I'm surprised you didn't also gloat about it in:
Why did it take the CBC more than 10 years to cut Ghomeshi loose?
Federal NDP Candidates 2015
Fri, 2015-01-09 17:06
#602
Fri, 2015-01-09 17:28
#603
Where have I been gloating about Yvon Godin retiring?
I haven't said much around here lately, actually.
Don't know if you noticed, but I took a 2-week break from this board during the Christmas holidays. 
Fri, 2015-01-09 18:14
#604
You're not fooling anyone Debater
Fri, 2015-01-09 18:21
#605
Veteran NDP MP Yvon Godin won’t seek re-election
Friday, Jan. 09 2015
http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/politics/veteran-ndp-mp-yvon-godin-...
Well, that's unfortunate.
Fri, 2015-01-09 19:17
#606
I know things ended on a sour note when he left the leadership but I wonder if Roger Duguay would consider running in Godin's seat (no matter, the seat is lost without Godin. A shame.)?
Fri, 2015-01-09 19:21
#607
Unfortunate for the NDP because it gives the Liberals the chance to win back Acadie-Bathurst. But also unfortunate for some of Godin's constituents. Godin was a very passionate advocate for the issues he believed in, whether you agreed with him or not.
He was also a very strong proponent for the French language, and prior to the NDP winning Quebec in 2011, Godin was pretty much the only Francophone MP in the NDP for a time (Denise Savoie of Victoria came some years later). Prior to Mulcair being elected in 2007 in Outremont, Layton also relied on Godin to help expand the NDP's voice in Quebec, and had Godin campaign in QC for the NDP sometimes.
Godin has always been a very strong orator & passionate speaker in the House of Commons. He was perhaps a little on the loud side for some people (eg. Stockholm said on the NB NDP thread in the Atlantic forum that Godin used to scream a lot!) but he certainly made himself known to a lot of people, and his departure is getting a lot of coverage by Radio-Canada and other French language media today. (Enter Godin's name into Twitter and you will see all the mentions that come up.)
David Akin is predicting today that the Liberals will 'easily' win back Acadie-Bathurst now, but I don't think anything can be taken for granted. Due to Godin's popularity, some of the NDP vote may remain in the riding even after he retires this year. I don't think the A-B riding is in the bag for anyone yet.
Fri, 2015-01-09 20:10
#608
Arthur Cramer
Unfortunate for the NDP because it gives the Liberals the chance to win back Acadie-Bathurst. But also unfortunate for some of Godin's constituents. Godin was a very passionate advocate for the issues he believed in, whether you agreed with him or not.
He was also a very strong proponent for the French language, and prior to the NDP winning Quebec in 2011, Godin was pretty much the only Francophone MP in the NDP for a time (Denise Savoie of Victoria came some years later). Prior to Mulcair being elected in 2007 in Outremont, Layton also relied on Godin to help expand the NDP's voice in Quebec, and had Godin campaign in QC for the NDP sometimes.
Godin has always been a very strong orator & passionate speaker in the House of Commons. He was perhaps a little on the loud side for some people (eg. Stockholm said on the NB NDP thread in the Atlantic forum that Godin used to scream a lot!) but he certainly made himself known to a lot of people, and his departure is getting a lot of coverage by Radio-Canada and other French language media today. (Enter Godin's name into Twitter and you will see all the mentions that come up.)
David Akin is predicting today that the Liberals will 'easily' win back Acadie-Bathurst now, but I don't think anything can be taken for granted. Due to Godin's popularity, some of the NDP vote may remain in the riding even after he retires this year. I don't think the A-B riding is in the bag for anyone yet.
Gone all this time, I come back, and you're still up to your tricks Debater. We all know you think its a Liberal majority upcoming. You better be right, or you aren't going to hear the end of it. I'm just saying. Why don't you try being nicer?
Fri, 2015-01-09 21:59
#609
It's arrogant privileged and uninformed opinions like that which keep independence alive as an aspiration in Québec.
Yes, I'm sure saying that it was nice to see Mr Beaulne reembrace federalism will cause a 10% increase for seperatism in Quebec.
No, what it does is provide a talking point to anyone who tries to say: "You vote NDP, you automatically support federalism." That was the talking point used against Québec Solidaire during the 2011 election and long after, because leading spokespersons of QS (notably Amir Khadir) encourage people to defeat Stephen Harper, whether that meant voting BQ or NDP. When idiotic statements are made like, "ah, welcome back to the federalist fold" - especially by non-Quebecers - it only feeds the chauvinistic propaganda. It can never add an NDP vote, but can potentially subtract one. I don't really expect you to understand that reality on the ground here.
In the article, Francois Beaulne's only mention of 'sovereignty' is in the context of saying that one does not have to be a supporter of the B.Q to be a sovereigntist. What Mr Beaulne means by 'sovereignty' in this context is rather unclear.
"Sovereignty", when used by any Quebecer in Québec, is not unclear. It is very clear. I can understand that it may be unclear to outsiders.
It is clear, however, from reading the article, that his main concern is the environment and he is running for the NDP because he supports Mulcair who, he says, was a strong provincial envrionment minister.
It's hard to imagine how you could gave got that more wrong.
Mr Beaulne, btw is 68.
Ah, well that explains everything.
Fri, 2015-01-09 23:44
#610
Um Arthur, I actually agree with Debater's assessment, and even he isn't particularly confident that the Liberals will win A-B for sure. I do agree with your assessment of Debater's posting methods, but take a close look at what is written, and sometimes there's truth to it.
