I think the Cons see the Liberal voters as their only last hope to stage an assault on the NDP. So they are going to try to pick at the Liberal corpse. If right-wing voters see an NDP government as an inevitability, they will want a Tory opposition.
Don't underestimate Justin Trudeau
Sat, 2015-06-06 22:49
#52
montrealer58
Sat, 2015-06-06 23:02
#53
Bekayne, 4 weeks ago the Liberals had 30% in EKOS and were tied for first. The NDP had 24.
The narrative is now completley changed with the Liberals in a faltering 3rd place, 7% back of the NDP. The NDP is fast emerging as the real alternaative to Harper.
I think that is more than worth the front page.
Sat, 2015-06-06 23:17
#54
Of course it's major news.
Just like the Conservatives use their vote suppressing techniques during elections, the Liberals use their news suppressing buddies in the media to suppress the disasterous polling results for the Liberals.
A good example is Liberal CBC connected 308 who quietly changed their seat projections today in order to stop being ridiculed but discusses some bullshit about the Alberta election on his main page.
Sat, 2015-06-06 23:17
#55
Just like the Conservatives use their vote suppressing techniques during elections, the Liberals use their news suppressing buddies in the media to suppress the disasterous polling results for the Liberals.
Sun, 2015-06-07 01:42
#56
Bekayne, 4 weeks ago the Liberals had 30% in EKOS and were tied for first. The NDP had 24.
The narrative is now completley changed with the Liberals in a faltering 3rd place, 7% back of the NDP. The NDP is fast emerging as the real alternative to Harper.
I think that is more than worth the front page.
Absolutely.
Mon, 2015-06-08 12:34
#57
Yea when your party falls below 24% from a high of 39 just last year, that is signifcant. It shows the NDP is by FAR the better option to unseat harper but that doesn't sit well with our puppet masters.
The 3 percent drop for the libs isn't bad if they are at 30% and fall to third..just, its the NDP moving 2% higher while the libs move 3% back. Its a 5% change at that point, in one week, much more than stat errors.
Mon, 2015-06-08 13:29
#58
Yes. But Forum today showed a closer race, with the Libs on top: Libs 32%, Cons 31%, NDP 28%. So are the results of Ekos or Forum more accurate? Who knows.
Mon, 2015-06-08 13:38
#59
https://ca.yahoo.com/ca/news/blogs/canada-politics/tories-and-liberals-t...
Yahoo news stated that NDP is down...slightly in the lastest fourm poll
Mon, 2015-06-08 18:57
#60
What goes down can also go up
http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/06/what-goes-down-can-also-go-up/#comments
Tue, 2015-06-09 13:26
#61
What goes down can also go up
http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/06/what-goes-down-can-also-go-up/#comments
Comments are interesting. Typical Liberal perspective, in that they can't see beyond the red door blue door premise. Most there seem to feel that if the Liberals can't win, then certainly the Cons will win.
Thu, 2015-06-11 11:57
#62
montrealer58
The "Liberal vs. Conservative" mindset which is mainly concentrated in Toronto is largely irrelevant to modern Canadian political conversation. People like Evan Solomon and all of the other wretched media hacks and flacks who promote this false dualism are just going to get switched off.
This means lower advertising ratings, because the media is no longer credible.
The "manufactured consent" is that Solomon was fired for side deals involving contacts he made at CBC. Why would Mansbridge not be fired for taking money for speeches? I see no difference at all. The real reason is that the CBC sees that Liberal-boosting puts their ratings in the toilet. They also know that if the NDP win, the $1 billion in funding will come from them, and they won't want to be seen to be biting the hand that feeds them.
Thu, 2015-06-11 14:40
#63
The real reason is that the CBC sees that Liberal-boosting puts their ratings in the toilet. They also know that if the NDP win, the $1 billion in funding will come from them, and they won't want to be seen to be biting the hand that feeds them.
But wasn't it Kevin Donovan of the Star that broke the story in the first place? The Star is hardly an anti-Liberal media outlet.
