You Liberals have benn gloating for months that O'regan has it in the bag.
Your arrogance may be premature in St. John's South and elsewhere.
Federal election Polling - Abacus Data
Tue, 2015-03-03 19:43
#52
Tue, 2015-03-03 19:48
#53
You Liberals have benn gloating for months that O'regan has it in the bag. Your arrogance may be premature in St. John's South and elsewhere.
Please provide links to articles/posts to back up your claim that Liberals have been "gloating" that O'Regan "has it in the bag".
Btw, if you think the NDP never acts arrogant, one only has to look at some of the threads posted here to learn otherwise.
Tue, 2015-03-03 20:23
#54
The NDP presently has mid-twenties per cent support by the most accurate pollsters Canadian pollsters.
The NDP is at about 20% right now. (See the latest National average on Eric Grenier's site here:)
http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html
So the NDP is NOT 9 points higher than it was going into the 2011 Election.
And what's important is to look at what has changed SINCE the 2011 Election. The NDP is about 10 points LOWER than it was on May 2, 2011. Meanwhile the Liberals are about 15 points HIGHER than during the 2011 Election.
No one is making any definitive predictions about the next election, but ignoring all the changes of the last 4 years does not make any sense.
Tue, 2015-03-03 20:33
#55
Current NDP National Average = 20.8% as of March 2, 2015
Tue, 2015-03-03 20:37
#56
Grenier is connected with the Liberal CBC and is an authoirty only in your mind.
Robbins has the NDP at 29% - who is correct?
Current NDP National Average = 20.8% as of March 2, 2015
Tue, 2015-03-03 20:37
#57
Grenier is connected with the Liberal CBC and is an authorirty only in your mind.
Robbins has the NDP at 29% - who is correct?
Current NDP National Average = 20.8% as of March 2, 2015
Tue, 2015-03-03 20:39
#58
Grenier is connected with the Liberal CBC and is an authority only in your mind.
Robbins has the NDP at 28% - who is correct?
Tue, 2015-03-10 16:15
#59
The recent Abacus Data poll on leadership abilities augers well for the NDP with their seasoned Leader Tom Mulcair at the helm. One of Tom's biggest strengths in the upcoming election campaign will be his connection with Canada's Seniors, and Seniors vote in a much higher percentage than other age demographics. The NDP needs to focus a lot of their energies on Seniors, Women, and Canada's Visible Minorities. If the NDP do that they could win.
Political Leaders as Brands: What do Voters See?
Our latest nationwide polling asked respondents to consider a series of choices of words or thoughts and asked which they most associated with three main party leaders. Our findings:
For Thomas Mulcair
His strongest attributes were: good guy, serious and competent. More than 70% associated these thoughts with the NDP leader. 60% or more also associated Mr. Mulcair with: successful, good ideas, brilliant (the other choice was “lacking intelligence”), trustworthy, even-tempered, future, experienced, thinks of others, reasonable (not “radical”) and new ideas.
Wed, 2015-03-25 14:52
#60
Fri, 2015-03-27 11:54
#61
NDP in mid-twenties (23%) in latest Abacus poll 
Fri, 2015-03-27 12:03
#62
Abacus Poll today
Party / Feb 15 '15 / Mar 15 '15 / Change
Cons / 35% / 32% / Down 3%
NDP 21% / 23% / Up 2%
Libs / 34% / 33% / Down 1%
BQ / 4% / 4% / Unchanged
Grns / 4% / 6% / Up 2%
Fri, 2015-03-27 12:05
#63
NDP at 24% in Ontario.
Fri, 2015-03-27 13:57
#64
According to Abacus Tom continues to be dogged by lack of recognition. Fully half of the electorate is "neutral about him. But among those with opinions:
Harper 29% poitive (down 5% in a month) 45% negative
Trudeau 35% +, 30% -
Mulcair 29%+, 20% -
So among those who have formed a positive/ negative opinion:
Harper 40%
Trudeau 54%
Mulcair 59%
Fri, 2015-03-27 15:10
#65
Does Abacus have a typo?
