Will Syriza take power in Greece?

ken

..i agree the gun is still there. i think though that the europeans have already sent the greeks into immediate crisis which is how we got to this point.

This could just last till Monday when Greece is supposed to present the "reforms" they're willing to implement.

I understand that Syriza is, in part playing for time, hoping others in and out of the EU will pressure Germany to be more flexible, but if I were them I would strike while the iron is hot. There's no guarantee their popularity at home will be as high four to six months from now as it is now.

josh wrote:

This could just last till Monday when Greece is supposed to present the "reforms" they're willing to implement.

There will be many iterrations of Greece presenting how they propose to dealing with the "conditions"- essentially, how much they are willing to compromise to keep the bailout alive. Then the paymasters say what is not acceptable. Then another round. Etc.

So it will not be all over on Monday. That is when Greece makes its first 'presentation' / bargaining position.

And of course, there is all sorts of back of stage wheeling and dealing that makes the stages of those itterations even more nebulous and fuzzy.

I guess I think of it as a protracted negotian until there is either agreement or permanent collapse. seems to me it could be either a lot shorter than the 4 month term, or a lot longer, with one 'temporary' partial agreement just rolling into another with another term, albeit called something different.

KenS wrote:

ok, more pricisely:

immediate heightened crisis is what could have been touched off yesterday [and might still be]

..sorry for the delayed reaction. my point wasn't just about correct language. the europeans as i see it have already created the crisis that is pushing greece out of the union. now they want to crush the decent if they can. they will go to the wire believing they can get away with it so don't consider if greece leaves or not. 

The Assassination of Greece  -  by James Petras

http://www.voltairenet.org/article186806.html

"The leadership of the EU is counting on Syriza leaders abandoning their commitments to the Greek electorate. The issues go far beyond local or eve regional, time-based impacts. The entire global financial system will be affected..."

Varoufakis Keeps Greece in the Eurozone, By Its Fingernails  -  by Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article41087.htm

"It's not easy to negotiate with a gun pointed to your head...Even so, it's only natural for people to feel let down, especially since Syriza had promised much more than they could deliver."

Syriza does not necessarily have much idea of the end game in these negotiations.

But I can see how this punting ahead of the conclusion is mostly in their favour. [Leaving aside that anything is better than jumping off the cliff right now.]

Syriza can probably count on popular support for holding the line as much as possible. For the European Commission- they definitely have the upper hand [an understatement], but time is not on their side for playing tough guys.

I bet the Germans really wanted to force Greece into making its choice now: surrender, or jump off the cliff. The longer this drags out, the more at risk their tenuous mandate gets.

Thats how it looks to me anyway.

KenS wrote:

The major concession Greece appears to have made is to not roll back privatizations. They had to give up something, but that will hurt among supporters.

Privatizations that have already occurred, correct?

josh wrote:

A lot of the language is vague, although the statements regarding public worker benefits and pay are bothersome.

http://clamo.ftdata.co.uk/files/2015-02/24/GREEK%20GVT%20REFORM%20AGENDA.pdf  

I will use a more clear cut example of how the vague language "operationalizes," but the operative principle is similar with public worker pay.

Closing point of the document: • Ensure that its fight against the humanitarian crisis has no negative fiscal effect.

That will understandably concern people that it is shorthand for "no social spending that Greece cannot afford."  IE, spending that will [predictably] interfere with Greece meeting bailout conditions.

And that is certianly the meaning for European paymasters.

But Greece insists on the Keynesian argument that increased social spending is what is required for the economy to recover and for Greece meet it's repayment obligations [the exact nature of which have not been established].

The Germans and the rest of the reactionaries talk as if Greece must meet the existing bailout terms. And insist that austerity is the only path to get there. But in practice, both of those are dead. That does not mean that the Greek approach replaces that in practice DOA austerity agenda. Not at all. But what does replace the DOA troika agenda is a matter of political contention.

In other words, stay tuned.

Putin to the Rescue?

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The standoff continues, and will be decided tomorrow by EU finance ministers. It's not looking good: Germany has already stated that the Greek proposal "does not meet the conditions". But if the finance minsters don't agree, then what?

You guessed it: Tsipras will turn to Russia. Earlier this month Tsipras and Putin agreed on a range of bilateral ties, including the construction of a pipeline that would carry Russian natural gas from the Turkish border across Greece to the other countries of southern Europe.

