tt,
Because of the Liberal media fog, please give us your assessment of what is actually changing in Ontario.
Thanks.
Combination of C51 and the negative ads Harper has been putting saying Justin is not ready for Prime Time.
Those Conservative paid ads are only helping the NDP, not the Cons.
Mulcair should send Harper a thank you letter for spending millions of CPC dollars on helping Mulcair to become Prime Minister. :-)
It keeps getting better for the NDP.
In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1268 Canadian voters, well more than a third will vote NDP if a federal election were held today (36%), while just more than a quarter would vote either Liberal or Conservative (28% each). This represents a slight increase for the NDP since last week (June 16 - 34%) and relative stability for the other two parties. The Green Party is reduced to very few votes (2%), as is the Bloc Quebecois (5%) or other parties (1%). ...
NDP Minority seen If these results are projected up to a 338 seat House of Commons, the NDP would take 149, 21 short of a majority, but up 20 since last week, while the Conservatives would take 116 and the Liberals would be limited to 65 seats. The Bloquistes would take 3 seats and the Green Party would keep their leader’s seat.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/305/nearing-majority-with-stronghold-...
It must be Canadawide then because there is no question the "not ready nice hair ads" have been having a similiar effect in BC.
There also is another huge issue on the horizon for Harper this summer in BC at least and maybe else where as well, that could put Harper right over the edge, and totally out of contention. It's called global warming and CBC TV Newsworld have been discussing it all day long.
tt,
Because of the Liberal media fog, please give us your assessment of what is actually changing in Ontario.
Thanks.
Combination of C51 and the negative ads Harper has been putting saying Justin is not ready for Prime Time.
Those Conservative paid ads are only helping the NDP, not the Cons.
Environics: NDP 30 Libs 28 Cons 28 Bloc 6 Greens 5
http://assets.nationalnewswatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Environic...
Mulcair #NDP would still be leading even if *every* Con/Lib swing voter went for the Liberals. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/305/nearing-majority-with-stronghold-in-bc …
So Pondering how can you say it is not OVER for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals?
You know it. I know it, everyone on this board knows it,
You do realize that the Liberals and Conservatives are tied for second. Maybe we should say Stephen Harper IT'S OVER?
Trudeau is polling above Michael Ignatieff's numbers. The Liberals are going to gain seats. What exactly is "over" for the Liberals?
If you really want to get down to it we should be saying Elizabeth May its OVER :-p
If you really want to get down to it we should be saying Elizabeth May its OVER :-p
If you really want to get down to it we should be saying Elizabeth May its OVER :-p
Plus an Ipsos poll:
http://globalnews.ca/news/2075610/prime-minister-tom-mulcair-new-seat-pr...
Plus an Ipsos poll:
http://globalnews.ca/news/2075610/prime-minister-tom-mulcair-new-seat-pr...
Very interesting breakdown. Somewhere in the more reasonable realm too, without any huge imbalances in any region or province.
The polls are coming in fast and furious. It was a busy day today as three pollsters released polls and EKOS usually releases a poll on Fridays.
