Actually slightly better:
NDP. 31.3
Con. 29.2
Lib. 23.9
The Liberals are really on the skids. It will be interesting to see Judtin's personal approval ratings. He had been starting to run Behind his party and now looks like he may be dragging it down. It will be tough to put the shine back on the pony.
Well if this is a true trend, it may be that Justin sitting on policy may have been a mistake. It may be possible that people won't buy what he announces as policy when he actually does it. I would say this goes against some of the CW on here we've seen from some posters who felt all the Libs had to tell was tell Canadians what they planned and they were in. Not sure I'm right, but its starting to look like it. The horse may be out of the barn.
Last election, the Liberals fell to 18%. If that happens again, that could be enough votes to consolidate behind the NDP and give them their plurality.
Still, the NDP should still keep working on voter turnout, new voters, and the small r-reform Conservatives. All votes are in play.
With all the Trudeau fanfare since he became leader, i'm shocked that the Liberals have sunk this low. I can't imagine them falling to 18% again, but i'll gladly accept the trend!
Actually slightly better: NDP. 31.3 Con. 29.2 Lib. 23.9 The Liberals are really on the skids. It will be interesting to see Judtin's personal approval ratings. He had been starting to run Behind his party and now looks like he may be dragging it down. It will be tough to put the shine back on the pony.
Wow. Fabulous.
Well if this is a true trend, it may be that Justin sitting on policy may have been a mistake. It may be possible that people won't buy what he announces as policy when he actually does it. I would say this goes against some of the CW on here we've seen from some posters who felt all the Libs had to tell was tell Canadians what they planned and they were in. Not sure I'm right, but its starting to look like it. The horse may be out of the barn.
Agreed. It's like Ignatieff all over again. Fabulous promises of a superstar from Harvard raising everyone's expectations, then a thud when the expectations aren't lived up to. With Trudeau, seemed he was young and personable, with bold statements initially, then *thud*, the "hope and hard work" turned out to be some tax cuts and a means tested program (not even properly costed out), but otherwise the same old.
Once Ontario truly embraces the NDP as THE alternative to Harper, then both the Libs and Cons are going down. It's gonna happen.
Looking at the trends and the current momentum who wants to forecast what per cent of the polular vote will the Liberals get on Monday, October 19, 2015?
Popular Vote
Date / Event / Cons / NDP / Libs / Libs Change / Libs Cummulative Change
Jun 2 '15 / EKOS / 29% / 31% / 24% / Down 8% / Down 15%
Dec 12 '14 / EKOS / 321% / 20% / 32% / Down 7% / Down 7%
Jul 23 '14 / EKOS / 26% / 23% / 39%
2011 / GE / 40% / 31% / 19% / Down 7% / Down 22%
2008 / GE / 38% / 18% / 26% / Down 4% / Down 15%
2006 / GE / 40% / 18% / 30% / Down 7% / Down 11%
2004 / GE / 30% / 16% / 37% / Down 4% / Down 4%
2000 / GE / 38% / 9% / 41% /
Don't have an ipolitics subscription, but here's the breakdown:
NDP - 31
CPC - 29
LPC - 24.
Wow.
Wow, indeed!
Now watch the attack ads start coming ad nauseum!
Canada's left-leaning NDP takes lead heading into October election
http://ca.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idCAKBN0OL1YH20150605
Canada's left-leaning NDP takes lead heading into October election
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/canadas-left-gains-support-heading-october-ele...
Forum, seeing as some of its executives are running for the Liberals, is waiting to publish a poll showing the Liberals doing well. They may have to wait a long time, eh!
While those of here know about the current strength of the NDP in the polls recently, don't think for one second the other two parties are going to relent and fold their tents. The MSP will publish anything whatsoever that is an attack on the NDP. Up until now the attacks have been mild because most people believed in the bullshit political reporting of the CBC, Toronto Star, National Post, Globe and Mail, Post Media and Sun Media, and assumed it would be showdown between Harper and Trudeau. Well they were right about that except they thought the showdown would be over first place, and it now appears that the showdown between the Libs and the Cons will be over last place.
Here's an example of the utter nonsense from a political loser that we will see much more of as we approach October 19:
http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/letters/liberals-undergoing-a-remar...
What's the letter writter going to say when the Tories finally clue in and reaim at the NDP? Right now the Tories are holding back, waiting to see if this is just a fluke, its why pollsters being slow to release is actually a good thing, its drags things out which gives Mulcair time to consolidate his popularity, while the Tories continue to spend money on attack ads aimed at Trudeau, the slow drip buys Mulcair more time.