This follows the re-routing of the 'South Stream' pipeline, which had been due to cross Bulgaria but was effectively blocked by the EU's retrospective application of energy market rules, under heavy pressure from the USA. Last November and December Putin negotiated the pipeline's realignment across Turkey with Turkish President Erdogan - right up to the Greek border.

Following the agreement between Putin and Tsipras, which came complete with an invitation to Moscow on Victory over the Nazis day, 9th May, the pipeline link to the major countries of southern Europe is now complete, at least on paper. And once it's built, Greece will effectively control - and profit from - that gas supply, and take a strategic position in Europe's energy landscape.

Wait, there's more.

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we could see Greece simply renouncing its manifestly unpayable and unjust €320 billion national debt, and quitting the Eurozone straitjacket - while receiving an emergency liquidity package from Russia to support the launch of the New Drachma.

In fact, we could see a re-run of important elements of the Ukraine play of December 2013, when Russia offered a support package under which it would buy $15 billion in bonds from Ukraine, supporting its collapsing currency, and supply it with deeply discounted gas - £268 per cubic metre rather than the maarket price of $400.

A $15 billion purchase of New Drachma denominated Greek bonds would be a superb launch for Greece's new currency, and would firmly cement Greece's long term alliance with Russia, providing it with a valuable long term bridgehead into both the EU and NATO.

This move would also give inspiration and confidence to progressive political movements across Europe that take inspiration from Syriza's fight for economic justice - in Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, the UK and beyond - and bear the powerful message: there is an alternative.

There is an alternative.

Unless the Turks are persuaded to say fuck you to the pipeline, scuppering Greek hopes. But hey its not like the Turks hate the Greeks or the Greeks had been ffucking with the EU application ffor the Turks

The link Tom posted above does not work. Here is the article:

No, Syriza has not surrendered

According to this article Syriza has folded and is basically just continuing the policies of the rightwing government they defeated

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-bailout-syriza-diss...

Understanding Syriza

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Before the elections, Syriza promised to withdraw the patrol wagons and the police special forces units stationed in the area. And indeed, Syriza kept their promises: the heavily armed police forces were moved 200m-300m away! Typically they are not in Exarhia anymore. A few days ago, when a police car was set on fire, the special forces once again invaded the neighborhood, randomly beating up and arresting residents and passers-by. As his predecessors had done so many times in the past, Giannis (Yannis) Panoussis, the new Minister of Public Order, didn’t even place the incident under investigation.

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Panoussis recently stated that the immigrant detention centers – which are, in fact, concentration camps where thousands of immigrants are kept locked up for up to 18 months without having committed any crime – will become “hospitality centers,” a euphemism the previous government used as well. Syriza will give a humanitarian touch to the State of Emergency and will dress it with a social-democratic cloak.

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And we shouldn’t forget that Syriza has formed a government with Independent Greeks, a small party which is deeply xenophobic and homophobic.

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The ruling class now hopes that Syriza can restore politics as a legitimate source of consensus, soothe the protests and divert people’s attention from the capitalist crisis and the transnational commercial war. In a time when the Greek capitalism has gone bankrupt, social peace can guarantee the unimpeded continuation of capital accumulation and the survival of Greek capitalism at the expense of the working class.

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Contrary to the crowd that gathers outside the parliament, the capitalists know that national independence is achieved by the barrel of a gun both within and outside the country. And this gun is put on the temple of the multinational subversive proletariat.

Stathis Kouvelakis: ‘Going on this way can only mean defeat’

After Greece’s agreement with the European Union – with the aid programme being extended in exchange for the continuation of structural reforms – the new government has arrived at an impasse. The hopes of those seeking an end to austerity have not even lasted a month. Stathis Kouvelakis, member of the Syriza central committee and reader in political theory at King’s College London comments on these developments in the interview below.

http://www.versobooks.com/blogs/1878-stathis-kouvelakis-going-on-this-wa...

Its a pipe dream. The Greeks had Cyprus veto Turkish Cyprus so I dont see any reciprocal goodwill coming along (except disasters, they seem to help each other fofr natural disasters)

The Death of Social Democracy

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After the deal made with the Troika on Friday, it, as Rosa Luxemburg declared its predecessor – revolutionary Social Democracy – is now nothing but a stinking corpse. The constraints of the capitalism world-system, the EU, and the European ruling class have conspired to make all attempts at real left-Social Democratic policies impossible.