Overall, the results are largely unchanged from our previous poll in February which had the Conservatives at 35% and the Liberals at 34% and the NDP at 24%.
Fri, 2015-03-27 15:20
#66
Abacus tends to be more generous towards the NDP with its numbers, but I think it's certainly possible that the NDP has received an uptick of a couple of points.
Mulcair has become more focused in his campaign tactics since Brad Lavigne returned to the NDP inner circle. Mulcair was struggling a couple of months ago, but I think he's been finding his stride again lately.
It's good to see the Conservatives drop 3 points.
And Abacus says that Harper's negatives have gone up.
Liberals and Tories Tied as Harper’s Negatives Rise
http://abacusdata.ca/liberals-and-tories-tied-as-harpers-negatives-rise/
Fri, 2015-03-27 15:41
#67
Just look at the numbers and decide for yourselves.
NDP is now up across Canada and in the mid-twenties support range, and the NDP is up 5%, to 24% support, in Ontario.
Mulcair once again leads in the leadership category.
And don't forget CROP has the best track record in Quebec, and the reason CROP was set up in the first place was that outside Quebec polling firms weren't able to accurately assess Quebec voter intentions.
Fri, 2015-03-27 15:47
#68
The NDP is not in the mid-twenties yet, nor is it necessarily at 24% in Ontario.
That's what this poll says, but as any pollster or numbers analyst knows, you can't make conclusions based on one poll. You look at a whole series of them. Most other polls have the NDP lower than that in Ontario.
If other polls show the same thing, then we will know there has been movement.
Fri, 2015-03-27 16:06
#69
Finally Mulcair is differentating himself from Trudeau, is on a roll and we have great polling news here today for the NDP.
The NDP up 2% overall to the mid-twenties, up 5% to 24% in Ontario, and Mulcair is leading in the best prime minister category.
Fri, 2015-03-27 20:51
#70
The NDP is not in the mid-twenties yet, nor is it necessarily at 24% in Ontario.
That's what this poll says, but as any pollster or numbers analyst knows, you can't make conclusions based on one poll. You look at a whole series of them. Most other polls have the NDP lower than that in Ontario.
If other polls show the same thing, then we will know there has been movement.
Remember this post when you come to drive some good poll for the Liberals down our throats -- okay?
And it is not just one poll -- we have seen leadership numbers and issue-specific polls moving so we have an idea as to why this is happening. I expected this -- it actually has taken a few more weeks longer to happen than I thought.
Fri, 2015-03-27 21:20
#71
I am sure Debater will have some excuse for the Liberals dropping from 32.1 to 28.5% in the EKOS poll released today. Or for the NDP gaining 2% since last week and 5% since January.
Fri, 2015-03-27 22:16
#72
Or for the NDP gaining 2% since last week and 5% since January.
After losing 7% since October.
Fri, 2015-03-27 22:37
#73
Abacus Data - Mar 22 '15
Party / Sep 14 '14 / Oct 17 '14 / Nov 4 '14 / Dec 20 '14 / Jan 28 '15 / Feb '15 / Mar '15 / Change
Cons / 30% /30% /30% / 34% / 33% / 35% / 32% / Up 2%
NDP / 23% / 25% / 24% / 22% / 24% / 21% / 23% / Unchanged
Libs / 38% / 32% / 35% / 33% / 32% / 34% / 33% / Down 5%
BQ / 3% / 4% / 4% / 4% / 4% / 4% / 4% / Up 1%
Grns / 8% / 6% / 6% / 5% / 4% / 6% / Down 2%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...
Fri, 2015-03-27 23:04
#74
With the NDP now sitting at 24% support in Ontario, that is less than 2% what they got in the 2011 election when they got 22 seats.
If the NDP was able to get 30% support in Ontario in the 2015 election how many seats would they get?
Sat, 2015-03-28 00:25
#75
With the NDP now sitting at 24% support in Ontario, that is less than 2% what they got in the 2011 election when they got 22 seats.