Here's an example of the utter nonsense from a political loser that we will see much more of as we approach October 19:
http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/letters/liberals-undergoing-a-remar...
Here's some nonsense from the above column:
Harper isn’t wasting a single dollar from his war chest to slyly undermine Thomas Mulcair. Mulcair and the NDP do not represent a threat to the Harper Conservatives.
Liberal supporter Mr. McKivett won't be so cocky in a week or two, I predict.
Here's an example of the utter nonsense from a political loser that we will see much more of as we approach October 19:
http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/letters/liberals-undergoing-a-remar...
Here's some nonsense from the above column:
Harper isn’t wasting a single dollar from his war chest to slyly undermine Thomas Mulcair. Mulcair and the NDP do not represent a threat to the Harper Conservatives.Liberal supporter Mr. McKivett won't be so cocky in a week or two, I predict.
Conservatives are not yet seeing the potential for the NDP to take their voters. For now they think that the NDP can only take Liberals and are trying to do what they can to take more Liebrals than the NDP (and failing). Once they realize that some of their own vote is going stright to the NDP they will realize that the Liebral party is not a firewall between them and the will target the NDP.
Most voters not ideological so going from CPC to NDP is possible.
I agree Sean. I also feel that the Cons may feel that to give the NDP credibility through attacks is dangerous, given what happened in Alberta.
The EKOS numbers are Libs 24%, Cons 29%, NDP 31% (#s rounded off). If the Libs went down to 20%, and the Cons went up to 30% and the NDP up to 34% (IE, the NDP pick up more of the crumbling Lib pie than the Cons do), then how would the Cons respond? Would they continue to ignore the NDP, or would they switch gears? It'll be interesting to see.
The Tory tendency to be clumped in "pockets of support" is compensated for by the lower number of voters per riding in rural areas. I think when you factor that in, it is a wash. It will take political forces stronger than what we have seen federally to dislodge Tories from said pockets of support.
If there is a bloom for the NDP in Ontario, they can pick up urban seats in the smaller towns. I have a friend working for the NDP in Oshawa and they are very confident there. If you see people in places like Barrie, Owen Sound, Kitchener, Guelph saying things are going well, it is really all over for the Tories and the Liberals.
Easy there big fella. We are a very long way from the final stretch.
I agree Sean. I also feel that the Cons may feel that to give the NDP credibility through attacks is dangerous, given what happened in Alberta.
The EKOS numbers are Libs 24%, Cons 29%, NDP 31% (#s rounded off). If the Libs went down to 20%, and the Cons went up to 30% and the NDP up to 34% (IE, the NDP pick up more of the crumbling Lib pie than the Cons do), then how would the Cons respond? Would they continue to ignore the NDP, or would they switch gears? It'll be interesting to see.
I do not disagree with this. In fact it is a difficult challenge for the Conservatives to decide when to respond to the NDP popularity. Too early can boost the NDP further -- too late will make the response too weak.
It is a problem for them.
This is what Liberal blogs do, just like 308, when the NDP soars in the polls.
http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2015/06/alternate-history-ah-what-if-to...
Seems like more Liberal and Conservative partisans are retreating to a fantasy world. Happy times.
This is dated December 14, 2014
It was Mulcair's hard-working efforts day in day-out in the House that has paid off the NDP. Liberals with their sycophants in the mainstream press ridiculed the NDP approach but he who laughs last, laughs best.
Polls show federal race is tightening ... but can't explain why
In fact, a look at months of results from six different pollsters suggests Trudeau's Liberals remain imperviously buoyant, Harper's Tories have seen only marginal gains despite a number of issues breaking their way, and NDP fortunes are stalled, notwithstanding Mulcair's widely lauded parliamentary performance.
In the past week alone, national polls from recognized opinion surveyors have placed Liberal support as high as 41 per cent (Forum Research) and as low as 32 per cent (EKOS), Conservative support from 33 to 31 per cent and NDP support at 19 (Leger), 20 (Forum) and 17 per cent (EKOS).
Back in September, before an event-packed fall that supposedly moved the public opinion dial, Liberals polled as high as 38 per cent (Abacus and Ipsos Reid), Conservatives were between 30 and 31 per cent and New Democrats between 21 and 23.
