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Would a PC party led by Doug Ford reduce the NDP to non-party status in 2018?

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Wed, 2014-10-29 20:33

#1

terrytowel

Would a PC party led by Doug Ford reduce the NDP to non-party status in 2018?

If Doug Ford enters the PC leadership he would win.

He retains huge support in North York, Scarborough and Etobicoke.

A fake poll commissioned by Mississauga mayoral candidate Steve Mahoney showed Doug Ford had support in the 30s in the 905 area.

Plus huge support in rural, Northern and Southern Ontario.

The kicker, the Fords retain 25% support from committed NDP voters. Quarter of NDP committed voters supported the Fords over Olivia Chow.

So with all that NDP support with the traditional PC support, does this bode badly for the NDP in 2018?

Andrea Horwath ran on a lite-Ford agenda. But voters rejected that.

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Wed, 2014-10-29 20:51

#2

Lord Palmerston

How reliable is a "fake poll"?

Wed, 2014-10-29 20:56

#3

terrytowel

Lord Palmerston wrote:

How reliable is a "fake poll"?

Volunteers for mayoral candidate Steve Mahoney are finding at the door that some voters are more in tune with what is happening in Toronto municipal politics

To determine the reasons behind the level of confusion and, to some extent a fairly high number of undecided voters, the Toronto polling company Main Street Technologies separately added the names of Ford along with the two front-runners in Mississauga, Mahoney and Bonnie Crombie.

When Doug Ford was on the ballot, he received 23 per cent support, compared with Crombie’s 30 per cent, Mahoney’s 35 and “other” receiving 12.

http://www.mykawartha.com/news-story/4871904-overlapping-mayoral-campaig...

Wed, 2014-10-29 22:14

#4

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

montrealer58's picture

Saying that Horwath ran on a "lite-Ford" agenda is simply a Liberal partisan slur.

Thu, 2014-10-30 03:12

#5

Adam T

He might win the PC leadership, they have a habit of voting in contenders who came in second in Toronto mayoral elections.

Thu, 2014-10-30 09:27

#6

terrytowel

montrealer58 wrote:

Saying that Horwath ran on a "lite-Ford" agenda is simply a Liberal partisan slur.

Can't be a Liberal partisan slur. when every political columnist said the same thing. She went after Ford Nation for votes with that platform.

She deliberately went after the Rob Ford/Toronto Sun/Tim Horton voter.

With a populist platform and ton of advertising in the Toronto Sun.

Even many NDP posters on this board agreed that her platform was a deliberate attempt to go after Ford Nation

So how can that be a Lib slur when even NDP supporters felt that she went after Ford Nation?

Thu, 2014-10-30 11:08

#7

Stockholm

There is a difference between between having a "Ford-lite" agenda and legitimately trying to attract voters who support "the Fords" municipally. The Ford voters tend to have very low incomes and are the kinds of people who under normal circumstances are the natural constituency of any left of centre/social democratic party. It's essential that parties like the NDP find ways to attract those people and channel their feelings of resentment into something more productive (ie: make them resent the top 1% and growing income inequality, rather than just resneting people who know who Margaret Atwood is).

The only one with a "Ford-lite" policy agenda was actually Kathleen Wynne since she is now going on a Ford-like binge of contracting out government services, selling off government assets and creeping privatization. Hudak on the other hand had a "Ford heavy" agenda.

There are things i would criticize about Andrea Horwath's campaign but i will never complain about her advertising in the Toronto Sun...the NDP is a party first and foremost a party that represents the interests of low income working class people - so they ought to advertize in the media that is read by that demographic. If the NDP ran full page ads in the Financial Post and the Globe and Mail - it would be a total waste of money.

I think it would be a very sad and disturbing trend if in the future anytime a politician speaks out on behalf of the poor and the dispossessed and attacks the power or the 1% and the corporate elite - they get dismissed as being "Ford-lite" and denigrated as populists. That is how mainstream Republicans try to marginalize any liberal Democrats in the US who try to talk about any class-based issues.