Fri, 2015-01-09 23:48
#611
Very little chance of the libs winning back Ac-Bat. Godin will support the local NDP candidate and it will be public support. Its not surprising he's leaving after 18 years of massive wins. He's had a long run. Rumors are he will eventually make a switch to the provincial scene as hes has been talking about it.
Sat, 2015-01-10 01:52
#612
Um Arthur, I actually agree with Debater's assessment, and even he isn't particularly confident that the Liberals will win A-B for sure. I do agree with your assessment of Debater's posting methods, but take a close look at what is written, and sometimes there's truth to it.
I agree, this was a pretty fair post from Debater. It would be nice to see more of this from him/her.
Sat, 2015-01-10 04:56
#613
I have never predicted a Liberal Majority in 2015. That would be insane. Not even a Liberal Minority is a certainty, let alone a Majority. Harper is still in a very strong position and has a good chance of winning a Minority this year. In fact, a Conservative Minority still remains the most likely outcome.
I have only ever predicted 2 things about the 2015 Election:
1. The Liberals will do better under Trudeau than they did under Ignatieff.
2. Mulcair will not beat Harper.
Other than that, I have no idea where the parties will end up or what the final results will be.
Sat, 2015-01-10 11:42
#614
Arthur Cramer
OK, I'll "man up". given that Ari think and PD think so. But I just always feel like Debater, your posts are about rubbing faces in it. OK. Fair comment Debater. But there is a part of me that still feels like you're rubbing my face in it. But OK. I'll concede on this one.
One thing though, this is going to be a close election, and don't think Mulcair can't beat Harper. I say he can.
Sun, 2015-01-11 13:31
#615
Some new candidates:
Samuel Blais-Bergeron is a candidate for the NPD in La Prairie.
Rosannie Filato is a candidate for the NPD in Sant-Léonard--Saint-Michel.
Romeo Saganash is going to re-offer for the NPD in Abitibi--Baie James--Nunavik--Eeyou.
Christopher Strain is a candidate for the NDP in Etobicoke--Lakeshore.
Catherine Soplet is a candidate for the NDP in Mississauga--Lakeshore.
Nadine Reeves is a candidate for the NDP in London West.
Finally, Jennifer Hollett has announced she'll be running against Chrystia Freeland in University--Rosedale, and not in Spadina--Fort York against Adam Vaughan (as had been rumoured). This, combined with the rumours of Jim Cuddy seeking a Toronto seat makes me wonder if he'll announce for Spadina in the near future.
Sun, 2015-01-11 18:15
#616
Finally, Jennifer Hollett has announced she'll be running against Chrystia Freeland in University--Rosedale, and not in Spadina--Fort York against Adam Vaughan (as had been rumoured).
That's interesting. That contradicts what Hollett said in March 2014. Hollett is the one who specifically said she would run in Spadina-Fort York.
My interest in running for the NDP is 2015, in the new riding Spadina-Fort York. Thanks for the support!
https://twitter.com/jenniferhollett/status/445656518944251904
Does this mean Hollet doesn't think she could beat Vaughan and thinks she has a better chance against Freeland instead?
Sun, 2015-01-11 18:20
#617
Some new candidates:
Samuel Blais-Bergeron is a candidate for the NPD in La Prairie.
Rosannie Filato is a candidate for the NPD in Sant-Léonard--Saint-Michel.
[...]
I don't think they are officially candidates yet. Their Facebook pages seem to indicate that they are still nomination candidates for those ridings.
Sun, 2015-01-11 18:34
#618
montrealer58
It seems the parliamentary cat has Adam Vaughan's tongue. When he runs for office in the general election he can speak eloquently on how silent he has been.
Sun, 2015-01-11 18:57
#619
Some new candidates:
Samuel Blais-Bergeron is a candidate for the NPD in La Prairie.
Rosannie Filato is a candidate for the NPD in Sant-Léonard--Saint-Michel.
[...]
I don't think they are officially candidates yet. Their Facebook pages seem to indicate that they are still nomination candidates for those ridings.
Sorry, when I saw candidates I mean "candidates for the nomination". My bad!
Sun, 2015-01-11 19:08
#620
It seems the parliamentary cat has Adam Vaughan's tongue. When he runs for office in the general election he can speak eloquently on how silent he has been.
How has Adam Vaughan been silent? As far as I can tell, he's been asking questions in Question Period since he got elected. He was only sworn into the House of Commons in September, so he hasn't had a chance to be there for long.
You appear to be on one of your anti-Liberal posting sprees again. There's nothing wrong with criticising the Liberals when there is something to actually criticize, but you just seem to be inventing things that aren't actually there.
Mon, 2015-01-12 05:07
#621
Finally, Jennifer Hollett has announced she'll be running against Chrystia Freeland in University--Rosedale, and not in Spadina--Fort York against Adam Vaughan (as had been rumoured).
That's interesting. That contradicts what Hollett said in March 2014. Hollett is the one who specifically said she would run in Spadina-Fort York.
My interest in running for the NDP is 2015, in the new riding Spadina-Fort York. Thanks for the support!https://twitter.com/jenniferhollett/status/445656518944251904
Does this mean Hollet doesn't think she could beat Vaughan and thinks she has a better chance against Freeland instead?