Thu, 2015-06-11 16:44
#64
but will the media continue to ignore the NDP or undermine it whenever they have a chance or do we still need the media, when we have facebook? i am starting to realize why senior citizens tend to vote conservative or liberals.
Thu, 2015-06-11 17:26
#65
JohnInAlberta
Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!!
This is anecdotal, but Trudeau came across very positively at Edmonton's Pride parade. Ms. Notley got a hero's welcome but Trudeau, simply walking the parade route like any other regular fellow was received overall quite well.
And as for seat count, 308 -- which was amazingly accurate in the Alberta provincial election -- still has Cons : Libs : NDP in that order. There are zero guarantees WRT Oct 19 right now.
Thu, 2015-06-11 17:42
#66
Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!!
This is anecdotal, but Trudeau came across very positively at Edmonton's Pride parade. Ms. Notley got a hero's welcome but Trudeau, simply walking the parade route like any other regular fellow was received overall quite well.
And as for seat count, 308 -- which was amazingly accurate in the Alberta provincial election -- still has Cons : Libs : NDP in that order. There are zero guarantees WRT Oct 19 right now.
That's interesting but I don't think personal reception says much. When I read the polls on how people feel about the three leaders while the split varies there are few people who dislike Harper all that strongly even if they disapprove of him. The majority don't think he is all that bad. They certainly don't loathe him the way I and others here do.
It's obviously good if people find Trudeau likeable, but it doesn't mean they will vote for him.
The seat count is interesting. As you noted there are zero guarantees. The campaigns are going to be very important. We often talk about the Liberals holding their fire but the NDP hasn't been spending their war chest either. Their recent surge was not a result of some massive increase in spending. Both the NDP and the Liberals are going to have a lot more to say.
Thu, 2015-06-11 18:10
#67
Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!!
And as for seat count, 308 -- which was amazingly accurate in the Alberta provincial election -- still has Cons : Libs : NDP in that order. There are zero guarantees WRT Oct 19 right now.
The seat count at the link you gave is actually Cons : NDP : Libs, in that order (Cons 131, NDP 104, Libs 100).
Anyway, unless the Libs totally collapse with the NDP gaining most of the Libs' vote, I do think it's important for the Libs to maintain a reasonably good showing (like at least 70 seats.) Had they maintained that last time instead of completely collapsing would have meant a minority government.
Thu, 2015-06-11 18:16
#68
so far i have seen one haprer tv ad and one trudeau tv ad and no NDP ad on tv.
Thu, 2015-06-11 21:23
#69
JohnInAlberta
The seat count at the link you gave is actually Cons : NDP : Libs, in that order (Cons 131, NDP 104, Libs 100).
Whups! Good call; I looked at popular vote without reading the projected seat count. It's troubling to me that the Cons are still polling +27 seats after passing C-51. I honestly don't think the majority bothers with anything other than Honey Boo-Boo and American Idol when they flip the TV on ... and don't even mention reading, unless it's a gossip rag.
* (Pardon if I don't have currently popular shows; I haven't had cable in over a decade)
Thu, 2015-06-11 22:49
#70
they buy into the fear..and too comfortable with the status quo
Tue, 2015-06-16 19:10
#71
Trudeau sounds more polished and sincere in the latest advertisments. Dont underestimate his debate performance. He has a lower threshold to meet than Mulcair. Its about expectation.
Tue, 2015-06-16 21:18
#72
montrealer58
Justin sounded a little over-dramatized. It's not Stratford.
Tue, 2015-06-16 21:24
#73
LOL! He had also some sort of swagger gonig on. I think he is really using the skills he learned as a part time drama teacher. lol.
Tue, 2015-06-16 21:40
#74
He sounded okay, and I agreed w/ some of what he was saying.
Wed, 2015-06-17 02:40
#75
Trudeau sounds more polished and sincere in the latest advertisments. Dont underestimate his debate performance. He has a lower threshold to meet than Mulcair. Its about expectation.
