Saw the forum poll showing the NDP pulling away from the pack so just askin'
Will NDP win majority or minority government?
The difference between an NDP minority and majority government is Ontario.
I can see the NDP having a reasonable chance at 115-120 seats outside of Ontario, so the remaining 50-55 seats needed must come from there.
Mulcair has to show the same competance in the remaining debates that he showed in Parliament when he was taking Harper to task.
The Forum poll was the first to show the Cons in 3rd which was followed by a week of polling by other firms that also had the cons at 3rd. The latest Forum numbers seem to indicate that the Cons are increasing their support at the NDP expenses and the Nanos/Ekos polls seem like their showing a similar trend. The Trudeau surge might have dissatisfied cons that were leaning NDP swinging back to the CPC to stop Trudeau.
A majority seems unlikely for all parties at this stage and the safest bet is after the 19th it is going to be difficult for Harper to hold on. For any of the parties to secure a majority I think their support needs to be at 35% while the remaining two need to come in a notch or two below 30%. Overall it looks like a Majority will be difficult to attain simply because of how uncompetitive all 3 parties are in significant reigons.
The CPC might not win 10 seats East of the Ottawa river
The LPC still need to be more competitive in the west
And Ontario seems like an issue for the NDP
If the above is accurate then the NDP might have an advantage relatively being the most competitive in all regions.
The difference between an NDP minority and majority government is Ontario.
I can see the NDP having a reasonable chance at 115-120 seats outside of Ontario, so the remaining 50-55 seats needed must come from there.
Mulcair has to show the same competance in the remaining debates that he showed in Parliament when he was taking Harper to task.
Agreed. The next debate on the economy, which will be accompanied by the release of the NDP's platform, will be a potential turning point in Ontario. This could be what leads to an NDP majority if the debate goes well.
Saw the forum poll showing the NDP pulling away from the pack so just askin'
There you go again, cherry picking polls and measuring the windows at 24 Sussex for Orange curtains.
Check out today's Nanos - statistically tied with the CONs on top.
How does that taste? (Did the CON base expand via the CON refugee policy. Go figure?)
We have a full “normal” election period ahead of us. Way too soon to be taking a victory lap. Cameron (and the Lizard of Oz) won a MAJORITY after a tied-in-the-polls election. The Harper CONs cheated in every election they won... you think they will play by the rules (what's left of them) in this election?
We all need to support the party of our choice* in the meantime,
(there could be an Orange, Red or even Green wave to make this easier)
but come Oct. 19, vote with your head not your heart. Eye on the prize: heave Steve.
*I gave up on the parties but I did donate to this Voter Reg drive:
http://canadians.org/Marika-Nicolov
"According to the Guardian: "Crosby's cleverest trick of all was to make it look as if the Tory campaign wasn't working. From February onwards, as the polls seemed to show Labour and the Conservatives deadlocked, Tory commentators and senior party figures… began complaining in coded language about the campaign that Crosby was masterminding.… [W]hile many of the Conservatives' opponents and many journalists and voters were assuming that the Tory campaign was drifting or stalling, Crosby's well-funded infantry were quietly, busily seizing the marginals. Another of his favourite electioneering phrases is 'below the radar.'"
from the TYEE
We just found out about the Lizard - he's likely been on the job here in Harper's-Canada(TM) for a long time.
Here's the Forum poll that NR referred to: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1374/liberals-tied-with-conservatives...
Here's the Forum poll that NR referred to: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1374/liberals-tied-with-conservatives...
polls ... schmolls
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-poll-major-parties-gripped...
Guardian: "Crosby's cleverest trick of all was to make it look as if the Tory campaign wasn't working."According to the
This was a pitch to get UKIP supporters to vote strategically for the Conservatives, and it worked well enough for them to win.
There is no far right party for our Cons to draw voters from. They ARE the far right.
The great horse race is on but we all know the winner will be Beetle Bomb.
North Report this thread like your Christy is Toast threads during the BC election. I think counting on the NDP to win government is extremely premature. I hope you have a big wad of kleenex in your hand to clean up the gooey mess.
Guardian: "Crosby's cleverest trick of all was to make it look as if the Tory campaign wasn't working."According to theThis was a pitch to get UKIP supporters to vote strategically for the Conservatives, and it worked well enough for them to win.
There is no far right party for our Cons to draw voters from. They ARE the far right.
Yes, the tactics may change but the strategy remains the same. There may be no UKIP party here but there are plenty of CONs who stay home or vote for the splinter groups like the Christian Heritage cause Steve is not pure enough. Scare them to the polls.
And it remains to be seen how else low-information voters might get manipulated by the Lizard from Oz.
