Latest polling thread Jan. 27 2015

Here are the polling results, using the process to eliminate herding, for the last election from best performance to worst performance in descending order, and the most accurate pollster is Ipsos Reid.

Will there be that much difference between the actual results and the pollsters in the upcoming 2015 election as there was in 2011, our last election? 

Herding:

Herding is a title given to a process that was created by a professional aggregator in the USA called Nate Silver who worked for years for the New York Times. And by-the-way, I am not aware of any aggregator in Canada that uses a process to prevent herding. What the process to prevent herding does is take the average of the last 3 weeks of polling and uses that figure divided by the numberpolls. The reason being is that some pollsters unfortunately may overinflate or underinflate the strength of certain political parties, and then just before the election, that same pollster will publish polls which are more accurate, so as to appear close to accurate. Legitimate pollstsers have nothing to worry about when the process to prevent herding process is used.

Federal Election 2011 Actual Results: Cons - 40%, NDP - 31%, Libs - 19%

Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 41% / 1% / 28% / 3% / 20% / 1% / 5%

Harris Decima / 36% / 4% / 30% / 1% / 21% / 2% / 7%

Angus Reid / 36% / 4% / 29% / 2% / 22% / 3% / 9%

Forum Research / 35% / 5% / 29% / 2% / 22% / 3% / 10%

Environics / 39% / 1% / 24% / 7% / 23% / 4% / 12%

Leger Marketing / 37% / 3% / 27% / 4% / 24% / 5% / 12%

Abacus  / 37% / 3% / 26% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 13%

EKOS / 35% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 26% / 5% / 15%

Nanos Research / 39% / 1% / 23% / 8% / 27% / 8% / 17%

Compas / 46% / 6% / 21% / 10% / 21% / 2% / 18%

 Innovative Research / 39% / 1% / 19% / 12% / 27% / 8% / 21%

Silver's website is: www.fivethirtyeight.com

What is it that Ipsos Reid does differently that makes it so accurate, most of the time?

I don't trust Ipsos or Forum in the least. I really think 2011 is a bad example to base your analysis on because unlike most elections there actually was a swift and significant shift in support near the end. Ipsos typically pumps up Con and NDP numbers while undercutting Lib numbers. Same with Harris Decima. It just so happened that their natural biases matched up with the shift that was happening away from the Libs and towards the Cons and NDP.

Polls or not polls, I remain convinced the NDP sits somewhere 24 and 27% and is in a better positioon to defeat Harper then the Liberals. There is simply not going to be real change by swapping "White" Cats for "Black Cats". They are the same party but with different power elites. The only way to beat Harper is to vote NDP. The fact that Trudeau is attacking the NDP shows the Libs know it. Quebec is going to vote NDP again, and the NDP's current levels of support are not going to decrease. Polls or not, if Harper wins, it'll be because so called Blue Libs, again vote Tory. In other words, Liberals will show once again they prefer Harper and his gang of thugs over the NDP, anytime. It'll be entirely, and solely, the Libs fault again!

That's understandable Brachina, as we have no way to know when a pollster publishes a poll whether or not it is accurate, and after all politics is a dirty game, unfortunately. Doing an analysis which prevents herding after an election is over is really the only way to know for sure what was going on with the pollsters. And yes last election there was a significant shift as mentioned by JTT, so the pollsters may have a better record for other elections. The 2011 election is the only one that I have done an analysis on federally. If someone else wants to do an analysis on another federal election that would be great. 

I did an analysis on the 2011 election and Ipsos Reid appears to have been the most accurate, and their most recent poll is showing the NDP in the mid-twenties. And yes ia couple of percentage points, one way or another way, amongst the 3 parties does matter, and that can be the reason why some attempt to discredit this pollstser or that pollster. As I mentioned after my analysis I was surprised Ipsos Reid was the most accurate for the 2011 election.

Another interesting analysis would be how each of the 3 parties do during an actual election campaign.

1,050 (+230) 

josh wrote:

http://www.probe-research.com/documents/150129%20Westman%20Federal%20Par...

Do you live in Manitoba, Josh? I do. People hate Selinger cause the MSM is telling them to. Whatever, Josh.

