Latest polling thread April 28th, 2015

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Sun, 2015-05-17 11:06

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Pondering wrote:

Winston wrote:

Well... How do you like THEM oranges? Pondering??? JKR???

Everything is coming up orange these days! Let's keep it going for another few months!

I like em just fine. I have hoped for a very long time that the Conservatives would fall into third place because I think they could splinter again leaving the Liberals and the NDP the two main parties. The downside is that if they do become the two main parties it could be no different than the old Conservatives and Liberals leaving progressives no farther ahead and having to form a new party from scratch.

Or, the NDP acts like really is a Social Demcratic party, which is likely, and the Liberals show their TRUE colors, and act like Conservatives, which THEY ARE. Then the ONLY home for left leaning voters is the NDP. Pondering, their is NO difference between your Liberals and the Tories, Liberal, Tory, SAME damn old story!

Sun, 2015-05-17 11:28

#153

Pondering

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Winston wrote:

Well... How do you like THEM oranges? Pondering??? JKR???

Everything is coming up orange these days! Let's keep it going for another few months!

I like em just fine. I have hoped for a very long time that the Conservatives would fall into third place because I think they could splinter again leaving the Liberals and the NDP the two main parties. The downside is that if they do become the two main parties it could be no different than the old Conservatives and Liberals leaving progressives no farther ahead and having to form a new party from scratch.

Or, the NDP acts like really is a Social Demcratic party, which is likely, and the Liberals show their TRUE colors, and act like Conservatives, which THEY ARE. Then the ONLY home for left leaning voters is the NDP. Pondering, their is NO difference between your Liberals and the Tories, Liberal, Tory, SAME damn old story!

In my opinion a progressive party would not have behaved as the NDP did when two of their MPs were sexually accosted. All political parties have to put political expediency ahead of principle sometimes but there was no need for it in this case. Their choice to use it as a weapon against the Liberals showed me the NDP's TRUE colours. There was no excuse for it and they kept it up for a full month.

Sun, 2015-05-17 11:56

#154

Brachina

Pondering wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Winston wrote:

Well... How do you like THEM oranges? Pondering??? JKR???

Everything is coming up orange these days! Let's keep it going for another few months!

I like em just fine. I have hoped for a very long time that the Conservatives would fall into third place because I think they could splinter again leaving the Liberals and the NDP the two main parties. The downside is that if they do become the two main parties it could be no different than the old Conservatives and Liberals leaving progressives no farther ahead and having to form a new party from scratch.

Or, the NDP acts like really is a Social Demcratic party, which is likely, and the Liberals show their TRUE colors, and act like Conservatives, which THEY ARE. Then the ONLY home for left leaning voters is the NDP. Pondering, their is NO difference between your Liberals and the Tories, Liberal, Tory, SAME damn old story!

In my opinion a progressive party would not have behaved as the NDP did when two of their MPs were sexually accosted. All political parties have to put political expediency ahead of principle sometimes but there was no need for it in this case. Their choice to use it as a weapon against the Liberals showed me the NDP's TRUE colours. There was no excuse for it and they kept it up for a full month.

Wow Pondering that was a cheap shot.

Sun, 2015-05-17 12:21

#155

mark_alfred

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Liberal, Tory, SAME damn old story!

It seems many people are finally seeing that reality.

It's interesting that both the Liberals and the Conservatives have seen their numbers slip at the precise same moment that each party released large portions of their tax cut programs to the public. The NDP, meanwhile, have gone up in popularity without releasing anything new. Rather, the NDP have simply been plodding along promoting items that they announced a while ago, such as their universal $15 a day childcare program, their proportional representation pledge, their proposed corporate tax increase, their increase of the minimum wage to $15, their pledge to abolish the wasteful Senate, revive the long gun registry, etc. Perhaps slow and steady wins the race.

Seems Mulcair's plan to release ideas early to let people get used to ideas of real change is starting to work. People are turning to the NDP's plan rather than just the mildly different variations of tax cutting that both the Liberals and Conservatives are campaigning on. Let's hope it continues.

Sun, 2015-05-17 12:54

#156

NorthReport

I would be cautious about polling results from some pollsters that don't necessarily have a good track record.

