Latest polling thread Jan. 27 2015

Yes, terrytowel. You keep saying that message is foolproof and can't fail, seemingly oblivious to the fact that this is the same messaging the Liberals use in EVERY election, and it did in fact fail the last three times it was used. That hoary old chestnut isn't going to win this election. But don't tell the Liberals, okay? They don't seem to have figured that out.

thorin_bane wrote:

Nice to see some solid support for someone so loathsome she got booted from the con caucus. That is a special kind of awful for that to happen. But hey she is a liberal so 'green' terrytowel is all for her winning, Weird you would think TT would support the green candidate.

Where did you get this from?  Sounds like you have been falling for Conservative spin.  Eve Adams was not booted from the Con caucus - she was still an MP and even a Parlimentary Secretary!  (Remember how Alice Funke pointed this out earlier this week?)

Yes, Debater, all is sunshine and roses for your glorious Liberals. The polls are clearly underestimating them and we will all be thrilled when the brilliant, erudite statesman that is Justin Trudeau sweeps to a righteous majority victory later this year.

Winston wrote:

Yes, Debater, all is sunshine and roses for your glorious Liberals. The polls are clearly underestimating them and we will all be thrilled when the brilliant, erudite statesman that is Justin Trudeau sweeps to a righteous majority victory later this year.

I didn't say anything approaching that.

In fact, it is Stephen Harper who still has the best chance of winning an election this year.  I am NOT predicting victory for Justin Trudeau.  A Majority is out of reach for the Liberals, IMO, and even winning a Minority against Harper will be tough.  At this point in time I am actually predicitng a Harper Minority.  So please don't put words in mouth, thanks.

All I did was comment on the polls.

I agree with Debater (and I have been saying this since September). Harper will win again. The only question is majority or minority.

Debater wrote:

Remember though that things can change again.  Right now a Harper win is the most likely outcome, but it's not set in stone.

As I said above, "At this point in time I am actually predicitng a Harper Minority."

Over the course of the year we may see Harper's numbers drop down again as they did prior to him getting a terrorism bump.  There are several factors that could cause some CPC erosion again down the road:

1.  Duffy Trial (I don't think it will hurt the Cons too much, but it could cause a little trouble)

2.  Further economic problems, oil prices, unemployment, layoffs, more stores closing, etc.

3.  Iraq War/ISIS battle gets drawn out and becomes more unpopular

4.  Any new CPC scandal or controversy

And when the one in three Canadians who don't really know Tom MUlcair find out about him, his numbers will go through the roof and Harper's and Trudeau's numbers will plummet.

I assume your predictions didn't include the fact that people really don't know Mulcair and would like him when they find out about him.

"Harper will win again. The only question is majority or minority."

Alas TT and Debater's gloomy predictions make sense and give me sleepless nights.

But barring any "terrorist" related snafu's that Harper would manipulate to his advantage and/or major gaffe's/scandals (real or media-invented) by the three main parties...

(ie we go into the writ period with the very-muddy status quo)...

I believe that the anti Harper crowd outside Quebec could coalesce around the LIBs and if that happens then Quebec voters will join the momentum to give Justin a strong minority or even a majority.

Given the policies and behavior of the current NDP, this is our best bet to end the national nightmare.

Northern PoV wrote:

"Harper will win again. The only question is majority or minority."

Alas TT and Debater's gloomy predictions make sense and give me sleepless nights.

But barring any "terrorist" related snafu's that Harper would manipulate to his advantage and/or major gaffe's/scandals (real or media-invented) by the three main parties...

(ie we go into the writ period with the very-muddy status quo)...

I believe that the anti Harper crowd outside Quebec could coalesce around the LIBs and if that happens then Quebec voters will join the momentum to give Justin a strong minority or even a majority.

Given the policies and behavior of the current NDP, this is our best bet to end the national nightmare.

So electing Harper Junior is the answer? Or do you mean the NDP is the best bet? Unclear. But in the last 3 months babble has been over run with liberals again. I smell an election.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/02/13/poll-gives-joe-oliver-big-...

Poll gives Joe Oliver 49% to Eve Adams 28%

Anyway, here are the EKOS regional numbers.  It's regional numbers that are important, particularly those in the bigger provinces.

As we can see, this poll shows the Conservatives maintaining a competitive position in Québec, and in a close race with the Liberals in Ontario.  The NDP has to be concerned about the distant 3rd place in Ontario.  There's also a good-sized Green number in British Columbia, so it will be interesting to see if that holds.

