I guess IT'S OVER is OVER :-)
Latest polling thread July 14, 2015
Sun, 2015-08-09 18:03
#302
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:15
#303
Misfit
The spelling is Gandhi, not Ghandi.
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:17
#304
As Gandhi said "You must first become what you seek to change"
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:27
#305
saying shit is against the rules here?
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:28
#306
Arthur Cramer
No, saying s*** is not against the rules. People have been saying all sorts of it here for years. LOL!
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:28
#307
Terrytowel, don't try and tell the Mods what their job did. The las LPC shill that did that almost got banned. Worry about yourself TT. No one is impressed with either your bluster, or your threats.
It sounds like TerryT...l has abandoned his "IT'S OVER" chant and has resumed his former role as a Liberal acolyte.
No I do think "IT'S OVER"
But my point is profanity should NOT be used on this board. It clearly states that in the Comments rules
"Be respectful. Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited. Instigating arguments in a disrespectful way is also prohibited."
That is the issue. Not that I was shilling for the Liberals (which I was NOT, because again "IT'S OVER! for them) The issue was that profanity was used in response to something I said. That is why I reported the post to the mods because profanity is NOT allowed here.
But based on Nicky and Arthur Cramer response, it seems like they think profanity should be used here all the time.
For the record I follow ALL the rules and I have never ONCE got reprimanded or even suspended.
Sean in Ottawa says it the best at the link below
http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551
Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. But then again you ain't no Sean in Ottawa.
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:30
#308
No, saying s*** is not against the rules. People have been saying all sorts of it here for years. LOL!
If that is the case why didn't you just write out the word, instead of hiding it with a bunch of ***
We should wait to see what MegB has to say.
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:55
#309
Arthur Cramer
No, saying s*** is not against the rules. People have been saying all sorts of it here for years. LOL!
If that is the case why didn't you just write out the word, instead of hiding it with a bunch of ***
We should wait to see what MegB has to say.
Shit
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:56
#310
Arthur Cramer
SHit
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:56
#311
Arthur Cramer
SHIt
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:56
#312
Arthur Cramer
SHIT
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:56
#313
Arthur Cramer
SHIT!
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:57
#314
Arthur Cramer
Terrtowl, you are some interesting piece of work.
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:58
#315
Arthur Cramer
As I said Terrytowel, you aren't a Mod!
Sun, 2015-08-09 19:59
#316
saying shit is excess profanity? omfg
Sun, 2015-08-09 20:02
#317
As I said Terrytowel, you aren't a Mod!
But is he a rocker?
Sun, 2015-08-09 20:03
#318
Shit, you mean I can't say shit? Why didn't anyone- Shit!! I did it agai- SHIT!!!
Aw fuck it. Never mind.
Sun, 2015-08-09 22:59
#319
Sun, 2015-08-09 23:21
#320
Arthur Cramer
Shit, you mean I can't say shit? Why didn't anyone- Shit!! I did it agai- SHIT!!! Aw fuck it. Never mind.LOL!!!!
Sun, 2015-08-09 23:21
#321
Terrytowel, don't try and tell the Mods what their job did. The las LPC shill that did that almost got banned. Worry about yourself TT. No one is impressed with either your bluster, or your threats.
It sounds like TerryT...l has abandoned his "IT'S OVER" chant and has resumed his former role as a Liberal acolyte.No I do think "IT'S OVER"
But my point is profanity should NOT be used on this board. It clearly states that in the Comments rules
"Be respectful. Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited. Instigating arguments in a disrespectful way is also prohibited."
That is the issue. Not that I was shilling for the Liberals (which I was NOT, because again "IT'S OVER! for them) The issue was that profanity was used in response to something I said. That is why I reported the post to the mods because profanity is NOT allowed here.
But based on Nicky and Arthur Cramer response, it seems like they think profanity should be used here all the time.
For the record I follow ALL the rules and I have never ONCE got reprimanded or even suspended.
Sean in Ottawa says it the best at the link below
http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551
Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. But then again you ain't no Sean in Ottawa.
I guess the key words are "excess profanity". If they were to ban everyone who used profanity this board would consist of very few people. I have never used profanity on this board or anywhere on the net but that is a personal choice and not a reflection of my interpretation of the rules.