Winston wrote:

I think everyone can agree that the polls are bad right now, for the NDP and the Liberals. The fact is that the Liberals' and MSM's strategy of manufacturing a two-horse race with Harper and Trudeau going head-to-head is doomed to failure. Justin Trudeau just doesn't have the substance or competence to beat Harper. Even Liberal sympathizers I know acknowledge that Justin is a bit of an embarrassment, "but we HAVE to get rid of Harper, no matter what." Well unless things change, many people are going to go to the ballot box, compare their "two" choices, plug their noses and vote for Harper again.

Unless the NDP rebounds over the next several months, giving people the option of a competent alternative, look forward to 4 more years of Harper.

 

 I agree, except I think its possible for the rebound to happen during the election and it might be more likely because Mulcair will finally have the publics attention enough to prove his worth.

Winston wrote:

I think everyone can agree that the polls are bad right now, for the NDP and the Liberals.

The Liberals are doing great in the polls.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/20150116_slide1.jpg

All they have to do is bide their time until the election is called then release a credible platform.

Winston wrote:

  The fact is that the Liberals' and MSM's strategy of manufacturing a two-horse race with Harper and Trudeau going head-to-head is doomed to failure.

It has been a two horse race since Trudeau became leader of the Liberal party.

Winston wrote:

  Justin Trudeau just doesn't have the substance or competence to beat Harper. Even Liberal sympathizers I know acknowledge that Justin is a bit of an embarrassment, "but we HAVE to get rid of Harper, no matter what."

Liberal supporters don't see Trudeau as an embarrassment at all.

Winston wrote:

Well unless things change, many people are going to go to the ballot box, compare their "two" choices, plug their noses and vote for Harper again.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/samuel-getachew/justin-trudeau-federal-elec...

Trudeau is the most impressive, practical, and smart political leader since the Jean Chrétien era. Since taking over a near-bankrupt, third place, humiliated party less than two years ago, he has made it a growing political movement. The party is now well-organized, better funded, and has attracted strong candidates and volunteers that truly represent the new Canada. This was not achieved by way of political anointment or appointment, but by way of a fair and open political organization and competition.

Trudeau has the luck of being underestimated, like Jean Chrétien was, and the intelligence to turn to experienced people the way Pierre Trudeau and Lester B. Pearson did. Perhaps like all Liberals, there is the will to win in his blood. Given his family pedigree, perhaps the will to win is not only powerful but predestined. Yet if he achieves victory, it will not be just because of his last name, but because he works hard, performs well, knows his weaknesses, and plays to his strengths.

Scott, the latest poll on the question you ask is Forum

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Federal%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2001%2028)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

While I don't put too much faith in Forum it is broadly in agreement with other recent polls on leadership, although a little low for the NDP and high for the Liberals.

Harper: + 34 - 56 ? 10  overall -22

Trudeau: +43 -37     ? 20  overall +6

Mulcair: +40  - 29    ? 31  overall +11

If you eliminate the unknowns then it is 37% positive for Harper, 53 for Trudeau and 58 for Mulcair.

In Quebec:

Harper +30 -60 ie 33% positive

Trudeau +33 -44 = 43% positive

Mulcair +50 -25  = 67% positive.

So it does seem that Mulcair's nmbers may rise when he is better known

The last abacus and Angus Reid polls both had the NDP at 22%. The other numbers were nearly identical as well. Based on the fact that both have good track records and both agree with each other, I think it's fair to say these are close to the real numbers. Con and Liberal tied in the low thirties, NDP in the low twenties.

NorthReport wrote:

The NDP received 31% of the votes on May 2, 2011.

Here are some polling results for the NDP just before the last election was called, compared to what votes they actually received, and the difference:

Date - Pollster - Mar '11 - Actual Election

Mar 24 '11 - AR - 19% - 31%, Up 12%

Mar 24 24 '11 - LM - 19% - 31%, Up 12%

Mar 24 '11 - EKOS - 14% - 31%, Up 17%

Mar 23 '11 - IR - 16% - 31%, Up 15%

Mar 20 '11 - HD - 17% - 31%, Up 14% 

Mar 16 ' 11 - EKOS - 16% - 31%, Up 15%

Mar 15 '11 - NR - 20% - 31%, Up 11%

What's significant is not one single solitary pollster had an inkling what was coming, so when people start basing seat projections on polls that may well be 10 months away from a election, it is based entirely on voodoo science. Nothing more, and nothing less. Anyone posting seat projections right now is just trying to manipulate the voters. 

