Latest polling thread July 14, 2015

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Rokossovsky

An interesting point. I am already getting the sense that Elections Canada registration system is failing some people who are trying to register.

Policywonk

Doug Woodard wrote:

josh wrote:
NorthReport wrote:
What per cent of pop vote does NDP need for form a majorit government?

I'd guess 38

I think the NDP will need 39% for a majority. A lot will hang on whether the NDP moves into the lead in Ontario, preferably with a margin over the Conservatives and Liberals which stay fairly close to each other.

 

That depends on where votes are concentrated and by how much (both between and within provinces) and how many contending parties there are in each province, region within a province and district. Generally 40% has been enough for a majority government, but there have been majority governments with less and in provinces with only two real contending parties (BC in the '80s) it took close to 50% at least once. It is unlikely, but possible for a majority government in the mid 30% range, but everything would have to work out perfectly in terms of vote splits, and it would make a strong case for PR (even moreso than a party winning an election with a percentage close to 40% but fewer votes than the second place party).

Jacob Two-Two

I don't think there's any way to accurately predict what the NDP's threshold is because it's never happened before. If the party goes up to 39%, where will all those extra votes come from? Will they be bunched up or spread out? Will they accumulate in ridings we've already won or nudge close ridings over the top? There's no way to know and projections are shooting in the dark, assuming that all boats will rise equally when that's probably not going to be the case. It's all unprecedented so it could shake out a lot of ways.

Brachina

 For an NDP majority long shot, but possible at 36%, likely at 38%, and extremely likely at 40%, at 42% almost certainty.

 

NDPP

Majority of Voters Support NDP-Liberal Cooperation to Form Government if Election Results in Minority

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6947

NorthReport

Please take into consideration Sean's wise comments in the previous post.

------------------------------------------------

Just updated

Please post latest polling - thanks. 

--------------

 

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

---------------------------

 

Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Polling

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

5 Regional Polling

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

8 Political Trends Seats

9 Political Trends Popular Vote

---------------------------------------------------------


1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just

sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2 Latest polling details:

Aug 12 - NDP takes the lead in voter intentions, poll shows

NDP / 33%

C / 28%

L / 27%

B / 6%

http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/ndp-takes-the-lead-in-voter-intentions-poll-s...

-------------------

 

 

3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Aug 12 '15 / Leger / 33% / 27% / 28% / 5% / 6%

Aug 11 '15 / EKOS / 32% / 30% / 24% / 4% / 7% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Mainstreet R / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 6% -  Conservative media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31%,  Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4% - 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 5% - 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

5 Regional Polling


Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------


Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

---------

 

Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

-------------------------

 

Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

----------------------

 

Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

--------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

---------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

----------------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

---------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

--------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

 

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

Date / Pollster / Mulcair / Harper / Trudeau

Aug 10 ' 15 / Forum / 28% / 25% / 23%

 

 

7 Regional Leadership Polling

---------------

 

 

8 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

--------------


9 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

---------------------------

12, 800

Doug Woodard

Leger poll:

http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/soen20150815.pdf

The NDP appears to be pulling slowly ahead in Ontario. Looking good.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Doug Woodard wrote:

Leger poll:

http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/soen20150815.pdf

The NDP appears to be pulling slowly ahead in Ontario. Looking good.

Where's the 'Don't underestimate Thomas Mulcair' thread?

Sean in Ottawa

There is an interesting trend in polling and it is disturbing.

It is not new that they cook the numbers by using unrepresentative sample -- they guess what the numbers might be and twist the sample to match the input they think will produce that. They do this based on what they say reflects likely voters. Problem is they use demographic breakdowns far from what elections Canada reports as the actual demographic breakdown. This is not new. But recently it does not stop there. They have another way of distorting the results they do not want to release.

They go on to disrergard the raw data by adding data that is quite simply made up. They justify this based on presumptions about trends, votes that may change, a preference to incumbants, or more for the parties they think (or want) will do better etc. The tool is not to pull out the undecided and weight the data according to actual responses but instead, attribute undecideds as they wish to produce the result they are looking for.

For this, there is no science and no rules. They simply make presumptions about what the undecided votes may go and then mix those into the raw data to get the poll result they wish to release.

Any pollster who does this is producing fiction. 

They may end up with an accurate number becuase they may guess right, and their political scientists interpret the facts into what they think will happen but their guess is what we are seeing not scientifically supported data.