Herding:

Herding is a title given to a process that was created by a professional aggregator in the USA called Nate Silver who worked for years for the New York Times. And by-the-way, I am not aware of any aggregator in Canada that uses a process to prevent herding. What the process to prevent herding does is take the average of the last 3 weeks of polling and uses that figure divided by the number of polls. The reason being is that some pollsters unfortunately may overinflate or underinflate the strength of certain political parties, and then just before the election, that same pollster will publish polls which are more accurate, so as to appear close to accurate. Legitimate pollstsers have nothing to worry about when the process to prevent herding process is used.

A little analysis to prevent "herding" in our last federal election of 2011:

Actual Results: Cons - 40%, NDP - 31%, Libs - 19%

Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Total Difference

Nanos Research / 39% / 1% / 23% / 8% / 27% / 8% / 17%

Underestimated the NDP by 8%, the Conservatives by 1%, and overestimated the Liberals by 8%.

Compas / 46% / 6% / 21% / 2% / 21% / 10% / 18%

Overestimated Conservatives by 6%, underestimated NDP by 10%, and overestimated Liberals by 2%

EKOS / 35% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 26% / 5% / 15%

Underestimaed Conservatives by 5%, underestimated NDP by 5%, overestimated Liberals by 5%

Innovative Research / 39% / 1% / 27% / 8% / 19% / 12% / 21%

Underestimated Conservatives by 1%, overestimated Liberals by 8%, and underestimated NDP by 12%

Forum Research / 35% / 5% / 22% / 3% / 29% / 2% / 10%

Underestimated Conservatives & NDP, and overestimated Liberals

All of the above pollsters underestimated the NDP, all but one underestimated the Conservatives, and all overestimated the Liberals

Addition to initial post:

Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Total Difference

Abacus / 37% / 3% / 24% / 5% / 26% / 5% / 13%

Angus Reid / 36% / 4% / 22% / 3% / 29% / 2% / 9%

Environics / 39% / 1% / 23% / 4% / 24% / 7% / 12%

Harris Decima / 36% / 4% / 21% / 2% / 30% / 1% / 7%

Leger Marketing / 37% / 3% / 24% / 5% / 27% / 4% / 12%

Silver's website is: www.fivethirtyeight.com

Sun, 2015-05-17 12:56

#157

NorthReport

Here are the polling results, using the process to eliminate herding, for the last election from best performance to worst performance in descending order, and the most accurate pollster is Ipsos Reid.

Will there be that much difference between the actual results and the pollsters in the upcoming 2015 election as there was in 2011, our last election?

Herding:

Herding is a title given to a process that was created by a professional aggregator in the USA called Nate Silver who worked for years for the New York Times. And by-the-way, I am not aware of any aggregator in Canada that uses a process to prevent herding. What the process to prevent herding does is take the average of the last 3 weeks of polling and uses that figure divided by the numberpolls. The reason being is that some pollsters unfortunately may overinflate or underinflate the strength of certain political parties, and then just before the election, that same pollster will publish polls which are more accurate, so as to appear close to accurate. Legitimate pollstsers have nothing to worry about when the process to prevent herding process is used.

Federal Election 2011 Actual Results: Cons - 40%, NDP - 31%, Libs - 19%

Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 41% / 1% / 28% / 3% / 20% / 1% / 5%

Harris Decima / 36% / 4% / 30% / 1% / 21% / 2% / 7%

Angus Reid / 36% / 4% / 29% / 2% / 22% / 3% / 9%

Forum Research / 35% / 5% / 29% / 2% / 22% / 3% / 10%

Environics / 39% / 1% / 24% / 7% / 23% / 4% / 12%

Leger Marketing / 37% / 3% / 27% / 4% / 24% / 5% / 12%

Abacus / 37% / 3% / 26% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 13%

EKOS / 35% / 5% / 24% / 5% / 26% / 5% / 15%

Nanos Research / 39% / 1% / 23% / 8% / 27% / 8% / 17%

Compas / 46% / 6% / 21% / 10% / 21% / 2% / 18%

Innovative Research / 39% / 1% / 19% / 12% / 27% / 8% / 21%

Silver's website is: www.fivethirtyeight.com

Sun, 2015-05-17 12:57

#158

NorthReport

The NDP received 31% of the votes on May 2, 2011.

