Latest polling thread July 14, 2015

Thanks Jeff.

Wasn't it Glen McGregor that tweeted a previous EKOS polling result which was incorrect?

Glen McGregor ‏@glen_mcgregor  20h20 hours ago Ottawa, Ontario

Forthcoming EKOS poll apparently shows Liberals running fourth in BC, behind Greens. #cdnpoli.

 80 retweets22 favorites Reply Retweet80 Favorite22

Ipsos: NDP 34 CPC 33 LPC 25

https://mobile.twitter.com/amyminsky/status/626120940368343041

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  6h6 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted Global National

#LPC down 4 points; if you want to kick Harper out of office, Mulcair's your man!

Norman Spector added,

Global National @GlobalNationalLatest poll: http://glbn.ca/Qcnqj  Tories close gap, but NDP still leads as election draws nearer

The dirty game of politics, eh! 

Norm calls 'em as he sees them, and doesn't suffer fools gladly. 

Watch out for the trends

"Canadians are more likely to think that a majority government of any kind, regardless if it is a majority Conservative government or a majority NDP government, will have a more positive effect on the Canadian economy than a minority government would when asked about outcomes in the next federal election. However, Canadians are more likely to think that an NDP government will have a more positive impact on the economy (47%), versus a Conservative government (32%)."

Ignore the numbers and just read that second sentence as a more-or-less statement. More likely, more positive, that's the language that pollsters should speak, not specific numbers and outcomes.

Taken at face value, those sentences point to two fascinating trends that could shape the outcome of the election.

First, the efforts by the Conservatives to demonize Liberal leader Trudeau are working but not in the way the Conservatives expected. For many voters, the attack ad message "Justin - just not ready" is being interpreted as "I wonder if that Mulcair fellow is ready." Second, campaigning on a soundly managed and healthy economy is proving to be a castle

made of sand for the Harper Conservatives, reinforcing the idea of a closer examination of Mulcair.

Pollsters and political operatives are well aware that voters tend to move quickly and en masse in an unstoppable wave.

http://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/opinion/editorial/watch-out-for-the-t...

bekayne wrote:

sherpa-finn wrote:

Given that Spector was Brian Mulroney's chief of staff 'back in the day', I have to wonder if his apparent delight at the decline of Trudeau and the Libs (and by implication his cheer-leading for the rise of the NDP) is not part of that larger Conservative strategy to ensure a two way race in which sufficient blue (and/or nervous) Libs are enticed into the Conservative fold to secure another term for Harper & Co.

Not wanting to sound paranoid, but sometimes they are out to get you....

Spector wants a two party system (he's dead set against PR) that leads to both parties moving towards each other to the centre, a Canadian version of "Butskellism". Harclairism? 

I don't buy Harper being around after the election. If either the Liberals or the Conservatives becomes not viable after this eleciton their leader will go. The leader of the other will likely go as well in an attempt to allow for a union against the NDP -- but it won't be Harper. A Bernard Lord-type figure could easily become a leader able to bring those parties together to be a slightly right of centre alternative to the NDP. This is possible when you consider that The Liberals and Conservatives may find that under their present leadership they cannot work with each other. While they get their act together they can -- without supporting the NDP -- decline to bring it down if the NDP has a plurality.

The Liberals cannot support another Harper government. Even Harper knows he cannot be supported by the Liberals. This means that a new incarnation of those two parties might be required if they want to work together. At the very least their leaders would need to change in favour of somoene from outside. This is a more credible way of seeing the Liberals and Conservatives get together than a simple support form the Liberals for Harper -- as that will not happen.

If the NDP come seconf -- and the other parties want to stop them then some remaking of those parties will have to happen -- this is the only alternative to the Liberals propping up the NDP or the current Conservative party.