Sun, 2015-08-09 23:24
#322
Arthur Cramer
I guess the key words are "excess profanity". If they were to ban everyone who used profanity this board would consist of very few people. I have never used profanity on this board or anywhere on the net but that is a personal choice and not a reflection of my interpretation of the rules.Terrytowel, don't try and tell the Mods what their job did. The las LPC shill that did that almost got banned. Worry about yourself TT. No one is impressed with either your bluster, or your threats.
It sounds like TerryT...l has abandoned his "IT'S OVER" chant and has resumed his former role as a Liberal acolyte.No I do think "IT'S OVER"
But my point is profanity should NOT be used on this board. It clearly states that in the Comments rules
"Be respectful. Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited. Instigating arguments in a disrespectful way is also prohibited."
That is the issue. Not that I was shilling for the Liberals (which I was NOT, because again "IT'S OVER! for them) The issue was that profanity was used in response to something I said. That is why I reported the post to the mods because profanity is NOT allowed here.
But based on Nicky and Arthur Cramer response, it seems like they think profanity should be used here all the time.
For the record I follow ALL the rules and I have never ONCE got reprimanded or even suspended.
Sean in Ottawa says it the best at the link below
http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551
Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. But then again you ain't no Sean in Ottawa.
That's lovely Terrytowel, would you like a gold star?
Sun, 2015-08-09 23:27
#323
I guess the key words are "excess profanity". If they were to ban everyone who used profanity this board would consist of very few people. I have never used profanity on this board or anywhere on the net but that is a personal choice and not a reflection of my interpretation of the rules.Terrytowel, don't try and tell the Mods what their job did. The las LPC shill that did that almost got banned. Worry about yourself TT. No one is impressed with either your bluster, or your threats.
It sounds like TerryT...l has abandoned his "IT'S OVER" chant and has resumed his former role as a Liberal acolyte.No I do think "IT'S OVER"
But my point is profanity should NOT be used on this board. It clearly states that in the Comments rules
"Be respectful. Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited. Instigating arguments in a disrespectful way is also prohibited."
That is the issue. Not that I was shilling for the Liberals (which I was NOT, because again "IT'S OVER! for them) The issue was that profanity was used in response to something I said. That is why I reported the post to the mods because profanity is NOT allowed here.
But based on Nicky and Arthur Cramer response, it seems like they think profanity should be used here all the time.
For the record I follow ALL the rules and I have never ONCE got reprimanded or even suspended.
Sean in Ottawa says it the best at the link below
http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551
Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. But then again you ain't no Sean in Ottawa.
That's lovely Terrytowel, would you like a gold star?
I wrote that Arthur. My point is peole want to use obscenities I find it no big deal and I can't understand why TT has decided this is a big deal now.
Mon, 2015-08-10 02:56
#324
Left Turn
Which was Forum whole point. That vote splitting is still very much in play in riding across the country. The Liberals would win Eglinton-Lawrence in a cakewalk. However because they are bleeding support to the NDP, its allowing the Cons to come up the middle.
Vancouver South could play out in a similar way. The Conservatives could lose votes and still win with the Liberals losing more votes to the NDP.
Mon, 2015-08-10 03:11
#325
Don't take anything from Forum seriously. Better off reading tea leaves.
Mon, 2015-08-10 03:42
#326
Arthur Cramer
I wrote that Arthur. My point is peole want to use obscenities I find it no big deal and I can't understand why TT has decided this is a big deal now.I guess the key words are "excess profanity". If they were to ban everyone who used profanity this board would consist of very few people. I have never used profanity on this board or anywhere on the net but that is a personal choice and not a reflection of my interpretation of the rules.Terrytowel, don't try and tell the Mods what their job did. The las LPC shill that did that almost got banned. Worry about yourself TT. No one is impressed with either your bluster, or your threats.
It sounds like TerryT...l has abandoned his "IT'S OVER" chant and has resumed his former role as a Liberal acolyte.No I do think "IT'S OVER"
But my point is profanity should NOT be used on this board. It clearly states that in the Comments rules
"Be respectful. Personal attacks, excess profanity, oppressive and aggressive behaviour are prohibited. Instigating arguments in a disrespectful way is also prohibited."
That is the issue. Not that I was shilling for the Liberals (which I was NOT, because again "IT'S OVER! for them) The issue was that profanity was used in response to something I said. That is why I reported the post to the mods because profanity is NOT allowed here.
But based on Nicky and Arthur Cramer response, it seems like they think profanity should be used here all the time.
For the record I follow ALL the rules and I have never ONCE got reprimanded or even suspended.
Sean in Ottawa says it the best at the link below
http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551
Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. But then again you ain't no Sean in Ottawa.
