Latest polling thread July 14, 2015

Nanos Research

Regionals - Power Party Index

QC

Party / Aug 14 '15

NDP / 62

Cons / 44

Libs / 51

BQ / 35

How you define ready to be PM is an interestng question -- do you get a pass by being PM or would massive screw-ups in that position suggest that you are not in fact ready. Arguably, Canada has suffered by having someone who was not ready govern us for the last decade.

Harper is not ready on many counts -- competence is only part of it -- but a failure to understand the nature, people, potential, diversity, aspirations of Canada is a start. He has never understood this and as a result he is no more ready than he was when he started or -- for that matter -- Trudeau.

NIK NANOS
Pollster says NDP has built up a significant amount of goodwill

nicky wrote:

Breathtaking numbers for NDP and for Tom in today's CROP http://static.lpcdn.ca/fichiers/html/2266/Sondage_complet.pdf[/quote]

 

Truly amazing. 47%! Better than the 2011 results. And 27% more than the second place Liberals. That would surely mean 70+ seats. Papineau has to be in play.

 

I hope the "Anybody But Harper" voters in the rest of Canada, Ontario especially, take note.

 

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201508/19/01-48939...

 

http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/montreal-the-moment/ndps-oran...

CROP is especially encouraging because its findings are almost identical to Abacus's Quebec findings.

SD, the seat projection models stubornly give Ahuntsic to the Liberals. Maria Mourani of course won it narrowly for the Bloc in 2011. Redistribution tilts it narrowly to the Liberals over the NDP but with the Bloc a strong third. Given that Mourani is running now the the NDP I think she can count on consolidating a big portion of the old Bloc vote behind her and she  should be the favourite to win this seat.

These models have to make assumptions about how concentrated the support is unless they release riding by riding data.

And there is too much that can change yet.

Quebec is not what worries me anyway...

Eyes are still on Ontario -- and the West to some degree. But Ontario looks like it is going to decide the next government.

Or it can abstain like the Liberal party and split evenly three ways...

Further details of Environics riding polls for Leadnow:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/275339636/Environics-Leadnow-Swing-Riding-Poll...

 That link is of no use to me, it made me download scrib app after 4 pages and then it still won't show the rest. I think you need a subscription. Can you tell me which 5 ridings the NDP is leading in.

Brachina wrote:

 That link is of no use to me, it made me download scrib app after 4 pages and then it still won't show the rest. I think you need a subscription. Can you tell me which 5 ridings the NDP is leading in.

Try this:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf

NDP polling at 47% in Québec.

I guess it's up to Ontario. I won't hold my breath.

If things keep up like this, both Shaughnessy and British Properties could be represented by the NDP.

Pondering wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

NDP polling at 47% in Québec.

I guess it's up to Ontario. I won't hold my breath.

Quebec is volatile and  60 to 70% of voters say their vote is still up for grabs so the poll numbers are not reflecting a solid preference just the direction people are leaning in at the moment. The NDP's current lead is no stronger than the lead Trudeau had for so long.

Much closer to an election. But then this campaign has barely started. 

https://s3.amazonaws.com/leadnow/Environics-leadnow-aug-19-15.pdf

NDP support rises in some contested ridings.

 Mark my words as pressure increases Ontario will crack, the NDP is already competetive here, but it will get better.

In that light, I find the most interesting seat to consider of the lot is Kitchener Centre.

Aug 20 '15 - 

Just updated with a Regional CROP poll for QC showing the NPD with phenomenal support. The NPD has more than double the next closest political party

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Aug 18 '15 -

Just updated with the regionals for a new poll showing a significant NDP lead over 2nd place Cons, and Libs languishing behind in 3rd place.

NDP now leads in BC, Ontario, and Quebec, and the NDP is now second everywhere else.

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https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+enough

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ndp%27s+not+working

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Polling details here are in the following order:

1 Preamble:

2 Latest polling details

3 Canadawide Polling

4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011

5 Regional Polling

6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

7 Regional Leadership Polling

8 Political Trends Seats

9 Political Trends Popular Vote

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1 Preamble

We have no way of ascertaining for sure what polling results actually are, and sometimes it just might be too tempting to resist tweaking the polls. There are lots of dirty tricks in politics, so their is no reason to assume that some polling is exempt. For example, if a Conservative supporting pollster wants the Conservatives to win, rather than showing the NDP with a commanding lead over a 3rd place party, it might be helpful to show both the NDP and a 3rd place party, closer together than they actually are, to encourage splitting the vote against the Conservatives. Just

sayin'  

As we get closer to the actual election date, herding* is one thing to watch out for in the polls.

* - see Nate Silver

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2 Latest polling details:

Intentions de vote fédéral au Québec: le NPD écrase la concurrence 

NPD - 47%

Libs - 20%

BQ - 16%

Cons - 13%

NDP increases lead, Libs continue to fade.

