Is this real? I meen really real? what the heck is going on??? Has Canada finaly woken up or is this a cruel joke....
Stay calm, don't get cocky, just smile and nod like this is not big deal.... WOW!!!
Agreed. This is fabulous news. Last election Ontario went Conservative. If Ontario goes NDP this time, which now looks plausible, along with Quebec and BC, then it's their time.
socialdemocraticmiddle and Sean in Ottawa thanks for your comments
Learned an awful lot!
PS Sean in Ottawa thanks so much for defending me in another thread. Meant alot
As Kim Campbell once said, Consider yourself hugged.
socialdemocraticmiddle and Sean in Ottawa thanks for your comments
Learned an awful lot!
PS Sean in Ottawa thanks so much for defending me in another thread. Meant alot
As Kim Campbell once said, Consider yourself hugged.
Awww thanks -- what better to hug you than a towel!
It's always good to be able to have an honest discussion without people trying to spin it for their party. You're welcome, and thanks for asking.
My question is what are Nanos and 308 smoking as they seem quite removed from what is actually going on.
Well 308 is an aggregate model so it's going to take time and more polls before things that to line up.
The Nanos polls is odd as it was done over 4 weeks... which I think is a flawed poll as it tries to give number but the time fram is to long. I would like to see how the numbers eleved over the 4 weeks of the poll, my guess is week four reflects that Forum and EKOS have been showing. I personaly think Eric made a mistake on adding the Nanos poll the the 308 model but again is an aggregate so the less relevant date from Nanos will be flushed out.
Now come the election I think things will change quickly on 308, just as they changed during the Alberta election. once polls started to show the ANDP rising the aggregate model on 308 reflected that quickly and correctly. I know Eric and 308 gets a lot of shit but it's comes equally from all sides so I find it more trustworthy, just my oppinion.
All in all I hyped to see what happens when 308 add the latest EKOS and CROP data, I'm also hopping we get some other polls that reinforce the the NDP rise.
But now it is a three way race, and wouldn't that benefit the Cons?
Remember how Alberta polls were similarly showing a three way race--and yet projectionists were using those figures to predict a Wildrose majority or something close to it, under the presumption that all that NDP voting intention was wasted in Edmonton?
Sometimes, projectionists can be *really* dumb.
Sometimes, projectionists can be *really* dumb.
I thought that work was all done digitally these days. I seem to recall some labour strife about this back in the 90s. 
But now it is a three way race, and wouldn't that benefit the Cons?
Remember how Alberta polls were similarly showing a three way race--and yet projectionists were using those figures to predict a Wildrose majority or something close to it, under the presumption that all that NDP voting intention was wasted in Edmonton?
Sometimes, projectionists can be *really* dumb.
Early on, until the NDP was also ahead in Calgary and the rest of Alberta.
But now it is a three way race, and wouldn't that benefit the Cons?
Remember how Alberta polls were similarly showing a three way race--and yet projectionists were using those figures to predict a Wildrose majority or something close to it, under the presumption that all that NDP voting intention was wasted in Edmonton?
Sometimes, projectionists can be *really* dumb.
Early on, until the NDP was also ahead in Calgary and the rest of Alberta. Actually some pundits were still predicting a week before the election that the PCs could still pull it off.
That should tell you how bad they were all shocked by the 2012 results and how much they couldn't fathom anything else.
It was actualy really nice to watch the electionnitght returns, most people outside of Alberta could see the writing on the wall, but when people started to see the returns somthing changed in their faces and atitudes, even the pundits... even the PC pundit. It was like watching someone having a wieght lifted off them or having a breath a fresh air, they started to smile and it made me smile to.
Sorry, maybe I'm a bit to idealistic, but I think that if we really get a NDP win in October most people are going to smile even if they didn't vote NDP. They'll smile because they system can work, it can overcome money and negativity and fear. I think I'll take a nice walk that day.
You’ve all seen this already, but…wow. Trudeau better make changes, and soon!
Matt says:May 22, 2015 at 6:16 pm
To be fair, EKOS is the only pollster who has the NDP that high and the Liberals that low.
Nanos released earlier this week. IIRC – ConservativeS 32%, Liberals 30% and the NDP 25%.
