Latest polling thread July 14, 2015

ThinkHQ just released an Federal poll for Alberta showing they could win some seats there

ThinkHQ pollster Henry says 10 seats could be in play for NDP in Edmonton as they are now even with the PCs there but Liberal support is collapsing

Good news on the impenetrable Nanos Index:

For seven weeks in a row now, the NDP have scored the highest on the Nanos Party Power Index. Their 56 points out of a possible 100 ties the highest Tom Mulcair’s party has ever scored on the index, and puts them a full five points above the second-place Liberals.... The NDP are also trending higher than the Conservatives ever have, as Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s party has never eclipsed 54 points....

Mulcair now sits atop the party leaders with 60 per cent of those polled saying the face of the NDP has the qualities of a good leader. About 53 per cent of those polled also thought Harper had the qualities of a good leader, while Trudeau is at a two-year low of 48 per cent.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nanos-on-the-numbers/ndp-highest-on-nanos...

Holy Smokes!

ThinkHQ Federal Election Polling - Jun 30 '15

Edmonton (City)

NDP - 51%

Cons - 50%

http://thinkhq.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/AB-Fed-Release-July-14.pdf

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NDP Campaign Ad: “Enough"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmmSV1jtK3s

CBC poll tracker: NDP 32 CPC 29 LPC 27.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-holding-on-to-lead-with-3-pillars-of...

You want some Liberal polling - here you go!

Introducing the CBC Poll Tracker

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/07/introducing-cbc-poll-tracker.html

The Nader effect: Could Liz May win the election for Stephen Harper?

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/14/the-nader-effect-could-liz-may-win-the-el...

NorthReport wrote:

You want some Liberal polling - here you go!

Introducing the CBC Poll Tracker

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/07/introducing-cbc-poll-tracker.html

Lacks regional breakdowns...

Quote:

Al Gore’s recent visit to Toronto to speak at a climate change conference got me thinking about this. Gore always gets a laugh when he introduces himself as “the man who used to be the next president of the United States” — but he would have won the 2000 election had it not been for a twist of fate.

Ralph Nader’s quixotic run as the Greens’ third-party presidential candidate hurt Gore and the Democrats. Nader knew he didn’t have a hope in hell of winning. Nevertheless, the consumer crusader and environmental activist ramped up his campaign in the final week and focused on Florida, a must-win state for Gore and for Republican candidate George W. Bush.

Nader siphoned off 2.74 per cent of the popular vote nationally. His 97,000 votes in the extremely tight Florida race proved to be critical to Bush’s win. Bush took Florida by less than 600 votes and thus secured a majority in the electoral college.

Tory strategists look at recent opinion polls glumly and hunt for any sliver of hope. This could be it. If ISIS terror scares, baby bonus cheques and a flood of infrastructure grants in key ridings this summer can’t save Harper, maybe Elizabeth May can.

Many on the left have never forgiven Nader. They argue that, absent a Nader candidacy and a juiced-up final push by the Greens in Florida, those 97,000 votes would have broken in favour of Gore, perhaps by a margin of two-to-one, denying Bush the White House. At this point in the narrative American lefties sigh deeply, mutter “the rest is history” and grumble something about the tragic Bush legacy.

You don’t have to wait until election day to play “what if”. What if the anti-Harper vote splits almost evenly between Liberals and New Democrats on Oct. 19? And what if Elizabeth May’s Green Party takes eight per cent of the popular vote — as the Greens came close to doing in the 2008 election, their high-water mark? And what if the Conservatives’ core vote turns out and apathetic young millennials stay home? At the moment, none of these what-ifs is too far-fetched to be considered.

In this scenario, with our terribly broken and antiquated first-past-the-post voting system, the Tories might win a plurality in enough ridings to score a slim majority of seats the House.

Tory strategists look at recent opinion polls glumly and hunt for any sliver of hope. This could be it. If ISIS terror scares, baby bonus cheques and a flood of infrastructure grants in key ridings this summer can’t save Harper, maybe Elizabeth May can.

Does the Green Party leader really want to be the spoiler for the Stop Harper forces? No f…in’ way, as she might say. May believes stopping Harper is imperative. From her perspective, a Liberal minority government would be dandy. A Liberal-NDP-Green coalition, with May getting the environment portfolio, would send her over the moon.

