Latest polling thread July 14, 2015

Here is the latest polling for parties and leadership as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

More details will be forthcoming tomorrow I believe

Nanos

Canada Party Power Index

NDP / 55

Cons / 53

 

Preferred PM

MUlcair / 28%

Harper / 31%

Trudeau 22%

 

Qualities of a good leader

Mulcair  / 59%

Harper / 55%

Duceppe / 47%

Trudeau / 44%

 

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/nanos-on-the-numbers/ndp-numbers-plateau-...

FEDERAL ELECTION: The nation's high-stakes poker game

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/national/federal-election-nations-high-...

Tuesday, August 04, 2015 The Liberal Exec for Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine have resigned, quit the Liberal Party and joined the NDP

 

"Port-Daniel) Eight members of the executive of the Liberal Association for the riding of Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine resign to join the New Democratic Party in protest against what they call "a lack of transparency and democracy. " 

Le Soleil / Google Translate

http://buckdogpolitics.blogspot.ca/2015/08/the-liberal-exec-for-gaspesie...

 

http://www.robbinssceresearch.com/polls/poll_1055.html

 

Question #1 If the federal election were held today which leader and party would get your vote (adjusted)?

Tom Mulcair and New Democratic Party of Canada    35.51 %

Justin Trudeau and Liberal Party of Canada    29.64 %

Stephen Harper and Conservative Party of Canada    27.51 %

Elizabeth May and Green Party of Canada    5.81 %

Gilles Duceppe and Bloc Quebecois Party    2.12 %

Other    0.62 %

Undecided/Don't know    6.77 %

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

 

Latest Polling - Aug 6 '15

Bear in mind that we have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. As we all well know, unfortunately there are a lot of dirty tricks in politics. Now here is one hypothetical scenario: Say you were a Conservatve supporting pollster, who wanted the Conservatives to win. What would be your strategy with your polls? Maybe it would be, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over the 3rd place party, it could be helpful to show both the NDP and the 3rd place party closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'  

Anyway as we get closer to the actual election date, herding is the one thing to watch out for in the polls.

 

Canadawide

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

Regionals 

Pop Vote

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

 

 

Pop Vote

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canada's Political Trends:

Seats:

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

Canada's Political Trends:

Popular Vote:

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

---------------------------

 

Long election. They have to pace themselves.

I am suspicious that there is not an EKOS poll today...  That the Liberals have fallen and the Conservatives have increased enough that Mr. Graves wants to delay the results.  I can't recall EKOS not having a Friday poll.  It is Friday, isn't it?

Perhaps EKOS is waiting for the debate to sink in before doing a poll.

Frank Graves tweeted that he was not doing a release this week but that his numbers were virtually identical to last week - which was NDP 34%, CPC 30%, LPC 23%

Stockholm wrote:

Frank Graves tweeted that he was not doing a release this week but that his numbers were virtually identical to last week - which was NDP 34%, CPC 30%, LPC 23%

Good to hear.  Be interesting to see if the debate had any effect next week.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

---------------------------

Aug 8 '15 - We now have apart from the Canadawide popular vote polling,  sections for regional and leadership (best choice for prime minister) polling

Today for example Mainstreet Research has announced the following polling:

BC Popular Vote

NDP / 37%

Cons / 23%

Libs / 26%

Grn / 5% 

-------------------

BC Leadership (Best Prime Minister) Vote:

Mulcair / 34%

Harper / 21%

Trudeau / 27%

May / 2%

------------

BC - Election Winner:

NDP / 37%

Cons / 28%

Libs / 24%

Grns / 2%

----------------------------------

Aug 6 '15 Latest Polling 

Bear in mind that we have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. As we all well know, unfortunately there are a lot of dirty tricks in politics. Now here is one hypothetical scenario: Say you were a Conservatve supporting pollster, who wanted the Conservatives to win. What would be your strategy with your polls? Maybe it would be, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over the 3rd place party, it could be helpful to show both the NDP and the 3rd place party closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'  

Anyway as we get closer to the actual election date, herding is the one thing to watch out for in the polls.

 

Canadawide

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

Regionals 

Regional Election Results, 2011 - Pop Vote

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

Regionals - All - Pop Vote

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------

Regionals AB - Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

---------

Regionals AC - Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

Regionals BC - Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

----------------------

Regionals Prairies - Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

Regionals SK - Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

Regionals MB - Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

Regionals  ON- Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--

Regionals  QC- Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

 

-

Regionals  AC- Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

Regionals  NL- Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

Regionals NB - Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--

Regionals  PE- Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

Regionals  NS- Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-

Regionals  Terrritories- Pop Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

 

Reagonals - Leadership - Best Prime Minister - BC

Date / Pollster / Mulcair, Change / Harper, Change / Trudeau, Change / DuceppeMay, Change - Mulcair leads by 7%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 34% / 21% / 27% / 2%

-----------------------------------

 

Canada's Political Trends:

Seats:

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

Canada's Political Trends:

Popular Vote:

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

---------------------------

8,800

 

 

Though the Mainstreet poll was only of debate watchers, which might underestimate Conservatives.

bekayne wrote:

Though the Mainstreet poll was only of debate watchers, which might underestimate Conservatives.

