Federal Election - 2015 (Quebec)

Yes, I think I'll discuss that in the Montréal thread.

So, I was out having drinks with my Liberal friends here in Toronto, when we started talking about the election.  I mentioned that as things are now, I saw the Libs winning the Atlantic, the NDP winning Quebec.... at which point I was interrupted.  "No way, it will never happen again!  That was a one off."  I said, Uh, no, I think the NDP are way ahead in Quebec and will stay there and win.... In fact, I don't think Trudeau is even targeting Quebec now.  Laughter, followed by, "I'll bet you twenty bucks the Liberals win Quebec -- again, it was just a one-off for the NDP there last time.  Or no, rather than $20, let's make it a good dinner and a decent bottle of wine."  

So, on October 19, I'll have a good dinner and a decent bottle of wine for free.  But it does show how some people in Ontario perceive the current election. 

 Reality will smack the Liberals in the head soon enough, likely a week or 2 before the election day. Just have the good grace not to collect till a couple days after E day.

The polls definitely don't indicate it. Once you aggregate the polls and average out the statistical noise, the Bloc have basically been hovering around 20% the whole time. The NDP has only risen since Duceppe has taken over.

But maybe someone else can talk about how the Quebec media is reporting it. The polls are one thing, and perception / conversation is another.

lagatta wrote:

Very little. Of course people are happy to see him and shake hands with him; he is an iconic figure here, and famous for his cheeky comments and with that echo that of René Lévesque. But even in his riding, most people seem to be choosing the NDP.

He had a LOT of union support, especially in his "maiden" election. Most of the unions seem to be providing open or tacit support to the NDP this time round.

By the way, I hope someone starts a thread about Alberta candidates. Aaron Paquette is quite a find; he provided a lot of the iconography for Idle No More as well as the Ottawapiskat meme.

Thanks!

Jean-Francois Delisle has won the NDP nod for Megantic-L'Erable, where incumbent Conservative non-entity Christian paradis is not re-offering. This will presumably be one of the 10 Quebec target seats for the campaign to unseat Quebec Cons. 

[url=http://www.lanouvelle.net/Actualites/Politique/2015-08-14/article-424644...çois Delisle devient candidat pour le NPD[/url]

bekayne wrote:

swallow wrote:

Jean-Francois Delisle has won the NDP nod for Megantic-L'Erable, where incumbent Conservative non-entity Christian paradis is not re-offering. This will presumably be one of the 10 Quebec target seats for the campaign to unseat Quebec Cons. 

[url=http://www.lanouvelle.net/Actualites/Politique/2015-08-14/article-424644...çois Delisle devient candidat pour le NPD[/url]

 

But don't they only have 5 seats?

0 would be better

Remember when the PC party got smacked down to TWO seats?  Good times!

Funny enough, though:

PC Party:

Two seats, based on 2,186,422 votes.

NDP:

Nine seats, based on 939,575 votes.

That was in '93, and I wasn't really paying attention, but surely the left freaked out about this and demanded that the NDP give up some of those seats, proportional to the popular vote.  They didn't just chortle, did they?

Jim Hughes, former executive director of the Old Brewery Mission won the NDP nomination in NDG-Westmount. Unbelievably - almost 1,000 members voted!

I agree its not a "sure sign of a win" but its an encouraging sign!

Stockholm wrote:

I agree its not a "sure sign of a win" but its an encouraging sign!

A Jim Hughes win would be legendary. I think I'll go offer some help. Not my riding, but I like him better these days than my candidate.

ETA: Don't get me wrong - I would have been happy with Peter McQueen, Sue Montgomery, Julien Feldman - lots of good folks in that race. I just relish the thought of my next-door riding changing colours.

Proposal: Rename the riding NDP-Westmount lol!!

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Remember when the PC party got smacked down to TWO seats?  Good times!

Funny enough, though:

PC Party:

Two seats, based on 2,186,422 votes.

NDP:

Nine seats, based on 939,575 votes.

