Latest polling thread Jan. 27 2015

According to some Rhinos I spoke to, Elections Canada makes it very difficult now for a small party. If the Parti Rhinoceros is able to run a full slate of candidates it will be a miracle.

Debater wrote:

Btw, the new CROP poll comes out tomorrow.  Joel-Denis Bellavance was just on Don Martin's Power Play on CTV and gave a preview of the Quebec City numbers:

38 CPC

30 NDP

16 LPC

Quebec City has a bit of a history as a CPC/CAQ stronghold so this does not come as a shock - I'd be more worried if i was a Liberal or a Bloquistes since they will both clearly be shut out in the Quebec City region, while the NDP and CPC would likely split the seats in the region

Stockholm wrote:

Quebec City has a bit of a history as a CPC/CAQ stronghold so this does not come as a shock - I'd be more worried if i was a Liberal or a Bloquistes since they will both clearly be shut out in the Quebec City region, while the NDP and CPC would likely split the seats in the region

1.  Yes, I'm aware that Quebec City has conservative historical tendencies.  This isn't my first day being involved with politics. 

2.  It may not be a 'shock' that the Conservatives are gaining in Quebec City, but it wasn't predicted.  The NDP was basing its 2015 electoral map on the assumption that it would retain the large majority of seats it won in 2011 and that the Conservatives would largely be out of the picture because of Harper's unpopularity.  If Harper gets back to his pre-2011 numbers in Quebec and were to gain back half a dozen seats in Quebec (or more) that would hurt the NDP (which also faces losses to the Liberals in Montreal & a few other places).

3.  I don't see why it would worry the Liberals as much as the NDP if the CPC takes seats from the NDP in Quebec City.  The Liberals don't have any seats there.  Sure the Libs would like to be able to get back into Quebec City, but it was not their main target.  If the Conservatives were to start rising in Montreal, that might concern the Liberals, but right now most of the seat gains in Quebec would come at the expense of the NDP.

The full CROP report is out in La Presse. It' has the Liberals down province wide from 38% before Christmas to 33% now. The NDP is steady at 30%. All the Liberal losses have been to the Conservatives who are at 17% across the province.

The numbers in Quebec City are actually a bit better than what was leaked earlier. The CPC leads the MFP 38-33 which is tighter than it was in December. The Liberals and BQ are not competitive at all in Quebc Cit.

CROP calls into question reports of a Conservative surge in Quebec. It gives the Cons 16%, up only 2% from its previous poll, and shows no advance over 2011 when the Cons got 16.5% in Quebec.

While EKOS and Forum have recently put the Cons in the mid 20s in Quebec, Abacus and Ipsos have numbers for them similar to CROP. 

The Quebec polls also vary WRT to whether the NDP or the Liberals are in the lead and also whether the Bloc is in the high or low teens.

The lack of consistency may well indicate a lot of volatility in Quebec.

The BQ vote can go in a variety of different directions according to the Abacus poll a few months ago.  A chunk of it is likely to go NDP, yes, but it also showed some of it going Liberal, and some of it going Conservative.

It also depends on what the overall dynamics are during the election and what Quebecers are interested in doing.  If they end up disliking Harper less this time around and Harper is doing well, some may vote to have an MP on the Government side so Quebec is better represented.

Or if Quebec wants Harper out and the Liberals are still beating the NDP in the National vote at the time of the Election, some of them may go Liberal as a strategic way of voting out the Cons, which Abacus showed in its poll last fall that Quebecers are open to doing.

Anyway, what is interesting is that the Quebec pollsters CROP & Leger show a LPC/NDP race in Quebec with the Conservatives well behind except in Quebec City, meanwhile the non-Quebec based pollsters like EKOS, Ipsos etc, show the Conservatives a number of points higher.

Nicky may be right that it shows a lot of volatility in Quebec, although it could also indicate that the Quebec pollsters know the terrain better than the others and that they are more likely to be right that the Cons have not yet had a big breakthrough.

This article by Joel-Denis Bellavance has some more detailed breakdown of the CROP numbers (eg. Francophone numbers etc.)

Sondage CROP- La Presse: faible écart entre le NPD et le PLC au Québec

FRANCOPHONES

NDP - 32

LPC - 29

BQ - 20

CPC - 15

--

BEST PM

MULCAIR - 25

TRUDEAU - 23

HARPER - 15

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201502/...

WHITHER GOEST THOU, JUSTIN, IN THY SHINY CAR IN THE NIGHT?

It’s a Kerouac line, adapted for the circumstances. Fits.

Lately, I have been peering at this snapshot taken by Eric Grenier, like someone does when they are lost, and they are squinting at a map at the side of the road. Night falling, apprehension rising.

No single poll is reliable anymore. They get it wrong, a lot. This graph is probably different, however, because it is a rendering of a lot of polls, aggregated. It’s therefore harder to dismiss. Thus, I gaze at it, trying to unlock its mysteries.

You can divine its meaning as well as I can. You don’t have to be an expert. Among other things, it tells us:

• Trudeau has dropped, but not dramatically;
• Harper has risen, and inexorably; and
• Mulcair isn’t Jack Layton.

That’s pretty simplistic, but so is politics.  Harper’s wiggly line is good, Mulcair’s is bad, and Trudeau’s is so-so.  Ipso facto, the campaign matters.

That’s a cliché, but it’s also true.  That’s why Liberals – increasingly nervous about assorted things – have lately taken to repeating the mantra that the campaign matters, and the pre-season doesn’t.  (Maybe.)