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Returning to Marx, if constructing for the future and settling everything for all times is not Syriza’s (or Podemos, etc.) task, then what is to be done? A party like Syriza – supposedly a “Coalition of the Radical Left” – that wishes to develop radical, even revolutionary class consciousness must be honest with its membership and voters.

'V Is For Varoufakis!' (and vid)

http://rt.com/news/235739-varoufakis-bailout-youtube-video/

ROTFL  bring on the mulcair version!

What kind of ace?

[who needs one?]

You said dealing with the instituions [the Troika] would be unpopular with large segments of the party base. Dealing with them was inevitable. Negotiating with them, instead of ttelling them to get lost, would be uunpopular with A segment of the base, yes. And not a small segment definitely. But 'large' could men to a lot of people predominate or almost predominate or something like that.

At any rate we are not hearing directly or indirectly from ANY section of the Syrriza base. We are being treated to a steady flow of articles from international revolutionary socialists who will HEAVILY try to hitch their wagon onto anything like what is going on in Greece. And a goodly part of the Syriza base is like minded... at least to a point.

The alternative to what the Syriza leadership is doing would be starting to prepare the population for VERY soon repudiating Greece's debt and jumping off into the unknown with bringing back the drachma. What our armchair internationals are really criticizing Syriza for is not showing the leadership to CONVINCE the base that they have to take the hard path.

Because everyone knows that the government does not presently have a mandate for going straight to the hard path, which includes immediate increased suffering for most people in Greece. The HOPE being that after the short term pain....

Granted, the Syriza leadership not only does not have a mandate for the hard path- it is pretty clear that they do not want to go there as long as there is any other option. And, so?

That just means they are pretty much in tune with the majority of the poular revolt- which is after all why they got elected.

..what the government/syriza needs is the support of the majority people. this would need to include the decentralization of decision making power. the student demonstrations, the anarchistic struggles defending neighbourhoods and the recent past square occupations suggest the lengths to which people in greece will go to have a say. the processes to consult needs to be on the table from the get go. what i see now is a growing concentration of decision making going to a few in high government positions. and everyone else are left to debate each other on the merits of what is going on. and having a vote next election.

..this has to stop if there is an expectation that people will support syriza. ways have to found to demonstrated that very thing. . many are thinking including me, that there is no staying in the euro or zone without austerity. an exit needs to be organized. there is no need for years of endlessly trying to negotiate with the austerity crowd. and an exit plan that includes the support of the people and working with other anti austerity groups within the union/zone. imho

eta: always in the back of my mind is the posibility of the military stepping in. this thought is tough to deal with when trying to make change. and i can't say that i have any answers but will say that care is needed.

ken

..for starters compared to the reports that 40 syriza mps are petitioning that the central committee be convened to discuss what compromises are being agreed to.

..please be specific in your criticisms ken. not all posts are the same and many raise important questions even though betrayal is mentioned. this is an important debate not only for greece but for others all over the world who want understand what is going on. discover what lessons are to be learned even in these early stages.

Greece to stop privatisations as Syriza faces backlash on deal

Greece's Left-wing Syriza government has vowed to block plans to privatise strategic assets and called for sweeping changes to past deals, risking a fresh clash with the eurozone's creditor powers just days after a tense deal in Brussels.

"We will cancel the privatisation of the Piraeus Port," said George Stathakis, the economy minister. "It will remain permanently under state majority holding. There is no good reason to turn it into a private monopoly, as we made clear from the first day.

"The deal for the sale of the Greek airports will have to be drastically revised. It all goes to one company. There is no way it will get through the Greek parliament."

The new energy minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis, warned that Syriza will not sell the Greek state's 51pc holding of the electricity utility PPC, power grid ADMIE or state gas company DEPA. "There will be no energy privatisations," he said....

quote:

Yet the Syriza leadership risks falling between two stools as it tries chip away at the austerity regime without triggering Greece's ejection from the euro. A closed-door crisis meeting of the party at the Greek parliament erupted in an emotional storm, running for 12 hours as the group's Left Platform voiced their anger over the retreat in Brussels.

"A lot of Syriza MPs are very troubled by the deal and they are being pretty open about it. The fault lines are clear," said one MP, emerging for a shot of caffeine.

"We're in uncharted territory and we don't know how this is going to end. But there is a very strong sense that we should hold together come what may. We are not going to split," he told The Telegraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11435649/Greece-to-stop-pri...

Collecting taxes from the rich and making them face the consequences would solve political, economic, and treaty obligations for Syriza. Syriza needs to start threatening nationalizations.