Latest polling thread April 28th, 2015

Only if the Liberals fall to 18% again like they did last time. Is that what you're predicting?

NorthReport wrote:

Thanks MegB

EKOS latest poll

Cons - 32%

NDP - 24%, only 4% behind the Liberals

Libs - 28%go

It's good news.  From the link,

Quote:

Thomas Mulcair has entered the race again and is now within range of the leaders and much better positioned than his predecessor at this stage in 2011. It remains the case, however, that neither Trudeau nor Mulcair have been able to grab much attention from a podium that is currently owned by Harper and his Conservative Party.

So, Ekos still feels that it's the Cons with the advantage, but that the NDP is still in range.  Depending upon how the campaign goes, it could get very interesting.

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Only if the Liberals fall to 18% again like they did last time. Is that what you're predicting?

I'm confident the Liberals will win this election but if they don't it will be the Conservatives. Conservative approval numbers are very high. 

In my opinion Trudeau's numbers are as soft as they are going to be. They won't move more than a percentage or two at most until they start to rise.  

The Conservatives and Liberals are competing neck and neck with the NDP in 3rd place. While that could change for the NDP I don't see the conditions that would make it happen either in terms of public sentiment and mood nor in the choices that have been made by the executive. I don't think those things are going to change. 

Trudeau has economic heavyweights on his team that are going to come up with a solid appealing plan but Harper has sustained a lot of support. 

NorthReport wrote:

Among Millennials, No Political Party Has a Commanding Lead

Why that’s good for Harper, and bad for progressives vying to defeat him.

 

http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/04/27/Millennials-No-Political-Party-Leads/

I don't share the premise of the article -- that a party like the NDP should focus on the 18-34 crowd. When it comes to policies certianly the NDP should do right by them and I support policies that ought to attract them but I do not agree that it is sound political strategy to make them the focus.

The idea that people vote for their own interest has long been discredited. People usually vote for what they percieve to be their interest and perceptions are formed by much more than reality. But the reality is that even if you convince the 18-34 set that they should vote for you this does not mean that they will -- you then have to get them to the polls.

The best pool for potential voters for the NDP may still be older people. The reasons are:

1) If you convince an older person to vote NDP it has in many cases double the impact as they would mostly likely be voting for the other parties otherwise so you are not only going up a vote the other party is going down.

2) Once you convince younger people to support you that is still a long way from half the battle as getting them to vote could well involve more effort than convincing an existing voter to change her/his mind.

3) Young people are optimistic. Many may aspire to not needing social justice while people who have lived a while understand more easily that life does not always work out the way you need.

4) Older people really do need better social policies

5) During the Layton Orange Crush older people were moving to thte NDP -- this is what you need to have happen.

Pondering wrote:

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Only if the Liberals fall to 18% again like they did last time. Is that what you're predicting?

I'm confident the Liberals will win this election but if they don't it will be the Conservatives. Conservative approval numbers are very high.

We've seen already that a merely mediocre performance from the Liberasl isn't enough to give Harper a majority. So you're saying, in essence, that if the Liberals don't shoot forward in support, then they will plummet to less than the 18% they got last time. This is actually my analysis as well. Either Justin gets really impressive very soon, or support will start fleeing from him.

The part you're missing (intentionally or otherwise) is the fact that the Liberals have lost support in each election. If they tank again, it won't be to 18% a second time. This time it will be much lower, and most of that support will go to the NDP. So this scenario doesn't produce a Conservative victory. it produces an NDP victory. Which is why it is the outcome we should all be hoping for.

Quote:

In my opinion Trudeau's numbers are as soft as they are going to be. They won't move more than a percentage or two at most until they start to rise.  

This directly contradicts what you said about either the Liberals or the Cons winning. The only way the Cons can win is by the Liberals collapsing, and even then they would have to prevent that support from going to the NDP, but there is no way for them to do that. The Conservatives can't win the next election. There is no plausible scenario for that.

Harper's Atlantic upside limited

But despite the relative improvement of the Conservatives' position, the prospects for further Tory growth may be slim. Stephen Harper's approval rating in Atlantic Canada is his worst in the country. In the last three polls, he has averaged just 22 per cent approval. His 72 per cent average disapproval rating suggests he has little room for growth in the region. Instead, the recent bump limits his losses.