Here are some polling results for the NDP just before the last election was called, compared to what votes they actually received, and the difference:

Date - Pollster - Mar '11 - Actual Election

Mar 24 '11 - AR - 19% - 31%, Up 12%

Mar 24 24 '11 - LM - 19% - 31%, Up 12%

Mar 24 '11 - EKOS - 14% - 31%, Up 17%

Mar 23 '11 - IR - 16% - 31%, Up 15%

Mar 20 '11 - HD - 17% - 31%, Up 14%

Mar 16 ' 11 - EKOS - 16% - 31%, Up 15%

Mar 15 '11 - NR - 20% - 31%, Up 11%

What's significant is not one single solitary pollster had an inkling what was coming, so when people start basing seat projections on polls that may well be 10 months away from a election, it is based entirely on voodoo science. Nothing more, and nothing less. Anyone posting seat projections right now is just trying to manipulate the voters.

Sun, 2015-05-17 12:59

#159

NorthReport

Applying the process to prevent herding in the Oct 14, 2008 Election

Election Results: C - 38%, N - 18%, L - 26%, B - 10%

Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Bloc / Dif / Total Difference

Angus Reid / 38% / 0% / 26% / 0% / 19% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 1% - Phenomenal Results

Ipsos Reid / 37% 1% / 18% / 0% / 25% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 2% - Amazin' results as well

Strategic Counsel / 36% / 2% / 27% / 1% / 19% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 4% - Not bad!

Nanos / 36% / 2% / 20% / 2% / 26% / 1% / 10% / 0% / 5%

Segma / 35% / 1% / 23% / 3% / 21% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 6%

Harris Decima / 35% / 3% / 19% / 1% / 26% / 1% / 9% / 1% / 6%

EKOS / 35% / 3% / 19% / 1% / 24% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 6%

We can now put to bed the nonsense that Ipsos Reid is not an accurate pollster, eh!

*Environics did publish a poll outside the 3 week analysis period used to prevent herding on Sep 2, 2008 as follows:

Pollster / Cons / Dif / NDP / Dif / Libs / Dif / Bloc / Dif / Total Difference

Environics / 38% / 2% / 19% / 1% / 28% / 2% / 10% / 0% / 5%

Sun, 2015-05-17 13:00

#160

NorthReport

So now let's combine the track records using the anaysis to prevent herding for the 2008 and 2011 federal elections*

Pollster / Total Difference

Ipsos Reid / 4% - Most Accurate Pollster

Angus Reid / 5% - Close Second

Harris Decima / 6% - Not bad!

EKOS / 11%

Nanos / 11%

*The Bloc results have been excluded from the stats

Sun, 2015-05-17 13:18

#161

Pondering

I don't think "herding" has near the impact you think and the polling numbers do not represent what will happen when the election actually occurs. Whose numbers were the most accurate the day before the election?

Sun, 2015-05-17 13:46

#162

Northern-54

Part of the reason all major political parties in Canada have internal pollsters is due to "herding" by polling companies with close connections to specific political parties. Those results cannot be trusted until just prior to election days. I remember being told that I had scooped Tyree in British Columbia because I pointed out that Nanos was "altering" their results midway through the last federal election, the discrepancy between their results and other pollsters at the time being too apart to be mathematically possible. This was pointed out at Tyree two days later (and by other political websites over the next couple of days). It did not take Nanos long before their results were more plausible. I have traditionally not trusted EKOS, due to close Liberal ties, but they did catch the wave towards the NDP earlier than other pollsters in the 2011 election.

I think that herding has become less a problem as pollsters have been put more under public scrutiny for doing it. Still, I think any political party that did not do their own polling and relied on public pollsters to save money would be making a mistake.

Sun, 2015-05-17 14:00

#163

Sean in Ottawa

Brachina wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Winston wrote:

Well... How do you like THEM oranges? Pondering??? JKR???

Everything is coming up orange these days! Let's keep it going for another few months!

I like em just fine. I have hoped for a very long time that the Conservatives would fall into third place because I think they could splinter again leaving the Liberals and the NDP the two main parties. The downside is that if they do become the two main parties it could be no different than the old Conservatives and Liberals leaving progressives no farther ahead and having to form a new party from scratch.

Or, the NDP acts like really is a Social Demcratic party, which is likely, and the Liberals show their TRUE colors, and act like Conservatives, which THEY ARE. Then the ONLY home for left leaning voters is the NDP. Pondering, their is NO difference between your Liberals and the Tories, Liberal, Tory, SAME damn old story!

In my opinion a progressive party would not have behaved as the NDP did when two of their MPs were sexually accosted. All political parties have to put political expediency ahead of principle sometimes but there was no need for it in this case. Their choice to use it as a weapon against the Liberals showed me the NDP's TRUE colours. There was no excuse for it and they kept it up for a full month.