If the NDP was able to get 30% support in Ontario in the 2015 election how many seats would they get?
Easily enough to govern if they got that many in Ontario -- but I don't see it.
26-28% would already be fantastic
Sat, 2015-03-28 12:11
#76
If the NDP was able to get 30% support in Ontario in the 2015 election how many seats would they get?
26-30. And that's including the increase in seats.
Sat, 2015-03-28 12:50
#77
If the NDP got 30% in Ontario, it would win 145 seats in Ontario alone!
Sat, 2015-03-28 12:51
#78
Abacus always overestimates NDP support, it was also sun news network pollster!
Sat, 2015-03-28 12:57
#79
That appears to be incredibly low, after all the NDP won 22 seats with 25.6% of the vote in 2011. What are you basing your projection on?
What's also interesting is that at 24% right now, the NDP is quite close to what it received in Ontario in 2011, before a lot of Ontario voters even know Tom Mulcair. It would seem with a good election campaign the NDP does have a chance for a majority government after all. And my over-riding concern is that unless the NDP gets a majority government we will not get rid of our Corporate Canada elites running our country.
If the NDP was able to get 30% support in Ontario in the 2015 election how many seats would they get?
26-30. And that's including the increase in seats.
Sat, 2015-03-28 12:58
#80
That appears to be incredibly low, after all the NDP won 22 seats with 25.6% of the vote in 2011. What are you basing your projection on?
http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php
Set it to "descending % of NDP vote" and "Ontario". They only lost two seats by less that 10% to the Conservatives.
Sat, 2015-03-28 13:43
#81
Thanks. I will explore that.
Wed, 2015-04-29 14:37
#82
Federal Budget a Success for Conservatives
The Upshot?
This is one of the more positive polls for the Conservatives in some time. Pessimism about the economy is limited and has reduced lately. Most people think the economy is in reasonable shape and only a third of voters are angry with the government about the state of the economy.
Budgets are often highly polarizing, as parties in power make choices that create winners and losers, and partisanship and ideology are prominent. In this case, there is a positive reaction among the Conservative voters, and little frustration among voters inclined to support other parties. If the government wanted to position itself as less ideological and partisan, this budget helped.
For the opposition parties, the patterns are a signal that winning an election based on middle class anger with the economy will be no easy task, and that the Conservatives have a competitive message on that front.
- See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/federal-budget-a-success-for-conservatives/#sthash....
http://abacusdata.ca/federal-budget-a-success-for-conservatives/
Wed, 2015-04-29 15:28
#83
Federal Budget a Success for Conservatives
The Upshot?
This is one of the more positive polls for the Conservatives in some time. Pessimism about the economy is limited and has reduced lately. Most people think the economy is in reasonable shape and only a third of voters are angry with the government about the state of the economy.
Budgets are often highly polarizing, as parties in power make choices that create winners and losers, and partisanship and ideology are prominent. In this case, there is a positive reaction among the Conservative voters, and little frustration among voters inclined to support other parties. If the government wanted to position itself as less ideological and partisan, this budget helped.
For the opposition parties, the patterns are a signal that winning an election based on middle class anger with the economy will be no easy task, and that the Conservatives have a competitive message on that front.
- See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/federal-budget-a-success-for-conservatives/#sthash....
http://abacusdata.ca/federal-budget-a-success-for-conservatives/
Yes and no-- I see the interpretation but I don't buy it.
Have a look at the undecided in this poll. Look how their views on the direction of the economy and blame of government align with the opposition. Looks to me like there are a good number of undecided voters considering the opposition parties but not the Conservatives. Any uncertainty between NDP and Liberals will make the Conservatives go up in the polls while they decide (as they drop into the undecided stats) -- but these are anti-conservative votes.
Next, look at the rationale: the pollster suggests that the fact the budget may help a number of people means they support it. Sounds more stupid the more you think about it. Income splitting will technically help us in our house for example. Not very much but it will. But that does not mean I want it or think that it is a good spending choice. I don't judge a budget solely by my tax bill and a lot of other voters will agree with me -- especially when the help is extremely little. The poll did not ask if the budget could have helped more or helped in the right way. The question basically asks if you get anything out of it.
