Sondage

The polls mean nothing, but I always admire those whose optimism ascribes meaning to them (including our old friend Ethan Cox):

[url=https://ricochet.media/en/356/austerity-kills-liberals-tumble-quebec-sol... kills: Liberals tumble, Quebec Solidaire gain in new poll[/url]

Quote:

What’s perhaps most interesting is that with PQ support almost unchanged, the five point increase in support for QS appears to represent voters stolen from the Liberals. Conventional wisdom suggests that the PQ and QS broadly share one universe of supporters, the Liberals and CAQ another, with some middle ground. For a significant number of supporters of the federalist, right-wing Liberals to swing to the sovereigntist, left-wing QS would require a trigger.

That trigger is austerity. Long-discussed but little understood until recently, the details, and consequences, of Liberal cuts have begun to come into more focus for the population over the past months, partially thanks to a significant mobilization of civil society to oppose them.

God I hope he's right.

It would be great if QS could steal votes from the Liberals. But wouldn't those mostly be progressive anglo and some allo votes? Would that be enough to raise it by 5%?

I convinced some people including the editor of Rover Arts to vote QS: it is important culturally, but certainly didn't make a difference in the riding she lived in (Mercier).

Obviously these changes are fleeting, but it does do my heart good in this endless fucking winter. In 2012 I was demonstrating on this date, and it was so hot I had to take both my denim jacket and my light merino pullover off - I was still too hot with a long-sleeved tee shirt. Out for a walk in the sun anyway...

Chantal Hébert just posted this new LEGER poll this morning.  Looks like Peladeau becoming PQ leader has given his party a bump and they now have a lead over the Couilliard Liberals.

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Péladeau replace le PQ

19 mai 2015

Tout nouveau, tout beau. L’élection de Pierre Karl Péladeau comme chef du Parti québécois (PQ) vendredi a eu comme effet immédiat de doper les appuis à la formation souverainiste, révèle un sondage Léger mené cette fin de semaine pour Le Devoir et Le Journal de Montréal.

Le coup de sonde permet de mesurer le chemin parcouru par la formation souverainiste depuis un an. En mai 2014, Léger avait situé le PQ dans un creux historique : 19 % dans les intentions de vote, troisième parti chez les francophones (23 %), quatrième choix des électeurs de moins de 45 ans…

Or, aux premiers jours de l’ère Péladeau, le PQ semble avoir renversé la vapeur et retrouvé ses repères. Il est ce matin premier dans les intentions de vote, premier chez les francophones, premier également auprès des électeurs de 18 à 54 ans. Dans la foulée, l’appui à la souveraineté est passé de 32 % à 42 %.

Les résultats montrent que le PQ aurait obtenu 34 % si une élection avait eu lieu samedi ou dimanche, alors que les confettis de la soirée de victoire de M. Péladeau étaient à peine ramassés. C’est une hausse de six points par rapport au dernier sondage Léger, réalisé le 11 avril. Les libéraux suivent de près avec 32 %, en baisse de cinq points depuis avril (le taux d’insatisfaction est passé de 61 % à 65 %). La CAQ pointe à 20 %, et Québec solidaire à 10 %.

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More:

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/440396/sondage-leger-peladeau-r...

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Full poll numbers:

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_polqc_mai2015.pdf

It's true that the PQ numbers aren't huge by any means, but what may be more significant is that LEGER shows a 10-point increase on support for sovereignty, from 32% to 42%.

That may not last long-term, but it could change a few calculations in the short-term.

You only have one reason, Alan? I can think of 101! 

I'm glad to see we are up, but these things can change quickly. It would be lovely to outflank the CAQA.

I'm ecstatic to learn that the CPC is down to 12% and that QS is almost even with the CAQA. Great news. I hope it gets better.

I guess it is the French equivalent of Canadian Reform Aliliance Party. But it stuck. Baby caca does that.

alan smithee wrote:

What's maddening is how the media (anglo especially) cover the CAQA. You hear a lot about them and never hear anything about QS. Do they read the polls? Or are they their new right wing Knights in Armour?

I guess the PLQ aren't right wing enough for the Gazette or CTV. Maniacs.

It is similar to the coverage that Sanders gets in relaton to Trump. It is also worth noting that in Alberta prior to the NDP win it was the Wild Rose Party that was the darling of the media and Notely was under reported and laughed at as a serious contender. Who knows the voters might just suprise everyone and QS will win a majority of seats by being the top party in four way races.