Even if she runs a stellar campaign, May has no chance of forming a government and her chances of becoming the Official Opposition leader aren’t much better. Nevertheless, the Greens say they intend to run candidates in every riding — and good for them. They’re giving voters another option, a chance to express themselves clearly on environmental issues. Or maybe some voters will cast ballots for Green candidates to send a sharp message to organizers of leaders’ debates who have cynically cut May out of the action.

Now, back to our “what if” game and the lightning round. What will May do on the day before the election if all signs indicate the scenario we’ve sketched out here is about to come to pass and a Harper majority seems possible? Might she call on her supporters to vote Liberal in ridings with tight three-way Tory, Liberal and NDP races? She’s played footsie with Liberals before.

You can bet that if Harper returns with a slim majority, and the Green vote played any part in it, they won’t serve champagne at Green Party headquarters on election night. They’ll pass around the Kool-Aid.

Pondering wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

The Nader effect: Could Liz May win the election for Stephen Harper?

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/14/the-nader-effect-could-liz-may-win-the-el...

Nader siphoned off 2.74 per cent of the popular vote nationally. His 97,000 votes in the extremely tight Florida race proved to be critical to Bush’s win. Bush took Florida by less than 600 votes and thus secured a majority in the electoral college.

He didn't siphon off votes anymore that Bush or Gore siphoned off votes. He won the support of voters who do not agree with the policies of either the democrats or republicans.

The notion that a small party should just bow out is undemocratic. Voters knew it was a tight race and still chose to vote for Nader. Taking that choice away in order to benefit one of the other parties is undemocratic.

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500

I highly doubt a party of 1 will make any difference in the election.

More wishful thinking,I reckon.

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  24m24 minutes ago

As long as #NDP can show it has a better chance of kicking Harper's butt, #LPC is in deep doo-doo https://twitter.com/univrsle/status/621405421480341505 …

Winston wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

I highly doubt a party of 1 will make any difference in the election.

I'm sure Justin Trudeau will do just fine! ;)

I'm glad you label me a Liberal. You and NR come across like Tories to me. But I'm not going to directly label you as such,I'll keep it to myself.

If you haven't figured out my politics by now,you never will.

Liberal media complex

CBC Poll tracker has the regionals

BC

NDP / 39%

Cons / 26%

AB

NDP / 30%

Cons / 47%

SK/MB

NDP / 30%

Cons / 38%

ON

NDP / 30%

Cons / 32%

QC

NDP / 34%

BQ / 21%

AC

NDP / 29%

Cons / 25%

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  27m27 minutes ago

! In January, Chantal Hebert said things looked grim for Mulcair/raised possibility of Trudeau revival in QC http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/01/16/electoral-prospects-looking-grim-for-thomas-mulcairs-ndp-hbert.html …

NorthReport wrote:

Liberal media complex

CBC Poll tracker has the regionals

BC

NDP / 39%

Cons / 26%

 

AB

NDP / 30%

Cons / 47%

 

SK/MB

NDP / 30%

Cons / 38%

 

ON

NDP / 30%

Cons / 32%

 

QC

NDP / 34%

BQ / 21%

 

AC

NDP / 29%

Cons / 25%

 

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html

 

Now you're being childish

Pondering wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

The Nader effect: Could Liz May win the election for Stephen Harper?

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/14/the-nader-effect-could-liz-may-win-the-el...

Nader siphoned off 2.74 per cent of the popular vote nationally. His 97,000 votes in the extremely tight Florida race proved to be critical to Bush’s win. Bush took Florida by less than 600 votes and thus secured a majority in the electoral college.

He didn't siphon off votes anymore that Bush or Gore siphoned off votes. He won the support of voters who do not agree with the policies of either the democrats or republicans.

The notion that a small party should just bow out is undemocratic. Voters knew it was a tight race and still chose to vote for Nader. Taking that choice away in order to benefit one of the other parties is undemocratic.

I am gobsmacked that you would write this as someone who has defended FPTP and does not agree with PR.

NorthReport wrote:

Latest polling:

Forum Poll

NDP - 32%

Cons - 32%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

More completely: NDP: 32%; CPC: 32%; LPC: 26%; BQ: 5%; GPC: 3%

Since the NDP left third place and jumped dramatically (mid May) the party has averaged 31.13% over 20 polls.

If you average the last ten only it comes to 32.3.

Let's look at the volatility of each of the parties. To do this Let's look at the second lowest and the second highest score for each (considering a 1 in 20 that is not accurate at each end).

The top for the NDP is 36. The bottom is 28. The average of those is 32. About the same as the average of all of them.