Looks like bringing in new staff right before an election really improved mulcair's NDP's polling.. Ha ha

I don't buy the Forum numbers, either.  Obviously the Liberals are unlikely to be as high as 39%.  All the other pollsters are showing a much closer race between the Libs & Cons.

But it's trendlines that matter between pollsters, and both EKOS & Forum show a Conservative levelling off since last month and a bit of a Liberal increase.  Nothing major, but it may show that Harper's terrorism bump is running out of steam for now.  That's really all we have to take from these polls at this point in time.  There isn't anything earth shattering here yet.

The EKOS poll is very much in the same range as other pollsters have shown lately like Abacus and Angus Reid with the Libs & Cons in the low 30's.  The NDP number may be a couple points low, but most polls are consistently showing the NDP down around 20% these days.

And the Greens have been getting good numbers in B.C. for some time now, and there's been lots of coverage lately of the apparent growth of the Conservatives in Quebec, so I'm not sure why you're discounting those.

Just because the numbers aren't as favourable for the NDP as you'd like doesn't mean they are being made up.  We know that the Conservatives are really targetting Quebec and that Leger showed earlier this week that most Quebecers agree with Harper's anti-terror law.

Given that Ekos and Forum have consistently higher numbers for the federal Liberals, and consistently lower numbers for the federal NDP relative to other pollsters, I suspect that EKOS and Forum are asking a bunch of pro-Liberal leading questions prior to the main polling question. As such, I don't put much stock in Ekos and Forum polls.

Northern PoV wrote:

I believe that the anti Harper crowd outside Quebec could coalesce around the LIBs and if that happens then Quebec voters will join the momentum to give Justin a strong minority or even a majority.

Given the policies and behavior of the current NDP, this is our best bet to end the national nightmare.

Except Harper's Conservatives numbers in Quebec are rising as they support his anti-terror bill. In addition Harper is campaiging HARD in that province, and attacking the NDP on the satallite office issue (which I think is a witch-hunt)

Ironically a split Lib-Con vote could be good news for the NDP!

We probably cross-posted, but as I just said above, we don't know yet what the story is in Quebec.  The non-Quebec pollsters (EKOS, Forum & Ipsos-Reid) have shown good Conservative numbers in Québec, but Léger has not.  We'll have to find out from CROP next week to see where it comes down.

Leger did acknowledge that Harper's anti-terror bill is popular in Québec, but we don't know if it will translate into electoral support yet.

As for the Québec splits, right now Eric Grenier says the Conservatives seem to have risen a number of points since last fall and that they are taking equally from both the Liberals & NDP.  Both parties could have their seat prospects affected in Québec.

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The Conservative Blue Arrow?

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/02/the-conservative-blue-arrow.html

At Issue panel this week and the whole conversation was about Eve Adams

Althea Raj said Eve has a shot at winning because Dimitri is so completely in love with Eve and will do anything for her.

Which lead to Chantal Hebert (member of Canada's best political panel on Television) to roll her eyes and chuckle

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zbVZN60qXU

Marco C wrote:

Yet another BS poll from EKOS and the less said about the Forum the better... 194 Liberal seats my ass, if I was a suspisious man I was be screeming Liberal shill job all the way home.

The last month of polling has been utter garbage even by our shitty standards. And before the usual suspects start up, let me just point out that there's no logical reason for the results being shown, there has been no sysmic shift or major event that would give the results that we're are seeing.

CPC at over 20% in QB?

Green over 15% in BC?

NDP under 15% in ON?

I'd also add that there's no way I can believe the Liberals are even on the political map in Saskatchewan, much less leading the NDP.

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I'd also add that there's no way I can believe the Liberals are even on the political map in Saskatchewan, much less leading the NDP.

Aristotle, one thing that many pollsters agree on (even sometimes Ipsos-Reid which is not pro-Liberal) is that the Liberals have gained on the NDP in many of the Western provinces since 2011.  Many pollsters are showing the Liberals not just well ahead of the NDP in Manitoba, but sometimes in Saskatchewan. (as well as Alberta & B.C.)

We've had this discussion before.  The Mulcair NDP has lost ground in every Western by-election since 2011.  How come this keeps getting overlooked here?  So since fewer people have voted NDP in the West over the past several years, why is it so hard to believe polls putting the Liberals ahead of the NDP?  Trudeau has made inroads into the West, whereas Mulcair is still viewed with skepticism there.