Pundits' Guide says:May 23, 2015 at 1:40 am
The Nanos poll averages phone responses over a 4-week period, whereas Ekos is reporting HD-IVR responses every week. The latter is going to be more sensitive to sudden shifts, while the former is going to smooth the impact of short-term blips. A movement exceeding 10 points over few weeks is less likely to be a blip motivated by brief items in the news cycle. Nanos also acknowledged the movement when reporting his numbers, but will show the full impact in a few weeks, assuming it doesn’t revert to the mean before then.
http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/05/youve-all-seen-this-already-but-wow-tr...
That should tell you how bad they were all shocked by the 2012 results and how much they couldn't fathom anything else.
It was actualy really nice to watch the electionnitght returns, most people outside of Alberta could see the writing on the wall, but when people started to see the returns somthing changed in their faces and atitudes, even the pundits... even the PC pundit. It was like watching someone having a wieght lifted off them or having a breath a fresh air, they started to smile and it made me smile to.
Sorry, maybe I'm a bit to idealistic, but I think that if we really get a NDP win in October most people are going to smile even if they didn't vote NDP. They'll smile because they system can work, it can overcome money and negativity and fear. I think I'll take a nice walk that day.
I would smile if the NDP won the federal election because I will be happy and relieved to see Harper gone and encouraged that Canadians are willing to elect the NDP federally. I would smile even more broadly if the Conservatives fell to 3rd.
That should tell you how bad they were all shocked by the 2012 results and how much they couldn't fathom anything else.
It was actualy really nice to watch the electionnitght returns, most people outside of Alberta could see the writing on the wall, but when people started to see the returns somthing changed in their faces and atitudes, even the pundits... even the PC pundit. It was like watching someone having a wieght lifted off them or having a breath a fresh air, they started to smile and it made me smile to.
Sorry, maybe I'm a bit to idealistic, but I think that if we really get a NDP win in October most people are going to smile even if they didn't vote NDP. They'll smile because they system can work, it can overcome money and negativity and fear. I think I'll take a nice walk that day.
Just made me smile reading this post. I think you are right.
If I am right and the Trudeau issue is now a trust issue he may not be able to. What can you say when people stop believing you?
But now it is a three way race, and wouldn't that benefit the Cons?
Remember how Alberta polls were similarly showing a three way race--and yet projectionists were using those figures to predict a Wildrose majority or something close to it, under the presumption that all that NDP voting intention was wasted in Edmonton?
Sometimes, projectionists can be *really* dumb.
Early on, until the NDP was also ahead in Calgary and the rest of Alberta. Actually some pundits were still predicting a week before the election that the PCs could still pull it off.
But that punditry was based less on static polling numbers than on last-minute-shift allowance a la 2012.
The point is more that with surging underdogs a la the Alta NDP in 2015, projection models based excessively upon previous-election results (which are often "skewed" by strategic campaign-superconcentration within a set few seats) are bound to fail. The same goes, of course, for the federal NDP in Quebec in 2011--where even when they were on the verge of overtaking the Bloc, a lot of projection-based pundits found it hard to see their cracking a 5-10-or-at-most-15-seat ceiling.
So EKOS and then Forum are the first pollsters to recognize this recent surge in NDP support, following the Alberta NDP Orange Tsunami, with the latest poll showing the NDP first, and the Liberals at only 26% support and dead last. -
Who will be next pollster to confirm the jump in support for the NDP ?
Ipsos Reid?
Angus Reid?
Abacus Data?
Environics?
Nanos?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...
This just shows how out of touch most pundits are. Although not all of them are out of touch. They know the NDP 's support is increasing but they try to belittle the NDP gains in support. CBC are masters at this.
Poll surge raises election win prospect for Canada's leftist NDP
A surge in support for Canada's left-leaning New Democrats is forcing strategists and investors to consider a once unthinkable prospect - the party which has never governed federally might now win the October election.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) scored a stunning upset in Alberta's provincial election this month, ending four decades of Progressive Conservative rule. And after two years at a distant third in national polls it is now at or near the top.
The NDP still faces a formidable opponent in the governing Conservatives, who have held power for more than nine years. The party has a large war chest and Prime Minister Stephen Harper is an experienced campaigner.
But the fact that people are talking about the possibility of a federal NDP government is a shock, said University of Toronto political scientist Nelson Wiseman.
"I would have given 1,000 to one (odds) to anybody – four months ago – that the NDP wouldn't form a government," he said.
http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAKBN0OB0AX20150526
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The financial press. 
Wow! 
Some federal ridings at play for the NDP
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/at-a-glance-some-federal-ridings-...
Latest polling shows the NDP in first place, leading the Liberals by 4% who are now in last place.