The top for the Liberals is 31. The bottom is 23. The average of those is 27. The average of all the polls is 27.55.

The top for the Conservatives is 32 (we dropped a 32.9). The bottom is 26.9. The average of those is 29.41. This means that while the Conservatives have dipped down they have stayed closer to the top of the range.

So the poll of polls is NDP 32/CPC 29/LPC 27.

This happens to be the exact number of the Abacus poll from July 6.

It looks like we have had a lot of stability over the last 7 weeks.

Why the NDP Is Leading in the Polls

In the beginning of the last Toronto mayoral election, Olivia Chow was viewed as the most likely candidate to beat Rob Ford. Thus those who hated Rob Ford flowed to Chow and gave her a lead in the opinion polls. Later Chow was surpassed by John Tory. Then we saw Chow's support drop and move over to the leading candidate. In the end, Tory won with 390,000 votes, Doug Ford got 330,000 votes and Chow was left with 220,000 votes.

The situation of the coming federal election is similar. When Justin Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party, he became the nation's favorite son and led in the polls. It was not until early this year that his continuous missteps ended his long honeymoon period. His recent vote to support the Conservative government's Anti-Terror Billmade the public realize that the Liberal Party is in fact not much different from the Conservatives, especially in such a major matter of principle. Basically Trudeau Junior is tearing apart the Charter of Rights and Freedom established by his father. When Bill C-51 went to the senate, the Liberal senators voted against the bill and their leader.

With the NDP, the Alberta provincial election result has stunned the country. Not only did the NDP beat the Progressive Conservatives and won a majority government, they even defeated the Conservatives in the prime minister's Calgary riding. Canadians now realize that the most likely party that could defeat the federal Conservatives and bring real change is the NDP. As a result, we could see from the recent polls that support for the Liberals is withering whereas that for the Conservatives is stagnant, and that for the NDP is rising.

Indeed, there are still three months before the election and in politics, the sky and the earth could turn upside down in a week's time. What we can expect is this: with Tom Mulcair leading in the polls, the Conservatives and the Liberals will change their tactics and turn their big guns to the NDP. Thus, we saw recently the Maclean magazine's "breaking news" of Tom Mulcair being exposed for his willingness to serve the Conservative government in 2006/07 and this not coming about because Mulcair asked for too much money. Later, the media revealed that Conservative insiders verified that was not the case. The "news" was allegedly made up by Harper's former press secretary Dimitri Soudas, who was the boyfriend of the infamous Conservative MP Eve Adams who crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party.

Actually, journalists with a little common sense could easily see through the trick. Mulcair was the cabinet minister of Jean Charest's Quebec government. If he was an opportunist, he certainly would not run for the NDP in the 2007 by-election. At that time, the NDP was the fourth party in parliament and had never won any seats in Quebec.

Can the NDP build an even bigger legacy and make history by winning the upcoming federal election? The next three months will be very interesting to watch.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/gabriel-yiu/mulcair-ndp-polls_b_7807480.html

Forum out today: NDP 34%, Libs and Cons tied at 27%.

Given the latest polling, the NDP would capture a healthy minority of 132 seats in what will be a 338-seat House of Commons, 38 seats short of a majority government, Forum says.

The Conservatives would take 107 seats and the Liberals 79, according to the pollster. Green and Bloc Québécois seats make up the remainder.

Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff said: “We’ve now arrived where this trend was apparently going anyway, with the NDP in sole possession of first place.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/07/17/ndp-captures-lead-in-publi...

Seems like a big deal, given how Forum's weighting formula often appears to blunt NDP advances. (And they still have the Liberals leading in Ontario, by a fraction.)

Forum has benn publishing a weekly horses entered poll every Friday with polls on other subjects intermittently.

Ekos releases its pols every two weeks, also on a Friday.

Abacus has had a monthly poll usually released toward the end of every month.

crop land leger also have montly polls.

I expect the frequency of all these polls, and others, will increase as we near Oct. 19

We are talking about part of the the Liberal media complex now, right.

The Conservatives going up in EKOS was predictable, since Frank Graves didn't leak the results on twitter

2015 Canadian election could see big changes

The latest numbers are suggesting that the upstart left leaning New Democratic Party may form a minority government in a few months. The NDP are set to gain over 20 new seats while the Conservatives could lose almost 50. The Liberals are trying to bounce back and win some new seats but will likely remain the third party.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/politics/op-ed-will-canada-have-a-new...