Popular Vote Projections
Pollster / Date / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Grn /
GE / May 2 '11 / 31% / 40% / 19% / 6% / 4%
Forum / Jun 23 '15 / 36% / 28% / 28% / 5% / 2% - NDP consolidates hold on first place
Ipsos Reid / Jun 23 '15 / 35% / 28% / 29% / 6% / 2% - NDP surges 5% in past month, gains 7% on Liberals in past month
Environics / Jun 18 '15 / 30% / 28% / 28% / 6% / 7% - NDP surges 6%, gains 12% on Liberals
EKOS / Jun 16 '15 / 30% / 29% / 25% - anti Conservative, usuaully supports Liberals
Forum / Jun 16 '15 / 34% / 28% / 26% -
EKOS / Jun 9 '15 / 34% / 27% / 23% / 5% / 7% - Phenomenal NDP support as both Cons & Libs drop
Angus Reid / Jun 7 '15 / 36% / 33% / 23% / 4% / 4% / - huge NDP surge from one of Canada's most accurate pollsters
Party Order Re-Jigged
Pollster / Date / Cons / NDP / Libs / BQ / Grn /
GE / May 2 '11 / 40% / 31% / 19% / 6% / 4%
Forum / May 5 '15 / 31% / 28% / 32% - Outlier or Worse
EKOS / Jun 2 '15 / 29% / 31% / 24% / 4% / 7% - NDP now leads Liberals by 7%, Liberals dropping like a stone
Nanos / May 29 '15 / 32% / 30% / 29% - Liberals again in last place
308 / Jun 3 '15 / 31% / 28% / 29% / 4% / 6% - NDP jumps 4% since May 15 '15
Abacus Data / Jun 2 '15 / 31% / 28% / 28% / 4% / 7% - NDP jumps 4% in support since April 24 '15
Ipsos Reid / May 29 '15 / 31% / 30% / 31% / 4% / 4% - NDP surges in support
EKOS / May 26 '15 / 30% / 29% / 27% / 4% / 8% / - Liberals last for second week in a row (but ahead of Greens and the BQ)
EKOS / May 19 '15 / 28% / 30% / 26% / 8% / 5% - NDP leads in the polls
Nanos / May 14 '15 / 33% / 25% / 31% / 4% / 5% - Probably an outlier
Robbins / May 14 '15 / 27% / 33% / 33% / 4% / 5% - Credibility Issues
Forum / May 15 '15 / 31% / 30% / 31% / 3% / 4% -
308 / May 15 '15 / 32% / 24% / 30% / 4% / 8% - leans Liberal
EKOS / May 12 '15 / 30% / 29% / 27% / 4% / 8% - anti Conservative, usually supports Liberal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...
----------------
14,000
So that's it for this week in polling.
It was not too very long ago the mainstream press were talking about the Liberals winning the next election. Now the same mainstream press are talking about the NDP winning the next election. A lot can happen between now and then, but it must be encouraging for some of the nervous nelly NDP supporters who had concerns about Mulcair's leadership, to see the recent polls and read the political headlines this week. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...
Mulcair needs to throw away the suit and tie, and put his jeans on - it's summertime.
Liberal supporters for some reason don't like Ipsos-Reid, although my research has shown them to be one of Canada's most accurate pollsters in federal elections.
Orange Crush Spreads as Federal NDP (35%, + 5) Surges to Take Lead Over Tied Liberals (29%, -2) and Conservatives (28%, -3)Voters Taking Hard Look at Mulcair NDP as they now Lead in Quebec, Prairies and British Columbia, in Three-Way Tie in Ontario and Trailing by Only Six Points in Alberta
NDP Making Gains in Key Battlegrounds…
The key to electoral victory in Canada is to win the most seats in the most populous regions of the country and the poll reveals that the NDP is winning – or competitive – in each of the those regions:
-----------------------
Harper's Name Presence Helps his Party’s Fortunes While Mulcair’s and Trudeau’s for Theirs is a Wash…
In this poll of 2000 Canadians, one half of the respondents received the vote choice question with the leader’s name mentioned after the party name, and the other half received the party name only. This allows Ipsos to measure the impact that the presence of a party leader has on the popular support of the party. While the presence of Stephen Harper’s name appears to help the performance of his party in the poll, the presence of both Mulcair and Trudeau did not improve their party’s performance. The chart below outlines these differences:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6899
The Toronto Star has been hiding its Poll Tracker these days. I wonder why! 
If you look at the The Star they've been doing everything they can to save Trudeaumania deseperately, its pathetic they pretend they are anything other then the Liberal Party Oragan.
And now it's summertime.
NDP surging in Canadian federal polls and leading election race
Just four months from an expected federal election in October, the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) is widening its lead over the Conservatives and Liberals, according to a new Forum poll.
--------------
“The movement in the NDP’s favour is slow, but it’s gathering momentum. They’re firmly in first in Quebec and B.C. and at parity in Ontario, which are three of the four biggest provinces.”In spite of having a young new leader, Justin Trudeau, the popularity of the Liberal party has fallen from a peak in July of 2014 when it was 10 points ahead of the Conservatives and the NDP came in third. Among several possible mistakes made by Trudeau are his support for the Conservative anti-terrorism bill, even without any amendments.
http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/politics/ndp-surging-in-federal-polls...