Wow Pondering that was a cheap shot.

This is what we have come to expect from someone who has has been discredited and is not relevant to the discussion other than as background noise promoting the Liberal party.

The particular story referenced here was well examined and the poster is simply trying to reset a failed argument to distract and derail a disucssion that is not supportive of her dear leader.

In offline life we get cheap sales people knocking on the door and Jehova's winesses telling us we will go to hell if we don't follow their advice. On line we get posters like this. Not buying from any of them.

Sun, 2015-05-17 14:10

#164

NorthReport

Actually according to this polling history it was Angus Reid on April 16, 2011 which had the NDP at 25% several days before EKOS recognized the orange wave on April 20, 2011. And according to my research Angus Reid and Ipso Reid were the two most accurate pollsters during the last 2 federal elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_ele...

Sun, 2015-05-17 14:18

#165

Northern-54

I didn't mean that EKOS had caught the orange wave earlier than ALL other pollsters, just other pollsters.

Sun, 2015-05-17 14:35

#166

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Actually according to this polling history it was Angus Reid on April 16, 2011 which had the NDP at 25% several days before EKOS recognized the orange wave on April 20, 2011. And according to my research Angus Reid and Ipso Reid were the two most accurate pollsters during the last 2 federal elections.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_ele...

I fairness it looks like the polls steadily increased from all sources through the election.

Sun, 2015-05-17 15:04

#167

NorthReport

But Angus Reid days before the rest of the pollsters saw the NDP jump to 25%. EKOS was the next pollster to catch the wave but it was 4 days later.

Sun, 2015-05-17 16:57

#168

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Brachina wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Winston wrote:

Well... How do you like THEM oranges? Pondering??? JKR???

Everything is coming up orange these days! Let's keep it going for another few months!

I like em just fine. I have hoped for a very long time that the Conservatives would fall into third place because I think they could splinter again leaving the Liberals and the NDP the two main parties. The downside is that if they do become the two main parties it could be no different than the old Conservatives and Liberals leaving progressives no farther ahead and having to form a new party from scratch.

Or, the NDP acts like really is a Social Demcratic party, which is likely, and the Liberals show their TRUE colors, and act like Conservatives, which THEY ARE. Then the ONLY home for left leaning voters is the NDP. Pondering, their is NO difference between your Liberals and the Tories, Liberal, Tory, SAME damn old story!

In my opinion a progressive party would not have behaved as the NDP did when two of their MPs were sexually accosted. All political parties have to put political expediency ahead of principle sometimes but there was no need for it in this case. Their choice to use it as a weapon against the Liberals showed me the NDP's TRUE colours. There was no excuse for it and they kept it up for a full month.

Wow Pondering that was a cheap shot.

This is what we have come to expect from someone who has has been discredited and is not relevant to the discussion other than as background noise promoting the Liberal party.

The particular story referenced here was well examined and the poster is simply trying to reset a failed argument to distract and derail a disucssion that is not supportive of her dear leader.

In offline life we get cheap sales people knocking on the door and Jehova's winesses telling us we will go to hell if we don't follow their advice. On line we get posters like this. Not buying from any of them.

How is it a cheap shot? The comment I am responding to made statements about the Liberals and Conservatives showing their true colours. It's not a cheap shot to mention an ongoing month long reaction by the NDP that in my opinion showed their true colours. It's not like anyone is going to read that and agree with me if they don't already know about what happened enough to have formed their own opinion.

Yes the story was well examined as has been the claims that the Liberals are exactly like the Conservatives and the claim that the NDP is the only left-wing choice.

As to the rest of your comments.....

http://abc11.com/family/video-mom-does-hilarious-lip-sync-of-daughters-t...

Sun, 2015-05-17 17:29

#169

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

But Angus Reid days before the rest of the pollsters saw the NDP jump to 25%. EKOS was the next pollster to catch the wave but it was 4 days later.

It seems that most of the pollsters follow each other closely.

Wed, 2015-05-20 17:35

#170

NorthReport

Shades of 2011 perhpas, with the NDP rising in the polls just a bit earlier this time

Sure like looking at the chart these days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

Thu, 2015-05-21 11:24

#171

Stockholm

The Dogwood Initiative has released riding polls in four BC swing ridings and they have big NDP leads in all for of them

Insights West interviewed 300 voting-age adults by telephone in each of four different federal ridings. Those who said they were likely to vote were asked, “if the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of these candidates would you support?”