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/02/whither-goest-thou-justin-in-thy-shiny...

Looks like EKOS is out with another poll. Cons and Libs tied at 32 with NDP at 19.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2015/02/20/conservatives-losing-support-among-fo...

The regional numbers are not available yet because they are behind the paywall, but the press have them and EKOS is once again completely contradicting CROP on the Quebec numbers.

Whereas CROP had the Cons down in 4th yesterday, EKOS has the Cons tied with the LPC & NDP in Quebec, according to Paul Wells:

Ekos has NDP, LPC, CPC, BQ within 2 points of one another in Quebec

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/568884564443201536

I am relieved it is a contest between the Libs and the NDP in my neck of the woods. In all areas except around Quebec City, STOP HARPER has already won. From a STOP HARPER perspective, you should vote for your favorite party in Quebec so long so long as it is not Conservative. In Quebec City, it looks like some Liberals need to go NDP to defeat the Tory scourge there.

Quebec City shows the mindlessness of a blanket "Strategic Voting" command for the whole country. Advocating Liberal votes in Quebec City will obviously give more seats to the Conservatives. So what that ex-Bloc MP said about supporting Trudeau was extremely ill-informed of the facts of the data here. 

It is a shame no one will break Ontario up into 10 areas similar to this. Ontarian STOP HARPER options would be more clear. 

NorthReport wrote:

Don't waste your energy on the Liberal-connected pollsters. 

No...It's better to keep putting up month old polls that fit your agenda,eh Baghdad Bob?

Or for comic relief,we could just follow you and your equally nonsensical ramblings...

ie. Baghdad Bob's stellar predictions of the latest Ontario election...

In any case 19 should be enough to stop the Libs and the Cons from getting a majority which is one step in the STOP HARPER direction further from here. Green and Bloc also to have an effect.

Bwahahaha.... Ekos poll results tonight for Quebec:

Con - 22%

BQ - 23%

Lib - 23%

NDP - 24%

Have said it on here before - Ekos is a wayyyy out there pollster over the years. But man, these QC numbers are kinda psychedelic. :)

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Why is it that EKOS not only never ever get the NDP right, but they always always underestimate them Coincidence?

2011: Final poll overestmates NDP by 0.6%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_ele...

2008: Final poll overstimates NDP by 1.2%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_ele...

2006: Final poll overstimates NDP by 2.0%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_ele...

Come on. Ekos was wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy off the mark nationally. BTW, over past few elections, time and time again Ekos showed fed NDP leading here in BC .... over and over again.  I never forget that stuff.

Why as a pollster if you were a liberal supporter would you not show the liberals out front or the liberals doing well?

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

EKOS admitted after the Ontario election that they obviously can't get proper numbers for the NDP. Kind of refreshing to see honesty like that from a polling company, but the fact remains that they clearly have not solved this problem. Angus Reid and abacus are much better bets for accuracy. Both have pegged the NDP at 22-24%.

I don't think its intentional. I actually know these people, but I think there is something wrong with their methodology, and it tends to spread votes out among the "also rans" while getting better numbers at the top. Its the only explanation I can think of.

Centrist wrote:

Bwahahaha.... Ekos poll results tonight for Quebec:

Con - 22%

BQ - 23%

Lib - 23%

NDP - 24%

Have said it on here before - Ekos is a wayyyy out there pollster over the years. But man, these QC numbers are kinda psychedelic. :)

Yeah, those are the numbers referred to above in my post with the tweet by Paul Wells that said the 4 parties were going to be basically tied in Quebec.

Who knows what that would mean in terms of results, but obviously there's a big contradiction happening right now between Quebec pollsters CROP & Leger that show the Liberals & NDP well ahead, and the National pollsters that show the Conservatives close in Quebec.

Presumably the Quebec pollsters know the Quebec terrain better, although as Eric Grenier said, that doesn't mean that EKOS, Ipsos, Forum, etc. are totally wrong about there being some Conservative increase in Quebec.  It could just be they are not processing the overall numbers right.

Anyway, what's interesting is what has allowed the Conservatives to be tied with the Liberals in the EKOS poll is the Quebec numbers.  If the Cons weren't that high in Quebec, they would be lower Nationally.  So if EKOS is wrong about the higher Con numbers in Quebec, it could mean the Cons are actually lower Nationally.  EKOS has the Conservatives 6 points higher in Quebec than CROP.  6 extra points in the second biggest province affects the National average.

CROP = CPC 16%

EKOS = CPC 22%

Debater wrote:

EKOS full regional breakdown:

Alberta support for the Conservatives at essentially the same level as in Saskatchewan?

Curiouser and curiouser....

Actually that is just another waste of time if there are a bunch of rogue, being polite, polls, in the mix.

Usually it is good to aggregate polls, but when you have too many roguesters in the mix why bother.

Just follow a few of the reliable pollsters and see what their trends are telling you.

That will give you a much more accurate indication of what is taking place on the ground and at the kitchen tables across the nation.

We all know what games the mainstream press like to play, so why does anyone think it would any different when it comes to pollsters and the like, eh!

Abacus

C      35

L      34

NDP  21

G       4

http://abacusdata.ca/conservatives-and-liberals-locked-in-dead-heat-eve-adams-defection-reactions-mixed/

It is atrocious that in a 4-way race, a party with 26% could win. An utter disgrace to the concept of democracy and majority rule.