Mulcair needs to throw away the suit and tie, and put his jeans on - it's summertime.
Liberal supporters for some reason don't like Ipsos-Reid, although my research has shown them to be one of Canada's most accurate pollsters in federal elections.
Orange Crush Spreads as Federal NDP (35%, + 5) Surges to Take Lead Over Tied Liberals (29%, -2) and Conservatives (28%, -3)Voters Taking Hard Look at Mulcair NDP as they now Lead in Quebec, Prairies and British Columbia, in Three-Way Tie in Ontario and Trailing by Only Six Points in Alberta
NDP Making Gains in Key Battlegrounds…
The key to electoral victory in Canada is to win the most seats in the most populous regions of the country and the poll reveals that the NDP is winning – or competitive – in each of the those regions:
- In Ontario, a three-way statistical tie has emerged among the Liberals (34%), Conservatives (33%) and NDP (31%), while the Green Party (2%) trails.
- In Quebec, the NDP (41%) has a sizeable lead over the Liberals (23%), Bloc (22%), and Conservatives (13%).
- In British Columbia, the NDP (40%) has opened a significant lead over the Conservatives (30%), Liberals (24%) and the Green Party (6%).
- In Alberta, the Conservative (43%) lead over the NDP (37%) has shrunk to just six points with the Liberals (18%) and Greens (2%) well back.
- In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the NDP (37%) and Liberals (36%) are competing for the lead, while the Conservatives (25%) are falling behind, and the Green Party trails (2%).
- In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (51%) have a commanding lead over the Tories (25%), NDP (21%) and Green Party (3%), but there are very few seats for the Liberals to pick up in this region.
-----------------------
Harper's Name Presence Helps his Party’s Fortunes While Mulcair’s and Trudeau’s for Theirs is a Wash…
In this poll of 2000 Canadians, one half of the respondents received the vote choice question with the leader’s name mentioned after the party name, and the other half received the party name only. This allows Ipsos to measure the impact that the presence of a party leader has on the popular support of the party. While the presence of Stephen Harper’s name appears to help the performance of his party in the poll, the presence of both Mulcair and Trudeau did not improve their party’s performance. The chart below outlines these differences:
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6899
As I have been saying -- the Liberals are better positionned than the Conservatives. In the Tooclosetocall simulator you get 140 NDO 102 Liberal and 91 Conservatives.
The Conservatives would end up with 4 in Atlantic; 4 in Quebec; 45 in Ontario; 3 in the prairies !!!; 24 in Alberta and 10 in BC
Liberals would have 25 in Atlantic Canada (more than the CPC keep in Alberta); 11 in Quebec (almost tripple the CPC); 48 in Ontario (3 more than the CPC); 9 in the prairies (triple the CPC) and 8 in BC (just 2 less than the CPC)
The NDP at 140 would be in a strong position.
Trudeau would lead the opposition.
NDP has now lead in the last 7 polls, and the NDP leads in eight of the last nine polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...
Looking at the polls - C51 anyone?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...
NDP has now lead in the last 7 polls, and the NDP leads in eight of the last nine polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...
Last 4 also have the Conservatives in third or tied for third.
The trend against the Conservatives in the last little bit is stronger than against the Liberals.
No I dont think C 51 can get that much credit. And continuing spats of terrorists attacks like last week can change the mood in some voters on it. Its going to be on the economy which isnt doing well. We need that full economic policy platform. Seems to me the NDP would have the entire platform out by now but I get the sense of rolling out policy on a steady basis has stopped...
Trudeau voting for C51 has killed any hope of the voters looking to Liberals as a progressive option. Rght-wing voters can decide which of the two right-wing parties the Liberals or Conservatives they want to support in their attempt to halt the leading NDP.
I wonder what's Centrist's assessment of the BC ridings is now?