He will still be eaten alove, just surviving isn't enough if Mulcair looks dominant. Cuz? rally around the one with the best chance to defeat Harper. With tthe Libs at 23% and the NDP at 34..C-51 Fipa Etc its looking more and more like only the NDP(major party wise) is the actual change people want. I am shocked the Libs are that low. Its major collapse territory. If the poll in teens again it would be bad because it would allow harper to likely pull enough seats to ask the GG to keep him in power. If the libs only get 50 seats what then?
Wed, 2015-06-17 09:19
#76
I love how Trudeau can be seen in the video here with a podium that says "real change," railing against Harper's supposedly dirty campaigning, while former Conservative MP Eve Adams nods approvingly in the background link
Was the irony not lost on the people that advise him?
Mon, 2015-06-22 18:34
#77
Justin Trudeau Facebook group:
11,233 People Talking About This 228,942Total Page Likes +1.5%from last week
Tom Mulcair
15,138 People Talking About This 54,677 Total Page Likes +2.1%from last week
Thu, 2015-06-25 03:08
#78
Justin Trudeau Facebook group:
11,233 People Talking About This 228,942Total Page Likes +1.5%from last week
Tom Mulcair
15,138 People Talking About This 54,677 Total Page Likes +2.1%from last week
I don't use facebook likes to gauge how people will vote. For many reasons!
Thu, 2015-06-25 19:50
#79
Its not a completely useless indicator either in my opinon.
Mon, 2015-06-29 12:27
#80
https://www.straight.com/news/479396/its-too-early-write-justin-trudeau-...
The Liberal party won't go down without a fight. They still have powerful allies in the media and in the corporate world.
Mon, 2015-06-29 18:45
#81
montrealer58
I would rather see the Liberals as the opposition to the NDP than the Conservatives. We might get something done.
Wed, 2015-07-01 17:19
#82
For the liberals, ITS OVER! LOL
Wed, 2015-07-01 17:22
#83
Even if there were a NDP majority, unless Mulcair abolishes the Senate it won't matter a flyin' fig who the opposition is, as no legislation will pass. 
Wed, 2015-07-01 18:42
#84
If the Senate starts blocking NDP legislation it will forge its own noose and no provincial government will be able to justify its continued existance.
Wed, 2015-07-01 23:16
#85
If the Senate starts blocking NDP legislation it will forge its own noose and no provincial government will be able to justify its continued existance.
I hope that would be correct.
Thu, 2015-07-02 13:07
#86
HOW does one underestimate JT ?
Thu, 2015-07-02 15:35
#87
Misfit
It's not JT by himself. It is the MSM who will slant the election coverage in his favour to try to sway voters to the Liberal party and work hard to undermine the successes of the NDP.
Thu, 2015-07-02 15:57
#88
It's not JT by himself. It is the MSM who will slant the election coverage in his favour to try to sway voters to the Liberal party and work hard to undermine the successes of the NDP.
I've thought for a long time that they strangely favor Harper considering he cut them off years ago and refuses to speak to them.
If they give up on Harper I wouldn't be surprised if they start favoring Trudeau, but they have favored the NDP for months now so I am really not sure. I suspect they write whatever they think will sell. Hence, the necessity to create tempests in teapots.
Thu, 2015-07-02 16:52
#89
oh nonsense Mulcair and Trudeau were both at Globl BC cooking the other morning, Global only showed the segment with Trudeau cooking and spoke distainfully, imv, about Mulcair
Thu, 2015-07-02 17:03
#90
The only reason that MSM gave lots of press to NDP this spring was because Trudeau boxed himself out of C51 debate by agreeing to support before the ink was dry on first draft. Mulcair and NDP held attention by developing argument over time and keeping their cards close to their chest -- thus the NDP decision on C51 became the story.
Trudeau = amateur team propped up by media glamour spots.
Thu, 2015-07-02 19:33
#91
If the Senate starts blocking NDP legislation it will forge its own noose and no provincial government will be able to justify its continued existance.
Indeed -- this has never happened before. If the NDP win they would have no hope in their mandate of taking control of the Senate even if they wanted to.
The chance of the Senate provoking a constitutional crisis is very real if the NDP are elected. The Senate has no legitimacy to vote down the entire program of the House of Commons but they would legally have the ability. They cannot propose money bills but they can veto anything. Almost identical power to the House -- a lot for an unelected body.