With Writ Drop on Horizon, Two Front Running Parties Tied: Harper Conservatives (33%, +5) Close Gap on Mulcair NDP (34%, -1) as Trudeau Liberals Tumble (25%, -4)

Tory Rally Due to Rising Approval Rate (44%, +3) and Plummeting Liberals, Child-Care Benefit Cheques Have Negligible Impact

The election will be won or lost in the key regions of Canada which hold the most seats in the House of Commons, most notably Ontario and Quebec. The current geographic breakdown of the findings are:

• In Ontario, the Conservatives (37%) lead the NDP (32%) and Liberals (28%), while the Greens (2%) and others (1%) trail. This is the tightest race of all the regions of the country.
• In Quebec, the NDP (37%) continues to have a commanding lead over the Liberals (24%), Bloc (21%), Conservatives (15%), Greens (2%) and others (1%).
• In BC, the NDP (39%) is ahead of the Conservatives (32%), Liberals (20%) and Greens (9%) by a healthy margin.
• In Alberta, the Tories (57%) have advanced their lead over the NDP (28%) Liberals (11%), Greens (3%) and others (1%).
• In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Tories (39%) lead the NDP (32%), Liberals (25%) and Greens (3%).
• In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (41%) enjoy the lead, with the NDP (32%), Conservatives (24%) and Greens (3%) trailing.

Voters’ second choice gives glimpse into possible vote shifting: NDP has most to gain…

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6925

-  latest polling

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

Green voters face difficult choice in federal election, says pollster

“At this point, you know, to have a discussion of whether the NDP can form the government four months before the election is definitely uncharted territory,” Canseco said.

What this does, according to him, is spur the voters who might have been considering the Liberals, who are currently languishing behind the Conservatives and New Democrats, to reassess their choices.

As a side note, Canseco said Liberals used to use against the NDP the argument that the only way to defeat the Conservatives is to vote Liberal.

Back to the NDP’s promising prospects even before the writ is dropped, Canseco said: “You’re starting to have this conversation at an earlier time. You could be having your own struggle in your mind if you’re trying to figure out who you’re going to vote for if you want to get rid of [Conservative Prime Minister Stephen] Harper or if you’re upset with the Harper government: ‘What is going to happen with your vote?’ And you know, mostly it’s the kind of discussion that is half ideological and half pragmatic. You know you want to vote for a party that’s going to have a chance to win.”

http://www.straight.com/news/499016/green-voters-face-difficult-choice-f...

NorthReport wrote:

NDP on top as voters show 'fatigue' with Conservative government

Trudeau's star power waning?

Lydia Miljan, an associate professor of political science at the University of Windsor, said the election is turning into a two-way race between the Conservatives and the NDP.

She calls the support for the NDP an “artifact” of the spring Alberta government election, noting that if the most Conservative province in the country could vote in an NDP government, it sets other people thinking differently about the party.

“Perhaps they’re not as scary as they once were,” she said.

That said, Miljan believes Mulcair hasn’t necessarily resonated with voters outside of central Canada. She said his task is still to become better known in British Columbia and Alberta “and get people to like him.”

While the Liberals enjoyed a lot of support from the public over the last couple of years thanks to Trudeau’s star power, that is waning because of the lack of substance in his announcements, Miljan said.

Policies announced in the summer have fizzled because they were full of grandiose plans but not much detail. “Likewise, he’s made some pretty strategic errors,” Miljan noted.

She pointed to the failure of the Eve Adams, who crossed the floor from the Conservatives, to secure the nomination in her riding for the Liberals this week. That failure, Miljan said, “tarnishes Trudeau’s reputation and his judgment. That doesn’t help the more general decline of the Liberals and people thinking about Justin Trudeau.”

http://www.nationalobserver.com/2015/07/29/news/ndp-top-voters-show-fati...

That would be Lydia Miljan of the Fraser Institute

NorthReport wrote:

Phenomenal polling results out tonite for Mulcair and the NDP team.

Nanos Research surveyed 1,000 adult Canadians and found the following:

• Two in three respondents agree it is “time for a change in government.”
• Harper’s position as the leader most trusted to manage the economy has fallen 10 points since 2009. He is now tied with NDP Leader Tom Mulcair. Liberal Justin Trudeau lags far behind

---------------------

Most trusted economic manager

Since 2009, the NDP has made an astonishing gain on the Nanos Research question of “whom do you trust to manage the economy?”

In the new poll, 31 per cent choose Harper, 31 per cent choose Mulcair, 18 per cent choose Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, four per cent opt for Green leader Elizabeth May, one per cent pick Gilles Duceppe and 15 per cent are unsure.