NDP 30% - first place
Cons - 28%
Libs - 26% - last place
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...
But the fact that people are talking about the possibility of a federal NDP government is a shock, said University of Toronto political scientist Nelson Wiseman.
"I would have given 1,000 to one (odds) to anybody – four months ago – that the NDP wouldn't form a government," he said.
Too bad I don't know this guy, because I totally would have taken those odds.
The vast majority of the pundits in Canada listen to themselves only, and haven't got a clue what is happening on the ground across Canada. 99% of them are basically useless apart from just filling up space beside the ads.
Remember all their articles about how the NDP without Layton were done and would not be contenders in this year's federal election.
Remember all their articles saying the NDP would never ever win in Alberta.
Remember all their articles after the NDP won in Alberta saying that this NDP victory would not have a bearing across Canada
Remember all their articles now saying the NDP have peaked as the NDP are sweeping Quebec and leading in the latest poll across Canada with 31% support in Ontario.
Next time you hear a pundit pontificating throw his/her trash in the recycling bin where it belongs.
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5,800
Woo! Hoo!
Look how the NDP has been skyrocketing here over the past month.
Woo! Hoo!
Look how the NDP has been skyrocketing here over the past month.
My investments there have certainly done well. Glad I sold all of that Liberal stock when it was riding high! ;)
Here is the latest polling as well as the actual election results and the polling on the day before the writ was dropped for the previous three elections.
On January 24, 2006 the Liberals, the BQ, and the NDP had the numbers to form the government - why didn't they?
Popular Vote
Event / Cons / NDP / Libs / BQ / Grns
Poll (May 27 '15) / 28% / 30% / 26% / 5% / 8%
GE (May 2 '11) / 40% / 31% / 19% / 6% / 4%
Writ (Mar 26 '11) / 39% / 19% / 25% / 10% / 7%
GE (Oct 14 '08) / 38% / 18% / 26% 10% / 7%
Writ (Sep 7 '08) 38% / 15% / 26% / 10% / 11%
GE (Jan 23 '06) / 36% /17% / 30% / 10% / 5%
Writ (Nov 29 '05) / 31% / 18% / 30% / 15% / 5%
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5,900
Canada's mainstream press still just can't handle stating the fact that, according to the latest poll, the NDP is now in first place, ahead of the Conservatives, with the Liberals in the caboose in last place.
NDP - 30%
Cons - 28%
Libs - 26%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...
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The Trudeau Liberals are feeling shell-shocked now after seeing the results of the latest polls.
Follow
Frank Graves@VoiceOfFranky
@Dallyd3
I did over 3000 cases this week. Did random test with live interviewer and probability panel. All show that is not happening
It's hilarous to see the right-wing Liberal and Conservative freak-out this week over the NDP's rise to first place in Canada's latest national poll
NDP - 30%
Cons - 28%
Libs - 26%
Tom Mulcair says NDP's rise in polls behind latest threat over office expenses
NDP leader accuses other parties of trying to deflate buoyant NDP popularity
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tom-mulcair-says-ndp-s-rise-in-polls-beh...
Canada's mainstream press still just can't handle stating the fact that, according to the latest poll, the NDP is now in first place, ahead of the Conservatives, with the Liberals in the caboose in last place.
NDP - 30%
Cons - 28%
Libs - 26%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...
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6,000
What is the date of this post? Is this the Ekos poll from the 19th? If it is, isn't this kind of a mislleading post NR? Your link shows the Ekos 19 May post as the most recent. What poll is this; what's changed since the 19th?
Yeah, he's referring to the EKOS poll. So, nothing new.
_
Liberal CBC freak-out: the NDP is leading in the polls. What a smear job! 
They cannot handle the thought of an NDP government and their precious Liberals biting the dust once again in last place.
Polls show NDP in three-way tie but pollsters warn voters not yet engaged
http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/05/28/polls-show-ndp-in-three-way-...
Federal election 2015: A new type of horse race for Canada
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-may-26-2015-1.3087566...
If Conservative support is collapsing across the country, and the Liberals are running dead last as they are in the latest polling, support may be much better, than portrayed by the usual machinations of Canada's nonsensical mainstream press, for the surging Mulcair-led NDP.
COLUMN: Poll paints a volatile picture
Nationally, a series of polls suggest a tight three-way race between the Conservatives, the Liberals and the NDP. The trend lines in those polls favour the New Democrats, who have been rising in popularity while the others are slumping or flat-lining.