It is a bit like asking people if a bribe would help them and then, if they say yes, presuming that they then want the bribe. Not so fast.
Wed, 2015-04-29 19:52
#84
That appears to be incredibly low, after all the NDP won 22 seats with 25.6% of the vote in 2011. What are you basing your projection on?
http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php
Set it to "descending % of NDP vote" and "Ontario". They only lost two seats by less that 10% to the Conservatives.
And if the vote is the same in the next election as it was in 2011, the Liberals would lose 17 seats by less than 10% to the Conservatives in Ontario. Going by the last election, in Ontario alone, the CPC has 18 marginal seats, seats that they won by less than 10 percentage points. The NDP comes in second place only once in those 18 ridings while the LPC comes in second place the other 17 times!
Wed, 2015-04-29 20:18
#85
That appears to be incredibly low, after all the NDP won 22 seats with 25.6% of the vote in 2011. What are you basing your projection on?
http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php
Set it to "descending % of NDP vote" and "Ontario". They only lost two seats by less that 10% to the Conservatives.
UBC's election stock market shows that the CPC won a lot more marginal seats with the LPC in second place than with the NDP in second place. This is especially interesting considering that the NDP came in second place nationally by a very wide margin over the LPC. Going by the 2011 election, in this election the CPC have 35 marginal seats across Canada, seats where they won by less than 10 percentage points in the last election. Of those 35 seats the LPC came in second place 25 times while the NDP came in second 10 times. So even with just 19% of the votes, the LPC are in over twice as many marginal races with the CPC than the NDP is.
Thu, 2015-04-30 11:19
#86
montrealer58
Ontario Premier Wynne seems to be performing quite well for the NDP!
Thu, 2015-04-30 11:26
#87
Let's put things in perspective: it is the Liberals that are in a nosedive and if this trend continues the Liberals will soon be overtaken by the NDP
NDP once again within 4% of the Liberals and the NDP now has 23% support in Ontario
Abacus Data
Party / Feb 16 / Mar 22 / Apr 24 / Change
Cons / 35% / 32% / 36% / Up 1%
NDP / 21% / 23% / 24% / Up 3%
Libs - 34% / 33% / 28% / Down 6%
http://abacusdata.ca/budget-propels-conservatives-to-8-point-lead/
Thu, 2015-04-30 11:27
#88
That's correct: Sometimes Hebert is dead on but at other times she can't see the forest for the trees.
Thu, 2015-04-30 12:19
#89
Arthur Cramer
As I've said over and over, these polls show the NDP's support has always been higher then people, especially Debater, have desperatley been trying to say to the contrary. The Libs don't have this in their pockets; they can ONLY win if they can make the NDP collapse. People are getting tired of them, and want something else. And it AIN"T LE DAUPHIN!
Thu, 2015-04-30 12:32
#90
Ontario Premier Wynne seems to be performing quite well for the NDP!
LMFAO.
Thu, 2015-04-30 12:46
#91
You know, I was softening my approach to Liberals over the last few years. Fortunately the Liberals on this site have corrected me in this. I now have returned to seeing the Liberal party as the greatest impediment to social and political progress in this country. I think that the destruction of the Liebral party is an essential step to getting a better government in Canada. The only way to beat the Conservatives soundly is to obliterate the Liberal party. They are quite literally in the way.
The only cooperation should be a coalition if the seats in parliament make such a move essential. It is natural that parties that hate each other have to govern together at times and I get that even if Trudeau does not. Otherwise it is important to recognize that the Liebral party will have to be broken in order to replace the Harper government with a better vision.
Thu, 2015-04-30 12:52
#92
Harper's on his way to another election victory, Liberals are in a nose-dive, and Mulcair is the only one who can stop him because people can see the difference between the Cons and the NDP, whereas the Liberals and the Conservatives are basically offering the same thing.
