Winning with a 1919 margin after redistribution does NOT make Hedy un-beatable. What people are failing to see here is the affect of ground organizing. We are also failing to tak into account that NDP/Liberal isnt th only vote splitting.
In Vancouver-Centre the NDP put minimal resources in last time, believing the lie that Hedy is unbeatable. This time will be different. I'm not predicting she is going to lose, but I am predicting an exciting two way race between Hedy and Constance.
Burnaby North - Seymour will be an interesting race. (I should note that Trevor Ritchie bowed out of the nomination and I'd be shocked if Carol doesn't get it.) This is definately the Conservatives to lose and the NDP definately is in the best position to win it since it is mostly Burnaby-Douglas, the NDP's longest held seat. I would never suggest the Liberals bow out, but I would suggest they nominate a candidate that is to the right and appeals in North Van if they are so fond of being "strategic." The Liberals need to eat into the Conservative vote to help the NDP win, so a three way race favors the NDP.
The NDP has also never worked the Seymour area, so we actually don't know their potential there. I expect the NDP will get more than they got last time there, espcially with a high profile candidate and high resource campaign. What is really striking if you look at the numbers, is that the Seymour part has a 70% turnout, while the Burnaby-North part has a 58% turnout. Upping the Burnaby turnout will be goal of the NDP, and the recent municipal results are encouraging there.
Either way, the best way to prevent a Conservative win in Burnaby North-Seymour is to convince people not to vote Conservative. No amount of strategery will overcome the fact that they have 44.3% of the redistributed vote.
1. I don't know if I'd count Michael Charrois out of winning the nomination. He is well known as the President of the North Vancouver-Lonsdale provincial NDP constituency association. He has also been a federal and provincial candidate in 2001, 2008 and 2011. Also, like Sarah Blyth, Carol Baird Ellan is a rather late entrant. Though, I suppose the NDP could delay the nomination to help her out. Also, if Derek Corrigan and Darell Mossato/Craig Keating enlist their organizations in helping her out, she should be a shoo-in.
2.If it's of any help Jim Hanson 2013 provincial NDP North Vancouver-Seymour candidate was elected to North Vancouver district council. Like Carol Baird Ellan, Hanson was a star lawyer candidate.