Courtenay-Alberni

Cowichan-Malahat-Langford

Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke

Burnaby-North Seymour

Conservative

23%

22%

14%

15%

NDP

33%

32%

42%

35%

Liberal

11%

12%

Green

13%

19%

Other

No vote /
Undecided /
Refused

23%

22%

16%

24%

“The federal Liberal Party is currently not competitive in these ridings, in spite of a seemingly high proportion of residents who regard Justin Trudeau as their preferred prime minister,” said Canseco. “The New Democrats are ahead in all four constituencies, with an extremely high number of supporters in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.”

https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/polling-results-summary

Thu, 2015-05-21 14:37

#172

Policywonk

Victoria, Nanaimo-Ladysmith and whatever the North Island district is called now would be interesting. I don't think the Liberals are competitive anywhere on the Island.

Thu, 2015-05-21 15:00

#173

josh

Stockholm wrote:

The Dogwood Initiative has released riding polls in four BC swing ridings and they have big NDP leads in all for of them

Insights West interviewed 300 voting-age adults by telephone in each of four different federal ridings. Those who said they were likely to vote were asked, “if the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of these candidates would you support?”

Courtenay-Alberni

Cowichan-Malahat-Langford

Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke

Burnaby-North Seymour

Conservative

23%

22%

14%

15%

NDP

33%

32%

42%

35%

Liberal

11%

12%

12%

6%

Green

9%

8%

13%

19%

Other

2%

4%

3%

1%

No vote /
Undecided /
Refused

23%

22%

16%

24%

“The federal Liberal Party is currently not competitive in these ridings, in spite of a seemingly high proportion of residents who regard Justin Trudeau as their preferred prime minister,” said Canseco. “The New Democrats are ahead in all four constituencies, with an extremely high number of supporters in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.”

https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/polling-results-summary

The Burnaby riding is probably most significant as, on paper, it looks like the toughest for the NDP of the 4.

Thu, 2015-05-21 17:02

#174

Debater

NorthReport wrote:

Shades of 2011 perhpas, with the NDP rising in the polls just a bit earlier this time

Sure like looking at the chart these days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

Is it possible that the NDP may peak too soon this year and subside by the time of October?

Thu, 2015-05-21 17:21

#175

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Shades of 2011 perhpas, with the NDP rising in the polls just a bit earlier this time

Sure like looking at the chart these days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

Is it possible that the NDP may peak too soon this year and subside by the time of October?

Yes.

Thu, 2015-05-21 17:24

#176

NorthReport

My hunch is that the NDP is far from peaking, and they will need more support to realize their goal of majority government.

Thu, 2015-05-21 17:54

#177

NorthReport

New Poll Shows NDP Dominance on BC Coast

'Key, hot-button, emotional election issues' turning voter tide, posits Dogwood's Nagata.

Telling result in Burnaby North - Seymour?

One of the poll's most telling results, Nagata said, is that of Burnaby North - Seymour -- the riding created in the 2011 changes -- which the Conservatives would have won in 2011 with 44 per cent of the vote.

The poll shows the Tories now have 15 per cent of the riding's support, with the New Democrats at 35 per cent. The Greens take second place at 19 per cent.

Nagata suggested that the centralization of power within political parties, along with the growing influence of the east and Alberta power centres, have left British Columbians feeling slighted.

Enbridge protest

Hundreds of tanker traffic opponents took to Vancouver's streets in June 2014, with the pledge to 'defend our coast.' Photo by David P. Ball.

"There's going to be a disconnect with what people value in B.C. with these issues, and an obvious one is the oil tanker issue," Nagata said.

Two major pipeline projects that would ship oil to the coast for export via tankers are currently proposed for the province. They face fierce opposition from First Nations, environmental groups, and other residents.

In September 2014, NDP MP Nathan Cullen introduced a private member's bill that would ban oil supertankers from B.C.'s north coast.

Nagata added that British Columbians appear to be developing malaise toward politicians.

"Being this far from Ottawa, people feel maybe a little less blind loyalty to our institutions, and more like we're on the receiving end of some pretty nasty government policies over the last few years," he said.

He said that despite oil tankers being a pivotal issue in the upcoming election, the Green Party does not appear to be making gains in the ridings polled.

The Green Party has said it would ban supertankers on the coast, and later phase out bitumen-diluent tankers in the Port of Vancouver.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/05/21/NDP-Dominates-BC-Coast/

Thu, 2015-05-21 18:54

#178

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

New Poll Shows NDP Dominance on BC Coast

'Key, hot-button, emotional election issues' turning voter tide, posits Dogwood's Nagata.