I think Jennifer Hollett was planning to run in Spadina-Fort York way back before Vaughan was even running when the assumption was that Joe Cressy would win Trinity-Spadina in the Byelection and that he would then run against Chrystia Freeland in U-R. Of course Cressy is now on city council so there is no NDP incumbent running in either of the two seats carved out of T-S and I guess Hollett decided that in the absence of Joe Cressy running she though U-R was a better fit for her than S-FY and let's face it, Vaughan has a personal following and is running in a riding that is almost all within what is now T-S. In contrast Freeland has been a big disappointment as an MP and has a low profile and no one particularly likes her personally. Every vote she gets is just because she is the Liberal candidate. She has zero peRsonal following and she is only the incumbent in the Rosedale section of the new riding where only 30% of the voters live.
Mon, 2015-01-12 05:10
#622
I've noticed that Debater's modus operandi seems to be to spew hatred and derision towards all NDP politicians...until they announce their retirement at which point all of a sudden they retroactively become these highly respected figures who are a terrible loss to Canadian politics.
Mon, 2015-01-12 08:20
#623
What you say Stockholm is an extension of how the Liberal trolls now treat Jack Layton. In life he was reviled as too slick, as defeating the Martin pledges on First nations and child care, as Taliban Jack.
In death he has become an unmatchable icon against which everything remanining in the NDP is measured as inadequate. The Debaters of this world would have us believe that he was the only reason for the NDP's success and that now that he is gone the party is doomed.
Hypocrites.
Mon, 2015-01-12 08:51
#624
I think Jennifer Hollett was planning to run in Spadina-Fort York way back before Vaughan was even running when the assumption was that Joe Cressy would win Trinity-Spadina in the Byelection and that he would then run against Chrystia Freeland in U-R. Of course Cressy is now on city council so there is no NDP incumbent running in either of the two seats carved out of T-S and I guess Hollett decided that in the absence of Joe Cressy running she though U-R was a better fit for her than S-FY and let's face it, Vaughan has a personal following and is running in a riding that is almost all within what is now T-S. In contrast Freeland has been a big disappointment as an MP and has a low profile and no one particularly likes her personally. Every vote she gets is just because she is the Liberal candidate. She has zero peRsonal following and she is only the incumbent in the Rosedale section of the new riding where only 30% of the voters live.Finally, Jennifer Hollett has announced she'll be running against Chrystia Freeland in University--Rosedale, and not in Spadina--Fort York against Adam Vaughan (as had been rumoured).
That's interesting. That contradicts what Hollett said in March 2014. Hollett is the one who specifically said she would run in Spadina-Fort York.
My interest in running for the NDP is 2015, in the new riding Spadina-Fort York. Thanks for the support!https://twitter.com/jenniferhollett/status/445656518944251904
Does this mean Hollet doesn't think she could beat Vaughan and thinks she has a better chance against Freeland instead?
University-Rosedale also has, as we saw from the By-election and Provincial election the base of the NDP support in the old TS, Hollett has a much better chance, echoing the above, winning in UR than in SFY. My hope is that IF Cuddy is running, SFY would be the most electable riding for him; he would be a STAR candidate for the NDP and that can play well in a riding with an equally star candidate (locally star at least), they would cancel each other out to some degree. Cuddy would get tons of media coverage and as we know the waterfront is electable for the NDP (2008 and 2011 the NDP generally won(2008) and owned(2011) the waterfront polls), the area I would say leans Liberal but still has a swing vote to it, If the NDP begins to poll well the riding could get competative. Without Cuddy or an equally high profile candidate, the riding will stay Vaughan Liberal
Mon, 2015-01-12 10:19
#625
benhart
Some new candidates:
Samuel Blais-Bergeron is a candidate for the NPD in La Prairie.
Rosannie Filato is a candidate for the NPD in Sant-Léonard--Saint-Michel.
[...]
I don't think they are officially candidates yet. Their Facebook pages seem to indicate that they are still nomination candidates for those ridings.
Sorry, when I saw candidates I mean "candidates for the nomination". My bad!
just to add to the discussion I dont think that Samuel Blais-Bergeron will be able to stop former ndp candidate Sonia Jurado from winning the nomination in La Prairie.
Link to Sonia Jurado Nomination announcement
Rosannie Filato will certainly have her work cut out for her as Roberta Peressini has been working the riding association in Sant-Léonard--Saint-Michel for almost a year and is expected to seek the nomination and the changes she has made to her facebook page indicates she just about ready to jump in.
Mon, 2015-01-12 10:43
#626
With Yvon Godin retiring (remember he knocked off a sitting cabinet minister) that leaves Pat Martin and Peter Stoffer the only left of the NDP class of 1997.
Mon, 2015-01-12 13:25
#627
How many libs from the 'class of 97' are there left? 18 years is a long time Terry.
Tue, 2015-01-13 00:41
#628
Very little chance of the libs winning back Ac-Bat. Godin will support the local NDP candidate and it will be public support.
But you're not really basing your prediction on anything particularly solid. Godin supporting the NDP candidate is expected and normal. Almost all departing MP's support their successors (unless there is some sort of personal grudge or feud going on). But that by itself does not predict which party will win the riding.
The riding does have a Liberal history, and remember that the Liberals are ahead in New Brunswick whereas the NDP are in 3rd. That wouldn't have mattered much if Godin was running, but for a new candidate it could effect the NDP's support in the riding. Another advantage for the Trudeau Liberals is that some voters may decide to vote Liberal knowing that Justin Trudeau is friends with NB Premier Gallant and may be looking for a better federal-provincial relationship.