Most people think polls are scientific -- not some political scientist's personal prediction used to distort actual data.

During an election this gaming of the polls is done to shape opinion and give clients the result they want for their strategic purpose. Towards the end after gaming the polls throughout a campaign --  they then decide to have one last shot at a truly predictave poll (justified by saying the voters swung at the last moment). And then they still get it wrong -- often.

This latest trend to attribute undecideds, to prop up the numbers they want to release, makes political polls fraud. After all, this is exactly what we would call it if you did this in any other statistical study. Try that for medical trials for example -- making up data is really frowned on there.

Or, if you want to imagine this in practice -- imagine 2500 surveys, carefully collected. Then take another 1000 surveys and fill them in yourself as you wish and misx those in with the previous data. How much is science and how much fantasy?

 

nicky

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/354/vaughan-second-with-less-than-hal...

Chow leads Vaughan by 2 to 1. Too bad it's a Forum poll.

josh

nicky wrote:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/354/vaughan-second-with-less-than-hal...

Chow leads Vaughan by 2 to 1. Too bad it's a Forum poll.

Still significant. Think she has this.

nicky

Nanos numbers similar to last week but a little tighter three way race.

Bruce Anderson tweeted that Abacus poll to be released today shows election "up for grabs" whatever that means.

Stockholm

I would say "up for grabs" would mean no one has a double digit lead!

adma

Actually, Nanos has the NDP down to 29, and the Cons with a sweeping lead in Ontario.

I'm skeptical--and the last week or so for Nanos' rolling figures must *really* be a spiked outlier.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Fuck you,Ontario.

Stockholm

If Nanos didn't have a deal with the Globe no one would pay the least bit of attention to such a skimpy poll that is done over a four week period with just 250 interviews added per week. Ignore.

josh

nicky wrote:
Nanos numbers similar to last week but a little tighter three way race.

Bruce Anderson tweeted that Abacus poll to be released today shows election "up for grabs" whatever that means.

Stephen Harper’s party has 32 per cent support nationally while Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Tom Mulcair’s NDP are tied at 29 per cent, according to the latest Nanos Research weekly ballot tracking.

. . . ..

The Conservatives have been up four weeks in a row in Ontario, climbing from 35 per cent support in the week that ended July 17 to 42 per cent in the week that ended Friday. Over that same period, the NDP has declined in Ontario from 30 per cent support to 23 per cent, while the Liberals have been stuck at around 30 per cent.

The opposite trend is apparent in Atlantic Canada, where the Conservatives have fallen from ¬¬25 per cent to 16 per cent support over four weeks as the NDP grew from 25 per cent to 38 per cent.

The Liberals remain in the lead in Atlantic Canada with 45 per cent support.

The Conservatives are also strong in the Prairies, with 53 per cent compared to 20 per cent for the NDP and 19 per cent for the Liberals.

The NDP is still on top in British Columbia, at 39 per cent support, compared to 28 per cent for the Liberals and 26 per cent for the Conservatives.

The NDP continues to lead in Quebec, with 35 per cent, compared to 30 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois and 12 per cent for the Conservatives.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/election-2015-ontario-voters-pus...

socialdemocrati...

josh wrote:
nicky wrote:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/354/vaughan-second-with-less-than-hal... Chow leads Vaughan by 2 to 1. Too bad it's a Forum poll.
Still significant. Think she has this.

No doubt Vaughan is taking this seriously. His attacks have become shockingly angry and unhinged.

NorthReport

Poll puts Tories, NDP in lead in Sask voter intention

NDP / 35%

Cons / 39%

Libs / 21%

http://www.canada.com/Poll+puts+Tories+lead+Sask+voter+intention/1129812...

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Poll puts Tories, NDP in lead in Sask voter intention

NDP / 35%

Cons / 39%

Libs / 21%

http://www.canada.com/Poll+puts+Tories+lead+Sask+voter+intention/1129812...

Good for at least 4 new NDP seats.

bekayne

nicky wrote:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/354/vaughan-second-with-less-than-hal... Chow leads Vaughan by 2 to 1. Too bad it's a Forum poll.

Oh Forum!