Telling result in Burnaby North - Seymour?

He said that despite oil tankers being a pivotal issue in the upcoming election, the Green Party does not appear to be making gains in the ridings polled.

The Green Party has said it would ban supertankers on the coast, and later phase out bitumen-diluent tankers in the Port of Vancouver.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/05/21/NDP-Dominates-BC-Coast/

Going from 4% to 25% in Burnaby North Seymour is not a gain?

Thu, 2015-05-21 19:17

#179

NorthReport

The NDP went from close wins in 2011 to substantial leads now so don't understand what you are talking about?

This augers well for many other seats in BC for the NDP.

Maybe May's seat will even be in play this time.

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

New Poll Shows NDP Dominance on BC Coast

'Key, hot-button, emotional election issues' turning voter tide, posits Dogwood's Nagata.

Telling result in Burnaby North - Seymour?

He said that despite oil tankers being a pivotal issue in the upcoming election, the Green Party does not appear to be making gains in the ridings polled.

The Green Party has said it would ban supertankers on the coast, and later phase out bitumen-diluent tankers in the Port of Vancouver.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/05/21/NDP-Dominates-BC-Coast/

Going from 4% to 25% in Burnaby North Seymour is not a gain?

Thu, 2015-05-21 20:53

#180

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

The NDP went from close wins in 2011 to substantial leads now so don't understand what you are talking about?

The article stated the Greens were not making gains, but the polling showed them going from 4% to 25% of decided voters in one of the ridings.

Thu, 2015-05-21 23:11

#181

Policywonk

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

New Poll Shows NDP Dominance on BC Coast

'Key, hot-button, emotional election issues' turning voter tide, posits Dogwood's Nagata.

Telling result in Burnaby North - Seymour?

He said that despite oil tankers being a pivotal issue in the upcoming election, the Green Party does not appear to be making gains in the ridings polled.

The Green Party has said it would ban supertankers on the coast, and later phase out bitumen-diluent tankers in the Port of Vancouver.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/05/21/NDP-Dominates-BC-Coast/

Going from 4% to 25% in Burnaby North Seymour is not a gain?

Where do you get the 25% from?

Thu, 2015-05-21 23:20

#182

bekayne

Policywonk wrote:

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

New Poll Shows NDP Dominance on BC Coast

'Key, hot-button, emotional election issues' turning voter tide, posits Dogwood's Nagata.

Telling result in Burnaby North - Seymour?

He said that despite oil tankers being a pivotal issue in the upcoming election, the Green Party does not appear to be making gains in the ridings polled.

The Green Party has said it would ban supertankers on the coast, and later phase out bitumen-diluent tankers in the Port of Vancouver.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/05/21/NDP-Dominates-BC-Coast/

Going from 4% to 25% in Burnaby North Seymour is not a gain?

Where do you get the 25% from?

19% Green, 24% undecided. Take out the undecided=25%

https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/polling-results-summary

Thu, 2015-05-21 23:51

#183

NorthReport

Another dynamite article by Karl. Actually the best one I have read about federal politics in a long, long time.

It is time to ditch talk of 'strategic voting'

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/karl-nerenberg/2015/05/it-time-to-ditch-...

Fri, 2015-05-22 00:03

#184

Basement Dweller

As someone who grew up in North Van (city), I'm floored by the numbers for Burnaby North-Seymour. It seems a little good to be true.

Fri, 2015-05-22 00:19

#185

Policywonk

bekayne wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

New Poll Shows NDP Dominance on BC Coast

'Key, hot-button, emotional election issues' turning voter tide, posits Dogwood's Nagata.

Telling result in Burnaby North - Seymour?

He said that despite oil tankers being a pivotal issue in the upcoming election, the Green Party does not appear to be making gains in the ridings polled.

The Green Party has said it would ban supertankers on the coast, and later phase out bitumen-diluent tankers in the Port of Vancouver.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2015/05/21/NDP-Dominates-BC-Coast/

Going from 4% to 25% in Burnaby North Seymour is not a gain?

Where do you get the 25% from?

19% Green, 24% undecided. Take out the undecided=25%

https://dogwoodinitiative.org/media-centre/files/polling-results-summary

Of course. Thank you. And the same calculation gives 56% for the NDP.

