The NDP might very well have formed the government in 2011, had the campaign continued for a week or two more. I am convinced of it. Certainly the Tories would not have a majority.
Latest polling thread April 28th, 2015
Sat, 2015-05-02 02:36
#52
Sat, 2015-05-02 03:08
#53
The thing about 2011 was that it was big shock to the country's identity. Even with the polls, many people couldn't believe that the Liberals could come out so poorly. They just didn't know how to react. This time, everyone is pretty used to the idea. If the Libs start tanking again ( which is looking more likely with every passing day) then people won't throw good votes after bad. They'll do the rational thing and switch to the NDP. This election, there is no middle ground for the Libs. If they can't stay competitive with the Cons, they will collapse completely. Much worse than last time. They will be wiped off the map and the NDP will take government.
Sat, 2015-05-02 04:49
#54
The Liberals, however, are in the way.
And yes once the NDP is solidly past the Liberals they will be competative with the Conservatives. The process may take more than one eleciton which is why I sure hope that we don't slide back behind the waste-of-time party in October.
I agree that the LPC is not a progressive party but unfortunately they attract a lot of votes from the centre-left side of the political spectrum. This is probably because In the past LPC governments have inacted progressive policies when they have had minority governments that have been supported by the NDP. So I think if the next election ends up with the CPC winning another phoney FPTP "majority" because of vote splitting on the centre-left between the NDP, LPC, and GPC, and BQ; I think many people on the centre-left are going to be very exasperated and they'll expect a lot more formal cooperation between the NDP, LPC, and GPC, probably an outright merger of the two or three of the parties. I think this election is going to be a watershed election if the CPC maintains their grip on power with aproximately only 43% of the electorate even considering voting for them. Hopefully Mulcair and the NDP will form a government on October 19th but if Harper forms another phony FPTP majority there will be a lot displeasure on the centre-left in Canada that will not be easily placated by the NDP, LPC, and GPC.
Sat, 2015-05-02 05:15
#55
The thing about 2011 was that it was big shock to the country's identity. Even with the polls, many people couldn't believe that the Liberals could come out so poorly. They just didn't know how to react. This time, everyone is pretty used to the idea. If the Libs start tanking again ( which is looking more likely with every passing day) then people won't throw good votes after bad. They'll do the rational thing and switch to the NDP. This election, there is no middle ground for the Libs. If they can't stay competitive with the Cons, they will collapse completely. Much worse than last time. They will be wiped off the map and the NDP will take government.
If the LPC tanks again won't some portion of their support also migrate to the CPC and allow the CPC to retain a majority? Recently I've looked at UBC's election forecaster. It seems to show that if the LPC fairs worse than they did in the last election, the NDP will have to take away half of the LPC's support from the last election to be able to form a government and prevent another CPC majority. That scenerio would leave the LPC with only 10% of the vote. Unfortunately, I think it's extremely unlikely they are going to go that low.
Sat, 2015-05-02 11:01
#56
I would be cautious about polling results from some pollsters that don't necessarily have a good track record.
Herding:
Herding is a title given to a process that was created by a professional aggregator in the USA called Nate Silver who worked for years for the New York Times. And by-the-way, I am not aware of any aggregator in Canada that uses a process to prevent herding. What the process to prevent herding does is take the average of the last 3 weeks of polling and uses that figure divided by the number of polls. The reason being is that some pollsters unfortunately may overinflate or underinflate the strength of certain political parties, and then just before the election, that same pollster will publish polls which are more accurate, so as to appear close to accurate. Legitimate pollstsers have nothing to worry about when the process to prevent herding process is used.
A little analysis to prevent "herding" in our last federal election of 2011:
Actual Results: Cons - 40%, NDP - 31%, Libs - 19%
Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Total Difference
Nanos Research / 39% / 1% / 23% / 8% / 27% / 8% / 17%
Underestimated the NDP by 8%, the Conservatives by 1%, and overestimated the Liberals by 8%.
