Sudbury By-Election, 2015

"I would be surprised if the MP didn't have similar numbers in hand when he made that decision," he said. "He might have seen the writing on the wall, as it were."

Conjecture for sure but let's go back in time. When Glenn ran for the federal NDP in 2008, NDP was polling in the teens, so that "same kind of thinking" of "opportunism" should have played out.

People keep forgetting that until 2011, NDP was polling in the teens, but people ran for the party because they believed their values alined with that party's vision.

When one only goes by polls, one loses sight of values, beliefs, practices, policies. And one forgets how they got elected. Anyway, I believe that what will have effect in this election, is that the Wynne Liberals are getting a ton of bad press provincially and will also play out on people: gas plants scandal reared its ugle head again and just doesn't go away; 8 billion dollars wasted through P3s, down grading of credit rating which in turn eats up more public dollars for spending; union negotiations with the province such as OPSEU/education sector; and past actions of Liberals ignoring the North.

NorthReport wrote:

Thibeault in for fight in Sudbury: Poll 

It's going to be a horse race in the provincial byelection for Sudbury, according to a new poll, although one of the jockeys hasn't even been determined yet.

A phone survey conducted Sunday by Mainstreet Technologies found the Liberals, under newly appointed candidate Glenn Thibeault, out in front by three percentage points over the NDP, which is still in the process of selecting its banner bearer.

The pollster, which used interactive voice recording technology, asked a sampling of Sudburians, "If the provincial byelection were held today, which party would you vote for?'

Of the 602 who responded, 31% said they would vote Grit, while the NDP carried nearly as much support, at 28%.

The Progressive Conservatives, who will field Paula Peroni again as candidate, garnered 15% in the poll, with 12% indicating support for an independent candidate and 11% undecided.

The race back in June, when all of Ontario went to the polls, was also a close one in Sudbury. In the end, the NDP's Joe Cimino prevailed over Liberal Andrew Olivier, with 42.4% of the vote to the latter's 39.3%. Peroni finished a distant third, with just under 14%.

Cimino has since stepped down, citing family reasons, while Olivier has been pushed aside by his party in favour of former MP Thibeault, who is making not just a jurisdictional jump to run provincially, but switching his political affiliation to do so.

Apart from the basic question of which party Sudburians intend to support in the byelection, Mainstreet also asked voters how they feel about this move.

Noting that "NDP MP Glenn Thibeault is resigning his federal seat to run for the Liberal Party in the provincial byelection," the pollster inquired: "Do you approve or disapprove?"

A striking 46% of respondents -- almost half -- said they disapprove of the Thibeault transition. Less than a third -- 32% -- expressed approval.

Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Technologies, said it's an interesting figure, but one that likely won't translate into a big statement at the polls.

"Approval or disapproval of that decision won't necessarily reflect in the actual votes," he said. "It might just be people didn't like how it was done, or when it was done, but will still vote provincial Liberal."

He noted the federal Liberals under Justin Trudeau are polling strongly in Sudbury at present and that was likely taken into account by Thibeault in weighing his options.

"I would be surprised if the MP didn't have similar numbers in hand when he made that decision," he said. "He might have seen the writing on the wall, as it were."

While Thibeault was handpicked by Premier Kathleen Wynne, the NDP has five individuals seeking to replace Cimino -- John Caruso, Dave Battaino, Suzanne Shawbonquit, Jesse Gaudet and Paul Loewenberg -- with a nomination meeting set for Jan. 18 at the Steelworkers Hall.

Olivier hasn't indicated his next move, although there is some momentum through social media for him to run as an independent.

http://www.thesudburystar.com/2014/12/22/thibeault-in-for-fight-in-sudbu...

Interesting!  Thanks for posting this, NR.  

Ken Burch wrote:

What would Sudbury possibly have to gain by swinging to the right and voting Liberal in the byelection?

Here's a point the NDP can use:

Why should anyone vote for Thibeault as an NDPer-turned-Liberal?  How do they know he won't just cross over to the PC's a month later?

Clearly, Thibeault has established himself as a person with no principles and no core values.   And also a liar, since he gave no indication to Mulcair in his last meeting that he was even considering this move. 

This is why he is with the Libs now and why they wanted him so much.

scott16 wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

What would Sudbury possibly have to gain by swinging to the right and voting Liberal in the byelection?