As I said above, I'm not predicting a Liberal win like David Akin, because I think we need to see who the candidates are first and because the NDP could still retain some support after Godin retires. So I'm not making any predictions for Acadie-Bathurst yet - but I'm surprised you are.
Tue, 2015-01-13 13:18
#629
benhart
Suzanne Hrynyk has has Just announced that she will be seeking the ndp nomination for Kildonan–St. Paul this is great news because the current MP for that riding Joy Smith is retiring and will not run in the next election. The reason Mrs.Hrynyk will be a strong candidate is because she has strong roots in kildonan and in the 2014 municipal election she narrowly lost the Old Kildonan Ward to Devi Sharma. The vote total was 5,944 for Sharma to 5,732 for Hrynyk a 212 vote difference between them. Old Kildonan Ward mostly overlap with the federal riding of Kildonan–St. Paul this is a conservative riding but she has the potential to make this race very close.
Tue, 2015-01-13 13:24
#630
benhart
Maria Mourani is set to be acclaimed the NDP/NPD candidate for Ahuntsic-Cartierville on Wednesday Jan.21
Tue, 2015-01-13 14:22
#631
Very little chance of the libs winning back Ac-Bat. Godin will support the local NDP candidate and it will be public support.
But you're not really basing your prediction on anything particularly solid. Godin supporting the NDP candidate is expected and normal. Almost all departing MP's support their successors (unless there is some sort of personal grudge or feud going on). But that by itself does not predict which party will win the riding.
The riding does have a Liberal history, and remember that the Liberals are ahead in New Brunswick whereas the NDP are in 3rd. That wouldn't have mattered much if Godin was running, but for a new candidate it could effect the NDP's support in the riding. Another advantage for the Trudeau Liberals is that some voters may decide to vote Liberal knowing that Justin Trudeau is friends with NB Premier Gallant and may be looking for a better federal-provincial relationship.
As I said above, I'm not predicting a Liberal win like David Akin, because I think we need to see who the candidates are first and because the NDP could still retain some support after Godin retires. So I'm not making any predictions for Acadie-Bathurst yet - but I'm surprised you are.
People didn't just vote for Godin they voted to reject both Liberal and Tory govs who gutted EI. And they voted with massive percentages. If the votes had ever been close Id be wary of predicting but as it is its a safe NDP seat. Godin will back the nominee. There no indication of any change other than people are sad he is leaving.
My own riding is a likely tory hold. Mike Allen also won with huge %... but his reign here has not been nearly as long as Godin's.
Tue, 2015-01-13 14:42
#632
montrealer58
Anti-Liberal spree? Yesterday I posted a long diatribe about how Trudeau could close the deal with Canada. The main response was to doubt the Liberals could get a majority (which is odd for a Liberal supporter) - and that I do not rule out -, to deny that there could be more Tory votes in the West Island (which could have unpredictable effects on both Liberal and NDP outcomes), and to claim that a moderate nationalist Quebec NDP supporter was a 'hardcore separatist'.
Today however I am not so optimistic about Tory fortunes, and I would love to see them go down, as I hope you do too. Yet even so we cannot rule a Tory majority out either. People might think, "you made the mess, now you clean it up".
With Harper's massive economic failure, all possibilities have blown open for the next election. No one should rule out any possibility, of which I have enumerated 12.
If Trudeau comes out with significant, verifiable, and legitimate plans for a restructuring of the Canadian economy along sustainable lines, I think many people will be willing to give him a bye. If he can show a little humility about past Liberal errors it will look very well on him.
Recent news from Quebec show that the massive pools of capital are willing to get into infrastructure, without a significant effect on government capital requirements. Increasingly, it seems that the money in this country is more progressive than its Prime Minister.
Liberals should be making hay on this, instead of being concerned about what an idiot like me would say.
Tue, 2015-01-13 17:25
#633
Suzanne Hrynyk has has Just announced that she will be seeking the ndp nomination for Kildonan–St. Paul this is great news because the current MP for that riding Joy Smith is retiring and will not run in the next election. The reason Mrs.Hrynyk will be a strong candidate is because she has strong roots in kildonan and in the 2014 municipal election she narrowly lost the Old Kildonan Ward to Devi Sharma. The vote total was 5,944 for Sharma to 5,732 for Hrynyk a 212 vote difference between them. Old Kildonan Ward mostly overlap with the federal riding of Kildonan–St. Paul this is a conservative riding but she has the potential to make this race very close.
But the NDP is running 3rd in Manitoba federally right now, and is being dragged down by the provincial Selinger problems.
It is most likely the Liberals who have the potential to take seats from the Conservatives in Manitoba in 2015.
Former NDP cabinet minister MaryAnn Mihychuk is the Liberal candidate in Kildonan-St. Paul, so she's a candidate that hopefully both Liberals and NDPers will get behind in order to beat the Cons.
Tue, 2015-01-13 18:12
#634
benhart
Suzanne Hrynyk has has Just announced that she will be seeking the ndp nomination for Kildonan–St. Paul this is great news because the current MP for that riding Joy Smith is retiring and will not run in the next election. The reason Mrs.Hrynyk will be a strong candidate is because she has strong roots in kildonan and in the 2014 municipal election she narrowly lost the Old Kildonan Ward to Devi Sharma. The vote total was 5,944 for Sharma to 5,732 for Hrynyk a 212 vote difference between them. Old Kildonan Ward mostly overlap with the federal riding of Kildonan–St. Paul this is a conservative riding but she has the potential to make this race very close.