Compas / 46% / 6% / 21% / 2% / 21% / 10% / 18%
Overestimated Conservatives by 6%, underestimated NDP by 10%, and overestimated Liberals by 2%
EKOS / 35% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 26% / 5% / 15%
Underestimaed Conservatives by 5%, underestimated NDP by 5%, overestimated Liberals by 5%
Innovative Research / 39% / 1% / 27% / 8% / 19% / 12% / 21%
Underestimated Conservatives by 1%, overestimated Liberals by 8%, and underestimated NDP by 12%
Forum Research / 35% / 5% / 22% / 3% / 29% / 2% / 10%
Underestimated Conservatives & NDP, and overestimated Liberals
All of the above pollsters underestimated the NDP, all but one underestimated the Conservatives, and all overestimated the Liberals
Addition to initial post:
Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Total Difference
Abacus / 37% / 3% / 24% / 5% / 26% / 5% / 13%
Angus Reid / 36% / 4% / 22% / 3% / 29% / 2% / 9%
Environics / 39% / 1% / 23% / 4% / 24% / 7% / 12%
Harris Decima / 36% / 4% / 21% / 2% / 30% / 1% / 7%
Leger Marketing / 37% / 3% / 24% / 5% / 27% / 4% / 12%
Silver's website is: www.fivethirtyeight.com
Sat, 2015-05-02 11:04
#57
Here are the polling results, using the process to eliminate herding, for the last election from best performance to worst performance in descending order, and the most accurate pollster is Ipsos Reid.
Will there be that much difference between the actual results and the pollsters in the upcoming 2015 election as there was in 2011, our last election?
Herding:
Herding is a title given to a process that was created by a professional aggregator in the USA called Nate Silver who worked for years for the New York Times. And by-the-way, I am not aware of any aggregator in Canada that uses a process to prevent herding. What the process to prevent herding does is take the average of the last 3 weeks of polling and uses that figure divided by the numberpolls. The reason being is that some pollsters unfortunately may overinflate or underinflate the strength of certain political parties, and then just before the election, that same pollster will publish polls which are more accurate, so as to appear close to accurate. Legitimate pollstsers have nothing to worry about when the process to prevent herding process is used.
Federal Election 2011 Actual Results: Cons - 40%, NDP - 31%, Libs - 19%
Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Total Difference
Ipsos Reid / 41% / 1% / 28% / 3% / 20% / 1% / 5%
Harris Decima / 36% / 4% / 30% / 1% / 21% / 2% / 7%
Angus Reid / 36% / 4% / 29% / 2% / 22% / 3% / 9%
Forum Research / 35% / 5% / 29% / 2% / 22% / 3% / 10%
Environics / 39% / 1% / 24% / 7% / 23% / 4% / 12%
Leger Marketing / 37% / 3% / 27% / 4% / 24% / 5% / 12%
Abacus / 37% / 3% / 26% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 13%
EKOS / 35% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 26% / 5% / 15%
Nanos Research / 39% / 1% / 23% / 8% / 27% / 8% / 17%
Compas / 46% / 6% / 21% / 10% / 21% / 2% / 18%
Innovative Research / 39% / 1% / 19% / 12% / 27% / 8% / 21%
Silver's website is: www.fivethirtyeight.com
Sat, 2015-05-02 11:07
#58
The NDP received 31% of the votes on May 2, 2011.
Here are some polling results for the NDP just before the last election was called, compared to what votes they actually received, and the difference:
Date - Pollster - Mar '11 - Actual Election
Mar 24 '11 - AR - 19% - 31%, Up 12%
Mar 24 24 '11 - LM - 19% - 31%, Up 12%
Mar 24 '11 - EKOS - 14% - 31%, Up 17%
Mar 23 '11 - IR - 16% - 31%, Up 15%
Mar 20 '11 - HD - 17% - 31%, Up 14%
Mar 16 ' 11 - EKOS - 16% - 31%, Up 15%
Mar 15 '11 - NR - 20% - 31%, Up 11%
What's significant is not one single solitary pollster had an inkling what was coming, so when people start basing seat projections on polls that may well be 10 months away from a election, it is based entirely on voodoo science. Nothing more, and nothing less. Anyone posting seat projections right now is just trying to manipulate the voters.