 

Of course,using that logic about pollsters one could also conclude that the NDP could be headed for a massive collapse....Assuming the polsters are using "voodoo science" and have no idea if the NDP is at 20%???

Applying the process to prevent herding in the Oct 14, 2008 Election

Election Results: C - 38%,  N - 18%,   L - 26%,  B - 10%

Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Bloc / Dif / Total Difference

Angus Reid / 38% / 0% / 26% / 0% / 19% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 1% - Phenomenal Results

Ipsos Reid / 37% 1% / 18% / 0% / 25% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 2% - Amazin' results as well 

Strategic Counsel / 36% / 2% / 27% / 1% / 19% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 4% - Not bad! 

Nanos / 36% / 2% / 20% / 2% / 26% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 5%

Segma / 35% / 1% / 23% / 3% / 21% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 6%

Harris Decima / 35% / 3% / 19% / 1% / 26% / 1% / 9% / 1% / 6% 

EKOS / 35% / 3%  / 19% / 1% / 24% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 6%

We can now put to bed the nonsense that Ipsos Reid is not an accurate pollster, eh! 

*Environics did publish a poll outside the 3 week analysis period used to prevent herding on Sep 2, 2008 as follows:

Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Bloc / Dif / Total Difference 

Environics / 38% / 2% / 19% / 1% / 28% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 5%

-------------------------------------------------------------

1370 (+320)

Like what has been expressed here many times by others, I used to believe that Ipso Reid was not that accurate, and that they favoured the right wing. 

Now, after doing the analysis to prevent herding, it's apparent I was incorrect and that it actually is Ipsos Reid that is probably Canada's most accurate federal pollster, followed by Angus Reid.

So based on this analysis I can confidently say the NDP is polling in the mid-twenties, and puts the NDP within striking distance of grabing that brass ring in October, 2015.  

montrealer58 wrote:

Trudeau can't get the centre-left vote who voted for Chretien and put the NDP in the doldrums for over a decade. Trudeau can't get into the top 2 in Quebec, and he can't hold Ontario. He needs to lead in one of those two administrative subdivisions. Harper is leading in Ontario, Mulcair is leading in Quebec, so there is nothing there for Trudeau. If Trudeau keeps sliding in the polls, he gets hit hard in the FPTP consequences. In the mid-to-high 20s, Trudeau will start getting PC Party-itis.

The sooner the Liberal Party goes the way of the PC Party of Canada, the better. 

1.  The Trudeau Liberals have been polling in 1st or 2nd in Quebec for the past 2 years.  Not sure what you mean when you say 'Trudeau can't get into the top 2 in Quebec'.  Btw, the most recent polls from Quebec pollsters (eg. CROP & Leger) had Trudeau ahead of Mulcair in Quebec prior to the Christmas holidays.

2.  The Trudeau Liberals have also been polling 1st or 2nd in Ontario for the past 2 years.  It's the NDP that is polling a distant 3rd in Ontario, so again I'm not sure what Ontario numbers you are looking at.  The NDP is projected to do pretty badly in the seat projections for Ontario right now on 308.com

3.  And if there was no Liberal Party, it would be even harder to vote out the Conservatives.  Why do you think the Conservatives view the Liberals as a threat?  They're the only ones that can take red tory & blue liberal votes away from the Conservatives.  These voters will go Conservative to block the NDP if they have to.  We saw that in 2011 in Ontario.

Debater wrote:

2.  The Trudeau Liberals have also been polling 1st or 2nd in Ontario for the past 2 years.  It's the NDP that is polling a distant 3rd in Ontario, so again I'm not sure what Ontario numbers you are looking at.  The NDP is projected to do pretty badly in the seat projections for Ontario right now on 308.com

You mean in a distant second as of the last poll in Ontario. I guess because the grave error of giving Kathleen Wynne a majority is beginning to sink in: cutting budgets to health care and education; closing schools; selling crown assets and another 8b in losses through P3s.