But the NDP is running 3rd in Manitoba federally right now, and is being dragged down by the provincial Selinger problems.
It is most likely the Liberals who have the potential to take seats from the Conservatives in Manitoba in 2015.
Former NDP cabinet minister MaryAnn Mihychuk is the Liberal candidate in Kildonan-St. Paul, so she's a candidate that hopefully both Liberals and NDPers will get behind in order to beat the Cons.
yes MaryAnn Mihychuk was a NDP cabinet minster and left provincial politics when the Manitoba NDP was still popular under Gary Doer. The fact still remains that she has no political base in Kildonan-St. Paul she served the riding's of st.James and later Minto which is mostly the federal riding of Winnipeg Centre. As for the NDP slump in the polls in Manitoba Suzanne Hrynyk is a well known new democrat and even a greg shelinger supporter and still managed to make Old Kildonan a tight race when she should have lost in a blowout. MaryAnn Mihychuk is a great candidate running in the wrong riding. She will boost the liberal numbers but with Suzanne Hrynyk as the NDP candidate there is no way she comes in first or second in Kildonan-St. Paul more than likely she comes in a close third in a tight three-way race with the conservatives holding the seat. MaryAnn Mihychuk might would have had a shot if the NDP ran somebody other than Suzanne Hrynyk so Mrs.Mihychuk should hope she loses the nomination.
Wed, 2015-01-14 03:43
#635
So if there's a risk that the NDP running Suzanne Hrynyk could result in the vote being split and the seat staying Conservative, then why is Hrynyk running?
Wouldn't it be best to let Mihychuk try to beat the Conservatives and win Kildonan-St. Paul? The NDP is not doing well in Manitoba right now, but there is the potential for Liberal gains. The Liberals didn't do well in this riding in 2011, but they have come close to winning it in the past.
Wed, 2015-01-14 04:02
#636
People didn't just vote for Godin they voted to reject both Liberal and Tory govs who gutted EI. And they voted with massive percentages. If the votes had ever been close Id be wary of predicting but as it is its a safe NDP seat. Godin will back the nominee. There no indication of any change other than people are sad he is leaving. My own riding is a likely tory hold. Mike Allen also won with huge %... but his reign here has not been nearly as long as Godin's.
1. It's only in the last couple of elections that voters in Acadie-Bathurst voted NDP by massive percentages. If you look at Godin's first few elections, they were close. In 1997, 2000, etc. he won by about 5 or 6 points. It was only in the last couple of elections where he started winning by huge margins.
2. A safe seat is one that votes for a particular party decade after decade and which elects multiple MP's from that party. To become a safe seat, the riding in question has to be one where the party can retain the seat even when a popular incumbent retires. We have not seen that in Acadie-Bathurst yet since it has only ever elected one NDP MP!
3. The fact that Godin will back the NDP candidate is irrelevant. I'm not sure why you keep mentioning it. It's normal for MP's to back their successors. The same thing will be happening in the other 40 ridings that have retiring MP's in 2015! Eg. Liberal MP Ted Hsu is supporting new Liberal candidate Mark Gerretsen in Kingston & the Islands. That's normal.
4. Whereas Godin could have still got re-elected with low NDP numbers in New Brunswick, we don't know yet whether that will be the case for his successor. If the Liberals are still leading in New Brunswick by the time of the election and the NDP is still a distant 3rd (currently at 16% in the latest CRA poll), then there aren't going to be any guarantees for the new NDP candidate.
5. New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant is friends with Justin Trudeau and it's possible that more NBers may want to elect an MP who will be in a party on close terms with the Premier, particularly if it looks like Trudeau could be a future PM.
So shouldn't you be taking the above factors into consideration before predicting that Acadie-Bathurst is a 'safe seat' for the NDP?
Wed, 2015-01-14 08:31
#637
So if there's a risk that the NDP running Suzanne Hrynyk could result in the vote being split and the seat staying Conservative, then why is Hrynyk running?
Wouldn't it be best to let Mihychuk try to beat the Conservatives and win Kildonan-St. Paul? The NDP is not doing well in Manitoba right now, but there is the potential for Liberal gains. The Liberals didn't do well in this riding in 2011, but they have come close to winning it in the past.
The ManitobaNDP has actually had a pretty decent surge in membership thanks to the leadership race http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/01/09/manitoba-ndp-2015-membership_n_6... and this has given Selinger an opportunity to explain in greater detail the whys of the PST increase (its about time we talk responsibly about taxing and the greater good is brings), Ashton is talking about opening up Renewal; all in all this is looking to be a good thing for the NDP in the province. Polls in MAN will be decieving, this has been discussed before i'm sure, but while province wide it looks bad (right now) the Party is still very competative in Winnipeg (someone can correct me but the NDP were either even or ahead of the PCs in Winnipeg?). So like the last election the PCs win rural South in big big margins while the NDP wins the city and north... the NDP can still form the next government. Ok just a side note.
my question is why would Mihychuk not run say in her own riding? or why not Saint Boniface? that is very competative for the Liberals while not so much for the NDP, and god knows I'd like to see Glover gone. The Liberals were second here in 2011, While the NDP was second in Kildonan-St.Paul and Hyrnyk is locally known here in Kildonan while Mihychuk is frankly a nobody here. This is an issue that the Liberals are splitting the progressive vote not the NDP, its more Liberal arrogance in my opinion.
