As Eric Grenier says in the analysis above, the NDP does have the chance to retain Acadie-Bathhurst, but the Liberals also have a chance to win it back. As Grenier points out, the NDP has the worst numbers in the Maritimes since 2000 and so the next NDP candidate in A-B will be at risk of losing unless the Mulcair NDP gets its overall numbers up in the region.
Remember that in 2011, the Layton NDP got 30% of the vote in NB and the Liberals only got 22%. Now the Liberals are at about 46% in NB and the NDP are at about 17%. Big shift from 2011.
And then there's the Francophone vote. Francophones are the majority in A-B. They voted for Brian Gallant provincially. If they vote for Trudeau federally, the Liberals can win A-B back. Presumably Trudeau is leading Mulcair among Francophones based on the current numbers, but as Grenier says at his website, we don't have a federal linguistic breakdown for NB yet.