Sat, 2015-05-02 11:09
#59
Applying the process to prevent herding in the Oct 14, 2008 Election
Election Results: C - 38%, N - 18%, L - 26%, B - 10%
Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Bloc / Dif / Total Difference
Angus Reid / 38% / 0% / 26% / 0% / 19% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 1% - Phenomenal Results
Ipsos Reid / 37% 1% / 18% / 0% / 25% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 2% - Amazin' results as well
Strategic Counsel / 36% / 2% / 27% / 1% / 19% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 4% - Not bad!
Nanos / 36% / 2% / 20% / 2% / 26% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 5%
Segma / 35% / 1% / 23% / 3% / 21% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 6%
Harris Decima / 35% / 3% / 19% / 1% / 26% / 1% / 9% / 1% / 6%
EKOS / 35% / 3% / 19% / 1% / 24% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 6%
We can now put to bed the nonsense that Ipsos Reid is not an accurate pollster, eh!
*Environics did publish a poll outside the 3 week analysis period used to prevent herding on Sep 2, 2008 as follows:
Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Bloc / Dif / Total Difference
Environics / 38% / 2% / 19% / 1% / 28% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 5%
Sat, 2015-05-02 11:10
#60
So now let's combine the track records using the anaysis to prevent herding for the 2008 and 2011 federal elections*
Pollster / Total Difference
Ipsos Reid / 4% - Most Accurate Pollster
Angus Reid / 5% - Close Second
Harris Decima / 6% - Not bad!
EKOS / 11%
Nanos / 11%
*The Bloc results have been excluded from the stats
Sat, 2015-05-02 11:33
#61
http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/alberta-election-polls/ of course when we think back on the polls for the last B.C provincials when may get disappointed.Thanks MegB
EKOS latest poll
Cons - 32%
NDP - 24%, only 4% behind the Liberals
Libs - 28%
Sat, 2015-05-02 13:24
#62
The NDP might very well have formed the government in 2011, had the campaign continued for a week or two more. I am convinced of it. Certainly the Tories would not have a majority.
It is unclear that they would have won a majority without cheating. I suspect not.
Robo calls was only part of it -- also overspending and who knows what else.
Sat, 2015-05-02 13:30
#63
The thing about 2011 was that it was big shock to the country's identity. Even with the polls, many people couldn't believe that the Liberals could come out so poorly. They just didn't know how to react. This time, everyone is pretty used to the idea. If the Libs start tanking again ( which is looking more likely with every passing day) then people won't throw good votes after bad. They'll do the rational thing and switch to the NDP. This election, there is no middle ground for the Libs. If they can't stay competitive with the Cons, they will collapse completely. Much worse than last time. They will be wiped off the map and the NDP will take government.
If the LPC tanks again won't some portion of their support also migrate to the CPC and allow the CPC to retain a majority? Recently I've looked at UBC's election forecaster. It seems to show that if the LPC fairs worse than they did in the last election, the NDP will have to take away half of the LPC's support from the last election to be able to form a government and prevent another CPC majority. That scenerio would leave the LPC with only 10% of the vote. Unfortunately, I think it's extremely unlikely they are going to go that low.
I think the idea that more Liberal support could go to the Cons is unlikely the Conservatives took the max int he last election and I think they will lose some of it now. I see no easy path to a majority for Harper this fall even a bad campaign by Trudeau. While it is possible Harper could get a majority I think it is unlikely even with a further erosion of Liebral support which I also think is unlikely.
More likely the worst the Liberals will do is slightly better than 2011 wheras the Cons will get less than in 2011.