That's lovely Terrytowel, would you like a gold star?
I know that jjaures. Was taking a shot at TT. He's just trying to stir the put like someone else used to. And be as condescending as the other guy used to be.
Mon, 2015-08-10 04:57
#327
When I see there is a lot of activity on the polling thread I expectently click on it to read about new polling.
Instead I see a lot of utter drivel from the tedious Terryt...l. And childish threats to flag everyione who rises to his rancid bait.
I have to admit that I have risen to his bait a few times myself (and been subject to any number of his whiny complaints).
But we have a serious election to discuss, a discussion which he repeatedly disrails with near idiocy.
I am therefore going to sign a pleadge that for the balance of the election campaign I will ignore TerryT...l. For the sake of elevating Babble to a higher level I urge you all to do likewise.
To get back on topic, this seems to be the closest thing to a poll in the media today.
http://www.gigcity.ca/2015/08/09/folk-fest-fans-back-ndp-captain-obvious...
Mon, 2015-08-10 08:52
#328
FWIW, here is some polling news.
From Innovative Research Group: an online survey of 2,833 between July 24 and July 30:
- the NDP is likely to make gains in 45 seats where the Liberals won with either a strong majority or two-way races in the 2011 election and another 33 close seats between the Conservatives and NDP in the last election, now transposed under new ridings.
...
The survey revealed that in the 45 seats across the country that are Liberal two-way races or strong wins based on the last election results, the NDP now had the support of 30.5 per cent of Canadians, the Liberals 35.9 and the Conservatives at 22 per cent. In the 2011 federal election, the Liberals had the support of 39.2 per cent, NDP 21 per cent and the Conservatives 35 per cent. This means the NDP has come up from 18 points behind to 5.5 points behind. The Liberal support has gone down by about four points and the Conservative support has gone down by about 12 points.
In the two-way races between the Conservative Party and the NDP in 33 ridings across the country, the survey indicated the NDP vote had remained almost the same while the Conservative had gone down and the Liberal vote had gone up. In the 2011 election, the Conservatives won 42.8 per cent of the votes, Liberal Party nine per cent, and the NDP 40.9 per cent. The survey results showed the Conservative Party support was at 26.3 per cent, the Liberals at 22.2 per cent and the NDP at 40.4 per cent.
Ironically, the Liberal support had more than doubled but it’s still not good enough to win the seats.
“The Liberal vote is moving in a way that doesn’t help them win seats,” Mr. Lyle said.
https://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gain...
Mon, 2015-08-10 08:54
#329
I am therefore going to sign a pleadge that for the balance of the election campaign I will ignore TerryT...l. For the sake of elevating Babble to a higher level I urge you all to do likewise.
It is interesting that Nicky & Arthur are attacking me because I pointed out profanity should NOT be used on this board. Which are the rules. Now you are attacking me for suggesting we FOLLOW the rules on rabble?
My final word last night was to say let's wait to hear what MegB has to say. That should of been the end of it. Instead of letting that stand, Arthur delivers a litany of profanity on multiple threads. And Arthur says I'm 'stirring the pot'?
That is great Nicky wants "elevating Babble to a higher level"?. But how many times have you been suspended for "elevating Babble to a higher level"? So much for Nicky wanting to "elevating Babble to a higher level"?
Yet I myself have never been suspened or reprimanded. I follow all the rules, and never ONCE been taken to task by the moderators. And I have NEVER attacked anyone personally on this board as Sean in Ottawa says in this link below.
http://rabble.ca/comment/1504551#comment-1504551
And you say you are the one who is "elevating Babble to a higher level" by getting suspended for personal attacks? It will be great if both Arthur & Nicky want to ignore me. Because all they do attack others personally and quite viciously who don't drink the kool-aid. That doesn't realy add anything to the discussion here on rabble with the insults that are thrown by these two. And you say I'm the problem here on rabble?
Nicky and Arthur Cramer you could learn a few things from Sean in Ottawa. He is a role model who shows you can agree to disagree respectfully WITHOUT personal attacks. But then again Nicky and Arthur Cramer ain't no Sean in Ottawa.
Mon, 2015-08-10 11:39
#330
FWIW, here is some polling news.
From Innovative Research Group: an online survey of 2,833 between July 24 and July 30:
Actually, it's the same poll they released last Monday:
http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/03/handicapping-election-cons...