Is Northern Gateway B.C.’s National Energy Program?
quote:
The constitution requires the government consult First Nations groups on projects like Northern Gateway. When infrastructure is set to cross unceded territory – lands over which Indigenous communities assert collective ownership – the legal implications become all the more complicated.
Meanwhile Alberta’s new premier, Rachel Notley, says she won’t fight for it. As of Enbridge’s last filing with the National Energy Board, not a single oil producer will sign a firm shipping contract.
But the project’s not dead yet. And, ultimately, it’s the federal government that has the power to approve or deny infrastructure projects like pipelines.
The courts may, or may not, stop construction, but as with the NEP, it’s political pressure on lawmakers that will prove decisive. There are early signs that a shift like this may already be afoot. Enbridge has become a liability for Conservative candidates in every B.C. riding touching salt water. Seat projections by ThreeHundredEight.com have the Conservatives losing seven of their 21 B.C. incumbents, while being shut out of six new ridings created by redistribution.
Party whip John Duncan is ten points behind the NDP in his northern Vancouver Island constituency, according to a telephone poll of 300 local voters conducted by Insights West for Dogwood Initiative. When respondents were asked who they voted for in 2011, the numbers lined up with actual results. But as many as three in five former Tories in coastal ridings now say they plan to vote for other parties.
At the same time, a majority of 2011 Conservative supporters report disagreement with the federal government’s approach on oil tankers. Knock on doors anywhere from Comox to Deep Cove and the pattern becomes clear.
The desire for representation on this issue in Ottawa has British Columbians looking to opposition politicians, all of whom have promised to cancel Northern Gateway if they form government. But citizens are also counting on First Nations to defend local interests.
This week a fundraising drive has people across the province organizing events to help cover court costs for seven of the First Nations challenging the project approval. Called “Pull Together,” the campaign has raised more than $450,000 so far.
This alignment between First Nations and British Columbians is coalescing into a regional political movement with the potential to become as powerful as Reform twenty years ago in Alberta. Sooner or later, Enbridge will be defeated in B.C. The only question is whether the current government goes down with it.
edit
https://dogwoodinitiative.org/blog/Northern-Gateway-BCs-National-Energy-...
I recall Centrist dismissing me when I predicted Vancouver Centre would go NDP, and I understand where he was coming from. After the unprecedented upheaval of 2011, a lot of serious-minded commentators naturally expected a return to the staus quo to some degree or another. My prediction was based a whole different set of assumptions. Namely that this election will be even more unprecedented than the last, and that status quo parameters of what's likely or unlikely aren't applicable.
This is also why seat projections are useless for the coming election. When the electorate shifts this dramatically, there's no way to really predict where and who the shifts will be coming from. Old models don't apply.
Centrist usually has a good handle of what is happening in BC, and it was Centrist that was warning us of the interest on Vancouver Island with the Greens.
As you say however there has been some major significant changes recently.
Vancouver Centre - 2011 Tr
Cons - 26.1%
NDP - 26.4%
Libs - 31%
Grns - 15.1%
- tip of the hat to punditsguide.ca for the stats
The Green candidate Lisa Barrett ran in West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast in 1997 and got 4.6% of the vote.
She lives on Bowen Island and believes in pollution as she is a flight attendant who contributes to global warming by spewing GHS every day she is at work,
as opposed to
NDP candidate Constance Barnes who travels around on her bicycle like Jack Layton did. Constance indeed walks or rides the talk.
Latest poll: - Jun 23, 2015
NDP Surge Continues, Forum Poll Suggests
“The movement in the NDP’s favour is slow, but it’s gathering momentum,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff in a release. “They’re firmly in first in Quebec and B.C. and at parity in Ontario, which are three of the four biggest provinces.”
Ontario, B.C., and Quebec are seat-rich battlegrounds that will be targeted by all parties in the next federal election.
Results also project a minority NDP government — 21 seats short of a majority. It’s a prediction that bumps the party up 20 seats since last week.
“Even in the expectation of victory, which tends to be a lagging measure, we see the NDP have caught up to the Conservatives,” said Bozinoff.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/06/25/ndp-forum-poll_n_7663352.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...