Thu, 2014-10-30 11:36

#8

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

The NDP is a party first and foremost a party that represents the interests of low income working class people

And the Fords are stealing that electoate, which make up Ford Nation.

So if Doug Ford becomes PC leader, this is bad new for Horwath and the NDP.

They would need a new narrative to stop their traditional voters going to Ford.

Thu, 2014-10-30 12:26

#9

Stockholm

I assume (or maybe i shouldn't assume), that you do not like the Fords and the policies that they espouse and that you would like other parties to successfully make the case to Ford voters for why they should not vote that way and wnhy other parties actually better represent the interests of working people.

So maybe instead of denigrating politicians who are trying to understand the Ford Nation "phenomenon" and want to move it in another direction - you should applaud them. maybe you can tell us what you think parties of the left ought to do to win over very low income voters who have temporarily (we hope) been seduced by the Ford message. Or maybe you don't care and y7ou just have condescending contempt for people with low incomes and think that parties should only bother trying to appeal to professional people who the Globe and Mail?

I realize that terrytowel only cares about seeing the NDP destroyed and doesn't care at all about the future of progressive politrics in Ontario...therefore he is drooling with glee at the thought of Doug Ford taking his road show to the provincial level...but be careful what you wish for. In the highly unlikely event that Ford became PC leader (IMHO it will never happen), there is the risk that Ford could re-build the old Mike Harris coalition and fuse the bedrock 31% of Ontarians who always vote PC no matter what with a big chunk of low income blue collar types - and win the 2018 election. Now maybe terrytowel thinks that it wouldn't be so bad if Doug Ford became premier of Ontario - as long as the Ontario NDP loses Oshawa and Sudbury - but other people are not so eager to see that.

Thu, 2014-10-30 15:44

Ken Burch

I think terry is setting up the "if you hate Doug Ford, you CANNOT vote ONDP" meme for the next provincial election.

Thu, 2014-10-30 16:43

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

In the highly unlikely event that Ford became PC leader (IMHO it will never happen), there is the risk that Ford could re-build the old Mike Harris coalition and fuse the bedrock 31% of Ontarians who always vote PC no matter what with a big chunk of low income blue collar types - and win the 2018 election. Now maybe terrytowel thinks that it wouldn't be so bad if Doug Ford became premier of Ontario - as long as the Ontario NDP loses Oshawa and Sudbury - but other people are not so eager to see that.

What I'm trying to do is WARN the NDP about Ford being PC leader. It would be HORRIBLE for the party & TERRIBLE for Ontario.

I want the Fords out of politics FOR GOOD.

Which is the NDP need a new narrative because the 'Don't vote out of fear' message is NOT WORKING.

They need to do everything in their power to make sure Ford does not become PC leader.

Thu, 2014-10-30 17:00

Stockholm

Actually the Ontario Liberals have more to fear from Doug Ford than the Ontario NDP - if a Ford led PC Party won in all the areas where Ford did well in the mayoralty - a vast number of Liberal MPPs would be flushed down the toilet across Scarborough, Etobicoke, Western North York and York...the people who voted for Peter Tabuns and Cheri DiNovo ain't voting for Ford so the NDP has nothing to lose in Toronto from him.

Thu, 2014-10-30 17:13

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

Actually the Ontario Liberals have more to fear from Doug Ford than the Ontario NDP - if a Ford led PC Party won in all the areas where Ford did well in the mayoralty - a vast number of Liberal MPPs would be flushed down the toilet across Scarborough, Etobicoke, Western North York and York...the people who voted for Peter Tabuns and Cheri DiNovo ain't voting for Ford so the NDP has nothing to lose in Toronto from him.

If we were using your logic, the NDP would only one seat in the GTA, that would be Cheri DiNovo. Cause when they did the post-mortems and looked at the vote count based on the provincial ridings, Olivia Chow only won Parkdale-High Park.

And John Tory did win parts of Etobicoke and North York, so the Libs could salvage those ridings.