Wed, 2015-01-14 08:42
#638
Astoundingly Debater is calling on the NDP to withdraw from the Kildonan St Paul race and support the Liberal candidate.
Not only did the NDP run second in that riding last time, under the new boundaries the result would have been:
C 58.5%
N 30.1%
L 7.9%
Of course the party of entitlement is entitled to a clear run at this rding having a base of fully one quarter the base of the NDP.
Do you ever wonder Debater why no one repects you?
Wed, 2015-01-14 12:24
#639
If the Liberals cared one whit about so called "strategic voting" or about actually beating Conservatives they would, in Debater's parlance, stand down and not split the vote in a seat where they got single digits last time. But of course they don't actually care about these things, it's a bullshit script they use to scare the less informed voters on the progressive side of the equation.
Wed, 2015-01-14 13:20
#640
Nicky, that was in 2011. Jack Layton was NDP leader and Michael Ignatieff was Liberal leader. We are now in 2015 and Mulcair is running 3rd in Manitoba and has performed very poorly in by-elections there (eg. Brandon-Souris & Provencher).
If you're going to quote 2011 results, why not compare the results of Brandon-Souris & Provencher? The NDP finished 2nd in those ridings in 2011 and yet a distant 3rd in them in 2013 during the by-elections. It was the Liberals who finished 2nd to the Cons in both those ridings in November 2013.
So how do you know the NDP isn't going to fall to 3rd in Kildonan-St. Paul?
Wed, 2015-01-14 14:18
#641
You seem to be overlooking the fact that ridings have histories and trends. So a rural AB or MB seat where no one came within a mile of beating a Tory in recent history saw movement between one oppo party for the other without an actual accompanying campaign. It means little. In a general election trends matter and for the Liberals (or in this case one of their supporters) to suggest that a riding where in recent history the NDP have been the main opposition to the Tories but now the NDP should "stand aside" for the Liberal is absurd and insulting to the voters. Not even touching the vacuousness of The Hair and his utter emptiness and lack of qualifications for the job he is nepotistically assuming he's entitled to, the math alone belies your suggestion. Will the Libs go from losing their deposit to winning the seat? I doubt it. In fact either way I'd be surprised to see this MB seat go anything but Tory this election, but it won't be the third party with the best chance here.
And all THAT said, you persist in this ridiculous fantasy of a world where polls this far out from an actual election (and the accompanying campaign) mean anything vis-a-vis who is "best positioned" to win anywhere. In my home-base, no one felt the NDP could seriously win Dartmouth last election but the campaign changed things. Imagine if the NDP had not targeted the seat so as not to "split the vote" and "risk a Tory win", Robert Chisholm, who has turned out to be an astoundingly responsive and effective constituency MP would never have won. One could cite similar examples from across the country. Campaigns matter and giving up, especially in areas with more historical claim than your dogs' breakfast of a party, flies in the face of reality and common sense.
Wed, 2015-01-14 14:29
#642
Charles, I didn't say the NDP should actually withdraw from the race in Kildonan-St. Paul. I said that a lot has changed since 2011, and that election was an aberation. Historically the Liberals have been very competitive in Kildonan-St. Paul, and came within a couple hundred votes of beating Joy Smith in 2004, and a strong second in 2006. I was pointing out that the NDP is not doing well in Manitoba now compared to 2011 and that Nicky's 2011 numbers are outdated. I backed that up by pointing out the by-elections that have taken place since then. And they were major changes in votes - not just one opposition party moving slightly in front of another one. Btw, if the NDP are interested in winning Kildonan-St. Paul, why has it taken until now for a candidate to enter the race? The Liberals have had a candidate there for 6 months.
And the main reason that Chisholm won in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour (and only by a narrow margin) is because Ignatieff weighed down Mike Savage, as he did to so many other Liberal candidates throughout the country. Chisholm has turned out to be an incredibly arrogant MP, btw. I couldn't believe it when I saw him on CTV Power Play a couple of years ago and he tried to put down the Liberal Party because it was a small party that only had 35 seats! Guess he forgot the NDP was a small party for its first 50 years! Chisholm is the NDP MP I would most like to see defeated in 2015, and with the Liberals well ahead of the NDP in Nova Scotia right now, there's a good chance of that happening.
Wed, 2015-01-14 14:45
#643
Charles, I didn't say the NDP should actually withdraw from the race in Kildonan-St. Paul. I said that a lot has changed since 2011, and that election was an aberation. Historically the Liberals have been very competitive in Kildonan-St. Paul, and came within a couple hundred votes of beating Joy Smith in 2004, and a strong second in 2006. I was pointing out that the NDP is not doing well in Manitoba now compared to 2011 and that Nicky's 2011 numbers are outdated. I backed that up by pointing out the by-elections that have taken place since then. And they were major changes in votes - not just one opposition party moving slightly in front of another one. Btw, if the NDP are interested in winning Kildonan-St. Paul, why has it taken until now for a candidate to enter the race? The Liberals have had a candidate there for 6 months.
Seriously? We are a number of months away from an election and this is a more-than-reasonable window in which to nominate candidates. There are seast in QC which the NDP are the frontrunners to win and are nominating now or will later. Specious argument at best.
