate business base... Catalonia often talks about departing because it is paying the equivalent of equalization payments to poorer regions, unlike Scotland and Quebec which are net beneficiaries of central Govt spending....

kropotkin1951

There is the Basque nation but given it exists across two borders it is more like the Kurdish nation.  I wonder what would happen if the people of the Basque regions in both Spain and France had a referendum to form their own country? I suspect it would be a yes vote.

DaveW

no reason to match nation and States everywhere;

what if within the Basque territory other groups called temselves nations, too? do they also separate and form States?

kropotkin1951

DaveW wrote:

no reason to match nation and States everywhere;

what if within the Basque territory other groups called temselves nations, too? do they also separate and form States?

I guess using your logic we only need one country.

6079_Smith_W

DaveW wrote:

what if within the Basque territory other groups called temselves nations, too? do they also separate and form States?

Except that, no slight to the Basque or any other culture struggling for autonomy, but it is pretty clear in British history.

Scotland was very definitely its own nation before they shared monarchs, and before the later Acts of Union. Why do you think the United Kingdom is called the United Kingdom in the first place, and how all those funny lines got on that flag of theirs?

 

Stockholm

In fact England, Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland are each considered "countries" within the United Kingdom

JKR

Shock new poll says Scots set to vote yes to independence; The Guardian

Quote:
'No' campaign to offer radical deal as latest figures show 51-49% backing for end of the union

 

The people of Scotland are to be offered a historic opportunity to devise a federal future for their country before next year's general election, it emerged on Saturday night, as a shock new poll gave the campaign for independence a narrow lead for the first time.

Amid signs of panic and recrimination among unionist ranks about the prospects of a yes vote on 18 September, the Observer has learned that a devolution announcement designed to halt the nationalist bandwagon is due to be made within days by the anti-independence camp.

The plan, in the event of a no vote, is that people from all parts of Scottish society – rather than just politicians – would be invited to take part in a Scottish conference or convention that would decide on further large-scale transfers of power from London to Holyrood.

A poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times sent shockwaves through the political establishment north and south of the border as it showed the yes camp had 51% to 49% for no, excluding the don't knows. Better Together leader Alistair Darling said: "These polls can and must now serve as a wake-up call to anyone who thought the referendum was a foregone conclusion."

Aristotleded24

DaveW wrote:
any idea that Scotland is eternally Left or somehow very progressive does not take into consideration the strength of Glasgow and Edinburgh business classes and Scots' cultural conservatism; post-independence, local Tories would likely be very strong;

Yup, it's never wise to count on any region to stay left or stay right. We all remember the talk of Americans wanting to move to more left-wing Canada in 2004, only to watch Canada elect a Harper majority 7 years later. We also know that Quebec is considered to be the most left-wing province in Canada, yet the Liberals just won a massive landslide, and the CAQ is on the rise.

This is not to say one way or another how the Scots should vote, but creating a "permanent" right-wing or left-wing area should never play into that decision.

cco

With England about to offer a Meech Lake-type deal to Scotland, the Scots should look to Canadian history to see what "a no vote is a vote for change" really means. If Scotland votes no, the first thing Westminster will do is repeal devolution and dissolve the Scottish parliament so it can never happen again (something I'm sure Trudeau wished he could do with Québec).

Stockholm

That is the most ridiculous theory I've ever heard of...there is ZERO chance that any British government would ever repeal devolution. Remember that Scotland voted Yes in a referendum to have devolution in the first place - getting rid of it would involve getting Scots to vote Yes in another referendum to get rid of their own legislature - never gonna happen.