Here's a point the NDP can use:

Why should anyone vote for Thibeault as an NDPer-turned-Liberal?  How do they know he won't just cross over to the PC's a month later?

Clearly, Thibeault has established himself as a person with no principles and no core values.   And also a liar, since he gave no indication to Mulcair in his last meeting that he was even considering this move. 

This is why he is with the Libs now and why they wanted him so much.

What does it say about the Federal NDP caucus that they have so many opportunists & floor crossers?

Perhaps Debater the more interesting inquiry is "What does it say about the Liberals?"

It is true that they have poached a number of former New Democrats over the years. Much of this, as is obvious in Thibeault's case has been by sheer bribery. The Liberals are more than happy to lard their ranks with opportunists more interested in their own advancement than their constituents. Such people have a natural home in the party of entitlement.

Luring opponents with blandishments is a repeated Liberal strategy. In the long run however both the party and the defefectors tend to get what they deserve.

Thibeault may well be a case in point. He thought he would have a soft landing into the provincial cabinet but now he is in a dog-fight in the by-election. And the sheen is certainly coming off Kathleen Wynne as well with her excuse of "electoral urgency" for foisting Thibeault on the riding association without a contested nomination.

Just look at the readers' comments to the various stories in the Sudbury Star for local reaction. The Liberals may turn out to have been too clever by half.

The Liberals seem to have badly miscalculated over the Thibeault defection:

http://www.theenterprisebulletin.com/2014/12/26/wynne-hits-new-political...

Loewenberg backing Shawbonquit in NDP race http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/01/04/loewenberg-backing-shawbonquit-in-ndp-race?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

A New Democrat who was seeking the nomination to run in a provincial byelection in Sudbury has withdrawn his name from that race, and asked his supporters to back newcomer Suzanne Shawbonquit.

Paul Loewenberg, who came within 501 votes of defeating long-time Liberal MPP Rick Bartolucci in the 2011 provincial election, said he believes Shawbonquit's experience and entrepreneurial background make her a perfect candidate.

The announcement was made Sunday afternoon at the restaurant Loewenberg manages, the Laughing Buddha, and was attended by a who's who of NDP supporters.

Timmins James Bay NDP MP Charlie Angus introduced Loewenberg, who started by urging NDP supporters not to worry. There would be a happy outcome to his announcement.

snip

Shawbonquit has worked in the television and film industry, been active in not-for-profit organizations and in running a consulting firm. She told a packed audience that she brings integrity, fairness and a sense of social justice to the table.

Politics does not have to be cut-throat, said Shawbonquit, "nor do we have to buy into corruption," she said.

Oliver is running at 64% in the online poll that accompanies the story.

This looks like it may become a fiasco for Wynne and Thibeault.

Wow, what a blow for the Liberals and Wynne. Liberals are toast. Olivier will bleed support from both the Grits and Dippers, but it will be Wynne coming up as the ultimate loser.

From the comment section (although I know it isn't scientific data), posters believe Olivier shows integrity and all but don't believe he will win or show well.

It's also a pretty shrewd move by Wynne to call a by-election so quickly. The NDP has yet to nominate a candidate and Olivier will need all the time he can get to organize and fundraise without a party machine. 

Quick question for the politicos: Would Olivier have access to his voter contacts when he ran as Grit, or would all that data be Liberal party property? Likewise, would Thibeault have access to his NDP voter lists?

I'm kind of disappointed that Olivier is running as an Independent.  I was hoping he would approach Justin Trudeau's team about running Federally in Sudbury this year.  He showed in June 2014 that he can be a strong campaigner.   Most people had claimed the NDP would win Sudbury in a landslide after Bartolucci retired (eg. check out some of the predictions here on Babble).  As it turned out, Olivier nearly beat Cimino despite getting a late start and having far fewer resources.

By running as an Independent, it will be tough for him to win.  Although he is well-respected and many people feel for him because of the way he has been treated by Wynne & Thibeault, his most likely effect in the race will be to increase the odds of a Horwath NDP win.  He's not only burning his provincial Liberal bridges now, but also his Federal chances.  Justin Trudeau & Gerald Butts are close to Kathleen Wynne and will not be able to take on a Federal candidate who has gone against Wynne like this.