And the main reason that Chisholm won in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour (and only by a narrow margin) is because Ignatieff weighed down Mike Savage, as he did to so many other Liberal candidates throughout the country. Chisholm has turned out to be an incredibly arrogant MP, btw. I couldn't believe it when I saw him on CTV Power Play a couple of years ago and he tried to put down the Liberal Party because it was a small party that only had 35 seats! Guess he forgot the NDP was a small party for its first 50 years! Chisholm is the NDP MP I would most like to see defeated in 2015, and with the Liberals well ahead of the NDP in Nova Scotia right now, there's a good chance of that happening.
The first part of this is exactly my point! Elections matter. Iggy was flying high pre-election. The campaign saw him crash. The Libs ran a terrible campaign with an unappealing, though qualified leader. Who's to say what this campaign will hold with an appeaing, though unqualified leader? Voters could be duped and vote for his minions en masse, or they could see through the paper-thin veneer he's got going on and move against him en masse. I don't know. Neither do you. Yet you have the gall to suggest New Democrats should de facto stand down in favour of said minions to beat the Tories (which is not my primary goal so screw the very premise) based on what *might* happen in an election months away.
As to Chisholm, well that's all the eye of the Lib-beholder. I think he's been an outstanding MP and not the slightest bit arrogant and was delighted to see him defeat an overrated arrogant do nothing like Savage. And noting the tinyness of the Liberal caucus? Necessary gamesmanship needed to remind voters that despite the Liberal-media assiduously pretending otherwise, the NDP are the Official Opposition and the Liberals are the Distant Third Party. A fact voters will need to seriously consider when looking at who they might want to replace the Harperites with and the absurdly long haul of The Hair needing to pick up in the neighbourhood of *135 seats* to win the election outright and the NDP needing less than half as many. I applaud him for reminding voters of that fact.
(BTW, you say you aren't suggesting the NDP withdraw from the race yet you say: "Wouldn't it be best to let Mihychuk try to beat the Conservatives and win Kildonan-St. Paul?" What else could you possibly mean by that? I have no desire to see Mihychuk win anything and think the road ahead of her is longer than that of the NDP in that seat.)
Wed, 2015-01-14 14:45
#644
benhart
Nicky, that was in 2011. Jack Layton was NDP leader and Michael Ignatieff was Liberal leader. We are now in 2015 and Mulcair is running 3rd in Manitoba and has performed very poorly in by-elections there (eg. Brandon-Souris & Provencher).
If you're going to quote 2011 results, why not compare the results of Brandon-Souris & Provencher? The NDP finished 2nd in those ridings in 2011 and yet a distant 3rd in them in 2013 during the by-elections. It was the Liberals who finished 2nd to the Cons in both those ridings in November 2013.
So how do you know the NDP isn't going to fall to 3rd in Kildonan-St. Paul?
Debater you are right the NDP is running 3rd in Manitoba and I would agree with you that if the NDP ran a inadequate candidate MaryAnn Mihychuk would probably be able to appeal to NDP supporters in Kildonan-St. Paul. The thing is they are running a strong local new democrat in Suzanne Hrynyk who as i explained has a ton of support in kildonan. She was for 8 years a member and the chair of the Winnipeg school board before deciding in 2014 to run for Winnipeg city council. If she wins the nomination which is very likely she will insure the NDP at least 2nd place in Kildonan-St. Paul.
If the liberals had thought it out better they would have asked MaryAnn Mihychuk to run in Winnipeg Centre where she served 2 provincial riding that overlaps with most of Winnipeg Centre. She is well known in Winnipeg Centre and Had a history of racking up huge Majorities in Minto which is basically downtown Winnipeg. The real problem for her is with Hrynyk running in Kildonan-St. Paul she will be hard press to move the liberals from 3rd place.
Wed, 2015-01-14 14:57
#645
benhart
Charles, I didn't say the NDP should actually withdraw from the race in Kildonan-St. Paul. I said that a lot has changed since 2011, and that election was an aberation. Historically the Liberals have been very competitive in Kildonan-St. Paul, and came within a couple hundred votes of beating Joy Smith in 2004, and a strong second in 2006. I was pointing out that the NDP is not doing well in Manitoba now compared to 2011 and that Nicky's 2011 numbers are outdated. I backed that up by pointing out the by-elections that have taken place since then. And they were major changes in votes - not just one opposition party moving slightly in front of another one. Btw, if the NDP are interested in winning Kildonan-St. Paul, why has it taken until now for a candidate to enter the race? The Liberals have had a candidate there for 6 months.
Debater it was well know in that riding that the NDP would need a high profile candidate to counter act the liberals and there is no higher profile local NDP candidate for Kildonan-St. Paul than Suzanne Hrynyk she had been considering a run in Winnipeg North but With Joy Smith stepping down it made Kildonan-St. Paul her home riding more acceptable she would not have entered the nomination had Joy Smith stayed on for the Conservatives.
Wed, 2015-01-14 15:19
#646
People didn't just vote for Godin they voted to reject both Liberal and Tory govs who gutted EI. And they voted with massive percentages. If the votes had ever been close Id be wary of predicting but as it is its a safe NDP seat. Godin will back the nominee. There no indication of any change other than people are sad he is leaving. My own riding is a likely tory hold. Mike Allen also won with huge %... but his reign here has not been nearly as long as Godin's.
1. It's only in the last couple of elections that voters in Acadie-Bathurst voted NDP by massive percentages. If you look at Godin's first few elections, they were close. In 1997, 2000, etc. he won by about 5 or 6 points. It was only in the last couple of elections where he started winning by huge margins.