2012

Victoria -> Nearly goes Green

Calgary Centre -> NDP drops to 4th

2013

Brandon-Souris -> NDP drops to 3rd

Provencher -> NDP drops to 3rd

2014

Fort McMurray-Athabasca -> NDP drops to 3rd

Macleod -> NDP drops to 5th

Yellowhead -> NDP drops to 3rd

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We haven't had a by-election in Saskatchewan yet, but you can see how NDP support has dropped in British Columbia, Manitoba & Alberta since the Layton era, so it's certainly feasible that it can happen in SK too, is it not?

If you noticed above, I listed actual By-Election Results of the way people actually have been voting in Western Canada over the past 3 years.

They tell us a lot more than individual polling results from selected pollsters which go up and down and are less reliable.

The fact is that the NDP vote share has fallen in the Western ridings.  Polls are ephemeral, but by-election results over several years are much more informative.  That doesn't mean that things can't change by the time of the 2015 Election, but what matters is how people are voting, and which parties are turning out the voters at the ballot box on E-Day.

By-elections show trendlines, though.  And they also show whether a leader is capable of mobilizing voters and getting them to the polls.

Unlike Dion & Ignatieff, Trudeau hasn't lost any Liberal strongholds (eg. Outremont for Dion, Vaughan for Ignatieff), plus he has picked up 2 seats and increased vote share in all the others.  That shows that Justin's team has succeeded in building a better ground organization than existed under the previous 2 leaders.

Of course it doesn't predict the results of the next election, but it can demonstrate party strength & organization as well as the ability of the leader to translate support into votes.  And the latter is something that Tom Mulcair is going to need to do in a general election to a better degree than he has been able to do in by-elections.

Debater wrote:

If you noticed above, I listed actual By-Election Results of the way people actually have been voting in Western Canada over the past 3 years.

They tell us a lot more than individual polling results from selected pollsters which go up and down and are less reliable.

The fact is that the NDP vote share has fallen in the Western ridings.  Polls are ephemeral, but by-election results over several years are much more informative.  That doesn't mean that things can't change by the time of the 2015 Election, but what matters is how people are voting, and which parties are turning out the voters at the ballot box on E-Day.

With the exception of Victoria, the western by-elections have all been in rural prairie ridings where the NDP was never in contention to begin with. And the greens near win in Victoria can be chalked up to what appears to be an increase in Green support on southern Vancouver Island.

None of the by-elections were in the Metro Vancouver area, which is one of two areas (along with southern Van Isle) where NDP votes going Liberal would be most likely to cost the NDP seats.

As for the polls showing the Liberals ahead in BC, this has been happening during the in-between elections periods going back to the early 2000s. Then on election day the Conservatives come in 1st, and the Liberals come in either 2nd (2004) or 3rd (2006, 2008, 2011). Which suggests that either:
a) there's a substantial hidden Conservative vote in BC
b) a lot of soft Liberal support in the polls that doesn't translate into votes on e-day
c) a bit of both (most likely)

Left Turn wrote:

As for the polls showing the Liberals ahead in BC, this has been happening during the in-between elections periods going back to the early 2000s. Then on election day the Conservatives come in 1st, and the Liberals come in either 2nd (2004) or 3rd (2006, 2008, 2011). Which suggests that either:

a) there's a substantial hidden Conservative vote in BC
b) a lot of soft Liberal support in the polls that doesn't translate into votes on e-day
c) a bit of both (most likely)

Again, be very careful of these "polls" as they never reflect actual numbers in BC. And opt-in online panel polls (ARS, Ipsos, Abacus, etc.) I have zero faith in due to inherent recruitment problems. Their similar 2013 BC election results corroborates that point. And Forum's IVR stuff can be wayyyyyyy out there. And election after election, I have found Frank Grave's Ekos numbers to be some of the most bizarre of all.

All we are getting these days is the equivalent of cheap "McDonald's" polling junk.

And most still have ~140 sample sizes. Only sample sizes over 300 are even useful. But their polling methods even make that factoid a moot point with the junk produced these days.

Good CATI pollsters don't release anymore. In that regard I am referring to Nanos. Hopefully they will revert back during the 2015 campaign. Nanos final campaign numbers are always usually "bang-on" and their final 2011 BC numbers were also basically "bang-on". A couple of elections back, Nik Nanos told a major network that "BC is a very difficult place to poll". Useful insight and I agree.