From July 24 to 30, Innovative Research Group Inc. conducted an online survey of 2,833 Canadians to explore the underlying dimensions of Canada’s impending election. Like most pollsters, we show the NDP currently in the lead with 33.7 per cent of the decided vote, the Conservatives second at 29.3 per cent and the Liberals third at 25.8 per cent.
Mon, 2015-08-10 11:46
#331
I am therefore going to sign a pleadge that for the balance of the election campaign I will ignore TerryT...l. For the sake of elevating Babble to a higher level I urge you all to do likewise.
It is interesting that Nicky & Arthur are attacking me because I pointed out profanity should NOT be used on this board. Which are the rules. Now you are attacking me for suggesting we FOLLOW the rules on rabble?
Personal attacks are not accepted behaviours on babble, so nicky and AC lay off. Profanity, on the other hand, is allowed when not used in a personal attack.
Mon, 2015-08-10 13:25
#332
Arthur Cramer
OK Meg, that's fair, even though TT is being deliberately provocative. I'l take your advice. I'm not going to respond to him anymore. He wins. He's on my ignore list now. As is said, if you have nothing good to say, don't say anything at all. I'd suggest everyone posting here consider this.
Mon, 2015-08-10 14:19
#333
This has really degenerated into the dullest most uninformative thread i have ever seen on babble...count me out!
Mon, 2015-08-10 14:20
#334
Personal attacks are not accepted behaviours on babble, so nicky and AC lay off. Profanity, on the other hand, is allowed when not used in a personal attack.
Thanks you MegB for clarifying the rules. That was all I had asked before being viciously attacked by Nicky and AC. All for the suggestion we follow the rules by avoiding profanity on this board. That DOES NOT warrant a vicious attack like that.
OK Meg, that's fair, even though TT is being deliberately provocative. I'l take your advice. I'm not going to respond to him anymore. He wins. He's on my ignore list now. As is said, if you have nothing good to say, don't say anything at all. I'd suggest everyone posting here consider this.
Now Arthur is playing the victim like I FORCED him to viciously attack me. Saying it was my being "provocative" that caused him to lash out. That is like saying I walked down the street without a shirt, and invited other guys to grope me.
Like you take NO responsibility? Blaming everyone else for your own actions?
So I'm holding both AC & Nicky to their word. Anytime they respond to something I saw, I will bring up this posting. I hope AC & Nicky keep their word and IGNORE me. That way the less personal attacks around here the better for EVERYONE.
Mon, 2015-08-10 14:20
#335
This has really degenerated into the dullest most uninformative thread i have ever seen on babble...count me out!
Just avoid profanity and we won't have this problem.
Mon, 2015-08-10 14:40
#336
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working
---------------------------
Polling details here are in the following order:
1 Preamble:
2 Latest polling details
3 Canadawide Polling
4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011
5 Regional Polling
6 Canadawide Leadership Polling
7 Regional Leadership Polling
8 Political Trends Seats
9 Political Trends Popular Vote
---------------------------------------------------------
1 Preamble
We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'
As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.
* - see Nate Silver
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest polling details:
Aug 10 '15
NDP - 34%
Cons - 29%
Libs - 26%
New Democrats making gains in 45 Liberal Party two-way races, says pollster Lyle
http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gains...
-------------------------------------------------------------
Aug 8 '15
Popular Vote - BC
NDP / 37%
Cons / 23%
Libs / 26%
Grn / 5%
-------------------
Best Prime Minister - BC
Mulcair / 34%
Harper / 21%
Trudeau / 27%
May / 2%
------------
Election Winner - BC
NDP / 37%
Cons / 28%
Libs / 24%
Grns / 2%
---------------------------------
3 Canadawide Polling
Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change
May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19%
Jul 30 '15 / Innovative Research / 34% / 29% / 26%
Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3%
Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex
Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex
Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex
Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex
Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster
Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6%
Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex
Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex
Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%
Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster
------------------------------
4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011
Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC
NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% / 30%
Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%
Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%
BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?
----------------------------
5 Regional Polling
Regional Polling - Forum
Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC
NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%
Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*
Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%, -1% / 23%, +9% / Down
BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?