That’s compared to a 2009 Nanos poll in which only 10 per cent chose the NDP Leader (then Jack Layton) as the most trusted economic manager, 27 per cent picked the Liberal leader (then Michael Ignatieff) and 41 per cent opted for Harper.

The NDP’s gain on the economic management question appears to come almost equally at the expense of the Conservatives and the Liberals.

However, in the key battleground of Ontario, Stephen Harper still appears to have an edge. In that province, 34 per cent choose him, compared to the 27 per cent who pick Mulcair and the 22 per cent who opt for Trudeau.

Harper is also ahead on that economic management question in the Prairies.

Mulcair, meanwhile, is the most trusted in Quebec, the Atlantic provinces and British Columbia.

Trudeau fares best among Atlantic respondents, where 25 per cent choose him, compared to the 20 per cent who choose Harper and 31 per cent who pick Mulcair.

The poll also suggests the question of “who is most trusted with the economy” is very important to Canadians.

When asked whether “the policies of the Government of Canada have a major, minor or no role in the performance of the Canadian economy,” 78 per cent agree that it has a “major role.”

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/exclusive-poll-66-per-cent-of-voters-want...

Great news.  But for some bizarre reason they switched the colours on one of the pie charts that accompanies the article.  So they have the Liberals coloured orange and the NDP coloured red.  Annoying.  But, regardless, it's great news that the NDP are gaining trust on the economy.  As we've always known here, egalitarian government and sound economic management is not a contradiction.  Hopefully all of Canada will realize this come October.

66% sounds like a lot, and it should be, but 63% voted for a change from Harper in 2011 and look where we are now.

Stockholm wrote:

JeffWells wrote:

66% sounds like a lot, and it should be, but 63% voted for a change from Harper in 2011 and look where we are now.

How do you figure that? The Tories took 40% of the vote in 2011

You're right. My mistake. I was thinking of 2008.

EKOS is expected Friday, right? Looks like Frank Graves has begun to tease the results. Last night he tweeted a link to Chantal Hebert's January piece "Electoral prospects looking grim for Thomas Mulcair’s NDP." I presume he's suggesting the dramatic reversal of fortune continues.

They were discussing these truly amazin' results for Mulcair on CTV this morning, suggesting it was mind-boggling and unprecedented for the NDP to have this much credibility on the economy. It's obvious voters are not buying Trudeau's gobbledygook on the economy.

"Whom do you trust to manage the economy?”

Mulcair - 31%

Harper - 31%

Trudeau - 18%

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/exclusive-poll-66-per-cent-of-voters-want...

True.  He could be indicating that there's a huge upswing in Liberal support.  I guess we'll see.

Re: post #178.

Has he found that the NDP support in Ontario has gone up even more recently?  Be interesting to see the next EKOS poll.

Here we go.

Ontario is currently the only thing preventing a NDP majority

Party / Jul 17

NDP / 33%

Cons / 29%

Libs / 26%

DLivings - thanks.

Is you link still working?

There was something about 1/3 of the Liberals voters are now voting NDP

DLivings wrote:

And from Forum today:

NDP - 33

Cons - 33

Lib -25

 

The poll has been removed from the Wikipedia page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

It's all back there now showing the Liberals continuing to fade now 8% behind the tied for the lead NDP & Cons

All this bullshit about the Cons "Not Ready ad is making NDPers vote Liberal is exactly that: utter bullshit, as the Liberals are continuing to drop in the polls. Who knew!

And the Toronto Star has done their very best this morning to try and hide the fact that Trudeau continues to lose support now at a very low 25%, which is only 6% above the Liberals disastrous showing in 2011

There is something surreal about the coverage here.

Forget who we are talking about -- in cold terms.

A party after nine years headed into an election as a government -- in a recession -- only tied with the opposition is not at advantage.

Sure they have more money -- but as the election unfolds they also have a hell of a record to defend that will get attentiona s the election wore on.

Back in 1993 -- look at what happened. Campbell was way ahead. We point to a dumb comment and an ad she did but that was not the full story or the explanation for the size of her defeat. The government's record and unpopularity really came to the fore as the election progressed and people really started to examine and judge.

