Latest polling thread July 14, 2015

Just updated

Please post latest polling - thanks. 

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https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

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Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Polling

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

5 Regional Polling

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

8 Political Trends Seats

9 Political Trends Popular Vote

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1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

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2 Latest polling details:

Aug 10 '15

Ipsos Reid

N / 33%

C / 31%

L / 28%

BQ / 4%

Grns / 4%

Leaders’ debate, attack ads and a week of campaigning have little effect on voters, Ipsos poll shows

http://globalnews.ca/news/2158996/leaders-debate-attack-ads-and-a-week-o...

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3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31% / Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29%

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

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4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

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5 Regional Polling

Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

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Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

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Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

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Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

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Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

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Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

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Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

Best Prime Minister Polling BC

Date / Pollster / Mulcair, Change / Harper, Change / Trudeau, Change / DuceppeMay, Change - Mulcair leads by 7%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 34% / 21% / 27% / 2%

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8 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

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9 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

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10,900

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_fede...

Harper was and is busy throwing federal money around in marginal spread ridings. my riding changes this year and they desperately want to keep hinterland votes in the bag as the north part of this new riding is not for sure for them. we got a great deal of fed money first part of July.

NorthReport wrote:

Move Over May and Trudeau, BC is NDP-Conservative Battleground

Pressure not to 'split' anti-Harper vote will hurt Greens and Liberals here.

 

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/08/11/BC-NDP-Conservative-Battleground/

Bill Tieleman, of course.

Today's Forum:

NDP 34
Cons. 28
Lib. 27

http://t.thestar.com/#/article/news/canada/2015/08/13/mulcair-seen-as-sk...

The new numbers, provided to Global News by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP), see the NDP winning 128 seats, Harper and the Conservatives at 121 and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals at 86, if an election were held today.

“Public opinion isn’t always changing dramatically. Now we have had two months where things haven’t changed,” said Barry Kay, a politics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University. “It’s really a pick in between the NDP and the Conservatives in terms of seats.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/2162903/ndp-lead-continues-to-hold-across-cana...

As I had said MONTHS ago. For Justin Trudeau and the Liberals "IT'S OVER!"

Care to agree now Sean in Ottawa?

josh wrote:

Nothing is over till it's over.

Not according to Barry Kay

Now we have had two months where things haven’t changed,” said Barry Kay, a politics professor at Wilfrid Laurier University. “It’s really a pick in between the NDP and the Conservatives in terms of seats.”

alan smithee wrote:

josh wrote:

Nothing is over till it's over.

People should keep this well in mind. We've got 2 months to go and A LOT can happen in politics in that time.

But as Barry Kay said NOTHING has changed in two months, which means this is a figt between the Cons and NDP. With the Libs out in the cold,

alan smithee wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

[

But as Barry Kay said NOTHING has changed in two months, which means this is a figt between the Cons and NDP. With the Libs out in the cold,

Oh sorry..I didn't notice that Barry Kay said that. My bad.

No problem, it is morning after all.

alan smithee wrote:

terrytowel wrote:

[

But as Barry Kay said NOTHING has changed in two months, which means this is a figt between the Cons and NDP. With the Libs out in the cold,

Oh sorry..I didn't notice that Barry Kay said that. My bad.

It's not over until Barry Kay says it's over

The polls might start moving again in September. There's rarely any movement during the summer months.

If anything was gonna move the polls in the summer, it would have been the debate. But the debates were dull and uneventful.

August is more like a pre-season. You're seeing the teams test out their pitch to voters. The question is who is going to have the best pitch come September.

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

The polls might start moving again in September. There's rarely any movement during the summer months.

If anything was gonna move the polls in the summer, it would have been the debate. But the debates were dull and uneventful.

August is more like a pre-season. You're seeing the teams test out their pitch to voters. The question is who is going to have the best pitch come September.

May I remind people that everyone had this same narrative one year ago in the Toronto Mayor race. When Olivia Chow slipped to third. Every poo-pooed her drop in support saying the exact same thing. It's summer, no one is paying attention, come September is when people will make up their minds.

But the only numbers that changed were NOT Chow's but Doug Ford. He in fact closed the gap to Tory and almost won the election.

Chow stayed third and remained third no matter what she did. I suspect the same will happen to the Liberals.

Which is why I say "IT'S OVER!" for the Liberals. 8 weeks is not enough time to turn things around.

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

The aggregators have the NDP around 33.5%. To get to a majority, they'd need around 6.5% more.

The Liberals are polling around 27%. Which is actually 8% more than they had in 2011.

If the Liberals crater to Ignatieff levels, the NDP will get to a majority, if not very close to it.

Susan Delacourt was on Power Play yesterday and she had just come from canvassing with Jennifer Hollet of the NDP.

She said what voters told Hollet over and over and over again was that they planned on voting ABC - Anybody But Conservative. That whoever is the party best to knock off Harper will get their vote.

If that is the case then watch for the NDP numbers to go up and the Liberals to go down.