The poll showed 83 per cent of 18- to 34-year-olds decided or leaning toward Chow, and less than 1 per cent support in that age group for Vaughan.

josh
Brachina

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

josh wrote:
nicky wrote:
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/354/vaughan-second-with-less-than-hal... Chow leads Vaughan by 2 to 1. Too bad it's a Forum poll.
Still significant. Think she has this.

No doubt Vaughan is taking this seriously. His attacks have become shockingly angry and unhinged.

 Well have to understand to Adam Vaughan this just wasn't supposed to happen, he gave up a career as a councillor, in order to win TS, which he did, and become a cabinat minister in a Trudeau government, now Adam is becoming hysterical because he's looking at his careers end, he's about to lose his political career entirely.

 I shed no tears for it and politics will be better for having Adam Vaughan out of it.

NorthReport

Maybe quite a few more NDP seats on election day.

josh wrote:
NorthReport wrote:

Poll puts Tories, NDP in lead in Sask voter intention

NDP / 35%

Cons / 39%

Libs / 21%

http://www.canada.com/Poll+puts+Tories+lead+Sask+voter+intention/1129812...

Good for at least 4 new NDP seats.

mark_alfred

Is Abacus now an outlier?  Seems other polls have shown a slight dip for the NDP and a slight rise for the Libs and/or Cons recently.

ETA:  While this recent Abacus poll is good for the NDP, it seems BC has the Cons closer to the NDP than previous polls did.  I wonder what's up there.

NorthReport

Bravo! 

NDP MP, elected in 2011 without any campaigning, now popular in her adopted Quebec riding

http://www.canada.com/news/national/elected+2011+without+campaigning+pop...

NorthReport

+

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  6h6 hours ago

Norman Spector retweeted Derek Leebosh

One poll, a long way to go, but something the premier of Ontario might want to think about

Norman Spector added,

Derek Leebosh @[email protected] In fact IF this poll were the result on Oct 19, in Quebec the NDP would get 70+ seats out of 78!

 

NorthReport
  1. Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  7h7 hours ago

    Norman Spector retweeted Peaceful Canadians

    Reluctance among ROC journos/pundits to report #NDP strength in QC, particularly in seat-rich franco areas

    Norman Spector added,

    Peaceful Canadians @[email protected] Media party continues to use Alberta as an example of Orange wave, yet 60% support CPC and only 22% support NDP. #mediabias 5 retweets1 favoriteReplyRetweet 5Favorite 1More

  2. Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  7h7 hours ago

    Norman Spector retweeted Guy Gendron

    Mulcair plus fort au QC dans ce sondage que Layton en 2011

    Norman Spector added,

    Guy Gendron @guygendronRCSondage Abacus: le NPD en avance à 35%, PC 29%, PLC 26% https://shar.es/1tUfcM  via @sharethis #Elex42 #polcan

 

NorthReport

Aug 18 '15 -

Just updated with the regionals for a new poll showing a significant NDP lead over 2nd place Cons, and Libs languishing behind in 3rd place.

NDP now leads in BC, Ontario, and Quebec, and the NDP is now second everywhere else.

-------------------------------------

 

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

---------------------------

 

Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Polling

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

5 Regional Polling

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

8 Political Trends Seats

9 Political Trends Popular Vote

---------------------------------------------------------


1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just

sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2 Latest polling details:

 

NDP leads

NDP / 35%, Up 3%

Cons / 29%, Unchanged

Libs / 26%, down 1%

http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-ndp-leads-but-70-of-voters-up-for-grabs/


-------------------

 

 

3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 35% / 29% / 26% / 3% / 6%

Aug 14 '15 / Nanos / 29% / 32% / 29% / 5% / 5%

Aug 12 '15 / Leger / 33% / 27% / 28% / 5% / 6%

Aug 11 '15 / EKOS / 32% / 30% / 24% / 4% / 7% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Mainstreet R / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 6% -  Conservative media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31%,  Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4% - 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 5% - 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

5 Regional Polling


Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 22% / 60% / 14%

---------

 

Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 36% / 18% / 45%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

-------------------------

 

Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 34% / 32% / 24% / 9%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

----------------------

 

Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

--------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling MB/SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 26% / 47% / 24% / 

--------------------------------


 

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

---------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

----------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 32% / 30% / 30% /

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

---------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 47% / 13% / 20% / 13%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

--------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

 

Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------

 

 

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

Date / Pollster / Mulcair / Harper / Trudeau

Aug 10 ' 15 / Forum / 28% / 25% / 23%

 

 

7 Regional Leadership Polling

---------------

 

 

8 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

--------------


9 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

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Please post latest polling - thanks. 

