Trudeau Leadership Fail: Liberal supporters need to reassess their options

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Rokossovsky

Debater wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Well Liberals gave Trudeau's leadership a good kick at the can but there is no longer any more time if we are serious about preventing another Harper majority..

Conservatives are now 8% ahead of the Liberals who are closely followed by the NDP who are only 4% behind them.

Federal Liberal voters need to pay serious attention to what is going on in Alberta. The collapsing Liberal vote which is shifting to the NDP is helping to rid Alberta of a 43 year right-wing political dynasty.

Isn't it time for Canadians to rid themselves of Harper as well?

 

I agree with you 100%.

Justin Trudeau is done.  The Federal Liberals are finished.

Everyone should vote NDP this year.

I guess I will go back to bed now.

jas

Debater wrote:

Btw, I cancelled my Liberal membership after the Bill C-51 vote and quit my riding executive.  I also sent an e-mail to Gerald Butts telling him that he & Justin Trudeau have lost quite a few progressive voters this Spring, and that Trudeau's stature among progressives has been diminished while Mulcair's has been strengthened.

Wow, Debater. That must have been hard to do.

I truly wonder what is going on with Trudeau. If this is all him, he's got a hard lesson to learn. If not, he's got terrible advisers right now.

Bill C-51: How Trudeau's support of the anti-terror bill could help the NDP

Rokossovsky

Good decisions Debater.

I simply can not understand why they didn't simply abstain once their amendments were rejected. I didn't think they were any good, as amendments, but at least that would make sense "optically" speaking, distinguishing themselves from both other parties.

It makes no sense. Lost, is pretty much the best discription.

Unionist

Pierre C yr wrote:

There are good liberals debater. Irwin Cotler comes to mind.

Great pick, Pierre. "Stand by Israel, right or wrong!!!!!" Very reminiscent of another ex-Liberal who represents my riding in Parliament.

Now that Justin Trudeau has edged ever closer to Harper's camp, will we be vigilant to ensure that the NDP doesn't move to fill in the gap, please?

Because when Trudeau promises to tax the rich more, and Mulcair promises that he won't, it becomes very difficult to distinguish anyone from anyone, whether in domestic or foreign policy.

British Labour found that out yesterday. The Alberta NDP will find that out if they take their electors for granted and spend the rest of their term soothing the hurt feelings of the oil barons.

Hope lessons are being learned.

 

Rokossovsky

I think you have trouble distinguishing "anyone from anyone" because it's all about you.

Hunky_Monkey

clambake wrote:

This really bothered me when he said it a couple of years ago. Now it has a chance of backfiring. Committing to a more progressive income tax mechanism, coupled with national childcare, raising minimum wage and increasing corporate taxes would have been an excellent, consistent platform for the party to run on. 

Talking about Mulcair, clambake?  

He did rule out personal income taxes but has been clear he'll raise corporate income taxes.

Brachina

 Weird thing, according to the NDP and Mclean's Magazine, Trudeau's tax plan actually decreases taxes on the rich, I'd link to it, but I can't. Alots of graphs and stuff to back this up. I don't know how exactly Trudeau managed to pull this off.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Trudeau thinks that by going right on security and supposedly left on the money he can attract Conservatives? That is bass ackwards. To attract the Conservative, you need to be left on the surveillance state and right on the money. The other thing you do to attract Conservatives is not say things like "the budget will balance itself".

It's kind of sad. Between cigarette Butts, John McCallum was probably trying to teach Trudeau economics. "As you can see, with economic growth, this line crosses this one and the budget more or less balances itself". With no Monte Carlo at all ("what might happen if I say this?") Trudeau blurts it out, showing lack of political and economic skills.

 

Malcontent

Liberal Tory same old story I guess.  (even though the Harper cons are not Tories)

Trudeau just put one of the final nails into the so called 'Liberal' Party.

Really though since the Libs deposed of Dion they have pretty well backed the cons on everything.  Sure Trudeau says he will legalise pot but I would rather have the pot laws remain the same (since it is all but legal out here to begin with, 92 pot shops just in Vancouver proper alone, police do not enforce pot laws for years and the city and even province support the city to regulate it.) and dump c-51.

The other issue Libs different from the cons on is abortion however Trudeau in Harper-esque  fashion says MP's and candidates have to be pro choice.  I am pro choice myself but Trudeau is more of the same where his MP's are suppose to be like good sheep and vote his way.  I want MP's to think for themselves and vote accordingly to what their constituents want on any and all issues.

Either Trudeau is in over his head, he is getting bad advice from the backroom or Harper has something on him.