Fri, 2015-05-22 07:34

#186

nicky

Fabulous numbers for NDP and for Tom Mucair in Quebec in new CROP poll:

http://www.lapresse.ca/le-soleil/actualites/politique/201505/21/01-48715...

Fri, 2015-05-22 07:55

#187

nicky

In looking a little more closely at the numbers, the NDP has gained 11% in a month.

Justin Trudeau may be becoming a serious drag on the Liberals in Quebec. In January the Best PM numbers were Trudeau 29 Mulcair 26. A month ago they were were Mulcair 31 Trudeau 24. Now they are Mulcair 37 Trudeau 16.

Eliminating undecideds the Best PM figures are now Mulcair 50 Trudeau 21. Tom is running well ahead of his party (which is at 42%) and Trudeau behind his (25%). Beaulieu polls a miserable 2% and Harper 11 (14 without undecideds). Leadership numbers are often a leading indicator of party support so there is reason to think the NDP support might well grow.

There should be a national EKOS poll out today. Last weeks EKOS had the NDP at 38% in Quebec , four less than in today's CROP. So it is getting very intersting.

Fri, 2015-05-22 09:19

#188

NorthReport

This is huge.

NDP leads Conservatives in four key B.C. ridings: poll Liberals fare poorly, despite Justin Trudeau’s personal popularity

If the poll results prove accurate when the votes roll in, that would mean the defeat of veteran Conservative cabinet minister John Duncan, who is seeking a new mandate in Courtenay-Alberni.

There is a clear strategic gambit at play by Dogwood, which is planning to poll other ridings along the B.C. coast. The organization has been an aggressive critic of the Harper government’s plan to encourage the expansion of oilsands pipelines in B.C. and tanker traffic off the B.C. coast.

One of the organization’s goals was to assess whether Justin Trudeau’s Liberals or Elizabeth May’s Greens might be seen as viable options for any-but-Harper voters, according to Dogwood spokesman Kai Nagata.

“We’re not going to issue endorsements or tell anyone who to vote for,” Nagata said. “But we do want citizens to know where their candidates stand and which ones have a decent chance at winning.”

http://www.canada.com/news/leads+Conservatives+four+ridings+poll/1107312...

Fri, 2015-05-22 10:35

#189

terrytowel

Can we discuss the argument of the higher the NDP polls, the better it is for the Cons?

Because in 2011 with the rise of the NDP, that allowed vote splitting for the Cons to come up the middle.

That is what really worries me.

I'd be happy if Thomas Mulcair wins a majority government for the NDP

But if the NDP & Libs cause vote spliting to allow the Cons to come up the middle, I won't be happy.

It would be a repeat of 2011.

Please no bashing, this is what really scares me and makes me depressed.

At this point I wouldn't even mind if the Libs crashed to the low teens.

As long as someone can oust Harper.

But now it is a three way race, and wouldn't that benefit the Cons?

Fri, 2015-05-22 10:36

#190

NorthReport

Just follow the trends. We are 5 months out - it won't be a three way race forever.

Fri, 2015-05-22 10:46

#191

clambake

Harper is currently in minority territory with a stronger NDP opposition. If Liberals still refuse a coalition, they will be decimated in 2019.

Fri, 2015-05-22 10:49

#192

terrytowel

For NDP to get into majority territory they need the Libs to get into the teens in support. Otherwise vote splitting will lead to another Harper majority

Unless the NDP starts to advocate strategic voting.

Fri, 2015-05-22 11:32

#193

clambake

Latest EKOS:

NDP - 29.6

CPC - 28.1

LPC - 26.1

And the big take away:

Ontario:

NDP - 31

CPC - 31

LPC - 27

Fri, 2015-05-22 11:33

#194

terrytowel

Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!

Fri, 2015-05-22 11:37

#195

clambake

Fri, 2015-05-22 11:38

#196

clambake

Alberta numbers looking great. Though Quebec is much tighter than the recent CROP poll indicated. Great momentum, nonetheless.

Fri, 2015-05-22 11:40

#197

terrytowel

Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!

Fri, 2015-05-22 12:06

#198

nicky

The NDP lead would be much greater were it not for numbers in Quebec, BC and thye Prairies that are lower than other recent polls.

Fri, 2015-05-22 12:22

#199

Marco C

clambake wrote:

Is this real? I meen really real? what the heck is going on??? Has Canada finaly woken up or is this a cruel joke....