Sat, 2015-05-02 13:30
#64
Federal Election 2011 Actual Results: Cons - 40%, NDP - 31%, Libs - 19%
Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Total Difference
Ipsos Reid / 41% / 1% / 28% / 3% / 20% / 1% / 5% (2, both in final 2 weeks)
Harris Decima / 36% / 4% / 30% / 1% / 21% / 2% / 7% (2)
Angus Reid / 36% / 4% / 29% / 2% / 22% / 3% / 9% (3, 2 in the final week)
Forum Research / 35% / 5% / 29% / 2% / 22% / 3% / 10% (5, 3 in the final week)
Environics / 39% / 1% / 24% / 7% / 23% / 4% / 12% (2, last day polled April 21)
Leger Marketing / 37% / 3% / 27% / 4% / 24% / 5% / 12% (2)
Abacus / 37% / 3% / 26% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 13% (2)
EKOS / 35% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 26% / 5% / 15% (11)
Nanos Research / 39% / 1% / 23% / 8% / 27% / 8% / 17% (20)
Compas / 46% / 6% / 21% / 10% / 21% / 2% / 18% (2)
Innovative Research / 39% / 1% / 19% / 12% / 27% / 8% / 21% (3, last day polled April 25)
Silver's website is: www.fivethirtyeight.com
Number of polls each did in the last 3 weeks in brackets
Sat, 2015-05-02 13:36
#65
Silver brilliantly devised an approach to prevent "herding" probably to offset pollsters like Rasmussum from gaming the system.
What some pollsters were, and still are doing, is show more support than actually exists for their favourite political party in the early stages of the campaign, but just before the election itself they reign their ficticious polls back in, to try and appear credible. It's just a con job to try and manipulate the voters
What is that expression: "The apple does not fall far from the tree"
If pollsters are trying to game the system in the USA we can rest assured they are doing the same thing thing in Canada.
Sat, 2015-05-02 13:37
#66
The thing about 2011 was that it was big shock to the country's identity. Even with the polls, many people couldn't believe that the Liberals could come out so poorly. They just didn't know how to react. This time, everyone is pretty used to the idea. If the Libs start tanking again ( which is looking more likely with every passing day) then people won't throw good votes after bad. They'll do the rational thing and switch to the NDP. This election, there is no middle ground for the Libs. If they can't stay competitive with the Cons, they will collapse completely. Much worse than last time. They will be wiped off the map and the NDP will take government.
If the LPC tanks again won't some portion of their support also migrate to the CPC and allow the CPC to retain a majority? Recently I've looked at UBC's election forecaster. It seems to show that if the LPC fairs worse than they did in the last election, the NDP will have to take away half of the LPC's support from the last election to be able to form a government and prevent another CPC majority. That scenerio would leave the LPC with only 10% of the vote. Unfortunately, I think it's extremely unlikely they are going to go that low.
The 2011 Canadian Election Study had Liberal 2nd choices as 76% NDP 24% Conservative in ROC (denying them the option of the Greens as 2nd choice).
http://johnbsantos.com/tag/canadian-election-study/
Sat, 2015-05-02 13:39
#67
Silver brilliantly devised an approach to prevent "herding" probably to offset pollsters like Rasmussum from gaming the system.
What some pollsters were, and still are doing, is show more support than actually exists for their favourite political party in the early stages of the campaign, but just before the election itself they reign their ficticious polls back in, to try and appear credible. It's just a con job to try and manipulate the voters
What is that expression: "The apple does not fall far from the tree"
If pollsters are trying to game the system in the USA we can rest assured they are doing the same thing thing in Canada.
But the point I'm trying to make is the more polls you do closer to election day, the more "accurate" you will be according to "herding".
Sat, 2015-05-02 13:51
#68
In 2011 the NDP surged to nearly 31% of the vote, and the Liberals crashed below 19% and yet the NDP still finished a very distant 2nd to Stephen Harper.
Here it is 4 years later. Why is the NDP once again claiming that it can beat the Conservatives when there is no evidence to suggest that?
The "evidence" seems to be on full display in Alberta right now! 
The NDP passed the Liberals in 2011 and had their shot at taking on the Conservatives. And they failed. Big time.
The Liberals had their shot at taking on the Conservatives in 2006 and 2008. And they failed. Big time.
What a ridiculously stupid argument!
Sat, 2015-05-02 13:58
#69
It doesn't matter the number of polls. what matters is whether one or one hundred and one polls are being gamed.