Like I said before do not be surprised if Trudeau is back teaching this time next year or doing something else.  I think the Liberal party is done. If a Trudeau can not save them, no one can.  The Libs will fade away over next couple elections, the NDP will be the new big two party and they will form government in 2019.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

The Cons and Liberals do not seem to be able to break though 30%, despite all the stops they have been pulling out. The big question now is what are Liberal voters going to do? Are they going to back Harper or the NDP? It is up to each one, no matter what Harper, Trudeau, and Mulcair say.

Orange Crush has moved beyond the last federal election.

If a lot of Liberal votes go NDP, the Greens may actually spoil the Tory vote, so I think the jury should be out about fear of the Greens.

mark_alfred

Brachina wrote:

 Weird thing, according to the NDP and Mclean's Magazine, Trudeau's tax plan actually decreases taxes on the rich, I'd link to it, but I can't. Alots of graphs and stuff to back this up. I don't know how exactly Trudeau managed to pull this off.

Here are links for the two articles you mentioned above:

REALITY CHECK: Two-thirds of Canadians not invited to Justin Trudeau’s tax cut buffet

How the rich would benefit from the Liberals’ middle class tax cut -- The NDP is right. Higher-income earners will benefit more from the Liberal tax cut plan than the middle class

Basically what's being said is that those earning between $89,402.00 and $200,000.00 see the biggest reduction in their taxes, because they see no rise in their taxes and they get the entire cut for the portion of their income that is between $44,401 and $89,401 (IE, they get a cut for the entire bracket).  So, someone earning above $89,402 but less than $200,000.00 gets a tax cut of 1.5% on $45,001.00 of their income (so, they get a cut of $675.02).  The $45,001.00 is the size of the bracket -- basically $89,401 - $44,400.  By contrast, someone earning $50,000.00 per year only gets a cut for the portion of their income that falls within the bracket, which is $5,599.00 ($50,000 - $44,401 = $5,599.00).  So, for someone earning $50,000.00, they see a 1.5% cut on $5,599.00, which equals $83.98 (which is far less of a cut than $675.02).  Those earning less than $44,401.00 don't see any cut.  Someone who earns $44,402.00 sees a cut of $0.02 (two cents).

The Macleans article gives a slightly different number then the $675.02 that I figured it to be (in their example, it was a $659.00 cut for those in the upper brackets (but not the top bracket)).  The guy there was using the current bracket numbers ($43,953 to $87,907), whereas I was using the proposed updated ones of Trudeau.  The same principle applies regardless.  It's a far bigger benefit for those in the higher brackets (excluding Trudeau's newly proposed top bracket) than it is for those regular folk near or below $50,000.00. It's a neglible benefit for these people.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Ha ha talking in detail about Liberal plans which will never be introduced, even if the Liberals win.

mark_alfred

Their tax cut plan is a bad plan that mainly benefits the well-off.  I'm sure they would introduce it if they were elected.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

That would be under the category of "keeping Liberal promises" which just doesn't happen in Canada.

mark_alfred

They vowed to support Bill C-51 and did.  Now they've vowed to make a tax cut that primarily benefits the well off.  The Liberals have a history of following through on such vows.  But, when it comes to things that actually will benefit the poor and working people, yes, I do agree that often when Liberals have made such promises, that they don't follow through.

thorin_bane

I was shocked that Evan soloman had Trudeau squirming alot about it. They are finally asking the crown prince for some specififcs. All he could muster was it was better than the NDP plan and was fully costed, but did not point to wear those numbers would be. I made a mention about it helping anyone above 45,000 during the week. Regardless even the wealthy get that same tax break on that bracket.

If he wanted to do it right he would have raised the minimum by 5,000  lowered the less lowest bracket to 10% and closed the capital gains and TFSA accounts entirely.  All that will happen is the wealthy will shift more money into the forms of bonuses. Look that ceo only earns 200,000...and 10,000,000 in capital gains, which you know trudeau will likely lower it to 25% instead of 50% it is right now, much like pauly pockets did.

nicky

Debater is not alone:

 

http://thinkpol.ca/2015/05/09/supporters-publicly-abandoning-liberal-par...

 

The comments are particularly interesting both in the vociferousness and near unanimity.

terrytowel

I think your comments were absolutely wonderful Debater

Sean in Ottawa

Just catching up as I have had a few very heavy work days without time to come and catch up.

Wow, Debater, I am impressed.

On a matter of principle -- All of us should make the same promise that we do the same -- no matter the party.

The only way they learn to behave is when we do -- when we let them know that we all have principles and that we will not sacrifice those for political loyalty.

And we should all also promise to notice at least when each party does something worthy. I am not friendly to the Liberal party but I do try to acknolwedge those things I agree with (for example the specific committment to match fundingfor health and education for Aboriginal peoples). This does not make me less of a supporter of one party to notice when another gets it right. As well we must notice when a party we support gets it wrong and know that our support is never unconditional.

