Latest polling thread Jan. 27 2015

Because your detailed analysis is always bullshit, and people call you on it and you ignore them and try to deflect to some other topic about how "disappointing" the NDP is when we all know they've never been so popular.

You can't support your statements so you evade, insinuate, and skitter away. There is nothing to respect about you.

1)  I reguarly back up my posts with polls, by-election results, commentary by journalists & other links.  There's nothing else I can do to support my statements.  In most objective debates, I would be considered to have made my argument.

2.)  What exactly is it you are looking for here?  Seriously.  Practically everyone in Canada agrees that the NDP is struggling except a few posters on this board.

At least the NDP reaiizes that it is in trouble.  EVEN TOM MULCAIR knows that the NDP is in trouble.  Did you see the column Chantal Hébert wrote that says bringing back Brad Lavigne was a CRY FOR HELP by Mulcair?

The NDP has more support than when it was a 4th party prior to 2011.  Yes, you are right about that.  I concede that point.  But that doesn't change the fact that they have LOST GROUND over the past 4 years.

And the big problem is Ontario.

Here's an excerpt from a piece this week by John Ivison on the NDP's numbers in the GTA.

--- 

Recent public opinion polls have the NDP at 18% support in Ontario and a private survey of 20 ridings in the GTA suggested the NDP led in none and were over 15% support in only one. No wonder Mr. Mulcair has spent this week in and around Toronto, making bread and talking small business, as he did with a Mississauga restaurant owner Thursday.

--

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/...

NorthReport wrote:

Pollster / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 4% -  Most Accurate Pollster

A new Ipsos Reid poll puts Stephen Harper’s Conservatives ahead of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, including in vote-rich Ontario.

If the federal election were held today, 35% of voters would vote Tory, according to the latest Ipsos Reid poll. With new boundaries coming in 70 ridings, the Conservatives are closer to a majority government with that 35% than ever before, said Ipsos Reid’s John Wright.

“If you took the 2011 numbers and applied them to the new riding situation immediately — without having a campaign or anything — the Conservatives already gain 22 extra seats as a result of that,” Mr. Wright said.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/15/federal-tories-lead-the-liberals...

Looks like those negative ads worked. We need to accept the inevidible.

Like I have said over and over again. You cannot one-up Stephen Harper. Cons will be in power, until Harper decides to leave.

And that could be another decade!

No one can one-up Stephen Harper.

No one.

It's over.

The NDP has maintained its 24% in this poll while the Liberals have fallen 3% to 31%.

No TerryT...l, it is not over. The NDP may well overtake the Liberals as the alternative at this rate.

Against Trudeau Harper comes accross as smarter, more experienced and certainly more competent. Against Mulcair these measurements will not be so kind to Haper.

I fully expect to be reading numerous posts by Terryt...l, "if you want to beat Harper you cannot vote Liberal. You must vote NDP."

My apologies, I thought this was a new IR poll.

Yes NR, it would be better if you used current polling.

tducey1,

Concerning Harper winning a minority, correct as of today, however this race is far from over.

On the other hand, concerning Trudeau's leadership, correct as well if the Liberals come in third, as some of the Liberals already can't wait to replace him. 

tducey1 wrote:

Looks like Harper's going to win another government, minority though this time, got to think Trudeau would be out as Liberal leader soon after.

Actually nicky it is better to use accurate pollsters as opposed to you know what, otherwise:  garbage in = garbage out.

Ipsos Reid, Canada's most accurate pollster, I'm sure will be publishing additional polls in the not too distant future. 

-------------------

5,720 (+3,700)

nicky wrote:

I fully expect to be reading numerous posts by Terry, "if you want to beat Harper you cannot vote Liberal. You must vote NDP."

Well I said that is what they should do, but Jacob Two-Two said

"The same strategies that work for the Liberals don't work for the NDP. One of the party's biggest mistakes over the years is thinking they can copy Librral success by aping Liberal talking points and maneuvers. It never works. The dynamics are completely different."

http://rabble.ca/comment/1483862#comment-1483862

tducey1 wrote:

Looks like Harper's going to win another government, minority though this time, got to think Trudeau would be out as Liberal leader soon after.

He will get another kick at the can, as there would be no one to replace him. Plus in a minority situation, the Liberals would defeat the government in a confidence motion as soon as they could.

Even if the Cons win another majority, and Trudeau Liberals place third, the party will still give him another kick at the can.

But for sure without a doubt, the Cons will win this election.

It's over

nicky wrote:

My apologies, I thought this was a new IR poll.

Yes NR, it would be better if you used current polling.

Yeah, something we can agree on.

But NR keeps promoting Ipsos Reid as the "most accurate pollster" despite the fact that they have a known pro-Conservative slant and claimed Tim Hudak would become Premier of Ontario last June.

Btw, here are the updated National Averages & seat projections today from Eric Grenier:

---

FEBRUARY 17, 2015

---

LIBERAL - 34.2%

CONSERVATIVE - 32.9%

NDP - 19.3%

GREEN - 6.9%

BQ - 4.3%

---

CONSERVATIVE - 140 SEATS

LIBERAL - 135 SEATS

NDP - 58 SEATS

BQ - 3 SEATS

GREEN - 2 SEATS

---

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html 

NorthReport wrote:

The latest polls from credible pollsters with solid track records are showing the NDP with support in the mid-twenties, which is an excellent position for Mulcair to be in prior to ther election.

Combined track records for pollsters  during the 2008 and 2011 elections*

Pollster / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 4% -  Most Accurate Pollster

Angus Reid / 5% - Close Second

Harris Decima / 6% - Not bad!

EKOS / 11%

Nanos / 11%

 

* based on formerly of the  NY Times' Nate Silver approach to prevent herding

 

One would think after your bloviating during the Ontario election you might have got the message...