Sat, 2015-05-02 14:10
#70
I wish Environics and Angus Reid would publish federal polls soon.
Sat, 2015-05-02 17:49
#71
Federal Election 2011 Actual Results: Cons - 40%, NDP - 31%, Libs - 19%
Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Total Difference
Nanos Research / 39% / 1% / 23% / 8% / 27% / 8% / 17%
Actually, Nanos` final weekend, 2-day rolling average was Con - 37.1%, NDP - 31.6%, Lib - 20.5%. And their last day (Sunday results with a 702 sample size) were even closer to the mark. Bang on in my books.
Again, over the course of a campaign, shifts happen and undecideds break on final weekend.
Nanos is a CATI pollster and the one upon which I place most weight upon personally.
Mon, 2015-05-04 11:53
#72
Polls put spring in Harper’s step
http://thechronicleherald.ca/opinion/1283942-leger-polls-put-spring-in-h...
Mon, 2015-05-04 15:30
#73
Éric Grenier @308dotcom View translation
New Léger #cdnpoli poll: LPC 34%, CPC 33%, NDP 21%. Full details: http://leger360.com/en-CA/blogue.asp?
Mon, 2015-05-04 15:45
#74
Prediction, things are about to change.
Mon, 2015-05-04 16:03
#75
Prediction. That prediction will always be right no matter what happens.
Mon, 2015-05-04 16:15
#76
Arthur Cramer
Another prediction. It doens't matter what the polls say. The LPC shills on this board will always rub our noses in any poll that comes out and tell us why are supporting Harper if we don't vote NDP. And, they'll keep up at it, untill Hell freezes over! Good for you Josh! Hope you're having a great day. Better be areful about grave dancing though. Just a thought, "buddy".
Mon, 2015-05-04 17:13
#77
Prediction. That prediction will always be right no matter what happens.
Good point. I predict the Liberal numbers will rise.
Mon, 2015-05-04 17:21
#78
Another prediction. It doens't matter what the polls say. The LPC shills on this board will always rub our noses in any poll that comes out and tell us why are supporting Harper if we don't vote NDP. And, they'll keep up at it, untill Hell freezes over! Good for you Josh! Hope you're having a great day. Better be areful about grave dancing though. Just a thought, "buddy".
I feel the "nose rubbing" as been on the other side but I don't mind.
tell us why are supporting Harper if we don't vote NDP
I think you meant "if we don't vote Liberal" but I have yet to see anyone suggest what you are claiming.
Wed, 2015-05-06 20:03
#79
So with the NDP having energized its brand last nite in Alberta,
What kind of an effect will this have on national polling?
We have seen the Liberals losing momentum over the past few months and today Nanos has more bad news for the Trudeau Liberals
My hunch is that the NDP will continue moving in on the second place Liberals and may well surpass them sooner rather than later as it is obvious now to Canadian voters that the NDP can win anywhere in Canada and that includes Ontario
Wed, 2015-05-06 20:10
#80
Where did you hear nanos say there is bad news for Trudeau?
Wed, 2015-05-06 20:12
#81
montrealer58
Prediction, things are about to change.
They certainly did in Alberta, and I am sure things will continue to change in this positive manner as the months go by. Intelligent progressive Liberals can see that even in scary Conservative Alberta, when they join with the NDP they can win.
Wed, 2015-05-06 20:20
#82
The AB result was very good for the federal NDP in so many ways it would be ludicrous to argue anything else.
Wed, 2015-05-13 08:07
#83
federal NDP ahead in BC
NDP 35
Con 29
Lib 25
Gr 10
Wed, 2015-05-13 08:18
#84
....and provincial NDP is suddenly ahead in Ontario with Liberals tanking ( a Forum poll unfortunately)
NDP 36
Con 33
Lib 24!!!!!!
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/ON%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2005%2012)%20Forum%20Research.pdf
Maybe something is happening out there. it will be interesting to see next round of national polls. I think EKOS is now releasing weekly poll every Thurs or Friday.
