The polls for week 2 have a high of 34% for the NDP and 30% as the low in Alberta. For Wildrose they have a high of 35% low of 20%.
I actually think 1abvote is more likely because overwise support for the Alberta Liberals, Alberta Party, and Greens went to Wildrose, I just don't see it.
The polls for week 2 have a high of 34% for the NDP and 30% as the low in Alberta. For Wildrose they have a high of 35% low of 20%.
I actually think 1abvote is more likely because overwise support for the Alberta Liberals, Alberta Party, and Greens went to Wildrose, I just don't see it.
Umm... Alberta and Liberal Party support wasn't anywhere north of 10% to begin with. 1abvote's results seem to be very good for identifying trends, but not for accurately identifying the actual numbers. They are grossly overestimating AB and LIB support and, I suspect, somewhat exaggerating NDP support as well, while underestimating the support of both the right-wing parties.
Latest Forum Poll
ND 38
WR 25
PC 20
Lib 7
AP 6
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Alberta%20Horserace%20News%20Release%...
And this is polling done Apr 22-23, so even before the full effect of Notley's resounding win in the debate could be seen.
Wow. I'm trying not to get too excited here, but these numbers and trends make that very difficult!
Maybe most astoundingly, NDP leads in every income bracket except the lowest.
NDP 38
WR 25
PC 20
Liberal 7
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/275/majority-government-seen-in-wake-of-debate/
Did Forum forecast that Wildrose would win the last election?
Did Forum forecast that Wildrose would win the last election?
Their final poll had WR by 2, which was the closest margin of the final polls.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2012#Opinion_polls
NDP take dramatic lead in Alberta
Forum
Party / Apr 7 / Apr 24 / Change
WR / 30% / 25% / Down 5%
NDP / 28% / 38% / Up 10%
PC / 27% / 20% / Down 7%
Libs / 12% / 7% / Down 7%
AP / 2% / 6% / Up 4%
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/275/majority-government-seen-in-wake-...
I hope these numbers hold up.
If the NDP win, how long until the liberals on this board say it's a Rachel Notley win not an NDP win?
Like I said I think Prentices numbers were already telling him the same thing, that's why he went gunning for Rachel.
The NDP must be doing very well in Calgary as well as Edmonton - maybe Prentice could lose his seat. That indeed would be poetic justice.
another Orange Wave?? ... imagine the effect this could have on the federal campaign! 
It could be huge - imagine right in Harper's back yard.
Vote in the last election: Last Forum poll, current Forum poll, actual results
PC 38.5 39.5 43.9
WR 25.6 20.0 34.3
ND 10.6 11.1 9.8
LB 9.1 6.7 9.9
AB 0.8 1.2 1.3
OT 4.4 3.4 0.7
This was Forum's final poll in the April 2012 election:
Thanks josh
So in the last election
Party / Forum Poll / Election Results / Difference
PCs / 36% / 44% / Under by 8%
WR / 38% / 34% / Over by 4%
NDP / 12% / 10% / Over by 2%
Wise words from Dave:http://daveberta.ca/2015/04/le...
"the first unwritten rule of Alberta politics: that the PCs always win, and they always win a big majority [this is me, managing my own expectations]."
It could be huge - imagine right in Harper's back yard.
Yup, if Rachel had Tom's job then Justin would have a much harder job ahead of him.
If Alberta elects an NDP government I will happily eat my hat.
(And stop worrying about how strong NDP polling creates another Harper majority.)
Mainstreet poll:
WR 32
NDP 31
PC 26
Libs 8
Forum and the google survey basically agree with each other, Mainstreet is the outlyer, but even they have NDP tied for 1st.
Dave in Alberta:
I am so old, I can remember when the Ontario legislature had been Blue forever, and would remain Tory forever because well, it would ... and when BC was Socred and would be forever, and when the Liberals under various federal leaders ran up non-stop QC majorities and supermajorities over decades and decades ...
BUT things change in politics, esp expectations, demographics, attitudes, leaders, memories;
nothing shields Alberta from that universal constant
Mainstreet
Party / Mar 29 / Apr 7 / Apr 13 / Apr 20 / Apr 24 / Change
WR / 30% / 31% / 31% / 35% / 32% / Up 2%
NDP / 18% / 26% / 30% / 31% / 31% / Up 13%
PC / 30% / 27% / 24% / 25% / 26% / Down 4%
Lib / 17% / 12% / 10% / 4% / 8% / Down 9%
Remmeber this was before the debate.
Forum
Party / Apr 9 / Apr 23 / Change
WR / 30% / 25% / Down 5%
NDP / 28% / 38% / Up 10%
PC / 27% / 20% / Down 7%
Lib / 12% / 7% / Down 5%
This election is so fascinating... Another poll from Pantheon research showing similar results to Forum but with a similar sample size to Mainstreet
https://www.dropbox.com/s/a6f9pndj33rpaa9/Pantheon%20Release%20Apr%2024t...