My point: it is way to early to be cherry-picking polls and discussing "NDP majority or ...." when we face the real possibility of another Harper gov't. Overconfidence will quell strategic voting and give birth to a CON victory.
This was a pitch to get UKIP supporters to vote strategically for the Conservatives, and it worked well enough for them to win.
It was also a tactic to get the "center party" supporters - The Lib/Dems voters to vote Tory.
If the NDP are polling too strong the blue Libs may go CON (Ontario/2011). If the Libs numbers hold up (as they have so far, despite all preditions to the contary note) or the CONs fall, we can hope red-tories go Lib.
Onex-funded-austerity-loving-Mulcair or C51-Trudeau: Either is a far better bet than another trip down the Harper rabbit hole.
The difference between an NDP minority and majority government is Ontario.
I can see the NDP having a reasonable chance at 115-120 seats outside of Ontario, so the remaining 50-55 seats needed must come from there.
Here are the 121 seats of Ontario:
http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php
A good exercise would be to rank them all in terms of the NDP's ability to win the seat.
.
The fact that Tom is drawing big crowds where ever he goes now may be more of an indication where this election is headed than the 24/7 spin from the liberal media complex
NDP’s shift to centre unsettles socialist caucus
Thomas Mulcair’s deliberate move to the centre of the policy spectrum has disillusioned some long-time, left-leaning elements within his party. But the prospect of an NDP government in Ottawa – one that will represent the voice of the Canadian labour movement – is preventing dissenters from abandoning ship.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndps-shift-to-centre-unsett...
So don't expect an open letter, like the one Andrea Horwath received last year from the NDP 34
The difference between an NDP minority and majority government is Ontario.
I can see the NDP having a reasonable chance at 115-120 seats outside of Ontario, so the remaining 50-55 seats needed must come from there.
Here are the 121 seats of Ontario:
http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php
A good exercise would be to rank them all in terms of the NDP's ability to win the seat.
For sure
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Hamilton Mountain
London—Fanshawe
Niagara Centre
Nickel Belt
Ottawa Centre
Thunder Bay—Rainy River
Timmins—James Bay
Toronto—Danforth
Windsor—Tecumseh
Windsor West
Probably
Beaches—East York
Davenport
Essex
Hamilton Centre
Oshawa
Parkdale—High Park
Sarnia—Lambton
Scarborough North
Sudbury
Thunder Bay—Superior North
University—Rosedale
Waterloo
York South—Weston
Possible
Brampton Centre
Brampton East
Brantford—Brant
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Kenora
Kitchener Centre
London West
Ottawa—Vanier
Perth—Wellington
Niagara Falls
Sault Ste. Marie
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough Southwest
Spadina—Fort York
Toronto Centre
York Centre
Outside shot
Bay of Quinte
Cambridge
Don Valley North
Durham
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Etobicoke North
Guelph
Haldimand—Norfolk
Humber River—Black Creek
Kingston and the Islands
Kitchener—Conestoga
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
London North Centre
Nipissing—Timiskaming
Ottawa West—Nepean
Peterborough—Kawartha
St. Catharines
Scarborough—Agincourt
Scarborough—Guildwood
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Toronto—St. Paul's
Whitby
No
Ajax
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Barrie—Innisfil
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Brampton North
Brampton South
Brampton West
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Burlington
Carleton
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Dufferin—Caledon
Eglinton—Lawrence
Etobicoke Centre
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Huron—Bruce
Kanata—Carleton
King—Vaughan
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
Markham—Stouffville
Markham—Thornhill
Markham—Unionville
Milton
Mississauga Centre
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Mississauga—Malton
Mississauga—Streetsville
Nepean
Newmarket—Aurora
Niagara West
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Oakville
Oakville North—Burlington
Orléans
Ottawa South
Oxford
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Pickering—Uxbridge
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Richmond Hill
Simcoe—Grey
Simcoe North
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Thornhill
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Wellington—Halton Hills
Willowdale
York—Simcoe
NDP’s shift to centre unsettles socialist caucus <snip>
So don't expect an open letter, like the one Andrea Horwath received last year from the NDP 34
OK - the NDP 34 are quiet - but which party will get "the progressive vote" in ON? The fed election in ON is starting to look like the recent ON election. I think Tom peaked a few weeks back. Long time still to come - more debates, more "events" so lets just remember that HARPER is the enemy.
Does the NDP leader resemble Corbyn or Blair? - be honest!!
No one resembles Corbyn. Both Trudeau and Mulcair resemble Blair. Agree with the peaking though.
No one resembles Corbyn. Both Trudeau and Mulcair resemble Blair. Agree with the peaking though.
So we get Tony Blair for PM (or Harper). No wonder its tied up, eh?