Plus in 2018 all the ridings will be redistributed. So we need to see how the Cons do in remapped Ontario in 2015

Thu, 2014-10-30 19:28

Lord Palmerston

Stockholm wrote:
I think it would be a very sad and disturbing trend if in the future anytime a politician speaks out on behalf of the poor and the dispossessed and attacks the power or the 1% and the corporate elite - they get dismissed as being "Ford-lite" and denigrated as populists. That is how mainstream Republicans try to marginalize any liberal Democrats in the US who try to talk about any class-based issues.

It would be nice to see the NDP invoke class politics again. Unfortunately it is the hard right that seems to be picking up the discontented in most places around the world, whether it be the Fords in Toronto, UKIP in the UK, the BJP in India etc.

One thing to look at future campaigns in Toronto is the De Blasio campaign in New York, which united professional "urban progressives" in Manhattan and brownstone Brooklyn with poor and racialized people in the outer boroughs. How can we build a "De Blasio coalition" in Toronto?

Thu, 2014-10-30 19:57

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

montrealer58's picture

It is always good to say do not vote out of fear. Whether or not it is effective, depends on the time. Hysteria and fear-mongering is an American style of politics most of us do not need.

And it seems that fear of the Tory monster (or even fear of the socialist monster) always seems to be used by those of the Liberal orientation as an excuse to get people to vote for people with no policies. As a result, Toronto gets bad government, being taken by granted by Liberals who spread the money everywhere else to get votes on the margin.

You can say you want to get rid of someone all you want, but if you do not have anything positive to say, you are not accomplishing anything.

Thu, 2014-10-30 20:37

Ken Burch

The OP makes a case for the ONDP to once again talk openly about class and the sense of powerlessness many low- and no-income people feel...it makes a case for the party to become a party of the voiceless and the dispossessed again and to stop osessing on appeasing Bay Street and the TSE.

It does not make a case for obsessing about the Fords any more. Obsessing about the Fords in Toronto just led to an election result that was disastrous for the Left...the election of someone who's ONLY claim to progressive support was not having the last name Ford. Every progressive who voted for John Tory just because he wasn't in the Ford family wasted their vote. Electing a right-wing politician not named Ford is exactly the same as electing a right-wing politician named Ford.

Thu, 2014-10-30 22:08

Lord Palmerston

Ford actually uses the language of class FAR more than Olivia Chow did or any NDP politician does. He repeatedly said he was for the "working class", skipped the Empire Club debate for being elitist, and referred to Tory as a member of the "1%.

Thu, 2014-10-30 22:12

Debater

montrealer58 wrote:

Saying that Horwath ran on a "lite-Ford" agenda is simply a Liberal partisan slur.

Saying that Justin Trudeau is right-wing like Stephen Harper is an NDP partisan slur.

Thu, 2014-10-30 22:55

Sineed

If the PCs made Doug Ford their leader, they'd have to change their name to the RCs: the Regressive Conservatives.

Seriously, though, I don't know about Doug getting support province-wide. He can't travel about the whole province handing out twenties. Besides the name recognition, what does he, as a one-term city councilor, bring to the table?

Thu, 2014-10-30 23:02

Lord Palmerston

They ceased to be the Progressive Conservatives when Harris became leader.

Fri, 2014-10-31 01:46

Debater

Doug Ford would give them someone recognizable, but he doesn't quite have Rob Ford's 'charisma'.

And he would be the type of angry, divisive conservative the PC's claim they want to get away from after the Hudak era.

Fri, 2014-10-31 02:23

Ken Burch

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Ford actually uses the language of class FAR more than Olivia Chow did or any NDP politician does. He repeatedly said he was for the "working class", skipped the Empire Club debate for being elitist, and referred to Tory as a member of the "1%.

He used the LANGUAGE of class to hide the fact that he was pushing an economic royalist agenda that has badly screwed over his core supporters.

The idea is for the ONDP to counter that by ACTUALLY fighting the power and giving the voiceless a real say...which, as Horwath did not realize, means trying to unite everybody on the outside rather than pitting the rest of Ontario against Toronto-it means admitting that people in places like Nickel Belt, Kenora, Hamilton and Oshawa have a common enemy with the half of Toronto-area voters who are struggling to make it through each day...the handful of corporations who have seized control of the levers of economic and political power in Ontario-and that simply happening to live and work(or not have work to do) in Toronto does not make a person an elitist or part of the problem.