NDP / 35%, Up 3%

Cons / 29%, Unchanged

Libs / 26%, Down 1%

http://abacusdata.ca/election-2015-ndp-leads-but-70-of-voters-up-for-grabs/

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3 Canadawide Polling

Date / Event / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ / Grns

May 2 '11 / GE / 31% / 40% / 19% 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 35% / 29% / 26% / 3% / 6%

Aug 14 '15 / Nanos / 29% / 32% / 29% / 5% / 5%

Aug 12 '15 / Leger / 33% / 27% / 28% / 5% / 6%

Aug 11 '15 / EKOS / 32% / 30% / 24% / 4% / 7% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 11 '15 / Mainstreet R / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 6% -  Conservative media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Forum / 34% / 28% / 27% / 6% / 4% - Liberal media complex

Aug 10 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 33%, Down 1% / 31%,  Down 2% / 28%, Up 3% / 4% / 4% - 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 30% / 31% / 29% / 4% / 5% - 

Aug 2 ' 15 / Forum / 39%, Up 8% / 33%, Down 7% / 24%, Up 5% - Liberal media complex

Aug 1 '15 / Robbins / 36% Up 3% / 28%, Up 1% / 30%, Down 3% 

Jul 31 '15 / Nanos / 30%, Down 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 29%, Up 10% - Conservative media complex   

Jul 30 '15 / Innovative / 34%, Up 3% / 29%, Down 11% / 26%, Up 7% - Conservative media complex 

Jul 28 '15 / EKOS / 34%, Up 3% / 30%, Down 10% / 23%, Up 4% - Liberal media complex

Jul 27 '15 / Ipsos Reid / 34%, Up 3% / 33%, Down 7% / 25%, Up 6% - Accurate pollster

Jul 21 '15 / Mainstreet / 27%, Down 4% / 38%, Down 2% / 25%, Up 6% 

Jul 16 '15 / Leger / 32%, Up 1% / 32%, Down 8% / 25%, Up 6% - Conservative media complex

Jul 6 '15 / Abacus / 32%, Up 1% / 29%, Down 11% / 27%, Up 8% - Liberal media complex

Jun 18 '15 / Environics / 30% / Down 1% / 28%, Down 12% / 28%, Up 9%

Jun 7 '15 / Angus Reid / 36%, Up 5% / 31%, Down 9% / 23%, Down 4% - Accurate pollster

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4 Regional Election Results Popular Vote 2011 

Party / May 2 '11 / GE / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / May 2 '11 / GE / 33% / 17% / 32% / 26% / 26% / 43% /  30%

Cons / May 2 '11 / GE / 46% / 67% / 56% / 79% / 44% / 17% / 38%

Libs / May 2 '11 / GE / 13% / 9% / 9% / 17% / 25% / 14% / 29%

BQ / Gns / May 2 '11 / GE / 8% / ? / ? / ? / ? / 23% / ?

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5 Regional Polling

Regional Polling AB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 22% / 60% / 14%

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Regional Polling AC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 36% / 18% / 45%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 32% / 18% / 48%

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Regional Polling NL

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling NB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling PE

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling NS

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling BC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 34% / 32% / 24% / 9%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 41% / 26% / 29% / 4%

Aug 6 '15 / Mainstreet / 37% / 23% / 26% / 5%

Augb 2 '15 / Forum / 44%, Up 11% / 35%, Down 11%, 26%, Up 13%

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Regional Polling  Prairies 

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 19% / 56% / 18%

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Regional Polling MB/SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / Abacus / 26% / 47% / 24% / 

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Regional Polling SK

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 13 '15 / Insightrix / 35% / 39% / 21%

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Regional Polling MB

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling ON

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 32% / 30% / 30% /

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 26% / 37% / 29%

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Regional Polling QC

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

Aug 17 '15 / CROP /  47% / 13% / 20% / 16%

Aug 15 '15 / Abacus / 47% / 13% / 20% / 13%

Aug 7 '15 / Nanos / 39% / 13% / 28% / 17%

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Regional Polling Terrritories

Date / Pollster / NDP, Change / Cons, Change / Libs, Change / BQ/Grn, Change 

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Regional Polling - Forum

Party / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / BC / AB / SK / MB / ON / QC / AC

NDP / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 44% +11% / 34% +17% / ? / ? / 37% +11% / 38%, Down 5% / 45%, Up 15%

Cons / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 35% -11% / 38% -29% / ? / ? / 35% -9% / 17% UC* / 38% UC*

Libs / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / 26% +13% / 9% +12% / ? / ? / 24%,  -1% / 23%, +9% / Down

BQ / Gns / Aug 2 '15 / Forum / ? / ? / ? / ? / ? / 19% -4% / ?

* denotes unchanged

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6 Canadawide Leadership Polling

Date / Pollster / Mulcair / Harper / Trudeau

Aug 10 ' 15 / Forum / 28% / 25% / 23%

7 Regional Leadership Polling

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8 Political Trends Seats

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 19 seats, Up 6 seats / 135 seats, Down 37 seats

2006 / 29 seats, Up 10 seats  / 116, Down 19 seats

2008 / 37 seats, Up 8 seats / 77 seats, Down 39 seats

2011 / 103 seats, Up 66 seats / 34 seats, Down 43 seats

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9 Political Trends Popular Vote

Gen Election / NDP, Change / Libs, Change

2004 / 16%, Up 7% / 37% , Down 4%

2006 / 17.5%, Up 1.5% / 30%, Down 7%

2008 / 18.2%, Up 0.7% / 26%,  Down 4%

2011 / 31%, Up 13% / 19%, Down 7%

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Please post latest polling - thanks. 

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14,800

Poll on perceptions of the economy.  Most feel it's not in great shape.  As far as who would be best to lead it, there's not a huge difference between any of the three leaders (though Mulcair seemed ahead on most of them).  Still, on issues surrounding the economy, the NDP is doing well in the public's perception.

link