Trudeau in trouble, trailing NPD in Papineau according to CROP, Quebec's gold pollster - Sep 17

I posted this in the Trudeau thread.

As I said there, I am less concerned about Trudeau's personal fortune, and tweaking other babblers' noses.

More important is who might gain control of the Liberal Party (and quite possibly the balance of power for the entire country in a minority situation) if he does lose?

Trudeau certainly isn't the most progressive politician, but neither is he the least progressive in the Liberal camp. Trudeau may have lots of style, and a legacy, and he certainly did help pull the Liberals' numbers out of the basement. But once the election is over, do they really need him?

 

NorthReport wrote:

What does the NDP need to do now to move into majority territory

NDP at 34% support, now has a sizeable 5% lead over the Liberals, and a commanding 8% lead over the Cons. 

Cons - 26%

Libs - 29%

NDP out in front as Conservatives trail in third: Environics poll

http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2015/09/17/ndp-out-in-front-as-conserva...

According to this poll, to move into majority territory, the NDP needs to improve their numbers in Ontario.

bekayne wrote:

About that Papineau poll...

https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/3ldusy/controversy_arou...

Furthermore, the NDP has given to the media, which includes Le Devoir, an abridged version of the report that do not mention crucial data. A chart, which Le Devoir obtained from another source, shows that 14% of respondents have voted Liberal in Papineau, back in 2011. Yet, Justin Trudeau won with 38% of the votes. Likewise, 14% of the respondents said that they voted for the Bloc Québécois back in 2011. The Bloc had gotten 26% of the votes.

On the other hand, 32% if the survey respondents mentioned they voted NDP back in 2011, while the party received 28% of the votes.

Marc-André Viau, spokesperson for the NDP, indicated that the party is perfectly confident in the survey’s methodology. “Don’t forget that the riding’s borders have been changed since 2011, which has an impact on the answers”, he said.

He explained that the NDP gave the media an abridged version of the survey for the sake of simplicity.

 

I wouldn't worry too much about anything that NR posts re polling.  NR's approach is to ignore any poll that doesn't support NR's primary obession and to call bias/incompetence on those who produce results that NR doesn't want to see. Over time, that has been pretty much every reputable pollster.

NR's own record of predicting the result is so spectacularly bad that NR was the only Babble poster during the 2014 Ontario election to get it more wrong than did Ipsos (and Ipsos predicted a Tim Hudak win).

If we simply accept NRs obession and discount NRs comments accordingly, we'll all be better off.

It is of course possible that NR may happen upon good data every once in a while, but like the boy who cried wolf....

I posted this under another topic:

It's a little simplistic to dismiss this as an "NDP poll." About three weeks ago I heard that internal NDP polling showed that Trudeau was in trouble in Papineau. The party did not release that poll because they knew it would be dismissed as partisan. Instead they commissioned CROP, a respected independent pollster, to take its own soundings. They had good reason to expect their own poll would be confirmed but the point is that they sought independent confirmation.

Any poll paid for by a party should be viewed with great skepticism.

Just because the NDP paid for the poll doesn't mean it isn't valid. Every poll that is published is paid for by somebody. You do realize that right?

 

So now that the NDP is finally commissioning polls from major companies they don't matter?

 

Trudeau is in trouble. I said it weeks ago and everyone shouted me down. Once this news spreads that he won't even be sitting in the House the progressive vote will stampede to Mulcair. That is why the Libs don't want people to talk about Trudeau losing in Papineau.

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Not if it's from a company with an excellent reputation. The notion that CROP would throw its credibility away to get a few bucks from the NDP is inane. You do realize that people will see the truth of this poll in a very short time frame, right? CROP doesn't want people saying, "those guys? The ones who thought Trudeau was gonna lose his seat? Look how that turned out. Who cares what they think?" A polling company's track record is vastly more important than who paid for their polls. CROP has an excellent record, as I'm sure you're aware. I also think you know that they aren't going to throw that record away to do a push-poll for the NDP, so I really don't understand why you keep hammering this point when it so clearly doesn't add up.

CROP can simply say that this was not one their independent polls, but was done on behest of a client, and thus any comparison is apples and oranges. 

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

No comparison. In BC, there were only two parties fighting for government, the BCNDP was a mess, and Christy was the incumbent. On the federal scene there's a three-way race, the Libs aren't even the Opposition, and they are fighting with the NDP to be the anti-Harper vote. If this becomes accepted as true, the Libs are toast.