This means not only having "tax the rich" in the program, but repeating the phrase over and over on the stump.

And this means openly declaring solidarity with all who are standing up and fighting back against exploitation and injustice...because voters who hate people like that don't agree with the ONDP and will never even consider supporting it. People who look down on labour, the poor, and social activists are locked in to extreme right-wing views.

Fri, 2014-10-31 03:06

Lord Palmerston

Leo Panitch on the Toronto election:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqPlA_PSfws

Fri, 2014-10-31 04:18

Rokossovsky

terrytowel wrote:

montrealer58 wrote:

Saying that Horwath ran on a "lite-Ford" agenda is simply a Liberal partisan slur.

Can't be a Liberal partisan slur. when every political columnist said the same thing. She went after Ford Nation for votes with that platform.

She deliberately went after the Rob Ford/Toronto Sun/Tim Horton voter.

With a populist platform and ton of advertising in the Toronto Sun.

Even many NDP posters on this board agreed that her platform was a deliberate attempt to go after Ford Nation

So how can that be a Lib slur when even NDP supporters felt that she went after Ford Nation?

Ford Nation is made up of "people". Most of those people are poor, lower income, including immigrants from all walks of life. I seem to have forgotten my "leftist" handbook on me, so correct me if I am wrong, but aren't the NDP supposed to represent the poor, lower income people from all immigrant backgrounds?

I had forgotten that the NDP's job was to represent birkenstock clad coffee drinking young urban professionals, who take up "social activism" as a hobby, and so relegate themselves to holding seats only in the downtown core of Toronto.

It's really pretty clear that what is lost on you is that it is the right that went after the bedrock working class vote after the liberal/left decided to buy into neo-liberal economic and "make the poor pay", opening up an opportunity for the right to lead a tax revolt against downloaded costs.

All that really happened here is that Horwath articulated a position against consumption taxes, in favour of more progressive taxes, which is actually bedrock left-wing economics in a capitalist economic system for about a hundred years, at least.

The distinction between Ford tax policy and NDP tax policy is that Ford opposes all taxes, while the NDP supports uploading costs to the rich -- make the rich pay.

Fri, 2014-10-31 09:03

terrytowel

Sineed wrote:

If the PCs made Doug Ford their leader, they'd have to change their name to the RCs: the Regressive Conservatives.

Seriously, though, I don't know about Doug getting support province-wide. He can't travel about the whole province handing out twenties. Besides the name recognition, what does he, as a one-term city councilor, bring to the table?

But everywhere he goes, he attracts crowds like a rock star. Andrea Horwath cannot command a crowd like that. Ford pulls in votes from the elctorate the NDP should be their base. The disenfranchised, the lower-class, the less educated.

Ford Nation is Canada version of the Tea Party. If Ford becomes PC leader he would be their leader in name only.

He would actually be the leader of Ford Nation in Ontario whose base makes up 25% of NDP support, which will grow over time.

I could see Doug Ford maintaining the traditional Conservative base, and pulling in that NDP support.

It terrifies me!

Fri, 2014-10-31 10:49

Stockholm

1. There is no evidence that the Ford phenomenon works anywhere but at the municipal level. I have met Ford supporters who look at me as if I'm nuts when i ask if they would want Ford to be Premier or PM - those higher levels of government deal with things like health care, schools, war and peace, foreign policy...people see the Ford's as pothole fixers - not as someone you want meeting with the G7.

2. The Ontario PCs will never let someone as toxic as Doug Ford anywhere near their leadership - he would have to stage a hostile takeover of the party and get tens of thousand sof people to buy $10 party memberships and he woudl need backers and organization across the province. Ford is not a "team player" and leading an actual party and caucus etc... is totally different from being an individual running for mayor leading a one man personality cult

3. Ford did best in Liberal held parts of Toronto - so IF we assume that as PC leader he would get the votes of all the people who voted for him for mayor - the Liberals will be killed while the NDP has nothing to lose...and Andrea Horwath is also MUCH more appealing to so-called "white working class" voters than Olivia Chow was.

