Now at this point the Liberals have less money than the Conservatives, have had a long term trend go in the wrong direction in the polls recently, they have the least number of incumbants and their leader has a way of saying things that create negative news stories.
They have more money than the NDP. The cause of the longterm trend is important. I am not alone in thinking that it is due to lack of policy rather than any shortcomings of Trudeau. The lack of incumbants doesn't always hurt, especially when people are looking for a change.
Trudeau generates far more positive news stories than negative ones.
They have a shot but it is a long shot. The only reason why they even have a shot at all is becuase in this election all the parties have negatives and you could argue that for the other two to win it would also be a long shot (each for different reasons). The only thing that keeps them all in is that one of these long shots have to win.
If they are all longshots then none are. They all have a shot.
That said the Conservatives fight dirty, have the most incumbants, have the highest loyal voters, and the most money.
They also have the burden of a decade of scandals and the loss of many key players. Nigel Wright will be taking the stand, in mid-August I think. The economy is unlikely to improve. Climate change is upon us. He has been unable to get the big trade deals off the ground.
The NDP have the most popular leader now, have had a good run in the polls leading up to the election and good trends for them, they also have a lower rate of making stupid mistakes.
We differ on what stupid mistakes are. I think raising the issue of the Unity Bill again was a mistake.
So of the three long shots you could argue that the Liberals may be the longest -- although I can well frame, as I have in the past, why others could be considered longer. But most people do not pretend that the Liberals are facing anything other than a long shot.
You don't know what most people think of Trudeau's chances. Even if that were what most people think, it doesn't make them correct.
There is that fine line between being a Liberal cheerleader and just being foolish. You seem to be on the wrong side of that line often these days.
There is a fine line between confidence and hubris. This comes down to an assessment of Trudeau's abilities, how well he will perform under campaign conditions and how good the Liberal platform will be. That is what this election rests on. My bet is that he will have a great platform and he will sell it and himself very well. Of course I have no proof of that, but that doesn't make me wrong. I have said that the August 6th debate will be very important not in terms of immediate impact but in terms of judging Trudeau's readiness for the campaign and the position. One of us will be confirmed correct although we may not agree which one of us it is.
Polls are based on "if the election were held today" and on answers given lightly without much thought. They are significant, there is no doubt that the NDP has reason to feel optimistic. I think Harper has a very slim chance of winning again. I am much more confident that our next government will be the Liberals or the NDP, not Harper.
Policy and performance are going to matter a great deal. If you think the Liberals and Trudeau will fail in that regard then you have every reason to believe they will stay down and maybe even drop farther. If like me you think that Trudeau is again being underestimated and he will come out swinging when the time is ripe then there is every reason to believe that Trudeau will bounce back as soon as people catch up on his policy positions and he releases more. It's certainly not foolish to think it will make a difference. I am not alone in believing Trudeau's drop has been due to lack of policy.