The Green candidate Lisa Barrett ran in West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast in 1997 and got 4.6% of the vote.
She lives on Bowen Island and believes in pollution as she is a flight attendant who contributes to global warming by spewing GHS every day she is at work,
That's a cheap shot
I understand that Abacus will be releasing a federal voting intention poll soon, perhaps today, for Newfoundland and Labrador. Its provincial poll, released last week showed the NDP up from 9% to 25% in a few months. It will be interesting to see if the federal NDP is continuing to close the gap with the Liberals as other Atlantic polls have shown.
Yeah, I'm kind of sick of attacking someone on their environmental record because they depend on fossil fuels like everyone else. This is a systemic problem that cannot be solved by individual action.
If I were a Liberal supporter I would be concerned about the latest Angus Reid poll showing the Liberals with only 23% support in the popular vote. As well the latest EKOS poll shows the Liberals with only 25% support.
If you want to find out the political mood of a place, look at its #*poli hastags in Twitter. Go on Tweetdeck and open a column and the hashtag will come up kind of like an old IRC channel. So Canada is #cdnpoli, which runs between 1-2 tweets per second. Once you go on a channel, people will stick other hashtags in so you can follow those, or make up new ones or do whatever you like. I know that #bcpoli is a place, #abpoli, #onpoli, #polqc, and all the party labels like #NDP, #BQ etc. #politics is the US generally.
If a psychopathic little troll starts calling you names, just respond with the hashtags of your favorite channels. They will pay. They will pay, because there will always be one of your friends who has nothing else to do but make them pay. Then block them. It is no embarrassment to you at all, because their insults are on the twitter forever.
On the other hand, if you like to label people because of what they said, you will pay as well. Twitter people don't like being called names.
twitter is interesting, but twitter is not hugely accurate when it comes to finding out the political mood of a place, I feel. For instance, when I checked #TOpoli during the municipal election, from the tweets there it seemed that Olivia Chow and John Tory were neck and neck, with Ari Goldkind close behind, and Doug Ford way behind. Obviously, this was not accurate. Tory was first, Ford second, Chow third, and Goldkind way back in a distant fourth. But, Ford did not have many supporters who tweeted, whereas Goldkind did.
You have to clear the psychopaths out and after a couple of days you get a better sense.
Twitter is a slightly less toxic version of what happens in the comment threads on the newspapers. There's some neutral news and commentary, but still a lot of partisan bullshit. It's where you can see the "groupthink" happening among the different parties.
Twitter is a slightly less toxic version of what happens in the comment threads on the newspapers. There's some neutral news and commentary, but still a lot of partisan bullshit. It's where you can see the "groupthink" happening among the different parties.
My view is that twitter is a giant circle-jerk where the participants somehow think their twitterverse is an accurate subsample of the world at large, rather than the echo chamber it is.
Twitter is 100% an echo chamber. There's value in knowing what echo they're trying to stir up. But not much else.
From 308:
The NDP appears to have made its gains at the expense of the Liberals in most parts of the country, and are now starting to eat into Conservative support.
The Liberals will not regain their high polling in Quebec or BC. People in Ontario are beginning to realize this, and I predict the Liberal campaign will start to falter further in Ontario too. Any further Trudeau campaign baubles will not turn the tide, and in fact will instead solidify the perception that they're not a serious alternative. The quote above shows that even the Cons are losing voters to the NDP, meaning that those who aren't particularly ideological but simply want a competent change are turning to the NDP.
Once Ontario truly embraces the NDP, it's majority time.
Once Ontario truly embraces the NDP, it's majority time.
Definitely, but that will be a long, uphill struggle. Some of the more urban ridings around the vote-rich GTA (excluding the 905) are Liberal strongholds, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Wynne & Co lending some clandestine support. The north should be an orange sweep, and it is most likely that we'll start seeing some strong two-way races in SW Ontario between the Cons and NDP. If anything, I'm looking at the race in London West which has been known to be a bit of a bellwethe - and it looks like Ed the Minister of State for Policy-Based Science is losing ground, even with the cabinet post (and the riding did vote NDP provincially, which may point to some slight political alignment with London-Fanshawe?).