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13,500

 

NorthReport

CBC are now forecasting the Bloq will win Zero seats in Quebec.

If true could the NPD possibly win 70 out of the 78 seats in Quebec?

Misfit Misfit's picture

Maybe we should wait until all the French debates are done and people have heard was Duceppe has to say before we jump to conclusions so early in the campaign. I would love to see the NDP take Montreal area away from the Liberals. However, it is still very early in the campaign.

David Young

NorthReport wrote:

CBC are now forecasting the Bloq will win Zero seats in Quebec.

If true could the NPD possibly win 70 out of the 78 seats in Quebec?

While that would be great, I highly doubt that would happen.

The Conservatives are concentrating their efforts around Quebec City and the Beauce region, where they could win up to 10 seats.

The Liberals are firmly entrenched in the western part of Montreal, and would be ahead in about a similar number of seats.

If the NDP takes 58 seats in Quebec, I'd be happy with that.

 

chimurenga chimurenga's picture

mark_alfred wrote:

Is Abacus now an outlier?  Seems other polls have shown a slight dip for the NDP and a slight rise for the Libs and/or Cons recently.

ETA:  While this recent Abacus poll is good for the NDP, it seems BC has the Cons closer to the NDP than previous polls did.  I wonder what's up there.

 

I don't believe Abacus is an outlier (except in one respect). There have been a couple of polls that seem to show a downward slip for the NDP, but those are a) Nanos, which is a four-week rolling poll that includes two weeks of data from before the election was even called, b) Mainstreet, which has had some seriously deranged numbers all over the place, and c) Forum, whose first poll in the election period had the NDP at 39% while its most recent poll had them down to 34% with a 6-point lead over the Cons and a 7-point lead over the Liberals. The other polls (and I'm only talking about polls conducted during the election itself) show the NDP leading, with between 32% and 35%. Looking more closely at the Abacus poll, the regional numbers seem reasonable compared with other polling firms' results and with general trends, but with one exception : the Conservatives are, indeed, much closer to the NDP in BC (32% and 34%, respectively). To me, that's a result that requires some scrutiny and skepticism - because all the polls (including those before the election) have shown a double digit (or near enough) lead for the NDP in BC. Maybe there was a problem with the sample in that province? Definitely have to wait for more polls to see what that's all about. Anecdotally, it doesn't make any sense that the Cons should have risen in BC to be statistically tied with the NDP.

Another note on the polls. It's interesting that by and large, the polls that show the Cons in the lead give them a margin of around 1 percent, whereas the polls that show the NDP in the lead give them a margin of 3, 4 or more percent...

socialdemocrati...

NorthReport wrote:

CBC are now forecasting the Bloq will win Zero seats in Quebec.

If true could the NPD possibly win 70 out of the 78 seats in Quebec?

It's wishful thinking, but not crazy. The NDP won 59 out of 75 seats last election, with the Bloc at 23%. This time there are 78 seats, and the Bloc is down to under 20. If a few more Liberal or Bloc voters defect to the NDP, they could crack their way into the mid 60s. Again, don't count on it. But it's worth it to keep campaigning in Quebec and not become complacent.

mark_alfred

chimurenga wrote:
Anecdotally, it doesn't make any sense that the Cons should have risen in BC to be statistically tied with the NDP.

Yeah, unless it's the McQuaig effect.  The NDP went down in Alberta.  BC too?  Well, guess I'll just wait and see what happens.

Rokossovsky

It's hardly surprising that the NDP has lost some of its buzz in Alberta since the Notely victory, because some obscure candidate from Toronto said something not entirely flattering about the Tar Sands. And even if it did have some minor affect in AB, I hardly think it would have any affect at all in BC, among progressive voters, who seem mostly to be fleeing the LPC, not the CPC.

Jacob Two-Two

I would trust the abacus numbers before most other polls. I think it's an accurate snapshot. Their record is much, much better than Forum, and Mainstreet shouldn't even be part of the conversation.

mark_alfred

The Ontario numbers show some promise.  Again, though, the BC numbers are concerning.

Rokossovsky

Everything is good. Take it easy.

socialdemocrati...