An unfortunate waste of Mr. Olivier's talent, IMO.  But perhaps it is a matter of principle for him.  He may feel he has to do this.

nicky wrote:

Debater writes: " Justin Trudeau & Gerald Butts are close to Kathleen Wynne and will not be able to take on a Federal candidate who has gone against Wynne like this." They certainly do seem close in their manipulation of local nominations. It is also revealing that Debater mentions Trudeau and his Svengali Butts as if they were one and the same.

plus 100.

Having Oliver there is all about integrity and the open nomination process, and for sure it will be highlighted in every single debate in which Oliver gets to tell his story of being shunted to the side, and pressured to step aside and offered a bribe by the good old Liberals. It can't get better than that.

Priceless!

nicky wrote:

Perhaps Debater the more interesting inquiry is "What does it say about the Liberals?"

It is true that they have poached a number of former New Democrats over the years. Much of this, as is obvious in Thibeault's case has been by sheer bribery. The Liberals are more than happy to lard their ranks with opportunists more interested in their own advancement than their constituents. Such people have a natural home in the party of entitlement.

Luring opponents with blandishments is a repeated Liberal strategy. In the long run however both the party and the defefectors tend to get what they deserve.

Thibeault may well be a case in point. He thought he would have a soft landing into the provincial cabinet but now he is in a dog-fight in the by-election. And the sheen is certainly coming off Kathleen Wynne as well with her excuse of "electoral urgency" for foisting Thibeault on the riding association without a contested nomination.

Just look at the readers' comments to the various stories in the Sudbury Star for local reaction. The Liberals may turn out to have been too clever by half.

Or there is not as much difference between the parties as you imagine so it is more like switching from working from one company to another.

There is only one politician that I know of who resigned giving a change in philosophy as her reason. Maria Mourani left the Bloc on principle and became federalist on principle then joined the NDP.

Thibeault's principles and philosophy hasn't changed. He just sees a better vehicle for doing his job as a representative of the people of his community.

Do you have any evidence that this will result in a "dog-fight"?

nicky wrote:

Pondering just read up-thread for evidence of what I call a dog -fight in Sudbury.

A poll showing a dead heat, numerous critical media reports, a split in the Liberal riding assocaition. Dozens of letters to the editor slamming Wynne and her recent convert.

I have a high regard for dogs, especialy  my geat late wolfhound friend Angus so I am reluctant to elevate Liberlas to their exalted position.

As an American politician named Crump. once said of someoe like Glen Thibeault, "He has all the characteristics of a dog except loyalty."

Crump also said of another Liberal party type, " In all the art galleries of Paris there are 78 portraits of Judas Iscariot. None look alike but all of them bear a striking s resembalance to [Glen Thibeault]."

I looked at the polls and they don't seem troublesome to me. The first shows the Liberals still in the lead with the "scandal" fresh in people's mind. We all know the impact of individual events drops off rapidly. The second poll was just online I think on a conservative leaning paper.

That the NDP candidate quit after only 5 months and that the Liberals are in power could both have an equally strong or stronger impact on the decision of voters.

The economy is typically the number 1 concern when people mark their ballot.

I think the most important factor will be if they want a representative that will work with Wynne (even if they don't like her) or oppose her. Wynne has a majority regardless of who takes the seat. The opposition can criticize what she does but they can't change the outcome.  So would Sudbury profit more by electing Thibeault whom Wynne actively favors? If not who would be best to oppose her? Oliver because she shafted him or the NDP candidate?

People who voted NDP in the last election could decide to be pragmatic now that Wynne won a majority. They may decide they would rather be in her good graces and she favors Thibeault so he has her ear. Alternately they could want to send a message.

So early in her mandate I think they will go with pragmatism and elect Thibeault if they think he will do a good job for them but that's really just a guess because I have no insight into the riding or Ontario provincial politics in any depth.

janfromthebruce wrote:

Well they had a provincial liberal for like 18 years and sure didn't do Sudbury any good. The Liberals still ignored the north and use it and it's resources for Toronto. Remember when Liberals cancelled the northern train but all they can talk about is the necessity of having an expensive subway in downtown Toronto. Or how many northerners have lost their jobs in the pulp and paper industry, mining and so on.

Having a liberal representative means squat.