That was in '93, and I wasn't really paying attention, but surely the left freaked out about this and demanded that the NDP give up some of those seats, proportional to the popular vote.  They didn't just chortle, did they?

Are you kidding?

Why not finish your list and show which parties got fewer seats than their proportion of the vote?

Spoiler alert:

NDP with 6.88% of the vote got 3% of the seats. So how many should they have offered to give up, exactly?

The Reform party with only 15% more votes got 2500% more seats.

The BQ with 13% fewer votes got 2700% more seats.

The Liberals with41% of the vote got 60% of the seats.

But you choose to go after the NDP on this -- one of three parties (with the BQ and Greens) who have long supported PR.

trotwood73 wrote:

The Liberal candidate in Verchères-Les-Patriotes (south shore of Montreal), Francine Crevier Bélair, has resigned as the candidate over some financial issues regarding her 2013 municipal campaign in Boucherville.

It seems as if her name has already been removed from the Liberal website listing their candidates.

Not Verchères-Les-Patriotes, but Pierre-Boucher-Les Patriotes-Verchères.

Quebec is heating up. Duceppe has found his perfect issue.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/08/17/gilles-duceppe-quebec-should-dec...

Duceppe added that Quebec. and not the National Energy Board, should decide what travels through its territory.

"We cannot let Quebec be transformed into a highway for Albertan oil,'' he said. "That's not Quebec's future in Canada right now, or as an independent nation some day -- which should come as soon as possible.''

The Bloc leader called on his opponents in the NDP, Liberals and Conservatives to reject the Belledune rail terminal proposal.

"It's time for them to say if they are going to take the side of Quebec citizens or continue to be on the side of the oil and gas companies,'' he said.

Lac Megantic is still very fresh. The name will forever more be associated with the disaster, the first thing anyone thinks of when they hear the name of the town. Residents don't blame the engineer or fire crew or anyone that was present that night. They blame the company and the government.

Energy East, and now this Belledune rail terminal in New Brunswick planned with the assumption Quebec will accept the traffic through the province.

There are a lot of influences in Quebec that contribute to the volitility of voters. Duceppe's entire campaign is going to focus on the environment and the right of Quebec to reject the transportation of oil through the province. This could absolutely gain support for Duceppe. That's why he came back to lead the party. He knows he has a great rallying cry. Separatism has been waning in the province in large part because citizens don't feel imposed upon by the ROC.

Duceppe will be attacking both Trudeau and Mulcair on this but a larger percentage of Mulcair's supporters are more vulnerable to persuasion based on sovereignty and the environment.

The PQ/BQ position in very simple. When the PQ is in power provincially they tend to want to build smokestacks to the moon and damn every river in sight and are 100% pro-development and go to war with environmentalists. This was how it was under Bouchard, Landry and Marois. and PKP was very pro-development and pro-pipleines until someone told him to button his lip.

Then when the PQ is out of power in Quebec, all of a sudden they and the BQ start to pretend that they care about the environment again.

agree with Stockholm, the Bloc, PQ and leftward parties are playing the pipeline card to the hilt these days, and not very convincingly ....

Marois was very pro-oil exploration, including around the Anticosti reserve, surely dreaming what a psychological boost it would be to say: we have oil!

Duceppe is a very smart man. He makes a very good point about how powerless Québec is as a province.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/bloc-leader-calls-for-exemption-...

lagatta wrote:

 he is very bit as much an accomplice to the union-busting slime PKP.

I can't argue against that point.

Are you sure? I read several versions of it, in French and in English, this morning. I'm really too tired to look it up again; it was mainstream news.

thnk you sean, i've not read a quote or seen a clip where he defends  Ms Thatcher in anyway.  i heard him say things very like my grandma and grandpa did.

as i said in other threads where you slammed this paraphrase by the huffpo up. i watched the clip it doesn't say what you're depicting.

Translation by Althia Raj

 

An orange tsunami?

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/montreal-the-moment/ndps-oran...