Thomas Mulcair of the NDP, however, does have the potential for some serious inroads. His average approval rating is 54 per cent in recent polls in Atlantic Canada, with his disapproval rating at just 24 per cent. So Mulcair is polling significantly higher than his own party.

That may be the reason why the NDP has not yet made important gains in the region. With the Liberals still leading, they may appear to many Atlantic Canadians as the better alternative to the governing party. Trudeau himself is not the problem, as his approval rating of 55 per cent in recent polls, compared to a 31 per cent disapproval rating, has been holding steady since the beginning of the year. This suggests his party's numbers are unlikely to dip much more.

But the Liberal landslide in Atlantic Canada that looked inevitable just a few months ago is gone, for now at least. While the Liberals should still do well in the region, the Conservatives and New Democrats are no longer fighting for their lives.

As bad news goes, it could be much worse for the Liberals.

A victory by Wade MacLauchlan's Liberals in P.E.I. next week would continue the party's impressive run of provincial victories in the region. But if the margin of victory turns out to be closer than even the CRA poll suggested, it would send a strong sign to the Liberals that Atlantic Canada cannot be taken for granted.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-lead-in-atlantic-canada-still-wi...

There is nothing on the horizon to indicate that Trudeau is going to be any match whatsoever for Harper in the upcoming election. Nothing at all. As a matter of fact it is getting worse and worse each and every day for the Liberals. Canadians are sick and tired of Liberal excuses. Thank goodness there is an alternative with the Official Opposition Leader Mulcair-led NDP, and more and more Canadians are turning to the NDP with each passing day.

And where is that lazy Trudeau today as he is not doing his job in the House of Commons.

No the Cons can win but it just as likely they wont.

What is sure at this point the Liberals can't beat them, neither can the NDP but they are going the the right direction poll wise and profile wise.

The only way the liberals win is if the NDP collapese and contrary to your running theme the liberal policy (if they even have one at the moment) isn't going to acomplish that. And it sure as heck isn't going to pull Tory voters not without pushing away what  progressive voters they have now.

Pondering wrote:

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

 We've seen already that a merely mediocre performance from the Liberasl isn't enough to give Harper a majority. So you're saying, in essence, that if the Liberals don't shoot forward in support, then they will plummet to less than the 18% they got last time. This is actually my analysis as well. Either Justin gets really impressive very soon, or support will start fleeing from him.

He doesn't need a majority to win. 

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

 The part you're missing (intentionally or otherwise) is the fact that the Liberals have lost support in each election. If they tank again, it won't be to 18% a second time. This time it will be much lower, and most of that support will go to the NDP. So this scenario doesn't produce a Conservative victory. it produces an NDP victory. Which is why it is the outcome we should all be hoping for.

That's your theory. Parties rise and fall. They rarely just keep going in one direction. The Martin/Chretien years split the party, Dion was a fluke, Ignatieff was imposed on the party. Times change and the Liberals are much stronger now. They are united behind Trudeau despite the anonymous grumbling the right-wing rags are doing. I wouldn't even be surprised if they are tearing him down to build him back up when he releases his platform. Or maybe they really are that dedicated to the Harperites. 

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

 This directly contradicts what you said about either the Liberals or the Cons winning. The only way the Cons can win is by the Liberals collapsing, and even then they would have to prevent that support from going to the NDP, but there is no way for them to do that. The Conservatives can't win the next election. There is no plausible scenario for that.

The cons would win right now and LIberal support hasn't collapsed.

There are many plausible scenarios for the Conservatives to win the election, but not as many for them to win a majority. Liberal support may or may not be waning, but probably not enough to enable a Conservative majority yet. On the other hand the Liberals may be self-serving enough to allow a Conservatives minority government in the hopes they can win a majority in the next election.

What the Alberta election campaign is showing is that the campaign matters.

Trudeau's position on C-51 is unforgivable.

Pondering wrote:

It is not "propaganda" for me to say I don't believe the NDP can win anymore then you saying you think they can win is propaganda.