Dude,you're like the Baghdad Bob of the board....

Give it a rest!

terrytowel wrote:

Debater

It's OVER

Harper will win again.

Face the facts.

It's OVER

If you wanna know why, perhaps consider looking in the mirror.

I find lately that a number of my Liberal friends are becoming more reluctant to talk about Justin Trudeau. Debater has now joined that list for reasons we can only speculate.

Conservatives have hit a new 12 month high

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Political%20Index%202...

We get it, Terry Towel.

I agree with you that Harper is a formidable opponent.  He has towering strengths in many areas, and he is a brilliant strategist.  He's even making Mulcair sweat in Québec!  Who would have thought Mulcair would have to worry about Harper taking support from him in his home province?

But no one is invulnerable.  Harper is still down in support from where he was in 2011, and he faces some challenges as the year proceeds.

I predict a Rhinosercous Party majority in 2015!  You read it here first. :)

I find it surprising that so many Quebecers in Quebec City are conservative.

You'd think they would know by now how hostile Harper is to the civil service and to government services.

It appears that the one party that has taken a shit-kicking here are the Trudeau Liberals, down 5% from December, 2014, and down 8% from October, 2014.

Debater wrote:

Btw, the new CROP poll comes out tomorrow.  Joel-Denis Bellavance was just on Don Martin's Power Play on CTV and gave a preview of the Quebec City numbers:

38 CPC

30 NDP

16 LPC

Debater wrote:

Hardly surprising.  There's been a terror attack since the Fall and Harper has been ramping up fears of terrorism.

That means that some voters are moving back to the Conservatives in Quebec City, which is bad news for the NDP there, though.  It's the NDP that is at risk of losing seats to the Cons, since the Libs don't have any there.  Not sure how that's good news for the NDP.

It is bad news for the NDP.

I don't quite get why some get gitty with Conservatives fortunes.

The NDP and Liberals should play together instead of constantly splitting votes and keep the Conservatives alive with under 40% of the vote.

At this point we'll never get rid of the regressive conservatives.

Want to get rid of Harper? Let's work together or fuck it all to hell.

NorthReport wrote:

Don't twist words around that no one said.

Are you for real? 

The "Right Wing" vote in Quebec is not quite the same as the Anglo Conservative in a place like Markham, ON  or even Woleseley, SK. 

To get a sense of this marketplace, here are a few good web pages:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camillien_Houde

"La clef du nouveau Canada" 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adrien_Arcand

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Unity_Party_(Canada)

Path to Majority in Seats (according to Eric Grenier of 308)

Conservatives would need

BC                          20 Seats

AB & Prairies             50 Seats

Ontario                    70 Seats

Quebec                    20 Seats

Atlantic Canada         10 Seats

Liberals would need

BC                          20 Seats

AB & Prairies             15 Seats

Ontario                    75 Seats

Quebec                    35 Seats

Atlantic Canada         25 Seats

NDP would need

BC                          25 Seats

AB & Prairies             15 Seats

Ontario                    55 Seats

Quebec                    65 Seats

Atlantic Canada         10 Seats

Debater wrote:

Btw, the new CROP poll comes out tomorrow.  Joel-Denis Bellavance was just on Don Martin's Power Play on CTV and gave a preview of the Quebec City numbers:

38 CPC

30 NDP

16 LPC

The xenophobic card plays well in Quebec City.

nicky wrote:

I was a little concerned when I saw the CROP poll so triumphantly posted by Debater. Cons 38 NDP 30 Lib 16. 

Then I read more closely and saw it was for  the Quebec City Metropolitan area only, a relative Conservative stronghold.

I went back and compared it to the previous CROP poll:

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201412/19/01-48296...

You will see that the numbers here for Quebec City are Con 37 NDP 30 Lib 21.

So the Con and NDP number are pretty much what they were and the Liberals have lost a quarter of their support in the region.

While the NDP won in Quebec City in '11 the Cons were a close second.

Other Quebec polling early this year saw the NDP overtake the Liberals who had been falling sharply. This poll seems to confirm that.

The Quebec sub-set of Forum and EKOS (though not Abacus or Ipsos) have shown Con numbers in the mid 20s recently. There are no recent Leger or CROP polls to confirm or contradict this. If CROP is released tomorrow it may cast some light but if these Quebec City numbers are accuate they hardly suggest a Con surge.

So sorry Debater. But the NDP vote seems to be holding and the Liberals going down.

To respond to Nicky's latest set of falsehoods and things I didn't even say:

1.  Nowhere did I 'triumphantly' post the CROP poll.  I said the Conservatives are going to gain at the expense of both opposition parties, but that it will hurt the NDP the most in seats.

2.  I then backed up that assertion by showing the current seat projection for Quebec which shows that the Conservatives & Liberals are gaining seats in Quebec relative to 2011 whereas the NDP is losing seats.

3.  It is the NDP vote which has fallen off the most in Quebec recently, contrary to what Nicky said.  

Here's the latest chart of the regional polls - it shows that the NDP has gone down in Quebec (and almost everywhere else in the country):

And here is a graph of the latest National numbers.  Again, you can see that contrary to Nicky's latest talking points from NDP HQ, it is the NDP that has fallen off the most:

terrytowel wrote:

adma wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

Harper will win again.

Face the facts.

It's OVER

If you wanna know why, perhaps consider looking in the mirror.

So according to your logic Harper has no skills as a politician to win elections.

No, more that you, yourself, lack the skills to crack the Harper code.

And, on top of that: however undesirable the Harper gov't is, the cartoonish way you go about framing His Evilness is like a so-called "heritage activist" who seeks to wipe out that horrible horrible anti-urban 60s/70s concrete modernism and brutalism.

Which may be a big reason why you can't "crack the code".