Its also vastly easier to offer a Meech Lake deal to Scotland...(mind you there are no linguistic issues in Scotland and that removes about 99% of the poison pills we have in Canada) since in the UK all it takes to gove a region more powers is a simple vote of Parliament - no need to get ratification from 10 provincial legislatures. I suspect that the Tories and Labour and the LibDems would all jointly agree on a package and it would sail throiugh the Commons almost unanimously

cco

Devolution is also just a law (and a fairly recent one) -- there's nothing preventing Westminster from repealing it without a referendum. What's Scotland going to do, not vote for the Tories? It's not like other countries will get on the UK's case about it. Canada already wrote most of the speeches they can use; just change a word or two here and there. "Labour's shortsighted devolution policy allowed some Scottish fanatics to get within a hair of breaking up our country. No responsible government could allow that to happen again." Why do you expect England's politicians to be any less cynically manipulative than Canada's? Scotland has embarrassed the hell out of them. They're not going to give it a second kick at the can.

Stockholm

There is actually quote a lot to prevent the British government from eliminating the Scottish assembly. As you may recall, the Tories do not have a majority right now and their coalition partners the LibDems have a lot of MPs from Scotland...including several cabinet ministers. The House of Lords also routinely rejects laws from the House fo Commons that seem too extreme...also there are wayy feweer whipped votes at Westminster than in Ottawa and many, many Tory MPs (along with 100% of Labour, LibDem and small party MPs) would never go along with that - its a totally absurd hypotheses.

There would be no need to eliminate the Scottish assembly - that would likely lead to a civil war...if Westminster really wanted to play "hard ball" they could simply say that Scotland has spoken by voting NO and that no future referendum will be recognized or conferred any legitimacy. Case closed.

Realistically there wont be another referendum in our lifetimes. The Scottish assembly is elected by proportional representation and its highly unlikely you will see another pro-independence party winning over 50% in an election and Salmond himself has said no further referendum for a generation.

cco

The House of Lords has only delaying powers, not rejecting ones -- and it uses them mostly on laws that threaten to make the House of Lords more democratic. (According to their own report on the matter, Scottish Lords could stay in the House even after independence, since life peerages aren't granted on a geographical basis, but due to wealth and patronage.)

The idea there would be a civil war from the repeal of devolution is ridiculous. The closest Canada got was a kidnapping and a few mailbox bombs, and that was back in the 70s. There is no armed group demanding Scottish devolution. When Blair granted it, it was an electoral favour, not the response to mobs marching in the street. The most that would happen is Scotland voting for the SNP in Westminster elections for a few years -- and they'd get the same talking points we do in Canada about "putting themselves in permanent opposition".

lagatta

Catalunya is also in Spain and France, but the portion in France is smaller than is the case for Euskadi. The parts of Catalonia in the Spanish and French states, as well as Andorra are the Països catalans.

I don't believe in fetishing state forms. Québec and the Indigenous nations are nations, whether or not they were ever "sovereign states" in the classic Western sense (I think a strong case could also be made for Acadia and Newfoundland). There are also states that aren't not nations; certainly the Vatican springs to mind, but there may be others.

lagatta
Stockholm

cco wrote:

The idea there would be a civil war from the repeal of devolution is ridiculous. The closest Canada got was a kidnapping and a few mailbox bombs, and that was back in the 70s.

What do you think would happen if the federal government tried to simply eliminate the province of Quebec, abolish the national Assembly and put the province under Ottawa's direct rule? Answer: civil war, terrorism, insurrection...no one ever thought Bosnians and Serbs and Croats would fight in 1984 when the winter Olympics were in sarajevo and everything seemed hunky-dory...things can get very nasty very fast. Northern Ireland was quiet for 50 years - then one civil rights march turned bloody in 1969 and the result was 30 years of "The Troubles"

Sean in Ottawa

Stockholm your argument may be sound but your comparisons are disturbing and inappropriate and devalue your argument rather than support it.

 

Stockholm

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Stockholm your argument may be sound but your comparisons are disturbing and inappropriate and devalue your argument rather than support it.