Fri, 2014-10-31 11:20

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

1. There is no evidence that the Ford phenomenon works anywhere but at the municipal level.

He gets 23% support in Mississauga and he is not even running there!

Stockholm wrote:

2. The Ontario PCs will never let someone as toxic as Doug Ford anywhere near their leadership - he would have to stage a hostile takeover of the party and get tens of thousand sof people to buy $10 party memberships and he woudl need backers and organization across the province. Ford is not a "team player" and leading an actual party and caucus etc... is totally different from being an individual running for mayor leading a one man personality cult

The PC party is HUNGRY to get back into power, they would to suck it up and deal with it. The Fords have money, and a base. Ford could buy hundreds of thousands of memberships and give them to their Ford Nation base. Remember Doug Ford has worked on part PC leadership campaigns as a campaign worker. So he knows what goes into a leadership race.

This mayor election he had no lists, no ground game, no staff, no professional polling and he lost by only 7%! Compare that to Chow well oiled machine, and she finsihed a distant third.

If Ford runs for PC leadership, it would be over for the other candidates. Based on what he did in the mayor's race, no one else has that support in GTA. And they need that to win the next election.

Stockholm wrote:

3. Ford did best in Liberal held parts of Toronto - so IF we assume that as PC leader he would get the votes of all the people who voted for him for mayor - the Liberals will be killed while the NDP has nothing to lose...and Andrea Horwath is also MUCH more appealing to so-called "white working class" voters than Olivia Chow was.

If Andrea Horwath is also MUCH more appealing to so-called "white working class" voters than Olivia Chow was, why did she lose three GTA seats, and barely hung on to a fourth one.

When they compared Chow vote with the pronvincial ridings, she only won one seat. Parkdale-High Park. Tory = Wynne, he was able to hold onto old Toronto (which was suppose to be Chow strength), North York and parts of Etobicoke. The Libs would do a hell of alot better than the NDP in the GTA.

Fri, 2014-10-31 11:30

Stockholm

Ford got a hypothetical 23% if he was running for MAYOR of Mississauga - no one was asked about how they would vote if he were leading the PC Ontario party - and the PC party led by Tim Hudak got wayyyy more than 23% in Mississuga even though they lost every seat.

Horwath IS very appealing to working class voters - the reason she gained ground in southwestern Ontario and Oshawa and the north and lost ground in downtown Toronto is because nowadays very few "white working class" people can afford to live in places like the Annex and Cabbagetown and the Beaches. Horwath sells very well with autoworkers in Oshawa and cab drivers in Brampton...she doesn't sell so well among professors of Marxist theory at York U who live in the Annex

Fri, 2014-10-31 11:36

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

Horwath IS very appealing to working class voters - the reason she gained ground in southwestern Ontario and Oshawa and the north and lost ground in downtown Toronto is because nowadays very few "white working class" people can afford to live in places like the Annex and Cabbagetown and the Beaches. Horwath sells very well with autoworkers in Oshawa and cab drivers in Brampton...she doesn't sell so well among professors of Marxist theory at York U who live in the Annex

Yes and that is where it is going to HURT Horwath and the NDP. Because like it or not, Ford has more appeal to those voters than Horwath.

That was shown with the lower-income voters in Toronto, that Horwath couldn't connect with.

The NDP better pray that Doug Ford decides not to run for PC leader.

Fri, 2014-10-31 12:28

Stockholm

Actually Horwath did connect with low income voters in the GTA - the ONDP swept Oshawa, won Bramalea-Gore-Malton by a huge margin and almost won Brampton-Springdale and had a big increase in York West (the poorest riding in Toronto) up to 40% - Olivia Chow was barely in double digits in the wards that make up York West.

Doug Ford can do what he wants - he will never win the PC leadership. For one thing, while municipally he was able to self-finance his campaign and donate half a million dollars to himself - that is not allowed in a provincial leadership race. He cannot give himself anymore money than $2,500 - and so he would have to raise money cap in hand. Yes the PCs want to win, but I suspect they think the easiest and most risk-free way to win is to pick a supposedly red Tory inoffensive leader like Christine Elliott who can win the votes of all the people who voted for John Tory - and won't disgust traditional PC voters in the rest of Ontario the way Doug Ford would.