ThreeHundredEight.com, which aggregates political polling, says the average of all public polls put Liberal support last week at 36 per cent, Conservatives at 32 and the NDP at 20. In September, those averages were 38-30-22.
"It's important not to make too much of relatively small movements in the polls," says Paul Adams, a former parliamentary reporter and pollster who now teaches journalism at Carleton University in Ottawa.
Nonetheless, Adams says by looking across the various polls conducted since the summer, "the race looks significantly tighter than it has."
It's always easy to construct a narrative around why that might be, he added -- but pundits and pollsters should be careful with such storylines.
The narrative building in Ottawa is that the Conservatives pulled out of a long malaise in October, spurred by Prime Minister Stephen Harper's tough words for Russia's Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, his decision to send fighter jets to Iraq and the shocking terror attacks on Canadian soil.
Toss in some positive economic numbers and a suite of family-oriented, voter-friendly tax measures and it becomes clear the prime minister spent much of the fall political season playing the game his way, on familiar home soil.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/polls-show-federal-race-is-tightening-but...
Interesting that the Sun publicizing the latest EKOS poll but the CBC, the Toronto Star, and so many other mainstream media won't.
NDP takes lead heading into October election
http://www.torontosun.com/2015/06/06/ndp-takes-lead-heading-into-october...
Interesting that the Sun is publicizing the latest EKOS poll but the CBC, the Toronto Star, and so many other mainstream media won't.
NDP takes lead heading into October election
http://www.torontosun.com/2015/06/06/ndp-takes-lead-heading-into-october...
UBC Stock Market
Seat Share
Last Price
Cons - $35.50
NDP - $33.99
Libs - $25.00
I agree Sean. I also feel that the Cons may feel that to give the NDP credibility through attacks is dangerous, given what happened in Alberta.
The EKOS numbers are Libs 24%, Cons 29%, NDP 31% (#s rounded off). If the Libs went down to 20%, and the Cons went up to 30% and the NDP up to 34% (IE, the NDP pick up more of the crumbling Lib pie than the Cons do), then how would the Cons respond? Would they continue to ignore the NDP, or would they switch gears? It'll be interesting to see.
I do not disagree with this. In fact it is a difficult challenge for the Conservatives to decide when to respond to the NDP popularity. Too early can boost the NDP further -- too late will make the response too weak.
It is a problem for them.
Yes. I predict that even if the Libs continue to slide a bit as I've described, that the Cons will continue to attack Trudeau and not the NDP. But behind the scenes they will try to have Big Business and Big Oil wage war on the Alberta NDP, hoping that this will mute a too high rise in the federal NDP's fortunes (there will be plenty of unfounded stories about the failings of Alberta due to the NDP). If this fails and the Liberals sink to 15% and the NDP approach the magic 39% with the Cons stuck at 30% or less, then both the Liberals and Conservatives will wage full out war on the NDP, including irrelevant stories from years past (like what we saw with the Layton massage story).
I told you guys, Justin Trudeau IT'S OVER!
I told you guys, Justin Trudeau IT'S OVER!
Yes. And also, Stephen Harper IT'S OVER! It's NDP time.
I told you guys, Justin Trudeau IT'S OVER!
Yes. And also, Stephen Harper IT'S OVER! It's NDP time.
You just wrote three weeks ago
"It's a bit early to predict the demise of the Liberals"
So now are you officially saying "IT'S OVER" for the Liberals?
I'm optimistically agreeing with you that the right-wing Liberals will not win and I also feel the right-wing Conservatives will lose the next election to the NDP.
So which pollsters do you think are herding in Canada?
Polling Is Getting Harder, But It’s A Vital Check On Power
This may not be a coincidence. The views of pollsters, polling aggregators and pundits may feed back upon one another, even or perhaps especially when they’re incorrect. (When to expect a surprise? When no one expects one.) In fact, there’s increasing evidence of a pollster phenomenon known as “herding.” Toward the end of a campaign, pollsters’ results often fall artificially in line with one another as the conventional wisdom forms about the race. In some cases, pollsters have admitted to suppressing polls they deem to be outliers but that would have turned out to be just right. The U.K. pollster Survation, for instance, declined to release a poll showing Conservatives ahead of Labour by 6 points — about the actual margin of victory — because the results seemed “so ‘out of line’ with all the polling,” the company later disclosed. And in the U.S. last year, at least two polling firms declined to publish surveys showing a tight Senate race in Virginia, which in the end was decided by only 18,000 votes in what was almost a historic upset.