If you interact with a diverse group of people -- twitter can be more than an echo chamber.
Once Ontario truly embraces the NDP, it's majority time.
Definitely, but that will be a long, uphill struggle. Some of the more urban ridings around the vote-rich GTA (excluding the 905) are Liberal strongholds, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Wynne & Co lending some clandestine support. The north should be an orange sweep, and it is most likely that we'll start seeing some strong two-way races in SW Ontario between the Cons and NDP. If anything, I'm looking at the race in London West which has been known to be a bit of a bellwethe - and it looks like Ed the Minister of State for Policy-Based Science is losing ground, even with the cabinet post (and the riding did vote NDP provincially, which may point to some slight political alignment with London-Fanshawe?).
That London West voted NDP provincially is really more of a byelection-consolidation carryover (much like Kitchener-Waterloo)--though it was never as "out of reach" as a lot of people claimed (and still isn't, federally speaking).
Come to think of it, if London West ought to be on radar, so should London North Centre, despite "conventional wisdom" reserving that one for the Liberals. (That it stayed provincially Liberal last year was more of a Deb Matthews incumbency thing--and even so, she only won with 36% with the second-place NDP 5 1/2 points behind.)
Once Ontario truly embraces the NDP, it's majority time.
Definitely, but that will be a long, uphill struggle. Some of the more urban ridings around the vote-rich GTA (excluding the 905) are Liberal strongholds, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Wynne & Co lending some clandestine support. The north should be an orange sweep, and it is most likely that we'll start seeing some strong two-way races in SW Ontario between the Cons and NDP. If anything, I'm looking at the race in London West which has been known to be a bit of a bellwethe - and it looks like Ed the Minister of State for Policy-Based Science is losing ground, even with the cabinet post (and the riding did vote NDP provincially, which may point to some slight political alignment with London-Fanshawe?).
I think the best kind of "clandestine" support Kathleen Wynne might provide her federal cousins is making herself invisible to Ontario voters.
Although it seems that the Liberal press corps is going to try and rev up the "Liberals are more progressive than the NDP" line (Trudeau was trying to sell this to the Star editorial board in an interview) for the next federal election given its great success in the last provincial election, I don't think anyone is going to buy that again.
I think the best kind of "clandestine" support Kathleen Wynne might provide her federal cousins is making herself invisible to Ontario voters.
Although it seems that the Liberal press corps is going to try and rev up the "Liberals are more progressive than the NDP" line (Trudeau was trying to sell this to the Star editorial board in an interview) for the next federal election given its great success in the last provincial election, I don't think anyone is going to buy that again.
Agreed. From what I've seen, Wynne has managed to annoy both blue and orange Liberals.
From the looks of this you should be feeling as confident as the Liberals did way back when.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...
Pondering, nothing is in the bag. But, I'm counting on Canadians finally waking up to the Faux Progressivism of the LPC and its supporters and embracing the real embodiment of that, the NDP. We'll see, but I wouldn't be so smug either. Serioulsy, look in the G-d damn mirror!
Pondering, nothing is in the bag. But, I'm counting on Canadians finally waking up to the Faux Progressivism of the LPC and its supporters and embracing the real embodiment of that, the NDP. We'll see, but I wouldn't be so smug either. Serioulsy, look in the G-d damn mirror!
Feeling confident is not the same thing as being smug.
From the looks of this you should be feeling as confident as the Liberals did way back when.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...
Pondering as socialdemocraticmiddle and I have both said IT'S OVER!
NDP now favoured in new polls and seat projection (threehundredeight.com)
Pondering, nothing is in the bag. But, I'm counting on Canadians finally waking up to the Faux Progressivism of the LPC and its supporters and embracing the real embodiment of that, the NDP. We'll see, but I wouldn't be so smug either. Serioulsy, look in the G-d damn mirror!
Feeling confident is not the same thing as being smug.
Agreed; unfortunately, in your case, you don't seem to know the difference.