Wed, 2015-05-13 08:22
#85
As for Ontario, new PC leader, the Alberta effect, and Hydro helped tank the Liberal number.
Wed, 2015-05-13 08:32
#86
This is defcon 1 for the Liberal Party, red alert timee.
Wed, 2015-05-13 08:36
#87
As for Ontario, new PC leader, the Alberta effect, and Hydro helped tank the Liberal number.
Education as well, with both labour unrest and teachers strikes, along with the new sex ed curriculum. I support the new sex ed curriculum, but otherwise, yes, the Liberals are bad news and I'm glad to see them sinking in the polls.
Wed, 2015-05-13 08:39
#88
federal NDP ahead in BC
NDP 35
Con 29
Lib 25
Gr 10
That's great. If the NDP can gain federally in Ontario, then they will be the main threat to the Conservatives in the next election.
Wed, 2015-05-13 18:23
#89
Federal NDP rises, Conservatives drop in latest B.C. poll
Mulcair tops party leaders with 52-per-cent approval rating
May 13, 2015
The NDP would win the popular vote in B.C. if a federal election were held tomorrow, according to a new poll, but the party will need to learn from Rachel Notley’s example in Alberta if it wants to turn the province orange.
A new survey from Insights West found that 35 per cent of decided voters in this province would cast their vote for the New Democrats, compared to 29 per cent for the Conservatives and 25 per cent for the Liberals.
NDP leader Thomas Mulcair fared particularly well in the poll, earning a 52-per-cent approval rating, edging out Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s 46 per cent and trouncing Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s 35 per cent.
---
http://www.theprovince.com/news/Federal+rises+Conservatives+drop+latest+...
Wed, 2015-05-13 22:23
#90
Glen McGregor just posted this:
A big pollster has some stunning national horserace numbers out soon. Preliminary results have NDP out in front.
https://twitter.com/glen_mcgregor/status/598672200951009280
Wed, 2015-05-13 22:50
#91
I suspect the poll posted by Glen McGregor tonight above is a preview of tomorrow's EKOS poll.
The chart & colour layout look like the type of graphics EKOS uses each week.
Wed, 2015-05-13 22:54
#92
Well Insights West has the NDP leading in BC
So does anyone have any ideas which pollster it is
Angus Reid perhaps as they have not released a national poll for some time
NDP - 29%
Cons - 29%
Libs - 28%
Well if these results turn out to be accurate I hope the NDP are ready for a non-stop campaign of attack ads by the Cons
Wed, 2015-05-13 23:00
#93
Its pretty obvious that this is Ekos...looks like their style of charts. We all know polls can be wrong and can change etc... but they can also be a self-fulfilling prophecy that affects how the media covers the parties, candidate recruitment, fundraising, morale etc...Imagine if the NDP had been tied in the mid 30s with the Tories for the last three years and the Liberals had been way back in the teens - can you imaginbe how different the media coverage would be etc...
So, anyw way you slice it - a few polls showing the NDP ahead of the Liberals is HUGE - let's face it, the entire Liberal message for the last three years has been - you must vote for us because only we can beat Harper...what happens when that clearly isn't true anymore?
Wed, 2015-05-13 23:08
#94
I suspect the poll posted by Glen McGregor tonight above is a preview of tomorrow's EKOS poll.
The chart & colour layout look like the type of graphics EKOS uses each week.
Yes while all within margin -- this is a good indication that Canadians want change and Trudeau's support for C-51 may be hurting him.
There is a momentum thing as well. There is a chunk of voters -- at least 10% that will swing between the NDP and Liberals to the one that has the most momentum and stands the best chance of beating Harper. I can't imagine they have all moved to the NDP yet so if there is another 5% there they might jump from the Liberals to the NDP along with some Greens. It is not impossible to see the NDP hit the high 30s with a lead on Harper of about 10%.
Even in this scenario I still expect a small recovery from the Liberals in this election -- however if this is only a small recovery the following election would likely produce a significant decline -- unless the NDP made huge errors as a government.