There was a lot of discussion about herding at AAPOR. It’s something that probably always has gone on, to some extent. On the eve of an election, if pollsters have one turnout model that shows a result right in line with the FiveThirtyEight or Real Clear Politics average and another showing a “surprising” result, they may not be eager to risk their reputation by publishing the “outlier.”6 But there’s more potential for herding as the fundamentals of polling deteriorate and as polling becomes more technique- and assumption-driven.
Date / Event / Cons / NDP / Libs
May '11 / GE / 40% / 31% / 19%
Jun '15 / EKOS / 29% / 31% / 24%
Jun '15 / Diff / Dn 11% / Same / Up 5%
The suspence is killing me. Hopefully it's good news. Here's a former CRA poll: http://cra.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/15-1-Federal-Press-Release-1567... It showed the Liberals significantly ahead. So, likely either the Cons or NDP are catching up. Be interesting to see.
The MSM can start reporting polls again now that Canada's least reliable pollster, Forum, has the Liberals out in front again:
Lib 32
Con 31
NDP 28
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Federal%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2006%2005)%20Forum%20Research.pdf
But before anyone panics let's look at the cross-tabs:
Approval ratings:
Mulcair: +46 -27
Harper: +33 -59
Trudeau: +38 -40
Forum's Quebec numbers are bizarre, utterly inconsitent with other recent polling:
Lib 34 (vs 17 in EKOS and 25 in CROP)
NDP 24 (vs 38 in EKOS and 42 in CROP)
Con 23 (vs 16 in EKOS and 15 in CROP)
BQ 13 (vs 20 in EKOS and 13 in CROP)
Forum's other regionals are reasonably consistent with other pollsters but its Quebec numbers are highly suspect. Substitute the Quebec numbers from EKOS or CROP and you will get the NDP back in the lead, or at least tied with the Cons and the Liberals back in third.
Still, I can see the headlines in the Star: "Liberals back in first place."
Saw one tweet that polls due today (Monday) in Atlantic Canada are shifting.
Warren Kinsella said he doesn't believe the polling that shows the Liberals ahead with 50% support
He says he doesn't believe those numbers AT ALL. That they are just too inflated.
Hmm. Disappointing.
+
+
Saw one tweet that polls due today (Monday) in Atlantic Canada are shifting.
https://twitter.com/DonMillsCRA/status/607529546959699969
Significant shifts in voting intentions across Atlantic Canada this quarter #cdnpoli #nlpoli #nspoli #nbpoli #peipoli NL /PEI results Monday
That's the Newfoundland and PEI provincial parties polling results. They will release polling of the federal parties in the region on Wednesday. I suspect it will be consistent with other polls, in that it will show the Liberals ahead in the Atlantic region.
Liberals significantly ahead of the NDP in Quebec? Hmmm -- would need to see more polls to believe this.
Looks like this just might be the 1 in 20
By the way-- I think the NDP is well positioned if theya re withing 5 points of the leader at the start of the campaign. So I am not worried if the NDP is first or third at the campaign start so long as the party is in reach. Polls showing the NDP not in the lead might be tactically better at this moment. In any case the party is about where it needs to be.
There are some very very weird inconsistencies in the Forum numbers in Quebec - IF the Liberals were actually on some sort of inexplicable upswing in Quebec, you would expect to see other numbers move - such as leader approval - but Trudeau's approve/disapprove numbers in this polls are just as dismal in Quebec as they were a month ago when the Liberals were way back - and Mulcair's approval numbers are just as stratospehrically high in Quebec as they were a month ago as well! Makes no sense at all.
Yeah, the forum poll results in Quebec are likely an error. But the point is that polls are volatile, and the voters are hungry for change. Acting entitled will bite you in the ass. Treat this like a three way race and keep working.
Toronto Star ignores all the other polls showing the Liberals in last place and now this Forum outlier poll arrives and guess what: miracle of miracles, the Toronto Star now has a poll tracker showing Liberals in the lead. Who knew! 
However if you look at the chart it shows the Cons have gone up from 28% to 31%, the NDP have gone up from 18% to 28%, but the Liberals have gone down from 45% to 32%
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/06/08/federal-poll-tracker-which...
Liblogs, bye bye, zzzzz
Warren Kinsella got annoyed not because the NDP qouted him, but because the NDP called his blog a website.