Yeah, if Mainstreet wasn't such an amateurish fly by night operation maybe they would tell us what proportion of people they contacted claimed to have watched the debate andf they would have asked vote intention of both debate watchers and non-watchers in ordfer to see whether the debate audience was skewed towards or away from supporters of any party.

That being said, if anything the audience watching debates is usually older, more male and more of a close follower of politics and I think that if anything that would tend to skew more Conservative

I think it's obvious that this Mainstreet crowd has no credibility. I wouldn't put much stock in their numbers.

Acording to a new Forum Reseach poll. Conservative Joe Oliver, is holding a seven-point lead in Eglinton-Lawrence over Liberal challenger Marco Mendicino. What is more interesting is that the NDP has 20% support in that riding WITHOUT even nominating a candidate.

Says Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff, “The finance minister looks very comfortable in his riding, and that’s because the NDP, without even a nominated candidate, achieves one fifth of the vote. If this is extrapolated across the country, the Conservatives may be in safer territory than we think,"

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/09/joe-oliver-leading-in-egli...

terrytowel wrote:

Says Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff, “The finance minister looks very comfortable in his riding, and that’s because the NDP, without even a nominated candidate, achieves one fifth of the vote."

The President of a polling companiy of all people ought to know that a seven point lead is NOT "very comfortable" and in fact is within the margin of error...But I generally find that the most aggravating thing about polls by Forum is less the numbers themselves, than Lorne Bozinoffs idiotic ex-cathedra attempts to spin and torque his own results.

On the contrary, Eglinton-Lawrence is usually the WORST NDP riding in the whole City of Toronto. When the NDP was getting 17-18% of the vote nationally, they were usually getting 7-8% in Eglinton-Lawrence. 20% for the NDP in that riding is positively stratospheric.

Stockholm wrote:

On the contrary, Eglinton-Lawrence is usually the WORST NDP riding in the whole City of Toronto. When the NDP was getting 17-18% of the vote nationally, they were usually getting 7-8% in Eglinton-Lawrence. 20% for the NDP in that riding is positively stratospheric.

Which was Forum whole point. That vote splitting is still very much in play in riding across the country. The Liberals would win Eglinton-Lawrence in a cakewalk. However because they are bleeding support to the NDP, its allowing the Cons to come up the middle.

Misfit wrote:

TT, and remember, you said yourself that Hazel McCallion told the people of Mississauga to vote Liberal, so they will.

I agree with that. That is why the Liberals will SWEEP Mississauga and the NDP won't even make a dent in Mississauga, despite the orange wave.

Stockholm wrote:

On the contrary, Eglinton-Lawrence is usually the WORST NDP riding in the whole City of Toronto. When the NDP was getting 17-18% of the vote nationally, they were usually getting 7-8% in Eglinton-Lawrence. 20% for the NDP in that riding is positively stratospheric.

Though Eg-Law is a funny place--it's been more like they've had poteaux-or-worse as provincial and federal candidates; however, the western parts of the seat have more of a suppressed "Lib vs NDP" natural condition (much as in St Pauls or York Centre). and much of it was represented municipally by Howard Moscoe for years.

I'd put Don Valley West up front in "worst riding for the NDP" terms.

Stockholm wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

I agree with that. That is why the Liberals will SWEEP Mississauga and the NDP won't even make a dent in Mississauga, despite the orange wave.

She alwayts backs the Liberals and yet the Tories swept Mississauga last election...I expect the Liberals to pick up a few seats and for the Mississauga overall to split its seats. The NDP might snag one if its lucky, but Brampton is a more "target rich environment"

NOT TRUE She didn't endorse Ignatieff, Dion, Martin or Chretien EVER.

quizzical wrote:

po she endorsed Dion  way over the top!!!

No she just applauded his infrastructure plans, but stopped short of an endorsement.

From 2008 Election (where Dion was leader) and Liberal Bonnie Crombie was runnning against floor crosser Wajid Khan

Although Mississauga Mayor Hazel McCallion did not openly support any candidate, her position in all elections, Bonnie Crombie says the mayor is very supportive of contributing and active residents of Mississauga. Khan is not a resident of Hazelwood, and Mississauga-Streetsville is the mayor's riding.

Add those two factors together and you've got a chill cast your way that's so cold it would make the mountains on a bottle of Coors beer turn bluer than Steven Harper's sweater.

McCallion's also not fond of politicians changing stripes. By the way, Hazel attended Bonnie's victory party. Say no more.

http://www.torontosun.com/comment/columnists/ted_woloshyn/2008/10/18/712...

 

quizzical wrote:

and you're wrong as always. she sure did.

just give it  google or bing or whatever but stop making shit up okay?

See post #295

http://rabble.ca/babble/election-2015/latest-polling-thread-july-14-2015...

quizzical wrote:

dont give a shit about Hazel McCallion whoever she is.

Please refrain from profanity, as it is against the rules here. As such I have no choice but to flag your post for excessive profanity, and report you to the moderators.

It sounds like TerryT...l has abandoned his "IT'S OVER" chant and has resumed his former role as a Liberal acolyte.