It's hard to tell because pollsters vary from region to region, and some don't even show up in every election.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VS26fyTWkvg/U5sqb2SbinI/AAAAAAAATWo/_38zN7odt9...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SIP9jkTegTQ/VUozT1iuJRI/AAAAAAAAWTs/yACpbiBM9a...

But generally, Mainstreet, Forum, and Ipsos Reid do pretty badly.

EKOS and Leger are decent across the board.

Abacus and Angus Reid have moments of brilliance, but don't poll enough to know for sure.

NorthReport

Aug 18 '15 - 

Just updated with a Regional SK poll

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Aug 18 '15 -

Just updated with the regionals for a new poll showing a significant NDP lead over 2nd place Cons, and Libs languishing behind in 3rd place.

NDP now leads in BC, Ontario, and Quebec, and the NDP is now second everywhere else.

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https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

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Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Polling

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

5 Regional Polling

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

8 Political Trends Seats

9 Political Trends Popular Vote

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1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just

sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2 Latest polling details:

 

NDP increases lead, Libs continue to fade.

NDP / 35%, Up 3%

Cons / 29%, Unchanged

Libs / 26%, Down 1%

http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-ndp-leads-but-70-of-voters-up-for-grabs/


-------------------

 

 

3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 35% / 29% / 26% / 3% / 6%

Aug 14 '15 / Nanos / 29% / 32% / 29% / 5% / 5%

Aug 12 '15 / Leger / 33% / 27% / 28% / 5% / 6%

Aug 11 '15 / EKOS / 32% / 30% / 24% / 4% / 7% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Mainstreet R / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 6% -  Conservative media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31%,  Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4% - 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 5% - 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

------------------------------

 

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

----------------------------

 

5 Regional Polling


Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 22% / 60% / 14%

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Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 36% / 18% / 45%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

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Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------------

 

Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

--------------------------------

 

Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 34% / 32% / 24% / 9%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

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Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

--------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling MB/SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 26% / 47% / 24% / 

--------------------------------


 

Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 13 '15 / Insightrix / 35% / 39% / 21%

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Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

----------------------------------------------------------

 

 

Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 32% / 30% / 30% /

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

---------------------------------------------------

 

Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 47% / 13% / 20% / 13%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

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Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

-------------------------

 

Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

------------------------------------------------

 

 

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

Date / Pollster / Mulcair / Harper / Trudeau

Aug 10 ' 15 / Forum / 28% / 25% / 23%

 

 

7 Regional Leadership Polling

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8 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

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9 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

---------------------------

 

Please post latest polling - thanks. 

--------------

 

NorthReport

Norman Spector ‏@nspector4  5h5 hours ago

Why it's looking good for Mulcair in light of today's Abacus poll and bad for Trudeau

Embedded image permalink

 

socialdemocrati...

I noticed that. The plummeting number of voters who believe the Liberals have a chance... That will have an impact. A lot of people can't bring themselves to the voting booth to vote for a losing party. And a good 60% of voters really want Harper gone.

Policywonk

mark_alfred wrote:

The Ontario numbers show some promise.  Again, though, the BC numbers are concerning.

Even if the NDP were down I can't believe the Conservatives are up in BC. If the Conservatives were to drop a few percentage points in Ontario they would lose many more seats to both the Liberals and us.

NorthReport

NDP continues to scores highest on Nanos Index, Trudeau hits new low in preferred PM tracking - Nanos Weekly Tracking (ending August 14, 2015)

 

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Nanos%20Party%20Power%20Index...

NorthReport

Nanos Research - Aug 14, 2015

 

Canadawide Power Party Index

Party / 1 Yr Ago / 3 Mos Ago /  1 Mo Ago / Last Wk / This Wk / Change

NDP / 52 / 52 / 55 / 55 / 55 / Up 3 

Cons / 49 /54 / 51 / 53 / 52 / Up 3

Libs / 57 / 54 / 50 / 50 / 50 / Down 7

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13,900

bekayne
NorthReport

Nanos Research - Aug 14, 2015

 

Regionals - Power Party Index

AC

Party / Aug 14 '15 

NDP / 58

Cons / 44

Libs / 59


NorthReport

Nanos Research

Regionals - Power Party Index

BC

Party / Aug 14 '15

NDP / 59

Cons / 49

Libs / 52


 

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