Heh. That was a real bomb dropping that list of 150 schools in the GTA to be put on the chopping block.

I thought that was a funny exchange between Thibeault and the PC candidate in that debate where he started going on about Harris and 100,000 job vuts, with her retorting "at least we said they were coming, when you are quitely laying off nurses" or something to that effect.

At this rate Harper should be able to spend all his time campaigning in the Prairies and BC, with Kathleen Wynne the "Privatization Premier", helping him out in Ontario.

The bottom of the lake is the limit at this rate.

Quote:

In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (41%, up 4 points) have surged past the Liberals (34%, down 3 points), breaking the dead heat the parties showed late last year, with the NDP (21%, down 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change) playing catch up.

Ipsos Ried

I guess because the grave error of giving Kathleen Wynne a majority is beginning to sink in: cutting budgets to health care and education; closing schools; selling crown assets and another 8b in losses through P3s.

Heh. That was a real bomb dropping that list of 150 schools in the GTA to be put on the chopping block.

I thought that was a funny exchange between Thibeault and the PC candidate in that debate where he started going on about Harris and 100,000 job vuts, with her retorting "at least we said they were coming, when you are quitely laying off nurses" or something to that effect.

At this rate Harper should be able to spend all his time campaigning in the Prairies and BC, with Kathleen Wynne the "Privatization Premier", helping him out in Ontario.

The bottom of the lake is the limit at this rate.

So on this thread, like every other one where LPC partisans, its become pretty obvious that we need to vote Liberal because...HARPER. Then when it is pointed out that LIBERALS like Wynn are cutting everything left right and center, runnnig deficits and selling out the public with money losingP3s, its either....CRICKETS, or, at least its not Harper.

Or the other beaut we get is well, he's going to tell us campaign but doesn't want anyone else to steal it, a childish notion. A truly, truly, chilidish notion. And this is despite the fact that Trudeau says he wants P3s even after the Wynnn experience shows its a bad idea.

And of course, the real joke in all of this, is then we New Dems get told WE ARE THE IDEOLOGUES, even though the Libs stick to things that have been CLEARLY SHOW NOT TO WORK!

It is mind boggling, truly mind boggling. And if that isn't enough, there are other people on this board who claim to be neutral or whatever the hell else they are who complain about "partisanship", with almost all of that aimed at NDP supporters.

Well, voting Liberal doens't get rid of Tory policies. So why don't all you Libs just be honest and admit its TOTALLY about power, and that you tihnk if in the process, maybe Trudeau does something good, that would be nice?

Seriously, how about all you Lib partisans start engaging in some real adult conversation, just for once?

Rokossovsky wrote:

Quote:

In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (41%, up 4 points) have surged past the Liberals (34%, down 3 points), breaking the dead heat the parties showed late last year, with the NDP (21%, down 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change) playing catch up.

Ipsos Ried

Ipsos Reid, as we know, overestimates Conservative support in Ontario (eg. last year's Ontario election).

This poll is also almost a month old.  It came out before all of the bad economic news.

Since then, both Nanos & Forum have come out showing the Liberals with higher numbers.

And the new Probe poll even shows the Liberals doing well in Manitoba, which isn't usually a Liberal stronghold.

In contrast to the inuendo above, Ipsos Reid was actually the most accurate pollster during the last 2 federal elections in Canada and they currently are showing the NDP in the mid-twenties. 

So now let's combine the track records using the anaysis to prevent herding for the 2008 and 2011 federal elections*

Pollster / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 4% -  Most Accurate Pollster

Angus Reid / 5% - Close Second

Harris Decima / 6% - Not bad!

EKOS / 11%

Nanos / 11%

So 20.6% is the NDP's current National Average.

With 33.7% for the Liberals and 32.4% for the Conservatives.

Unfortunately the previous two post and the one following are incorrect.

308 works for the CBC and we all know who they support.

Ipsos Reid is the most accurate federal pollster as the statistics show, and they are currently showing the NDP with 24% support which is indeed in the mid-twenties.