A more likely scenario is that Rob Ford succumbs to cancer, Doug Ford runs in the byelection to replace him in ward 2 and wins and then for the next four years Doug Ford screams and yells a lot on city council and plot to run against Tory in 2018.

Fri, 2014-10-31 12:48

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

Doug Ford can do what he wants - he will never win the PC leadership.

I don't want to go into circle but every single pundit on TV has said if Ford runs for PC leader, he would win. Hands down.

In addition no other candidate has any appeal to capture votes in the GTA. Doug Ford has, that is the difference. The PC need the GTA to win.

That is the only reason why Doug Ford will win the PC leadership. Right now NO ONE has the ability to appeal to the GTA. Hudak couldn't even get 300,000 votes, that is would be impossible to ignore.

He is done with city council and has bigger fish to fry, namely leading the PC party in Ontario.

Fri, 2014-10-31 12:49

Stockholm

The only pundit i have heard opine about Ford and the PC leadership is Christina Blizzard and all she said was that he was not to be discounted...in any case pundits tend to be wrong about 99% of the time - ESPECIALLY when they try to predict the outc ome of leadership contests.

Fri, 2014-10-31 13:08

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

The only pundit i have heard opine about Ford and the PC leadership is Christina Blizzard and all she said was that he was not to be discounted...in any case pundits tend to be wrong about 99% of the time - ESPECIALLY when they try to predict the outc ome of leadership contests.

Christina Blizzard actually endorsed John Tory for mayor saying Doug Ford was unfit to be Toronto mayor.

Link below go into 1:12 at Power & Politics. All three pundits from all three parties agree, Doug Ford would win PC leadership

http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV+Shows/Power+%26+Politics+with+Evan+Solo...

One intersting note, most of Doug Ford campaign contributions came from OUTSIDE the GTA.

Fri, 2014-10-31 13:37

Stockholm

Here is Kelly McPharland on Doug Ford

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/10/30/kelly-mcparland-doug-ford...

"It would seem, then, that Ontario Progressive Conservative party members would easily spot the problem with the potential leadership bid of Doug Ford. Having picked the wrong leader on three of their last three tries (four if you count the do-over they granted Tim Hudak), and having seen Mr. Ford in action for four years, the odds suggest they should be close to making a wiser choice."

"Why, then, would the provincial party consider embracing them, even for a moment? If the Tories would like to solidify their hold on second place … permanent second place … putting Doug Ford in charge would be a good start....As Mr. Wilson indicated, Doug Ford has the right to seek the job, but party members should also be wise enough to stay well clear of him. His loud, angry style might make life uncomfortable for the Liberals, but it would also likely ensure Ms. Wynne many more years in her job."

Fri, 2014-10-31 16:17

terrytowel

I'm not saying that he will win and be Premier. I'm saying that him being PC leader would be bad news for the NDP

Fri, 2014-10-31 16:42

Stockholm

I think Doug Ford would be good news for the NDP - by 2018 voters will be in the mood for change and to ":throw the bums out" - Wynne will be very old and tired and unpopular by then while Andrea Horwath will be young and vibrant - if the PCs have a leader who is a widely seen as a buffoon and is an extremely divisive figfure in his own party - the NDP will be the only "sane" alternative to the Liberals.

Fri, 2014-10-31 17:03

Lord Palmerston

In terms of social base and appeal, Wynne vs. Horwath very much resembles Obama vs. Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary.

Fri, 2014-10-31 17:51

youngsocialist

Can you really be mad at us for voting for Ford when our so called NDP councillors don't give a fuck about our problems? You are more likely to get a response from Rob Ford on the phone than my NDP councillor who is too busy eating at fancy restaurants and attending parties than to even respond to your tweets. You want our vote? Then show us that you value my time and money. Stop putting money into projects that have failed, come up with new ideas AND even listen to ours!

NDP: Pretends to care.