For the NDP to supplant the Liberals there are three steps: The first to become opposition and be accepted as a viable alternative. (this has been done). The second is for the party to become a government. The third requires that government to do well enough that it earn a second mandate and not allow the Liberals an opening. If they do this the Liberals would become a small party for at least a generation. Any backtracking on this means the NDP goes back to step one. That said there is the Alberta experience where they simply skipped step one.
Wed, 2015-05-13 23:10
#95
Well he did say preliminary results
And they said Harper was having a bad week last week.
Wed, 2015-05-13 23:17
#96
I will remind people of what I predicted in 2011: I said that I did not expect incremental change. Politics almost never works that way. The ground gets prepared over time but the change itself comes quickly.
I did predict the NDP sweep in Quebec happening like that. What I did not predict was when. Even when that election started, I did not know we would see it just yet but the way we did see it is what I thought would happen. This is what I said when people predicted 10-20 seats-- at the time I said either the NDP crosses 40 or they won't cross 5 (or numbers to that effect).
Alberta is an example of the same thing.
The reason is very simple-- the same dynamic that moves 10% of the vote usually moves a lot more.
And the present circumstances are interesting -- the Conservatives are damaged more than they were in 2011 and are not in good shape to pick up any losses from the Liberals. The Liberals misread the dynamic and thought that if they were more like the Conservatives they could get votes from them. But the people who want to vote Harper out want something unlike the Conservatives.
Wed, 2015-05-13 23:42
#97
Way to call it.
I could see the makings of a breakthrough in a Quebec in the early days of the 2011 election, between Mulcair's by-election win, Jack's appearance on Tout le Monde, and some early polling upticks. But I thought a breakthrough would be a beachhead in Montreal or something. Never thought it would lead to a supermajority of seats.
Even in Alberta, I could see the makings of that uptick. Notley's personal popularity, some good numbers in Edmonton. But I always thought the "we'll have another orange wave in the prairies" as wishful thinking. Lightning doesn't strike twice. A few more NDP seats in Alberta. But a majority?!
I'm thinking Sean's theory is right. The seeds might get planted over time, but the change itself comes quickly. I'm just used to Ontario where the population is so fragmented that it seems like a wave is almost impossible, and every additional seat has been hard faught. Ontario really is like 10 different regions. But then again, so is Quebec...
Wed, 2015-05-13 23:52
#98
Well he did say preliminary results And they said Harper was having a bad week last week.
Yes, but it seems to have stuck to him.
Thu, 2015-05-14 00:15
#99
Well if those are the final results and it is EKOS
Party / May 5 / May 14 / Change
Cons / 30% / 30% / Unchanged
NDP / 24% / 30% / Up 6%
Libs / 30% / 29% / Down 1%
Mulcair owes Notley big time.
Thu, 2015-05-14 01:45
#100
Well he did say preliminary results And they said Harper was having a bad week last week.Yes, but it seems to have stuck to him.
That remains to be seen, unfortunately.
For whatever reason, Harper has been Teflon over the past decade and has been able to get away with massive amounts of corruption, scandal and changes to Canada without suffering any consequences.
There's a hardcore group of voters who vote CPC even when they have been convicted of breaking Elections Laws, paying off Senators under the table, pushing Canada to the far-right on foreign policy and engaging in a record amount of smear campaigns.
It's very tough to drop Harper below 30%. Polls often tend to underestimate CPC support as well since they have a turnout advantage, plus they cheat to get additional votes! (Eg. Guelph, Labrador, Peterborough, etc.)
So it will be interesting to see if the CPC can be kept down this time. It does look like Harper is more worried than usual this year since for the first time ever he is refusing to participate in National debates on the major t.v. networks. He always did so before in 04, 06, 08 & 11. So perhaps he is afraid of something in 2015.
Thu, 2015-05-14 02:21
#101
It's very tough to drop Harper below 30%. Polls often tend to underestimate CPC support as well since they have a turnout advantage, plus they cheat to get additional votes! (Eg. Guelph, Labrador, Peterborough, etc.)
Ekos underestimated the Conservatives by 5.7% in 2011. They also underestimated the combined PC-Wildrose vote by 5.5% last week.