There is little dout that the Conservatives will have an economic advantage but they are also defending a record that is almost impossible to defend.

Trudeau Liberals are experiencing a major polling trainwreck just as we approach the dropping of the writs

Trudeau Liberals today sit at 23%, only 4% above their worst showing ever in 2011 when the Liberals only won 34 seats

Trudeau Liberals today are a whopping 11% behind the  front-running NDP

Trudeau Liberals today have dropped a massive 27% against the NDP since Jul '14 

EKOS -  Monthly Averages

Month / Support / Change

Jul '15 / 24% / Down 1% 

Jun '15 / 25% / Down 3%

May '15 / 28% / Down 1%

Apr '15 / 29% / Down 1%

Mar '15 / 30% / Down 3%

Feb '15 / 33% / Unchanged

Jan '15 / 33% / Unchanged

Dec '14 / 33% / Down 1%

Nov '14 / 34% / Down 2%

Oct '14 / 36% / Down 2%

Sep '14 / 38% / Down 1%

Jul '15 / 39%

------------------------------

------------------------------

EKOS Regionals - Jul 28 '15

BC 

Party / Jul 14 / Jul 28 / Change

N / 41% / 40% / Down 1%, NDP in 1st place, NDP leads Cons by 11%, NDP more than doubles Libs, NDP leads 2rd place Libs by 21%

C / 27% / 29% / Up 2%

L / 20% / 19% / Down 1%

B/G / 9% / 10% / Up 1%

AB

Party / Jul 14 / Jul 28 / Change

N / 29% / 32% / Up 3%, NDP in 2nd place, NDP trails  Cons by only 12%, NDP doubles Libs, NDP leads 3rd place Libs by 16% 

C / 49% / 44% / Down 5%

L / 15% / 16% / Up 1%

B/G / 

SK

Party / Jul 14 / Jul 28 / Change

N / 45% / 42% / Down 3%, NDP in 1st place, NDP leads Cons by 10%, NDP leads Libs by more than double, NDP leads 3rd place Libs by 26%

C / 34% / 32% / Down 2%

L / 12% / 16% / Up 4%

B/G / 

MB

Party / Jul 14 / Jul 28 / Change

N / 32% / 34% / Up 2%, NDP is closed second, NDP trails Cons by only 2%, NDP leads 3rd place Libs by 7% in Manitoba

C / 33% / 36% / Up 3%

L / 27% / 27% / Unchanged

B/G / 

ON

Party / Jul 14 / Jul 28 / Change

N / 27% / 30% / Up 3%, NDP in 2nd place, NDP trails Cons by only 3%, NDP leads 3rd place Libs by 1%

C / 33% / 33% / Unchanged

L / 29% / 29% / Unchanged

B/G / 

QC

Party / Jul 14 / Jul 28 / Change

N / 37% / 36% / Down 1%, NDP in 1st place, NDP leads Cons by 15%, NDP leads BQ by 16%, NDP more than doubles Libs, NDP leads 4th place Libs by 19%  

C / 15% / 21% / Up 6%

L / 19% / 17% / Down 2%

B/G / 23% / 20% / Down 3%

AC  

Party / Jul 14 / Jul 28 / Change

N / 31% / 33% / Up 2%, NDP in 2nd place, NDP leads Cons by 9%, NDP has closed gap with Libs to only 4%

C / 25% / 24% / Down 1%

L / 38% / 37% / Down 1% 

B/G / 

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  15m15 minutes ago

Norman Spector retweeted Don Martin

Mulcair hold on seat-rich QC franco vote is #NDP key 2 power; if that holds, hard 2C where #LPC climbs out of #3

Norman Spector added,

Don Martin @DonMartinCTVSome fun (but useful) advice for Trudeau from @AGMacDougall, the best communications director Harper ever had.... http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/macdougall-some-sincere-advice-fo...…

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  2h2 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted National Newswatch

Looks like Orange door or Blue door, with Junior serving in PM Mulcair's cabinet!

Norman Spector added,

National Newswatch @natnewswatchThe EKOS poll: Vote-splitting in Ontario boosting Conservative hopes http://ipolitics.ca/2015/07/31/the-ekos-poll-vote-splitting-in-ontario-b...…