Its been 18 years and his % never stopped growing. 2000 was 15 years ago.
2. A safe seat is one that votes for a particular party decade after decade and which elects multiple MP's from that party. To become a safe seat, the riding in question has to be one where the party can retain the seat even when a popular incumbent retires. We have not seen that in Acadie-Bathurst yet since it has only ever elected one NDP MP!
Pretty irrelevant. The issue that got Godin elected was the same one that is a major issue this year, EI.
3. The fact that Godin will back the NDP candidate is irrelevant. I'm not sure why you keep mentioning it. It's normal for MP's to back their successors. The same thing will be happening in the other 40 ridings that have retiring MP's in 2015! Eg. Liberal MP Ted Hsu is supporting new Liberal candidate Mark Gerretsen in Kingston & the Islands. That's normal.
Its not irrelevant when the candidate had such a huge lead. It would be if his lead has been marginal. I dont understand how you cant see the simple fact of this.
4. Whereas Godin could have still got re-elected with low NDP numbers in New Brunswick, we don't know yet whether that will be the case for his successor. If the Liberals are still leading in New Brunswick by the time of the election and the NDP is still a distant 3rd (currently at 16% in the latest CRA poll), then there aren't going to be any guarantees for the new NDP candidate.
NB doesnt vote 16% uniformly. We see that with tory leads that are also massive even tho naitonally they were half to a third of that here. NB ridings have a streak of character that makes them vote very highly to one side. The local candidate is far above the national average as the reason what aprty people vote for.
5. New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant is friends with Justin Trudeau and it's possible that more NBers may want to elect an MP who will be in a party on close terms with the Premier, particularly if it looks like Trudeau could be a future PM.
Gallant is on a massive austerity regime that makes anything the feds did pale in comparison. They recruited a former Harper Tory Deputy Minister to get that regime in place this year.
So shouldn't you be taking the above factors into consideration before predicting that Acadie-Bathurst is a 'safe seat' for the NDP?
I think you are ignoring simple fgacts that overwhelm here. You dont change a generation of electors overnight. And Trudeau has made no promises of a fiscal nature, short of no tax increase for any rich man or corporation or rectifications of EI to gain any major move in that riding. If anything Gallant and Trudeau are champions of the Chretien Martin years of austerity that got Godin elected in the first place.
Wed, 2015-01-14 17:34
#647
The issue that got Godin elected was the same one that is a major issue this year, EI.
Correct, but you forget to mention the big differences between now and 1997! 
1. It's the Federal Conservatives who are in office and who are the ones that Atlantic Canadians are angry with. So that's a reversal of the circumstances that were in existence back in 1997 when Godin won the seat. Now it's the Liberals who are ahead in the region. When Godin got elected the Liberals had a bad year across the Atlantic and Chrétien lost a lot of seats there.
2. In 1997 the NDP also benefitted from having a Maritimes leader in Alexa McDonough who was popular in the region. That's not the case with Mulcair as he is running 3rd in the Atlantic provinces and CRA President Don Mills said last week that he is underperforming compared to Layton. The NDP has its lowest numbers in the Atlantic since the 2000 election at the moment.
So a different set of circumstances exist now. As I said above, I am not predicting a Liberal win in Acadie-Bathurst. All I'm saying is that you can't predict an NDP win, either. It's likely to be a close race based on a whole series of factors.
Here's a detailed analysis on the riding by Eric Grénier today. He explains the factors in the NDP's favour and the factors in the Liberals' favour.
With Godin retiring, is Acadie-Bathurst at play?
http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/01/with-godin-retiring-is-acadie-b...
Wed, 2015-01-14 17:52
#648
The issue that got Godin elected was the same one that is a major issue this year, EI.
Correct, but you forget to mention the big differences between now and 1997!
1. It's the Federal Conservatives who are in office and who are the ones that Atlantic Canadians are angry with. So that's a reversal of the circumstances that were in existence back in 1997 when Godin won the seat. Now it's the Liberals who are ahead in the region. When Godin got elected the Liberals had a bad year across the Atlantic and Chrétien lost a lot of seats there.
Actually, the circumstances are quite similar, in that the incumbent government was gutting EI while pandering to corporate interests. Time for the Martimes to try the party backed by labour instead of Bay St.
Wed, 2015-01-14 18:08
#649
Yes, Atlantic Canada does seem to have a death wish politically. Why are they so out of touch?
Wed, 2015-01-14 19:36
#650
Yes, Atlantic Canada does seem to have a death wish politically. Why are they so out of touch?
Unfortunately, it seems that a lot of Atlantic Canadians would rather listen to pleasant lies than be told unpleasant truths; which is how the provincial Liberals got elected in Nova Scotia 2013.
(My first entry from my first-ever laptop!)
Thu, 2015-01-15 00:27
#651
Yes, Atlantic Canada does seem to have a death wish politically. Why are they so out of touch?
When we arent voting for a specific candidate we are voting to kick people out. In that Acadie Bathurst has already been doing that repeatedly for 18 years. And the mood is no different this time out. If ABC is as much a factor as a Godin supported candidate AB will stay in the NDP fold. What could win the riding for the libs which is high in seasonal work is a promise to reverse EI changes back to pre Martin days. 60% of gross income and no penalties when on EI to be forced to work for 30% less and drive an hour away...
But how likely is that?