I don't see how we could have fallen so quickly. Sounds suspicious.

Right now we are listening to, reading about the Québec cabinet reshuffle... Of course it is just a matter of putting new faces on the Couillard austerity agenda (there is another thread on that under the Québec rubric).

The crap involving party leaders who use tax havens does seem to be hitting the fan; certainly spotlighted on Enquête. These are the people calling for austerity and cuts in much needed government services while they are not paying their part in income and other taxes.

Not about a poll, but this being the cloest ting to a QS thread with recent activity: 

Quote:

Last week Québec Solidaire celebrated 10 years of existence. Given the ambitions of the party when it was founded and the evolution of Quebec’s political landscape, what evaluation can be made of the party's progress? Does the party really find itself “at a crossroads” as some would have us believe?

... In sum, Québec Solidaire has brought a pedagogy of progressivism to Quebec. But pedagogy alone isn’t enough....

For one thing, despite its inclusive positions, the party has trouble getting support from immigrant communities, first and foremost because it hasn’t developed a network. The solidarist program should have an advantage with the part of the population who feel the effects of poverty and oppression acutely, even though this part of the electorate is considered “captive” of the Liberal Party. Certainly the Liberal government’s austerity isn’t going to help those in need.

(Not the most important quotes, but maybe the most relevant to rabble readership

[url=https://ricochet.media/en/934/10th-anniversary-of-quebec-solidaire-movin... anniversary of Québec Solidaire: Moving beyond marginality[/url]

CROP:

PLQ 33% (+1 from last CROP poll)

PQ 26% (-4)

CAQ 25% (-1)

QS 14% (+3)

[url=http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201604/... CROP-La Presse: les libéraux en tête, malgré les mauvaises nouvelles[/url]

Not that this means much, but for fun it can be plugged into the tooclosetocall simulateur to get a predicted result of PLQ 56, PQ 37, CAQ 27, QS 5 (gaining Laurier-Dorion from the Liberals and Hochelaga-Maisonneuve from the PQ). 

le 18 août 2016

CROP

PLQ - 35%

PQ - 25%

CAQ - 25%

QS - 12%

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Francophones:

PQ - 30%

CAQ - 30%

PLQ - 24%

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Best Premier:

François Legault - 23%

Philippe Couillard - 20%

Françoise David - 10%

Sylvain Gaudreault - 8%

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http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201608/...

Intentions de vote au provincial au Québec

Léger

Le 3 septembre 2016

PLQ - 34%

PQ - 29%

CAQ - 23%

QS - 10%

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http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/pol_qccan_sond_030916.pdf

le 22 septembre 2016

CROP

PLQ - 37% [+2]

PQ - 27% [+2]

CAQ - 26% [+1]

QS - 9% [-3]

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http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201609/...

swallow wrote:

CROP:

Quebec vote intentions PLQ 36% (-1) CAQ 26% (+4) PQ 24% (-6) QS 11% (+2)

[url=http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-quebecoise/201611/... Presse[/url]

 

Is that the new leader's "honeymoon"?

bekayne wrote:

Is that the new leader's "honeymoon"?

It seems so. On the other hand, it's just a poll, and we know those are as much entertainment as they are science.

I know I couldn't vote for the PQ under the new leader's dog-whistle attacks on minorities, any more than I could have voted for them when they were led by a union-bashing plutocrat. 

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/politique_qc_28102017_sondage.pdf

The latest Leger provincial poll and looking at this poll it seems the great unravling for anglo support of the Liberals has begun. Looking at the broken down results and comparing it to the March poll you can see the trend that is leading to a decrease in Liberal polling results. Its not the francophone results that caused the fall from 34% to 29% in these polls as the francophone numbers have pretty much stayed the same (22% in March and 21% now.) But the anglo support has fallen 14 points in that same period (74% in March to 60% now). 60% is still high, but it still has room to fall considering only 44% are satisfied with the Liberal's governing.

That's why they're scrambling now with making Weil the minister for anglophones (which has been mocked in the anglo media endlessly because a few years ago in a lapresse article she was basically saying that she's not part of the anglo community and relates more with the francophone community. Ah Liberal token anglos, being captain english when it suits them and telling us to go fuck ourselves when we're no longer needed.)