I agree with Sean that any of the three main parties can win given the numbers we have now, a little less than six months from the election. I also believe that the view that only the Conservatives or Liberals can win is "biased". Not necessarily propaganda, but "biased. In other words, not taking all of the facts into account.

Pondering wrote:

I do think Trudeau made a significant mistake on C-51 but I don't think it's fatal. 

A mistake? That's what it was,  a mistake? You mean like turning right instead of left at the last intersection, or picking up the wrong canned Cat food? A mistake? I guess you mean, it doesn't matter if he supports it, he shouldn't have admitted it?

That's so cynical. Well Pondering, there is no question C51 has really hurt him. You better hope you're right that people don't care and will let Le Dauphin off the hook.

Oh by the way, when Trudeau does't repeal C51 if elected PM what are you going to say then, Opps, another mistake?

That's very, very, very, very, sad, "Pondering". I guess anything goes, eh?

Left Turn wrote:

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

The part you're missing (intentionally or otherwise) is the fact that the Liberals have lost support in each election. If they tank again, it won't be to 18% a second time. This time it will be much lower, and most of that support will go to the NDP. So this scenario doesn't produce a Conservative victory. it produces an NDP victory. Which is why it is the outcome we should all be hoping for.

The big mistake I think Pondering is making is vastly overestimating Justin's "star" power. While I agree that Justin is a "star" candidate of sorts, I also think he's a moderate "star" at best (a "star" candidate being someone who can win a a noticeable number of votes from people who don't clearly prefer their party's platform). Pondering seems to think that Justin is enough of a "star" candidate that it nullifies the Liberals disadvantage of only having won 34 seats in the last election.

Actually I would agree with that. I do think it nullifies the Liberal's disadvantage in that regard.

That said -- this means that Trudeau's troubles and are of his own making. If he loses the next election and destroys his party -- it will be because of his obvious unfitness for the office and mistakes he is making.

If he wins, it will be becuase of his star power in spite of these things.

Trudeau definitely has given life to the Liberal party -- without him, we would not be even considering the possibility of a Liberal victory. He now defines the Liberal party almost completely -- both its advantages and disadvantages are about him.

There is a great deal of nostalgia tied up in trudeau and the projection of many people's hopes  for what he could be. He comes ont he scene as Canada's reputation and stature have been diminished and our institutions have been weakened. There is no doubt that a "blast from the past" candidate like him provides a great deal of attraction.

Of course I also think it would be potentially disastrous if he became PM. But I do not minimize his role in putting th Liberals into the mix again.

Left Turn wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Actually I would agree with that. I do think it nullifies the Liberal's disadvantage in that regard.

Sean, I'm talking about the 5-10% "ballot box bump" that I belive most incumbents get on e-day. I don't believe Justin is enough of a "star" candidate to eliminate that as a determining factor in who gets elected. And given that the Liberals won't have nearly as many incumbents up for re-election as the Conservatives or the NDP, this "ballot box bump" will work against the Liberals.

That said, I think that most of the class of 2011 Conservative MP's in Ontario (with the possible exception of Joe Oliver) will not get a ballot box bump this time around; however, I also think they lost this within the first two years after the 2011 election, well before Justin's ascention to the leadership of the Liberal Party.

I hear you -- I just don't agree.

I do think that Trudeau is a star big enough to nullify the disadvantage of not being an incumbent. The lack of star power is not at all his problem.

When he first became leader he was given an equal share of the stage by the media, commentators and voters. He has not lived up to it, yet he still hangs on with more attention than deserved -- precisely becuase he is that big of a star.

The reason he is not doing any better is his performance. If he had performed anywhere near expected he would be significantly higher in the polls than he is now. He is not suffering form being in third spot more than he is benefitting from being the son of a PM that was remembered more fondly in history than he was while PM. There is a huge cultural benefit to being Pierre Trudeau's son -- so in politics Justin is a rock star -- as big as you can get. Any failure to deliver on this would be entirely due to JT's sub-par performance.

To consider the star metaphor is quite apt. He is the most noticeable of all the candidates-- and if everyone learns that this star, like many others, is composed of hot burning gas, this is not becuase he was not a star, was not given a chance, or did not get enough attention. No, Trudeau's star power raised the Liberals into contention. His performance may well take them right out of it.