BC's Mustel, also a very good CATI pollster, seems to have entirely left the BC poli field (federally - 2011 and provincially - Jan. 2013). Unfortunately.

You are correct though. Historically between elections fed Liberal "vote parking" occurs in BC and some of it evaporates on e-day.

Unlike previous elections though, JT seems to be drawing huge crowds in Van City and if that occurs during the election with full media coverage, it will give voters impression of Lib momentum. Suspect that Libs will do well in Van City proper and the old inner suburban belt (North Shore, Burnaby, and Richmond) as well as northern Surrey. Don't know full extent yet.

And the Cons are entrenched in BC and will continue to sweep interior BC, the Fraser Valley and eastern/southern Metro Vancouver suburbs. I have no doubt that they will obtain ~40% of the popular vote share in BC.

And then we have that strange Green thingy going on over on Van Isle - esp. the southern half. Gonna be a tough election.

In 2004 and 2006 before the liberal vote totally collapsed in BC, the CPC only took 36% and 37% respectively...I think the Tories will get well below 40% this coming October because at the very least almost all of the traditional federal Liberal vote that went CPC in the last two elections will go back its traditional home. I predict that the popular vote split in BC this October will return to the pattern we saw in '04 and '06 witz the tories un the mid-30s and NDP and Liberals both un the High 20s

Debater wrote:

We've had this discussion before.  The Mulcair NDP has lost ground in every Western by-election since 2011.  How come this keeps getting overlooked here?  So since fewer people have voted NDP in the West over the past several years, why is it so hard to believe polls putting the Liberals ahead of the NDP?  Trudeau has made inroads into the West, whereas Mulcair is still viewed with skepticism there.

I said I was specifically skeptical of the numbers for Saskatchewan. In the other Western provinces, the trends have been verified several times. In Manitoba, the Liberals beat the NDP not only in federal by-elections but in provincial by-elections as well, and there is local polling which has the Liberals and NDP polling close to each other. In Calgary, to the extent that there is a progressive opposition, it is solidly behind the Liberals, and this was the case even in 2011, where the NDP still finished out of second in several ridings. The only progressive MLAs in Calgary are Liberals, and the Liberals finished second in the 2012 by-election. In BC, we've seen the Greens succeed in Vancouver Island in the 2013 provincial election, they came close to beating the NDP in Victoria, and they were very successful municipally. In Saskatchewan, the Liberal brand is essentially non-existent. They were not a factor in the 2011 provincial election. They reached their most recent high-water mark there in 2004 with 27% of the vote, and they've been sliding since. There was a recent provincial by-election [url=http://rabble.ca/babble/manitoba-and-saskatchewan/lloydminster-saskatche... the Liberals again were not a factor.[/url]

Do I believe that for the Liberals a rising tide nationally has lifted some Saskatchewan boats at the expense of the NDP? Sure. Do I believe that tide is strong enough to overcome the massive structural disadvantages the Liberals face to the point of them placing ahead of the NDP? Not a chance.

Centrist wrote:

You are correct though. Historically between elections fed Liberal "vote parking" occurs in BC and some of it evaporates on e-day.

Unlike previous elections though, JT seems to be drawing huge crowds in Van City and if that occurs during the election with full media coverage, it will give voters impression of Lib momentum. Suspect that Libs will do well in Van City proper and the old inner suburban belt (North Shore, Burnaby, and Richmond) as well as northern Surrey. Don't know full extent yet.

1.  I agree with those who say that the Liberals may not do as well in the vote in B.C. as some of the polls show.  And it's true that the Liberal vote in B.C. evaporated in 2008 & even more so in 2011.  But a lot of that was because the National campaigns of Dion & Ignatieff collapsed.  Prior to the last 2 elections, the Liberals were actually making some progress in some parts of B.C.  In 2006 the Liberals even managed to take the Conservative stronghold of West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast for the first time in decades.

2.  And yes, while there are no guarantees for Justin Trudeau, he does have a different connection to B.C. than the last couple of Liberal leaders.  He has lived and worked in B.C., gone to school there, and his mother's family comes from there.  (As well as his grandfather being a federal cabinet minister of Fisheries from there back in the 1950's, etc.)  And he has done a more effective job at reaching out to the multicultural ridings in Vancouver as well as the gay community there compared to Dion & Ignatieff.

So while the Liberals should not be expecting a sweep of B.C. or anything like that, they certainly have the potential to make pickups under Justin for the first time since the Chrétien/Martin years and the way his father did in 1968.