But the polling done in B.C. by Insights West on behalf of the environmental organization the Dogwood Initiative revealed something more startling: an apparent collapse of support for the Conservative party right across the board.
In four coastal ridings newly created by redistribution, the Conservative vote appears to be cut in half from what it was in the 2011 election.
Even if we attach some healthy skepticism to polls, a loss of this proportion may signal that the electorate is exhibiting some extreme volatility, which is not good news for a sitting government.
Before you dismiss all political polling out of hand, consider this: this polling by Insights West was done the old-fashioned way, using methods employed back when polling was generally very accurate, time and again.
The pollster, Mario Canseco, used telephones to reach a random sample of 301 voters in each riding and ensured his sample had a strong base of older voters (since they vote in much greater numbers than younger voters, so their participation in a poll is a key to make it as accurate as possible).
These were not online polls, or polls made up of panels of volunteers wanting to be part of a sample. Those kinds of polls, which are much, much cheaper than telephone polls, are all the rage these days and I’ve learned to become rather wary of them (interestingly, only the B.C. Liberal Party’s telephone polling correctly called the 2013 provincial election outcome).
If these riding polls showed a tight race between the parties, it would be hard to know what to read of them. That’s because if you take the 2011 voting results and “transpose” them over the new riding boundaries, it would show four tight races between the Conservatives and the NDP.
http://www.thenownews.com/opinion/column-poll-paints-a-volatile-picture-...
Surging NDP can learn from its mistakes in 1988
http://thechronicleherald.ca/opinion/1289526-tim-harper-surging-ndp-can-...
Headline which you will never ever see in Canada's mainstream press: For the second week in a row the Liberals are last in the polls.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...
A certain poster here likes to accuse the NDP of dishonesty.
Where is the honest mainstream press coverage talking about the Liberals tanking to last place in the polls?
A certain poster here likes to accuse the NDP of dishonesty.
Where is the honest mainstream press coverage talking about the Liberals tanking to last place in the polls?
You must always remember, N.R. that to hypocrites, hypocracy is their truth!
+
We need to hear from:
Environics - last June 30 '13
Angus Reid - last December 13 '14
Ipsos Reid - last April 7 '15
Abacus Data - last April 24 '15
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...
I expect Angus Reid will be reporting this week. I answered their online poll yesterday.
We need to hear from:
Environics - last June 30 '13
Angus Reid - last December 13 '14
Ipsos Reid - last April 7 '15
Abacus Data - last April 24 '15
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...
That would be great.
It will be interesting to see the Angus Reid changes, as it has been almost 6 months now since their last poll, and wondering if they too, like the 2 latest polls, both done by EKOS, will show the Liberals in last place.
Here is their most recent polling:
Angus Reid
Date / Cons / NDP / Libs
Dec 13 '14 / 34% / 22% / 34%
Sep 19 '14 / 30% / 22% / 36%
Jun 12 '14 / 31% / 27% / 30%
May 23 '14 / 31% / 25% / 30%
Apr 5' 14 / 32% / 26% / 30%
Mar 9' 14 / 28% / 27% / 33%
Polls show NDP near top but voters disengaged
http://www.hamiltonnews.com/news-story/5649752-polls-show-ndp-near-top-b...
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Ipsos: Cons 31 Liberals 31 NDP 30
http://globalnews.ca/news/2029234/ndps-national-surge-due-to-popularity-...
Quebec: NDP 41 Liberals 25 Bloc 20 Cons 11
Ontario: Cons 36 Libs 35 NDP 24
Ipsos: Cons 31 Liberals 31 NDP 30
http://globalnews.ca/news/2029234/ndps-national-surge-due-to-popularity-...
Quebec: NDP 41 Liberals 25 Bloc 20 Cons 11
Ontario: Cons 36 Libs 35 NDP 24
Encouraging news.
Libs really underestimated the anger in Canada about the Terror bill
Especially in Quebec where polls showed majority of support for the bill. Libs hoped to use it as a wedge issue against the NDP
But instead the NDP poll numbers have increased because of people opposition to it
That's the danger of watching the polls instead of doing the right thing. And probably why I'll never vote Liberal.
Libs really underestimated the anger in Canada about the Terror bill
Especially in Quebec where polls showed majority of support for the bill. Libs hoped to use it as a wedge issue against the NDP
But instead the NDP poll numbers have increased because of people opposition to it
Speaking of which, Angus Reid released a poll about the bill a week ago:
http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015.05.25-Bill-C-51.pdf