First time the Conservatives have hit 36% in a Federal poll since January 27, 2013

Left Turn wrote:

And why is this deserving of a bottle of champagne? :roll eyes:

There are some around here who get very giddy when the Conservatives go up in the polls.

What utter bullshit!

Just Liberal paranoia and misguided sense of entitlement

bekayne wrote:

Left Turn wrote:

And why is this deserving of a bottle of champagne? :roll eyes:

There are some around here who get very giddy when the Conservatives go up in the polls.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I think it is the proximity between the NDP and Liberals. If the NDP can pass the Liebrals they can take on the Conservatives. If they are stuck behind the Liberals there is less hope of beating the Conservatives. As I said before the Liberals are in the way. I suspect that the Conservative numbers will not be sustainable as more pay attention to the election. I don't see the Conservatives matching their 2011 vote this time.

Yeah, this is what I think some folks like NR get giddy about. Though that's not what other people like Debater want you to think they get giddy about.

I'll only get giddy if both the Liberals AND the Conservatives go down, by more than the margin of error, in poliing by multiple major polling firms.

Any polling that shows the Conservatives up outiside the margin of error is cause for concern, regardless of what it does to Liberal numbers.

At the moment, the Conservatives are benefitting from balancing the budget and fulfilling their tax credit promises. This is cause for concern, the worry being that some voters who oppose things like C-51 and the Senate scandal may give the Conservatives a pass because of the budget's fiscal maneuvres.

Polling from the Alberta campaign reminds us all of two things...

1. It ain't over till it's over!

2. Leadership Matters.

Pondering wrote:

 

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

That said -- this means that Trudeau's troubles and are of his own making. If he loses the next election and destroys his party -- it will be because of his obvious unfitness for the office and mistakes he is making.

If he wins, it will be becuase of his star power in spite of these things.

lol what a convenient perspective for NDP supporters. The NDP is never to blame for its losses but aways to credit for its wins. The liberals must always be blamed for their losses but are never responsible for their wins.

If Trudeau wins it won't be because of any imaginary "star power".  It will be because of the team he has assembled and the platform he creates with them as well as the vision for Canada that he presents.

If he doesn't win, it won't mean that the Liberal party has been destroyed.

The Liberals current standing is due to Trudeau keeping his head low for the most part while Harper and Mulcair dominate the press. That won't continue indefinitely. When the press does turn towards Trudeau it won't be because of star power it will be because he is making policy announcements.

 

Burping (also known as belching, ructus, or eructation) is the release of gas from the digestive tract (mainly esophagus and stomach) through the mouth. It is usually accompanied with a typical sound and, at times, an odor.

Left Turn wrote:

Pondering wrote:

It's opponents who have emphasized Trudeau's "star power" not me. Trudeau has never been a star. Trudeau has name-recognition and familiarity not star power.

Trudeau's familiarity and name recognition are his "star" power. That and his hair and overall good looks.

Trudeau's success has nothing to do with his actions. It's entirely to do with superficialities; which is why, as more voters decide that superficialities are not enough for the job of Prime Minister, Liberal polling numbers have gone down.

It's a theory. Familiarity and name recognition cut both ways. I think supporters themselves are better placed to define why they support him. In my opinion the honeymoon bump all leaders experience was higher than normal because the Liberal party remains the first choice of many voters so any credible leader would have gotten a lot of support, coupled with an extra bounce for the Trudeau name. The extra bounce is gone now. Potential supporters want to see more cards on the table.

People need to see his platform before his support will rise. That is to be expected. Expect announcements to begin within the month. Broad outlines will begin to take shape for the summer BBQ season.

Things are looking up for the federal NDP in Atlantic Canada based on an aggregate of polls taken over the last few weeks, while the Libs' numbers are in decline, leading to the Libs winning only roughly half the region's ridings instead of three quarters if these numbers held up (and we know how quickly things can change from Alberta and Quebec).

Furthermore, Mulcair has a 54% approval rating vs a 24% disapproval rating (+30%), while Trudeau is 55%/31% (+24%), and Harper stinks the joint out at 22%/72% (-50%). As the article notes, there is plenty room for growth for the NDP under these circumstances.