I do expect that there will be others to change their minds about the Liberals.

I have found it frustrating to hear those who saw the NDP "only" triple their seats and almost double their popular vote in one election and say that this is evidence the NDP cannot do even more. The NDP's trajectory in general elections suggests the opposite -- that it can. This is not a gurantee that it will but there should be no question that it is a contender.

TiradeFaction

Liberal senators to vote against anti-terror bill Trudeau supported

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberal-senators-to-vote-ag...

Debater

Mulcair or Trudeau: One must offer real change

Lawrence Martin

Tuesday, May. 19 2015

Excerpt:

With their policy approach, the Liberals are gambling that Canadians want a more centrist, as opposed to leftish, alternative. It’s what worked for them in the past. But with the New Democrats’ breakthrough in the 2011 election, and with what was seen in the recent Alberta provincial election, it may not work now.

Given the dramatic Conservative ascent of the last decade, voters might be more inclined to opt for the party offering the big correction as opposed to a more middling remake.

---

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/mulcair-or-trudeau-one-must-...

NorthReport

Another Liberal freak-out over Trudeau's failure of leadership.

Time for the Liberals to face some hard truths about Justin Trudeau

And so, for the Liberals, the first hard truth to face is that it’s not working — at least not well enough. After a fairly brutal winter, the spring was supposed to be better. Duffy was back, like a bad rash across the government’s inseam. The Conservative budget was a long-delayed wet firecracker. Most of all, a new Liberal tax plan focused on fairness was supposed to land loudly – muting those who complain that Trudeau is light on ideas and weak on the economy. It was reasonable to expect that raising taxes for the rich and cutting them for the rest would generate a big echo. But oddly enough, it hasn’t.

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/reid-time-for-the-liberals-t...

NorthReport

Bill C-51: How Trudeau's support of the anti-terror bill could help the NDP

The NDP's big Alberta win shows voter loyalty not what it used to be

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bill-c-51-how-trudeau-s-support-of-the-ant...

NorthReport
montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Another Liberal freak-out over Trudeau's failure of leadership.

Time for the Liberals to face some hard truths about Justin Trudeau

And so, for the Liberals, the first hard truth to face is that it’s not working — at least not well enough. After a fairly brutal winter, the spring was supposed to be better. Duffy was back, like a bad rash across the government’s inseam. The Conservative budget was a long-delayed wet firecracker. Most of all, a new Liberal tax plan focused on fairness was supposed to land loudly – muting those who complain that Trudeau is light on ideas and weak on the economy. It was reasonable to expect that raising taxes for the rich and cutting them for the rest would generate a big echo. But oddly enough, it hasn’t.

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/reid-time-for-the-liberals-t...

 

WARNING: This article is by Scott Reid, whose political judgement has never been known to be abundant. I think that even if I were a Liberal I should not take his advice.

Sean in Ottawa

All this supports my contention that if Trudeau came back into a House as the third party he would not hav the strength -- even if he wanted to -- to prevent his MPs from joining an NDP-led government.

The NDP do not need a majority to govern.

If Trudeau's "magic dust" does not deliver a majority or strong plurality to the Liberals, he cannot prevent his MPs from going into a government to replace Harper if the option were there. Trudeau carries the hopes of his party but if dashed he will not have much control and certainly not enough to demand his MPs take a pay cut and sit in opposition rather than be part of removing Harper and getting in government.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

The Conservatives have split at their base, and possibly into more than 2 fragments. I dont think "Reform/PC" makes much sense now, as anyone who would have been an old-style Tory "PC" is either in the Liberals, NDP, or Greens, and has been for a long time now. I don't think any of them see any hope in the Conservative Party, which to many is an abomination from the start.

There are reforming Christian conservatives who are becoming more liberal, and they are getting turned off by the intolerance of their Catholic and evangelical churches. If they go Anglican or United, that is better for the NDP than the Liberals.

There are the business types like Preston Manning who want Canada to go to a carbon tax. This is anathema to the Tory Party line.

There are libertarians who are furious about C-51.

A "Red Tory" is any Conservative who listens to his or her civil servants. The Establishment rump of the Conservative Party will split into a neo-Red and pure Ayn Randism like we see in the new PC leader in Ontario.

Doug Woodard

montrealer58 wrote:

A "Red Tory" is any Conservative who listens to his or her civil servants. The Establishment rump of the Conservative Party will split into a neo-Red and pure Ayn Randism like we see in the new PC leader in Ontario.

I'd say, if and only if we get proportional representation. Until then they will likely grit their teeth and tolerate each other as they do now. And when we do get PR they will have to learn to cooperate with parties holding other views or resign themselves to impotence.

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