NorthReport wrote:

In contrast to the inuendo above, Ipsos Reid was actually the most accurate pollster during the last 2 federal elections in Canada and they currently are showing the NDP in the mid-twenties. 

So now let's combine the track records using the anaysis to prevent herding for the 2008 and 2011 federal elections*

Pollster / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 4% -  Most Accurate Pollster

Angus Reid / 5% - Close Second

Harris Decima / 6% - Not bad!

EKOS / 11%

Nanos / 11%

Yeah, we get it.  You love Ipsos Reid and think they are the greatest thing in the universe.  That poll is a month old.  And some of us haven't forgotten about the daily Ipsos Reid posts last Spring predicting a huge Tim Hudak win in Ontario.

I'll leave the polling analysis to the independent experts like Eric Grenier & Nik Nanos.  They have more credibility than those of us posting on this message board, or those who keep trying to shill for one particular pollster.

When the federal Liberal party is gone, it will be a great day for Canada. 

NorthReport wrote:

Rallying Harper Tories (35%) Break Stalemate and Shoot to Early 2015 Lead Over Liberals (31%) and NDP (24%)Trudeau Grits Falter as Ontario, Quebec Show a Turn Towards Tories

Examining Key Battleground Races…

A new election year also brings with it a change in electoral boundaries, with the addition of 30 new ridings to Canada’s electoral map. This will make key battleground races even more crucial to attaining victory in Canada’s 42nd federal election.

• In seat-rich Ontario, the Conservatives (41%, up 4 points) have surged past the Liberals (34%, down 3 points), breaking the dead heat the parties showed late last year, with the NDP (21%, down 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change) playing catch up.
• In Quebec, the NDP (31%, up 2 points) have bypassed the Liberal (24%, down 8 points) lead seen at the end of 2014, with the resurgent Bloc Quebecois (25%, up 4 points) jockeying with the Liberals for second place. The Conservatives (18%, up 3 points) and other parties (2%, down 1 point) lag noticeably.
• In British Columbia, the three-way race continues, this time with the Liberals (34%, up 6 points) slightly edging the Tories (30%, down 3 points) and the NDP (28%, down 3 points) although all are within striking distance of each other, while other parties (8%, no change) trail.
• In Alberta, the Conservatives (58%, no change), as expected, continue to have a solid lead over the Liberals (23%, down 1 point), NDP (16%, up 2 points) and other parties (4%, up 1 point).
• In Saskatchewan /Manitoba, the Conservatives (46%) hold a noticeable advantage over the Liberals (33%) and the NDP (20%).
• In Atlantic Canada, the commanding Liberal lead (41%, down 12 points) has weakened but is still prominent, still besting the NDP (29%, up 10 points), Conservatives (26%, no change), and other parties (4%, up 2 points).

The data also show a tight battle among many other demographic constituencies:

• Among men, the Tories (37%, up 1 point) barely best the Liberals (33%, down 2 points), ahead of the NDP (22%, up 1 point), Bloc (5%, up 1 point) and other parties (4%, no change).
• Among women, preference has shifted to the Conservatives (34%, up 4 points) and away from the Liberals (29%, down 5 points), with support for the NDP (26%, down 1 point), Bloc (7%, up 2 points) and other parties (4%, no change) remaining consistent since last month.
• Among those aged 55+, the Tories (41%, up 2 points) continue to enjoy their traditional advantage over the Liberals (33%, up 1 point), NDP (19%, down 3 points), Bloc (3%, no change) and other parties (4%, no change).
• Among those aged 35 to 54, tight battle seen last month has led to a clear Conservative lead (39%, up 6 points) over the Liberals (30%, down 5 points), with the NDP (21%, down 1 point), Bloc (7%, up 2 points) and other parties (3%, down 1 point) trailing.
• Among those aged 18 to 34, the NDP (36%, up 8 points) have jumped to a solid lead over the Liberals (28%, down 9 points) and Conservatives (22%, down 2 points), while the Bloc (8%, down 1 point) and other parties (6%, up 3 points) lag.

 

http://ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6728

How long are you going to keep hawking that poll? Cluttering up the thread. And show us the breakdown of Ipsos's performance in the Ontario election.