Thu, 2015-07-02 19:33
#92
Over-estimation seems to be a common theme in today's politics, except where the Conservatives are concerned. Very few of us have any doubt that they're capable of anything.
Thu, 2015-07-02 20:01
#93
If the Senate starts blocking NDP legislation it will forge its own noose and no provincial government will be able to justify its continued existance.
Indeed -- this has never happened before. If the NDP win they would have no hope in their mandate of taking control of the Senate even if they wanted to.
The chance of the Senate provoking a constitutional crisis is very real if the NDP are elected. The Senate has no legitimacy to vote down the entire program of the House of Commons but they would legally have the ability. They cannot propose money bills but they can veto anything. Almost identical power to the House -- a lot for an unelected body.
This problem also brings into question precisely what "RealChange" the Liberals are proposing, since everything they legislate, amenments to C51, repeal of C377 would have to pass muster with the Conservative stacked senate.
They propose nothing to deal with this problem. The only conclusion is that "Realchange" isn't "Reallyrealchange", since everything they do must get the stamp of approval from the Stephen Harper senate.
As for the NDP, Mulcair and the NDP are showing much forsight in calling the question on the Senate, since it is the equivalent of bringing a loaded shotgun to the party. Anything they do will only further justify the movement for their own abolition, and defining abolition as an election issue will give them the mandate to pursue correction through other avenues.
Abolition is probably unlikely but the senate needs to justify its existence, and should they granstand against the NDP the case for serious reform will be hard to challenge at the provincial level.
While Wynne says she is for reform, not abolition, lets remember that Dalton McGuinty was vocal about abolition, and all provincial governments will be seeking new mandates in the short to mid-term and the senate might become an election issue there as well.
Thu, 2015-07-02 20:39
#94
The senate isn't going to do anything to bolster the arguments for abolishing it. They won't block any reasonable or popular measures.
The greatest challenge for whomever replaces Harper will be that the cupboard is bare and the civil service hollowed out.
I remain hopeful that it is the Conservatives that will end in 3rd place as Canada begins to fully experience what he has done to our economy and see what little talent his has left on the front bench with which to run the government.
Then the contest will be between the Liberals and the NDP not just in October but hopefully also in 2019.
Fri, 2015-07-03 01:09
#95
The senate isn't going to do anything to bolster the arguments for abolishing it. They won't block any reasonable or popular measures.
Especially if someone has put that possibility on the table. Get it?
Fri, 2015-07-03 01:20
#96
And of course should the Senate granstand on passage of legislation, such a measure can not be seriously invoked or presented post-election without seriously violating voter trust, and undermning your case since you have no mandate, and as such Mulcair's promise serves the function of arming himself for a post-election scrum with the senate, neutered, reformed, or abolished.
At face value calling for abolition seems rash, but with deeper analysis it is very calculated.
Don't underestimate Thomas Mulcair.
Fri, 2015-07-03 01:43
#97
If the Senate starts blocking NDP legislation it will forge its own noose and no provincial government will be able to justify its continued existance.
Indeed -- this has never happened before. If the NDP win they would have no hope in their mandate of taking control of the Senate even if they wanted to.
The chance of the Senate provoking a constitutional crisis is very real if the NDP are elected. The Senate has no legitimacy to vote down the entire program of the House of Commons but they would legally have the ability. They cannot propose money bills but they can veto anything. Almost identical power to the House -- a lot for an unelected body.
This problem also brings into question precisely what "RealChange" the Liberals are proposing, since everything they legislate, amenments to C51, repeal of C377 would have to pass muster with the Conservative stacked senate.
They propose nothing to deal with this problem. The only conclusion is that "Realchange" isn't "Reallyrealchange", since everything they do must get the stamp of approval from the Stephen Harper senate.
As for the NDP, Mulcair and the NDP are showing much forsight in calling the question on the Senate, since it is the equivalent of bringing a loaded shotgun to the party. Anything they do will only further justify the movement for their own abolition, and defining abolition as an election issue will give them the mandate to pursue correction through other avenues.