Thu, 2015-04-30 15:01
#93
Harper's on his way to another election victory, Liberals are in a nose-dive, and Mulcair is the only one who can stop him because people can see the difference between the Cons and the NDP, whereas the Liberals and the Conservatives are basically offering the same thing.
Sorry, twice in one day I have to disagree with you strongly.
The Alberta story should give you pause in saying -- this far out -- that Harper is on his way to victory.
I do not accept as a given that any loss in Liberal support will necessarily go Conservative or that the NDP cannot catch the Conservatives.
It is a tough election and the Conservatives are ahead. The Liberals are in the way and an obstruction to progress. But the election is not lost and Harper has not won. Harper is a long way from a majority at this point.
Further if the Harper government gets the most seats but not a majority, I do not accept that other parties cannot work together -- or even some MPs from those parties. Trudeau can either come around or resign -- it does not matter. But if the Liberals and New Democrats have a majority the NDP should offer Liberals the opportunity to sit in a coalition government no matter what the Liberal leader thinks. This is not changing parties -- this would be a working approach to a government supported by the majority of the MPs in the Parliament.
Wed, 2015-05-20 12:13
#94
What Albertans think about their new government and energy issues.
The Upshot?
This probing on energy issues and expectations of the new government reveals still more evidence that the shift that elected the NDP was not about people looking for radical change.
Instead, mainstream voters, across the province, are looking for continued support for oil and gas development, including expanded market access, while at the same time hoping that Alberta can make more progress in terms of energy efficiency, renewable energy and playing a collaborative role with other provinces on the question of carbon pricing.
How Ms. Notley handles these high profile issues will likely have a lot to do with her ability to sustain public goodwill going forward, and needless to say, the economic pressures in the energy sector will figure significantly in the choices available to her.
- See more at: http://abacusdata.ca/what-albertans-think-about-their-new-government-and...
http://abacusdata.ca/what-albertans-think-about-their-new-government-and...
Fri, 2015-05-29 13:15
#95
What no poll results out yet - I guess they can't find results that don't show the surge in support for the Mulcair-led NDP. 
Tue, 2015-06-02 15:14
#96
Abacus Data - NDP has gained 13% on the Liberals and 11% on the Conservatives since February
Party / Feb 16 / Mar 22 / Apr 24 / May 31 / Change
Cons / 35% / 32% / 36% / 31% / Down 4%
NDP / 21% / 23% / 24% / 28% / Up 7%
Libs / 34% / 33% / 28% / 28% / Down 6%
Tue, 2015-06-02 16:47
#97
The Porcolean Bus blog has pointed out that Abacus' own spin is bullshit, they suggest the NDP surge has hit the east not the west, but the NDPs highest numbers outside Quebec are in BC and Alberta. The NDP is leading in BC and has gained +15 points in Alberta since feb.
Tue, 2015-06-02 17:12
#98
But why are you measuring from February? What's the reason for picking that month as the starting point?
What's significant is what has happened over the past month, since that's when the big CPC drop has occurred:
--
Bruce AndersonJust 15% are sure they want to see CPC re-elected. down 7 points this month
Tue, 2015-06-02 17:20
#99
What's significant is that the NDP has gained 13% on the Conservatives, and 11% on the Liberals, since February.
In politics it is momentum and trends that are the key to success.
The Cons and the Libs are trending down and the NDP are trending up.
Tue, 2015-06-02 19:23
#100
Looking at Ababus numbers the Tories base are actually just 15%, people assume that its 30%, but 15% of that are just voters playing hard to get.
Wed, 2015-06-03 00:56
#101
But that 15% are the hardcore Cons. There are another nearly 15% who are usually Con as well.
One of the challenges in this country is that the Conservatives do appear to have a pretty solid 30%. It's difficult to get them down below that number however corrupt they are. That's what makes it discouraging sometimes.
The NDP has indeed been trending up during 2015, but it seems to be topping out now. The NDP finds it tough to get above 30% in these polls.
And it's hard to know what the Liberal base number is these days.