I think this is a good source for all the polls and seat projections:

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-seat-projections/

They update it regularly.

In looking at the CBC poll tracker, I notice that overall the Libs have gone up a small bit, the NDP have gone down a small bit, and the CPC have gone down a bigger bit (still not by a huge amount, though).   There are differences in regions.  The NDP have gone up in Alberta and Quebec, and the Libs and Cons down in these regions (though the changes are quite small), the Libs are up in Atlantic Canada, BC, and Ontario, and the NDP are down in these regions (again, very small amount), whereas Cons are same in BC and down in Ontario.  The Cons are up in Sask&Manitoba and the Libs and NDP are down here.  Note, I'm not talking about ranking, just about change.  Ranking is the same as always:  Cons #1 in Ont (though this is almost a three-way tie now) and Alberta and the Prairies, Libs #1 in the Atlantic, NDP #1 in BC and Quebec.

EKOS: NDP 32 CPC 30 LPC 24

https://mobile.twitter.com/308dotcom/status/632210333638217728

Glad to see Mainstreet fixing their method. Last time they had the Cons with a double digit lead, which basically no one agreed with, and everyone ignored. They have some way to recover any credibility.

Unless they're right and the others are "herding" ....I'm not sure what herding actually means, but apparently it's a criticism leveled at pollsters that are too similar to one another.

MAINSTREET and QUEBEC: They could have contacted voters exclusively in Montreal where the Liberal support is much stronger.

I'm not sure i buy the herding theor - but those who put it forward say it usually only happens at the very end of a campaign when no pollster wants to be a total outlier and be embarrassed by the results on election day. The theiry is that herding does NOT happen this far out from election day

There is a tendency for polling companies to care more about whether their polls are accurate at the end of the campaign because that is often the primary way of judging a polling firm's competence, comparing their predictions with the actual results. 

Polling companies also care about making money (I don't view that as a bad thing).  They want to continue their relationship with paying clients.  Sometimes, those paying clients are interested in particular questions being asked.  Those questions, particularly when asked before the "vote intent" question can impact on the results.  I always like to read the questions first before determining the likelihood of the poll's accuracy.  For example, if there is a series of questions about "Security" prior to the vote intent question, then the Conservative vote might be over-estimated or if there is a series of questions about the Duffy Trial prior to the vote intent question, then the NDP and Liberal vote might be over-estimated.  Sampling bias can also impact on that, either intentional or related to costs.

Private polls often have questions that test the impact of advertising of particular issues.  These polls are usually not published.  While the results are not accurate, they may be predictive of future polls.  Still, I see lots of questions in Forum and Ekos polls that relate to this.  When they ask about attitudes towards a coalition or cooperation between the Liberals and the NDP, it predictably will make the NDP/Liberal voters report they are less committed than Conservative supporters (whose commitment might be over-stated as many Conservatives believe that this is against democracy, their fear being that the Conservatives may be denied government even when they win the most seats).  I believe that these polls show that whichever party, the Liberals or the NDP, has a clear advantage in the polls just prior to the election date may experience a sharp swing from the other party (as well as the Greens and Bloc) during the last week of the campaign.  It points out the need for a final "drop" pamphlet that puts forward the idea of a "strategic" vote during the last couple of days of the campaign.   I believe that in an election like this one this final pamphlet may be more important than a strong E-Day operation for the NDP.

Leger marketing
N / 33%
C / 27%
L / 28%

NorthReport wrote:

What per cent of pop vote does NDP need for form a majorit government?

In our FPTP system a lot depends on how "efficient" a party's vote is. For example, a party that gets just enough votes to win in many ridings will win more seats than one which wins a lot of its ridings with overwhelming vote majorities.

Also a lot depends on to what degree the other parties split the vote.

Regarding polling, a party whose supporters can be relied on to come out and vote (Conservatives in the past) will win a higher percentage of the actual vote and more seats all other things being equal, than one (NDP, Greens) which polls best among say young eligible voters, who don't typically turn out in large numbers. 

Some recent majority Federal governments:

Year....Party....Vote%......Govt. seats

1988....Con.....43.02........169/295 

1993....Lib......41.24.........177/295

1997....Lib......38.46.........155/301

2000....Lib......40.85.........172/301

2011....Con.....39.63........166/308

So with the NDP hovering around 33-34% Mulcair is not far from winning a majority government

I wonder what the staying power of the Duffy trial will have on the minds of the voters

The only way we are going to begin to reverse some the damage Harper has done is with a majority NDP government

We really have to hand it to Mulcair as it appears even with all the resources Harper has at his disposal he just might have finally meet his match

It has been a long, long almost 10 years now of Republican er....Conservative government

Doug Woodard wrote:

I think the NDP will need 39% for a majority. A lot will hang on whether the NDP moves into the lead in Ontario, preferably with a margin over the Conservatives and Liberals which stay fairly close to each other.

I think we also need to factor in the disproportionate disenfranchisement of NDP supporters by the rewriting of election rules. What is it going to cost the NDP in lost votes? 1%? More?