Sample size = 4,131
NDP 31.98%
Wildrose 27.28%
PC 17.79%
Liberal 5.89%
Alberta 2.24%
Undecided 14.80%
NDP leads in both Edmonton and rural North and is competitive everywhere else.
Edit... Oops double post
6 PC held seats polled. Incumbents trail in each.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-6-riding...
+
The Election Index: Alberta NDP polling at historic highs in Edmonton
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/alberta/the-election-index-alberta-n...
I ran the "party switcher" numbers in the Forum and Pantheon polls through the UBC election simulator. The first number is what the simulator gave me, the second in brackets is the number in the poll.
Forum
ND 38.0 (38)
WA 36.0 (25)
PC 19.5 (20)
LB 6.5 ( 7)
Pantheon
ND 35.9 (37.54)
WA 35.6 (32.02)
PC 21.7 (20.88)
LB 6.7 ( 6.92)
In terms of those who said they voted in 2012, both polls have Wildrose gaining more voters than they lose.
Latest Forum Poll ND 38 WR 25 PC 20 Lib 7 AP 6Maybe most astoundingly, NDP leads in every income bracket except the lowest.
Even more astoundingly, Forum Research has the NDP with its highest level of support (45%) in the highest income bracket. And the NDP also leads in the normally most small "c" conservative age demographics (and those that vote in highest proportions) - 55 - 64 and 65+.
Purported polls, such as this, showing the NDP winning gov't will cause more harm than good at the ballot box on e-day. It will spook not only potential NDP voters thinking that they will only elect a strong opposition but also right-wing types to back perhaps the PCs over the WR in order to forestall same.
Then again, we could also see a 1990 NDP victory akin to that of Bob Rae in Ontario.
NDP -- 44%
PC -- 20%
Wildrose -- 19%
Liberal -- 11%
Alberta Party -- 6%
http://1abvote.ca/poll-ndp-in-a-qualified-lead-while-math-indicates-clos...
Looks like Alberta seriously needs a PR voting system
I like the numbers... B\ut...
That was one of the worst writen post ever, a lot of spelling errors and grammer issues. I'm not generaly one to talk given my own record on spelling and grammer, but then again I'm not running an advocacy group like 1ABvote.
I agree. And as somone mentioned in the other thread, it's not usual to group the numbers by Party rather than by region.I like the numbers... B\ut...
That was one of the worst writen post ever, a lot of spelling errors and grammer issues. I'm not generaly one to talk given my own record on spelling and grammer, but then again I'm not running an advocacy group like 1ABvote.
grammar 
Truly amazin'
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015#Opinion_polls
Lol someone deleted all of the polls showing the NDP in the lead except Forum.
grammar
I think my point has been made 
grammar
and grampar?
WR - 39 seats
NDP - 24 seats
PC - 21 seats
44 seats required for majority
http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/alberta-2015-election-p...
ThreeHundredEight and this EarlJWoods both have the NDP with the most seats.
http://www.threehundredeight.com/
http://www.earljwoods.com/2015/04/alberta-election-prediction-2-of-3.html?showComment=1430199431302
The 1abvote survey has the NDP at 44%. 308's highest estimate for.the NDP is 40.7%, which 308 would expect net the NDP 51 seats, so if 1abvote is right the Alberta NDP could be looking at over 51 seats, perhaps 60?
The 1abvote survey has the NDP at 44%. 308's highest estimate for.the NDP is 40.7%, which 308 would expect net the NDP 51 seats, so if 1abvote is right the Alberta NDP could be looking at over 51 seats, perhaps 60?
The 1abvote survey has the NDP at 44%. 308's highest estimate for.the NDP is 40.7%, which 308 would expect net the NDP 51 seats, so if 1abvote is right the Alberta NDP could be looking at over 51 seats, perhaps 60?
Why do all these predictors have the Liberals with three seats in Calgary?
Why do all these predictors have the Liberals with three seats in Calgary?
Because predictors are usually based off of the last election where the Liberals were more competitive in Calgary. They slip through with the destruction of the province-wide PC vote.
I'm going to point everyone to Frank Graves' (EKOS pollster) twitter account.
Just go see.
For those who are not good at computers (old guys like me)...
Ekos results:
NDP 39.6%
PC 23%
Wildrose 23%
Liberal 6.7%
Alberta Party 4.6%
For those who are not good at computers (old guys like me)...
Ekos results:
NDP 39.6%
PC 23%
Wildrose 23%
Liberal 6.7%
Alberta Party 4.6%
Just remember this is an embargoed draft with more results being added to it tonight
I'll wait to see the regional breakdowns. Looks like it is consistent overall with the AB1 vote survey, at least in the NDP trend. If the PC and the WR votes were split in the right locations. a majority is possible.
