Will NDP win majority or minority government?

The Forum poll was the first to show the Cons in 3rd which was followed by a week of polling by other firms that also had the cons at 3rd. The latest Forum numbers seem to indicate that the Cons are increasing their support at the NDP expenses and the Nanos/Ekos polls seem like their showing a similar trend. The Trudeau surge might have dissatisfied cons that were leaning NDP swinging back to the CPC to stop Trudeau. 

 

A majority seems unlikely for all parties at this stage and the safest bet is after the 19th it is going to be difficult for Harper to hold on. For any of the parties to secure a majority I think their support needs to be at 35% while the remaining two need to come in a notch or two below 30%. Overall it looks like a Majority will be difficult to attain simply because of how uncompetitive all 3 parties are in significant reigons.

The CPC might not win 10 seats East of the Ottawa river

The LPC still need to be more competitive in the west

And Ontario seems like an issue for the NDP

 

If the above is accurate then the NDP might have an advantage relatively being the most competitive in all regions.

 

NorthReport wrote:

Saw the forum poll showing the NDP pulling away from the pack so just askin'

There you go again, cherry picking polls and measuring the windows at 24 Sussex for Orange curtains.

Check out today's Nanos - statistically tied with the CONs on top.

How does that taste? (Did the CON base expand via the CON refugee policy. Go figure?)

We have a full “normal” election period ahead of us. Way too soon to be taking a victory lap. Cameron (and the Lizard of Oz) won a MAJORITY after a tied-in-the-polls election. The Harper CONs cheated in every election they won... you think they will play by the rules (what's left of them) in this election?

We all need to support the party of our choice* in the meantime,

(there could be an Orange, Red or even Green wave to make this easier)

but come Oct. 19, vote with your head not your heart. Eye on the prize: heave Steve.

 

*I gave up on the parties but I did donate to this Voter Reg drive:

http://canadians.org/Marika-Nicolov

 

 

 

 

Here's the Forum poll that NR referred to:  http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1374/liberals-tied-with-conservatives...

Northern PoV wrote:

According to the Guardian: "Crosby's cleverest trick of all was to make it look as if the Tory campaign wasn't working."

This was a pitch to get UKIP supporters to vote strategically for the Conservatives, and it worked well enough for them to win.

There is no far right party for our Cons to draw voters from. They ARE the far right.

brookmere wrote:

Northern PoV wrote:

According to the Guardian: "Crosby's cleverest trick of all was to make it look as if the Tory campaign wasn't working."

This was a pitch to get UKIP supporters to vote strategically for the Conservatives, and it worked well enough for them to win.

There is no far right party for our Cons to draw voters from. They ARE the far right.

Yes, the tactics may change but the strategy remains the same.  There may be no UKIP party here but there are plenty of CONs who stay home or vote for the splinter groups like the Christian Heritage cause Steve is not pure enough.  Scare them to the polls.

And it remains to be seen how else low-information voters might get manipulated by the Lizard from Oz.

My point: it is way to early to be cherry-picking polls and discussing "NDP majority or ...."  when we face the real possibility of another Harper gov't. Overconfidence will quell strategic voting and give birth to a CON victory. 

 

David Young wrote:

The difference between an NDP minority and majority government is Ontario.

I can see the NDP having a reasonable chance at 115-120 seats outside of Ontario, so the remaining 50-55 seats needed must come from there.

Here are the 121 seats of Ontario:

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php

A good exercise would be to rank them all in terms of the NDP's ability to win the seat.

 

bekayne wrote:

David Young wrote:

The difference between an NDP minority and majority government is Ontario.

I can see the NDP having a reasonable chance at 115-120 seats outside of Ontario, so the remaining 50-55 seats needed must come from there.

Here are the 121 seats of Ontario:

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php

A good exercise would be to rank them all in terms of the NDP's ability to win the seat.

 

For sure

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing

Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

Hamilton Mountain

London—Fanshawe

Niagara Centre

Nickel Belt

Ottawa Centre

Thunder Bay—Rainy River

Timmins—James Bay

Toronto—Danforth

Windsor—Tecumseh

Windsor West

 

Probably

Beaches—East York

Davenport

Essex
Hamilton Centre

Oshawa

Parkdale—High Park

Sarnia—Lambton

Scarborough North

Sudbury

Thunder Bay—Superior North

University—Rosedale

Waterloo

York South—Weston

 

Possible

Brampton Centre

Brampton East

Brantford—Brant

Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

Kenora

Kitchener Centre

London West

Ottawa—Vanier

Perth—Wellington

Niagara Falls

Sault Ste. Marie

Scarborough Centre

Scarborough Southwest

Spadina—Fort York

Toronto Centre

York Centre

 

Outside shot

Bay of Quinte

Cambridge

Don Valley North

Durham

Elgin—Middlesex—London

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Etobicoke North

Guelph

Haldimand—Norfolk

Humber River—Black Creek

Kingston and the Islands

Kitchener—Conestoga

Kitchener South—Hespeler

Lambton—Kent—Middlesex

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

London North Centre

Nipissing—Timiskaming

Ottawa West—Nepean

Peterborough—Kawartha

St. Catharines

Scarborough—Agincourt

Scarborough—Guildwood

Scarborough—Rouge Park

Toronto—St. Paul's

Whitby

 

No

Ajax

Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill

Barrie—Innisfil

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

Brampton North

Brampton South

Brampton West

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Burlington

Carleton

Don Valley East

Don Valley West

Dufferin—Caledon

Eglinton—Lawrence

Etobicoke Centre

Flamborough—Glanbrook

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock

Hastings—Lennox and Addington

Huron—Bruce

Kanata—Carleton

King—Vaughan

Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes

Markham—Stouffville

Markham—Thornhill

Markham—Unionville

Milton

Mississauga Centre

Mississauga East—Cooksville

Mississauga—Erin Mills

Mississauga—Lakeshore

Mississauga—Malton

Mississauga—Streetsville

Nepean

Newmarket—Aurora

Niagara West

Northumberland—Peterborough South

Oakville

Oakville North—Burlington

Orléans

Ottawa South

Oxford

Parry Sound—Muskoka

Pickering—Uxbridge

Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

Richmond Hill

Simcoe—Grey

Simcoe North

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

Thornhill

Vaughan—Woodbridge

Wellington—Halton Hills

Willowdale

York—Simcoe

 

No one resembles Corbyn.  Both Trudeau and Mulcair resemble Blair.  Agree with the peaking though.