Abolition is probably unlikely but the senate needs to justify its existence, and should they granstand against the NDP the case for serious reform will be hard to challenge at the provincial level.
While Wynne says she is for reform, not abolition, lets remember that Dalton McGuinty was vocal about abolition, and all provincial governments will be seeking new mandates in the short to mid-term and the senate might become an election issue there as well.
If Harper does not appoint new Senators and Trudeau wins -- he can take control of the Senate with a "Non Liberal" majority by January.
It may be too late for Harper to nominate a bunch of Senators before the election. If he tried to do it before resigning on election night the appointments would be challenged in court.
Mulcair could also appoint Senators and only have these new and Senators and the independent Liberals to negotiate with.
Mulcair would be forgiven if he appointed Senators in a stop-gap arrangent to get the nation's business done -- provided he did this in a better way-- not partisan hacks and not based on a PMO process. He could create a plan to appoint enough Senators who would agree to a short term with participation of a non-PMO process.
This would give him hope but no guarantees as a group like this would not be automatically loyal. If the NDP were popular they would likely not hold up legislation.
No question this would be difficult but there is a way to get past the Conservatives. Mulcair would still have to deal with independent Liberal Senators. They may not be that impossible to deal with.
All bets are off if Harper, seeing he is going to lose anyway, goes ahead and fills the open seats now, however.
Ironically, Trudeau could have a harder time both with appointments and with Liberal Senators keen to show their independence and irritated at being put out of caucus.
Even without the Conservatives having a majority by January there is no indication that the Senate will be an easy project for any of the three parties.
Fri, 2015-07-03 02:01
#98
If the Senate starts blocking NDP legislation it will forge its own noose and no provincial government will be able to justify its continued existance.
Indeed -- this has never happened before. If the NDP win they would have no hope in their mandate of taking control of the Senate even if they wanted to.
The chance of the Senate provoking a constitutional crisis is very real if the NDP are elected. The Senate has no legitimacy to vote down the entire program of the House of Commons but they would legally have the ability. They cannot propose money bills but they can veto anything. Almost identical power to the House -- a lot for an unelected body.
This problem also brings into question precisely what "RealChange" the Liberals are proposing, since everything they legislate, amenments to C51, repeal of C377 would have to pass muster with the Conservative stacked senate.
They propose nothing to deal with this problem. The only conclusion is that "Realchange" isn't "Reallyrealchange", since everything they do must get the stamp of approval from the Stephen Harper senate.
As for the NDP, Mulcair and the NDP are showing much forsight in calling the question on the Senate, since it is the equivalent of bringing a loaded shotgun to the party. Anything they do will only further justify the movement for their own abolition, and defining abolition as an election issue will give them the mandate to pursue correction through other avenues.
Abolition is probably unlikely but the senate needs to justify its existence, and should they granstand against the NDP the case for serious reform will be hard to challenge at the provincial level.
While Wynne says she is for reform, not abolition, lets remember that Dalton McGuinty was vocal about abolition, and all provincial governments will be seeking new mandates in the short to mid-term and the senate might become an election issue there as well.
If Harper does not appoint new Senators and Trudeau wins -- he can take control of the Senate with a "Non Liberal" majority by January.
It may be too late for Harper to nominate a bunch of Senators before the election. If he tried to do it before resigning on election night the appointments would be challenged in court.
Harper has a ready made excuse to appoint senators, since there are several court challenges going forward protesting the lack of appointments.
Fri, 2015-07-03 02:46
#99
bagkitty
Please stop talking about Stephen Harper appointing a bunch of senators at the last minute... I have this image of Rob Anders being appointed to the Red Chamber and dammit, that scares me.
Fri, 2015-07-03 13:47
#100
Bag Kitty please put the bag over your ears.
It does not matter if there are court cases -- any mass appointment would be a problem for Harper.
Still he might do it anyway.
Sorry Bag Kitty -- now please remove the bag and come out.
Fri, 2015-07-03 15:02
#101
If he is clearly losing in September, it will be a great way to hold onto his legacy.