* denotes unchanged
------------------------------------------------
Regional Polling AB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
---------
Regional Polling AC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling BC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%
Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%
----------------------
Regional Polling Prairies
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-------------
Regional Polling SK
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling MB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling ON
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
--
Regional Polling QC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
------------
Regionals AC- Pop Vote
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling NL
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling NB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
--
Regionals Polling PE
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling NS
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling Terrritories
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-------------------------
6 Canadawide Leadership Polling
7 Regional Leadership Polling
Best Prime Minister Polling BC
Date / Pollster / Mulcair, Change / Harper, Change / Trudeau, Change / DuceppeMay, Change - Mulcair leads by 7%
Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 34% / 21% / 27% / 2%
-----------------------------------
8 Political Trends Seats
Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change
2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats
2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats / 116, Down 19 seats
2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats
2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats
--------------
9 Political Trends Popular Vote
Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change
2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%
2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%
2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%, Down 4%
2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%
---------------------------
10,100
Mon, 2015-08-10 14:45
#337
Just updated
Please post latest polling - thanks.
--------------
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working
---------------------------
Polling details here are in the following order:
1 Preamble:
2 Latest polling details
3 Canadawide Polling
4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011
5 Regional Polling
6 Canadawide Leadership Polling
7 Regional Leadership Polling
8 Political Trends Seats
9 Political Trends Popular Vote
---------------------------------------------------------
1 Preamble
We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'
As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.
* - see Nate Silver
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Latest polling details:
Aug 10 '15
NDP - 34%
Cons - 29%
Libs - 26%
New Democrats making gains in 45 Liberal Party two-way races, says pollster Lyle
http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gains...
-------------------------------------------------------------
Aug 8 '15
Popular Vote - BC
NDP / 37%
Cons / 23%
Libs / 26%
Grn / 5%
-------------------
Best Prime Minister - BC
Mulcair / 34%
Harper / 21%
Trudeau / 27%
May / 2%
------------
Election Winner - BC
NDP / 37%
Cons / 28%
Libs / 24%
Grns / 2%
---------------------------------
3 Canadawide Polling
Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change
May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19%
Jul 30 '15 / Innovative Research / 34% / 29% / 26%
Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3%
Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex
Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex
Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex
Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex
Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster
Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6%
Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex
Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex
Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%
Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster
------------------------------
4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011
Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC
NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% / 30%
Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%
Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%
BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?
----------------------------
5 Regional Polling
Regional Polling - Forum
Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC
NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%
Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*
Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%, -1% / 23%, +9% / Down
BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?
* denotes unchanged
------------------------------------------------
Regional Polling AB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
---------
Regional Polling AC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling BC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%
Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%
----------------------
Regional Polling Prairies
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-------------
Regional Polling SK
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling MB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling ON
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
--
Regional Polling QC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
------------
Regionals AC- Pop Vote
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling NL
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling NB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
--
Regionals Polling PE
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling NS
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling Terrritories
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-------------------------
6 Canadawide Leadership Polling
7 Regional Leadership Polling
Best Prime Minister Polling BC
Date / Pollster / Mulcair, Change / Harper, Change / Trudeau, Change / DuceppeMay, Change - Mulcair leads by 7%
Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 34% / 21% / 27% / 2%
-----------------------------------
8 Political Trends Seats
Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change
2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats
2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats / 116, Down 19 seats
2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats
2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats
--------------
9 Political Trends Popular Vote
Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change
2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%
2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%
2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%, Down 4%
2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%
---------------------------
10,100
Mon, 2015-08-10 14:55
#338
Innovative Research pointed out that that “the online survey was not a random probability-based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated.”
Hmmm.
Mon, 2015-08-10 15:08
#339
Sounds about as reliable as any poll. 
Innovative Research pointed out that that “the online survey was not a random probability-based sample, a margin of error could not be calculated.”
Hmmm.
Mon, 2015-08-10 15:16
#340
Just updated
Please post latest polling - thanks.
--------------
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working
---------------------------
Polling details here are in the following order:
1 Preamble:
2 Latest polling details
3 Canadawide Polling
4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011
5 Regional Polling
6 Canadawide Leadership Polling
7 Regional Leadership Polling
8 Political Trends Seats
9 Political Trends Popular Vote
---------------------------------------------------------
1 Preamble
We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'
As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.
* - see Nate Silver
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2 Latest polling details:
Aug 3 '15
Globe and Mail Poll Tracker
If the election happened today, there is a ...
61% chance that the Conservatives get the most seats
40% chance that the NDP gets the most seats
0% chance that the Liberals gets the most seats
2% chance that the Green party gets more than one seat
1% chance that the gap between first and third party is less than 10 seats
10% chance that the Bloc regains official party status (more than 12 seats)
-----------------------------------
Aug 10 '15
NDP - 34%
Cons - 29%
Libs - 26%
New Democrats making gains in 45 Liberal Party two-way races, says pollster Lyle
http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2015/08/10/new-democrats-making-gains...