 

What do you think would happen in the totally fanciful hypothetical situation where the NO side wins narrowly in Scotland and David Cameron's response is to eliminate the Scottish Parliament and put Scotland under the direct rule of Westminster forever and ever? I think you are very naive if you don't think something that draconian and unpopular would not lead to violence. Northern Ireland exploded over less.

kropotkin1951

Stockholm wrote:

What do you think would happen in the totally fanciful hypothetical situation where the NO side wins narrowly in Scotland and David Cameron's response is to eliminate the Scottish Parliament and put Scotland under the direct rule of Westminster forever and ever? I think you are very naive if you don't think something that draconian and unpopular would not lead to violence. Northern Ireland exploded over less.

Imagine after a successful referendum having governors appointed to rule over you who are appointed by the newly elected Chocolate Czar. One would be naive to think that a region would not explode. I think your analysis is fairly accurate and is applicable to many conflicts in devolving federations.

Sean in Ottawa

Stockholm wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Stockholm your argument may be sound but your comparisons are disturbing and inappropriate and devalue your argument rather than support it.

 

What do you think would happen in the totally fanciful hypothetical situation where the NO side wins narrowly in Scotland and David Cameron's response is to eliminate the Scottish Parliament and put Scotland under the direct rule of Westminster forever and ever? I think you are very naive if you don't think something that draconian and unpopular would not lead to violence. Northern Ireland exploded over less.

First of all Ireland exploded over a hell of a lot more. I have a close family connection to the conflict in Ireland and I have to say to make that comparison you don't know what you are talking about.

Second of all David Cameron would not have the legal ability to do that -- there is no indication that he would be able to or want to just move law off the table to eliminate the Scottish parliament. The Scottish do have courts and they would use them. There is no indication that there would be a breakdown of rule of law there regardless of the result.

 

6079_Smith_W
NorthReport

Oh, come on, since when is politics not a blood sport! 

Alex Salmond blasts Treasury over RBS 'tip-off' to BBC

First minister demands inquiry after corporation disclosed bank's decision to move HQ to England in event of yes vote

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/11/alex-salmond-treasury-bb...

NorthReport

If the Scots vote "Yes" Cameron may as well resign, as he will be done like dinner.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Oh, come on, since when is politics not a blood sport! 

Alex Salmond blasts Treasury over RBS 'tip-off' to BBC

First minister demands inquiry after corporation disclosed bank's decision to move HQ to England in event of yes vote

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/11/alex-salmond-treasury-bb...

I think the latest poll may have soured his mood

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independen...

Stockholm

The polls now have the NO side back in the lead. It appears sanity has returned to Scotland after this brief flirtation with the idiocy of separatism.

6079_Smith_W

I don't know Stockholm.

I'm not really up on this campaign, but if the best argument the No side can come up with are threats, fearmongering and insults, they are their own worst enemy.

And they don't really have history on their side, either.

 

Stockholm

I'm not sure what you mean by having history on their side. Scotland has been an integral part of the UK for over 300 years and they were never conquered they asked to join With England to create the UK and no one has ever suggested that scots were oppressed or discriminated against. If anything Scots have pulled above their weight in the UK supplying numerous PMs etc...

abnormal

Major banks (RBS and Lloyds) have gone on record as saying that, if Scotland goes independent, they will move their headquarters to England and a number of other banks have announced they'll do the same thing.

The logic is fairly simple - the UK government guarantees them and it's doubtful that Scotland will have the wherewithal to do so.  This may actually be a plus from the independence point of view since one of the arguments against independence has been that Scotland couldn't afford to support the banks (they're a very significant multiple of the entire country's GDP).

DaveW

Stockholm wrote:

The polls now have the NO side back in the lead. It appears sanity has returned to Scotland after this brief flirtation with the idiocy of separatism.

in 1980, a fellow student at McGill, an American who was following the referendum very closely, was quite impressed with the final set of polls, one of which showed the Yes surging into the lead;

I said, calm down, the No will win 60-40;

he thought I was terribly naive and so we bet dinner at the Hungarian Club on the Main; I enjoyed my goulash

2nd try: on Sept. 18th, 58-42 No

No haggis, please.

 

 

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