Not quite what happened in Toronto. See, the Liberals withdrew funding for TransitCity to nail David Miller's coffin shut so they could install Smitherman and dominate local and provincial politics there. Much of the funding for transit expansion went to York region in the 905. 905 is also an area which tends to swing back and forth between PCs and Liberals, so any government looking to be re-elected will pay that region some serious attention. Of course, this is a coincidence and not in any way related.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/08/kelly-mcparland-ontario-liberals...

http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/01/08/the-battle-for-sudbury-begins

Once again the Comments following this story are almost unanimous in opposing Thibeault.

Wynne and Thibeault must both be wishing they never engaged in this cynical stunt.

So what this means if people vote liberal, like the Harper Conservatives, they will maybe get tax dollars or Liberal pork. I see Liberals whining all the time, federally that they dispise how this is done federally but it's seems okay if the provincial liberals do this. Sad really the hypocrisy and double standard.

Anyway, in Kitchener-Waterloo when McGuinty tried to buy a seat it worked so well that they elected the much respected Catherine Fife. And in the last election, Fife increased her vote share.

Suzanne Shawbonquit will run for Sudbury New Democrats

and

Suzanne Shawbonquit to run for NDP in Sudbury byelection

Shawbonquit first Anishinaabe person to run in a provincial election Suzanne Shawbonquit will represent the NDP in Sudbury's Feb. 5 byelection.

Shawbonquit won the first ballot during the party's nomination meeting to choose a provincial candidate Sunday afternoon.

snip

She makes history as the first ever Anishinaabe person to run as a provincial candidate.

Shawbonquit received more than 50 per cent of the vote from a large group of NDP party members that packed the United Steelworkers Hall on Brady Street.

She beat out Dave Battaino, the former executive director of Big Brothers Big Sisters Sudbury and John Caruso, a consultant and former mayoral and councillor candidate, for the nomination.

Debater wrote:

nicky wrote:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/08/kelly-mcparland-ontario-liberals... http://www.thesudburystar.com/2015/01/08/the-battle-for-sudbury-begins Once again the Comments following this story are almost unanimous in opposing Thibeault. Wynne and Thibeault must both be wishing they never engaged in this cynical stunt.

Keep in mind that comments you find on political articles online don't always represent the average voter.  They represent those that are interested in politics and who have strong enough opinions to want to go and seek out the articles and participate in them.  The average Joe doesn't tend to do that or take that level of interest.

That's one of the reasons why anti-Harper comments are more common online because lots of Liberals & NDPers like to vent their frustration, but don't always represent the average Canadian's view of Harper.  Many Canadians like Harper and support him, and that shows up at the ballot box.

Still, I agree that Wynne & Thibeault didn't handle this as well as they should have and are at risk of losing the by-election.  On the other hand, it's also possible they could still prevail.  We'll find out next month.

But it does work both ways, i.e. the anti-Harper comments that you *do* find on-line tend to be more fringe-trolly than "average Canadian" (and are part of what give newspaper comment threads their bad name).

And come to think of it, what you're saying could just as well pertain to *Horwath* in last year's election, at least outside of the three downtown-Toronto-chattering-class seats she lost...

Seems like the NDP & PC's may have overplayed their hand in calling for an investigation into the Sudbury by-election.

It's certainly a questionable ethical move by Thibeault & Wynne, but there's no evidence of anything criminal taking place.

Debater wrote:

Seems like the NDP & PC's may have overplayed their hand in calling for an investigation into the Sudbury by-election.

It's certainly a questionable ethical move by Thibeault & Wynne, but there's no evidence of anything criminal taking place.

Debater wrote:

It's certainly a questionable ethical move by Thibeault & Wynne, but there's no evidence of anything criminal taking place.

That's a great slogan for your campaign material: "Vote Liberal! Our ethics may be questionable, but there's no evidence of anything criminal taking place." Run with it.

robbie_dee wrote:

Debater wrote:

It's certainly a questionable ethical move by Thibeault & Wynne, but there's no evidence of anything criminal taking place.

That's a great slogan for your campaign material: "Vote Liberal! Our ethics may be questionable, but there's no evidence of anything criminal taking place." Run with it.

Don't forget the involvement of an NDPer in this.

The idea of being a traitor to a party is essentially flawed. Are PCs who left the Tories and joined the Liberals traitors? Parties are to serve us, not the other way around. We don't leave parties. They leave us. Ever heard of democracy?