Fri, 2014-10-31 18:41

Aristotleded24

youngsocialist wrote:
Can you really be mad at us for voting for Ford when our so called NDP councillors don't give a fuck about our problems? You are more likely to get a response from Rob Ford on the phone than my NDP councillor who is too busy eating at fancy restaurants and attending parties than to even respond to your tweets. You want our vote? Then show us that you value my time and money. Stop putting money into projects that have failed, come up with new ideas AND even listen to ours!

I'm intrigued. Can you give some specific examples so we can better understand where you are coming from?

Fri, 2014-10-31 19:16

Stockholm

If these "NDP councillors" are so bad - how come every single one of them was re-elected on Monday by a gigangtic margin? Mike Layton got 83% of the vote in his ward!

Fri, 2014-10-31 19:45

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

If these "NDP councillors" are so bad - how come every single one of them was re-elected on Monday by a gigangtic margin? Mike Layton got 83% of the vote in his ward!

As Georgio Mammoliti says “It’s very difficult to beat an incumbent,”

All the incumbents got re-elected, with the exception of one.

Sat, 2021-11-20 12:53

jfb

.

Sat, 2014-11-01 12:33

Stockholm

Adam Radwanski is also highly sceptical that Ford will run for the PC leadership and that if he did run he would have any chance of winning.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/is-doug-ford-really-ready-w...

Sat, 2014-11-01 13:43

Sineed

terrytowel wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

If these "NDP councillors" are so bad - how come every single one of them was re-elected on Monday by a gigangtic margin? Mike Layton got 83% of the vote in his ward!

As Georgio Mammoliti says “It’s very difficult to beat an incumbent,”

All the incumbents got re-elected, with the exception of one.

This is an argument against Doug Ford running provincially. After all, name recognition is huge in municpal politics, but as you get into the provincial and federal levels of government, other factors come into play. Like, is the potential party leader a bully, a pathological liar and a former drug dealer.

Doug's strong showing at the municipal level reflects the family's success at creating Ford Nayshun and getting them out to the polls. I don't see that local success carrying over into a province the size of western Europe and a population of almost 14 million.

Maybe I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm calling it: Ford Nation is specific to Toronto. No Fords will win a seat at the provincial or (goddess forbid) the federal levels.

Sat, 2014-11-01 15:34

terrytowel

Sineed wrote:

Maybe I'm going out on a limb here, but I'm calling it: Ford Nation is specific to Toronto. No Fords will win a seat at the provincial or (goddess forbid) the federal levels.

If any of the leadership candidates said they would be at a Wal-Mart from 2 to 4 PM, maybe 5 people might show up. Doug Ford would attract a mob. Those numbers are hard for the PC party to ignore.

Majority of their donations came from outside the GTA.

They poll in the 20s in Missassauga

Their strength is in rural and suburban Ontario.

Their base is motivated, as they have captured the disinfranchised voter and the lower income, lower educated. Those are the people that are unlikely to vote.

Sat, 2014-11-01 17:32

Lord Palmerston

Doug Ford would be the "David Orchard" of the Ontario PCs.

Sat, 2014-11-01 18:24

terrytowel

Lord Palmerston wrote:

Doug Ford would be the "David Orchard" of the Ontario PCs.

Can David Orchard be mobbed by supporters?

You guys are underestimating the power of Ford Nation. It is Canada version of the Tea Party.

But then again everyone thought Ford would finish a distant third, yet he lost the election by only 7%. & it was Chow who finished a distant third.

You all should know by now, never EVER count out the Fords.

Which is why the Ont NDP better be prepared.

Sat, 2014-11-01 19:48

Stockholm

terrytowel wrote:

You guys are underestimating the power of Ford Nation. It is Canada version of the Tea Party.

The Tea Party is actually been a God-send to the Democrats and is the worst thing that ever happened to the Republican party. The GOP would have won the senate two yeats ago had it not been for the Tea Party causing them to nominate all these unelectable lunatic fringe people like Christin "I am not a witch" O'Donnell and the guy in Indiana who says when a woman is raped it is "God's will". The contunued presence of Tea Party icons like Sarah Palin make the Republican party unelectable at the presidential level - we should only be so lucky!!