Stay calm, don't get cocky, just smile and nod like this is not big deal.... WOW!!!

Fri, 2015-05-22 13:53

#200

Sean in Ottawa

terrytowel wrote:

For NDP to get into majority territory they need the Libs to get into the teens in support. Otherwise vote splitting will lead to another Harper majority

Unless the NDP starts to advocate strategic voting.

No they don't.

The splitting formula for Harper is one opposition party in the teens and the other about 30 and the CPC near 40%. Then he can win.

With both opposition parties above 25% and Harper only at 30% he is screwed in a number of ways.

First-- any attack on one opposition party will only give the election to the other at best-- that is if people do not ignore Conservative attacks entirely. With a highly regional electoral map the opposition parties will each take different regions from Harper.

Harper is the one caught in the middle when it comes to vote strengths. His vote is concentrated as well. He could come up with the most votes and least number of seats.

As I have been saying the election will decide which opposition party eats Harper's lunch and which eats his dinner.

If the NDP and Liberals are sitting at a combined 55% to Harper at 30% there is no vote splitting that saves Harper from defeat. The only questions will be magnitude, who wins, and if they have a majority.

Fri, 2015-05-22 14:46

#201

socialdemocrati...

terrytowel wrote:
But if the NDP & Libs cause vote spliting to allow the Cons to come up the middle, I won't be happy.

It would be a repeat of 2011.

Please no bashing, this is what really scares me and makes me depressed.

Hey terry, you seem like you're asking a sincere question, so I'm going to give you a sincere answer, as someone who reads the polls closely, and understands the math and science of polling pretty well.

TIMING OF THE ELECTION

In 2011, the election came on literally the worst possible day. It was literally the highest the conservatives ever polled since the Conservative party was assembled 12 years ago.

If the election had been even a few days earlier, the Liberals wouldn't have collapsed so badly in Ontario, and would have held the Conservatives to a minority. The Liberals hit their lowest to date, on the day that the young Conservative Party hit their highest to date.

If the election had been even a few days later, the NDP actually OUTpolled their election result. Quite the contrary to people trying to block an NDP government -- once voters found out the NDP was the official opposition and the best party to stop the Conservatives, they gained on the Conservatives.

Basically, if the election had been ended a few days earlier OR a few days later, the combined Liberal-NDP votes would have held the Conservatives to a minority.

CONSERVATIVES IN FREE FALL

I know that people who hate the Conservatives struggle to wonder how they still have any support at all. But as I stated earlier, the 2011 result was literally the highest they've ever polled. In the past four years, they've been steadily declining.

A few notable highlights:

A Mulcair bounce that might have given us an NDP minority government in June 2012.
A Trudeau bounce that might have given us a Liberal minority government one year later.

What's important to note: the Conservatives haven't recovered from their low in 2013. If they seem to be hanging on, it has everything to do with the collapse of the Liberals.

A CONSERVATIVE MINORITY, OR A PROGRESSIVE COALITION?

The Conservatives can't win a majority with 30%. They can't even win a majority with 35%. They need to match their 2011 result, and they're nowhere close.

It's worth noting that if you just flip the Alberta provincial ridings where the NDP won more than 50% of the vote provincially (mainly Edmonton, Lethbridge, some of Calgary), the Conservatives would lose their majority overnight. So even if you have doubts that the NDP could win a majority of a seats in Alberta, just know that even just holding Edmonton screws things up for the Conservatives.

I know people aren't fond of any Conservative government, even a minority. Which is why more than ever, we need to be open to a coalition. I've always had my doubts. But I also know that some of the most successful Canadian governments have been when the Liberals were forced to work with the NDP. That's how Canada has universal health care.

OR WHAT?

But if we know anything at all, we know that numbers can change.

I remain optimistic that the NDP can hit where they were after the Mulcair bounce, and even exceed it. Not just because they're experiencing a huge bounce in Quebec, but because that bounce came from another unprecedented bounce in Alberta. The NDP is convincing voters that have never voted NDP before (let alone Liberal), and that will allow them to hit numbers they've never hit before.

I also think that the NDP is benefitting from fatigue with the Conservative-Liberal provincial alliance in BC. We've seen a Western-and-Quebec government under Mulroney, and I think Mulcair's coalition could look similar, except less rural and more urban.

Of course, numbers might NOT change. They could even change for the worse.

I guess the last thing I'd ask: is Harper going into 2015 with voters more excited for him than 2011? Or less? The answer to that seems obvious.

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