-------------------------------------------------------------
Aug 8 '15
Popular Vote - BC
NDP / 37%
Cons / 23%
Libs / 26%
Grn / 5%
-------------------
Best Prime Minister - BC
Mulcair / 34%
Harper / 21%
Trudeau / 27%
May / 2%
------------
Election Winner - BC
NDP / 37%
Cons / 28%
Libs / 24%
Grns / 2%
---------------------------------
3 Canadawide Polling
Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change
May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19%
Jul 30 '15 / Innovative Research / 34% / 29% / 26%
Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3%
Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex
Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex
Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex
Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex
Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster
Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6%
Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex
Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex
Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%
Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster
------------------------------
4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011
Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC
NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% / 30%
Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%
Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%
BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?
----------------------------
5 Regional Polling
Regional Polling - Forum
Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC
NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%
Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*
Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%, -1% / 23%, +9% / Down
BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?
* denotes unchanged
------------------------------------------------
Regional Polling AB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
---------
Regional Polling AC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling BC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%
Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%
----------------------
Regional Polling Prairies
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-------------
Regional Polling SK
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling MB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling ON
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
--
Regional Polling QC
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
------------
Regionals AC- Pop Vote
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling NL
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling NB
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
--
Regionals Polling PE
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling NS
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-
Regional Polling Terrritories
Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change
-------------------------
6 Canadawide Leadership Polling
7 Regional Leadership Polling
Best Prime Minister Polling BC
Date / Pollster / Mulcair, Change / Harper, Change / Trudeau, Change / DuceppeMay, Change - Mulcair leads by 7%
Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 34% / 21% / 27% / 2%
-----------------------------------
8 Political Trends Seats
Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change
2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats
2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats / 116, Down 19 seats
2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats
2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats
--------------
9 Political Trends Popular Vote
Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change
2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%
2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%
2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%, Down 4%
2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%
---------------------------
10,100
Mon, 2015-08-10 15:47
#341
Bruce Anderson of Abacus Data, National Newswatch, etc, part of the Liberal media complex has never met a Liberal he wasn't in love with it seems.
Mon, 2015-08-10 20:42
#342
Like I said earlier, the "new" poll from Innovative Research is actually last week's poll
Mon, 2015-08-10 21:34
#343
question: if you can't figure out the margin of error because its on line polling and random sampling can't be for sure then where does Angus Reids polling data fit in?
Tue, 2015-08-11 00:24
#344
quizzical,
When the NDP was behind in the polls NDPers didn't like the polls and whined about the methodology. Now the NDP are in 1st place, third place parties are now whining about the methodology. Go figure!
But Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid over the past 2 elections have been the most accurate federal pollsters when a process to control herding is taken into account.
Tue, 2015-08-11 09:39
#345
Nanos: CPC 31 NDP 30 LPC 29 G 5 B 4
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Ballot%202015-08-07E.pdf
Tue, 2015-08-11 09:51
#346
Seems the NDP have gone down a bit in Ontario and the prairies. Still strong in BC and Quebec, though.
Tue, 2015-08-11 11:41
#347
Nanos: CPC 31 NDP 30 LPC 29 G 5 B 4
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Ballot%202015-08-07E.pdf
An actual poll in the polling thread! You don't say!
Tue, 2015-08-11 11:51
#348
The Conservatives drop 3% in one week for "Party Consider to Vote For" in a 4 week rolling poll
Tue, 2015-08-11 12:32
#349
This o is of course the rolling Nanos poll spread over 4 weeks with 250 polled every week.
It is of limited value in assessing the current lie of the land, especially because only one day of polling occurred after the debate.
Even so, there is a fractional improvemnt for the NDP over the previous week, up 0.3 whereas the Cons are down 0.3 and the Liberals down 0.7
Tue, 2015-08-11 13:46
#350
Nanos - Jul 7 '15
Party / Jul 31 / Aug 7 / Change
NDP / 30% / 30% / Unchanged
Cons 32% / 31% / Down 1%
Libs / 29% / 29%/ Unchanged
Tue, 2015-08-11 16:54
#351
Ipsos: NDP 33 CPC 31 LPC 28.
http://globalnews.ca/news/2158996/leaders-debate-attack-ads-and-a-week-o...