In the totally hypothetical and unlikely event that Doug Ford did become PC leader - if he didn't fall flat on his face - he would be a huge threat to the Ontario Liberals - every single wartd where he won on Oct. 27 is part of a riding that the Ontario Liberals hold provincially. Can the Liberals afford to lose 14 seats in Toronto to a Ford led PC party (if we make the leap of fait and assume that everyone voting for him municipally would be prepared to support him provincially?). So what if 22% of people in Mississauga would have voted for him as mayor - ther NDP has almost no support there in the first place - so he would just take votes from the Liberals.

But I doubt if he will run and I doubt if he could win. The PC party has a voting system that gives every riding equal weight - meaning that you can sign up a pile of people in Toronto but Toronto is only 23 seats out of 107. Also, its a preferential ballot and I think it is almost guaranteed that if Ford ran there would be an "anyone but Ford" movement among all the other candidates and he would get zero second preferences

Sat, 2014-11-01 20:15

terrytowel

Stockholm wrote:

In the totally hypothetical and unlikely event that Doug Ford did become PC leader - if he didn't fall flat on his face - he would be a huge threat to the Ontario Liberals - every single wartd where he won on Oct. 27 is part of a riding that the Ontario Liberals hold provincially. Can the Liberals afford to lose 14 seats in Toronto to a Ford led PC party (if we make the leap of fait and assume that everyone voting for him municipally would be prepared to support him provincially?). So what if 22% of people in Mississauga would have voted for him as mayor - ther NDP has almost no support there in the first place - so he would just take votes from the Liberals.

Again just going by your theory, both the NDP and the PC need to win seats in the GTA to win the election. Ford Nation (= PC Party) and Tory (= Wynne Liberals) wiped out Chow (= NDP Horwath). When compared to the provincial ridings, the NDP would only win one seat in the GTA. Parkdale-High Park.

Ford wouldn't take votes from the Liberals in Mississauga, as they have a secret weapon. Hurricane Hazel. When she speaks, Mississauga listens.

She told all Mississauga to vote Liberal in the Provincial election, they followed suit. She told them to vote Bonnie Crombie for Mayor, they followed suit. When Hazel speaks, Mississauga listens.

It is worse for the NDP , as both they are Ford Nation go after the same vote. The working class, lower income, lower educated. But Ford Nation has been able to exploit it to their benefit.

Stockholm wrote:

The PC party has a voting system that gives every riding equal weight - meaning that you can sign up a pile of people in Toronto but Toronto is only 23 seats out of 107.

He has worked on part leadership races, so he knows how to sell memberships across Ontario. It is not like he has not done this before.

I don't want him anywhere near politics, but the NDP better be prepared just in case.

Sat, 2014-11-01 20:29

TiradeFaction

terrytowel wrote:

Ford wouldn't take votes from the Liberals in Mississauga, as they have a secret weapon. Hurricane Hazel. When she speaks, Mississauga listens.

She told all Mississauga to vote Liberal in the Provincial election, they followed suit. She told them to vote Bonnie Crombie for Mayor, they followed suit. When Hazel speaks, Mississauga listens.

It is worse for the NDP , as both they are Ford Nation go after the same vote. The working class, lower income, lower educated. But Ford Nation has been able to exploit it to their benefit.

She's also 93. The chances of her living to the next election in 2018 is pretty minimal.

Sat, 2014-11-01 20:30

terrytowel

TiradeFaction wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

Ford wouldn't take votes from the Liberals in Mississauga, as they have a secret weapon. Hurricane Hazel. When she speaks, Mississauga listens.

She told all Mississauga to vote Liberal in the Provincial election, they followed suit. She told them to vote Bonnie Crombie for Mayor, they followed suit. When Hazel speaks, Mississauga listens.

It is worse for the NDP , as both they are Ford Nation go after the same vote. The working class, lower income, lower educated. But Ford Nation has been able to exploit it to their benefit.

She's also 93. The chances of her living to the next election in 2018 is pretty minimal.

You think the Libs haven't prepared? Her robo call has already been pre-recorded.

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