Quote:

As recently as early March, the federal Liberal party held a very comfortable advantage over its rivals in the region. The party was polling at 52 per cent in ThreeHundredEight.com's March 2 projection, with the Conservatives at 23 per cent, the New Democrats at 17 per cent, and the Greens at 5.5 per cent.

That 29-point edge for the Liberals signaled a landslide victory. The party could have captured between 22 and 24 of the region's 32 seats with those levels of support. The Conservatives would have been reduced dramatically, with Peter MacKay potentially being the only Conservative outside of New Brunswick to survive the cull. For the New Democrats, only Jack Harris and Peter Stoffer looked like a lock for re-election.

But fortunes have changed in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals are now averaging just 44.5 per cent support, their worst performance in the region in almost two years. The Conservatives, at 26 per cent, are putting up their best numbers since then. And the NDP, at 20 per cent, is at its highest level of support since last fall.

These estimates are based on an aggregate of polls stretching back several weeks, with newer surveys weighted more heavily. And those surveys are taking a negative turn for the Liberals.

Of the last five, the Liberals have registered just 42 to 44 per cent support. The last time the party put together numbers like that in five consecutive polls was before Trudeau became leader in 2013.

Instead of winning three-quarters of Atlantic Canada's seats, the Liberals might instead win just over half. While that is a big improvement over the 12 seats the party won in 2011, it is nevertheless far below some of the high expectations the party might have had last year. With the potential to win between 17 and 22 seats at these levels, the Liberals will have to make good those prospective losses in provinces like Ontario and Quebec, where their poll numbers are slumping.

The Conservatives could win between seven and 11 seats with these levels of support, still below the 14 seats they took in 2011, while the New Democrats could win between three and five. The NDP won six in the last election.

Harper's Atlantic upside limited

But despite the relative improvement of the Conservatives' position, the prospects for further Tory growth may be slim. Stephen Harper's approval rating in Atlantic Canada is his worst in the country. In the last three polls, he has averaged just 22 per cent approval. His 72 per cent average disapproval rating suggests he has little room for growth in the region. Instead, the recent bump limits his losses.

Thomas Mulcair of the NDP, however, does have the potential for some serious inroads. His average approval rating is 54 per cent in recent polls in Atlantic Canada, with his disapproval rating at just 24 per cent. So Mulcair is polling significantly higher than his own party.

That may be the reason why the NDP has not yet made important gains in the region. With the Liberals still leading, they may appear to many Atlantic Canadians as the better alternative to the governing party. Trudeau himself is not the problem, as his approval rating of 55 per cent in recent polls, compared to a 31 per cent disapproval rating, has been holding steady since the beginning of the year. This suggests his party's numbers are unlikely to dip much more.

But the Liberal landslide in Atlantic Canada that looked inevitable just a few months ago is gone, for now at least. While the Liberals should still do well in the region, the Conservatives and New Democrats are no longer fighting for their lives.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-lead-in-atlantic-canada-still-wi...

Debater wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I think it is the proximity between the NDP and Liberals. If the NDP can pass the Liebrals they can take on the Conservatives. If they are stuck behind the Liberals there is less hope of beating the Conservatives.

Didn't we hear this NDP spin in 2011?

In 2011 the NDP surged to nearly 31% of the vote, and the Liberals crashed below 19% and yet the NDP still finished a very distant 2nd to Stephen Harper.

Here it is 4 years later.  Why is the NDP once again claiming that it can beat the Conservatives when there is no evidence to suggest that?

The NDP passed the Liberals in 2011 and had their shot at taking on the Conservatives.  And they failed.  Big time.

No it is the Liberals who failed big time but thanks for playing.

The NDP came quite close when you consider the distance and coming from the mid teens in support.

Future looks good.

The Liberals, however, are in the way.

And yes once the NDP is solidly past the Liberals they will be competative with the Conservatives. The process may take more than one eleciton which is why I sure hope that we don't slide back behind the waste-of-time party in October.

But at least voting NDP does mean we are voting for change in policies unlike the more cosmetic change the Liberals offer.

Burping?