Oh please the NDP was LEADING in all the polls, and Clark was danger of losing her seat. According to your logic it would make no sense for progressives to vote for a losing party. Instead Clark pulled off the impossible but still lost her seat. Plus the BC Liberals aren't even progressive to begin with! They are made up of Blue Liberals and Social Credit members.

 Its funny Josh and Pondering gripe about neoliberals and then cheerleader for the Liberals, how can anyone take them seriously.

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Have you ever heard any polling company say this? Because I haven't. And I think it would be stupid if they did.

yeah but we talk about Forum all the time! (that is a joke by the way)

I have hired pollsters during campaigns.  Usually, it is to test "lines" or "messages" as to effectiveness in changing votes.  As such, there are questions that proceed the vote intention question.  This leads to different results than otherwise. 

On the other hand, many of the "private" polling does the same thing, asks questions prior to the vote intention question.  So, the poll that asked questions about Duffy prior to the vote intention question will have a reduced Conservative vote. 

I would not expect private and public polls to produce equivalent results unless I knew that there were no "Push" questions asked first in either of them.

Obviously some privately commissioned polls are done in a wholly manipulative manner to generate results with quotable statistics that can be made public: as in the "80% of all dentists recommend Crest toothpaste" variety.

But most "internal polling" commissioned by political parties is done to inform key campaign decisions re policy, communications and allocation of resources, etc.  Given that they are often very much more focused that the national polls (on a specific riding, issue or demographic) the results are often very insightful.

But these results are usually held tightly for obvious reasons, - and leaked only to media when there is a perceived strategic advantage. In this case, to presumably fluster the Trudeau campaign and compel him to spend a little more time back in Papineau. Or to start to get the public wondering about what a Liberal Party without Trudeau in the House might look like.   

If legit, I don't know why the NDP would want this poll released.  Particularly so early in the campaign.  Wouldn't they want to keep it underwraps so that Trudeau doesn't know he is in danger of losing?  This galvanizes Liberals.

Let's get real though.  Even if he does lose (unlikely) someone will step aside for him in some riding in Mississauga or Ottawa or Peterborough.  Trudeau is not going anyway.

 The point is to make Trudeau look weak and demoralize his team.

sherpa-finn wrote:

Obviously some privately commissioned polls are done in a wholly manipulative manner to generate results with quotable statistics that can be made public: as in the "80% of all dentists recommend Crest toothpaste" variety.

But most "internal polling" commissioned by political parties is done to inform key campaign decisions re policy, communications and allocation of resources, etc.  Given that they are often very much more focused that the national polls (on a specific riding, issue or demographic) the results are often very insightful.

But these results are usually held tightly for obvious reasons, - and leaked only to media when there is a perceived strategic advantage. In this case, to presumably fluster the Trudeau campaign and compel him to spend a little more time back in Papineau. Or to start to get the public wondering about what a Liberal Party without Trudeau in the House might look like.   

Absolutely. And to answer Ciabatta2 and Terry Towel. Yes, the release of the poll will fire up the Liberals and may make Trudeau visit his seat more often. That is the point. It also creates doubt. If the people of Papineau know him the best and even they are not going to vote him into office what does that say? Anyone who has followed politics for awhile knows about this old tactic. Release an internal poll with good news and keep the others under wraps. As for the claim that a leading question was asked I have not seen any of evidence of that. Finally, this poll is not out of line for the results we are seeing for Quebec as a whole so why are people so surprised.

terrytowel wrote:

jjuares wrote:

Absolutely. And to answer Ciabatta2 and Terry Towel. Yes, the release of the poll will fire up the Liberals and may make Trudeau visit his seat more often.

If true NO it won't make Trudeau visit his seat more often. He has star power he has not unleashed. His wife, his brother and his mother. All three can equally campaign in place of Trudeau.

jjuares wrote:

That is the point. It also creates doubt. If the people of Papineau know him the best and even they are not going to vote him into office what does that say? Anyone who has followed politics for awhile knows about this old tactic. Release an internal poll with good news and keep the others under wraps. As for the claim that a leading question was asked I have not seen any of evidence of that. Finally, this poll is not out of line for the results we are seeing for Quebec as a whole so why are people so surprised.

It didn't hurt Christy Clark one bit, and I doubt it would hurt Trudeau

I agree it may not work. I should have been clear this is why it was done. As I said in another thread there are lots of leaders who have lost their seat and won the general election. But no matter how it gets spinned it is not good news for the Liberals.

Ciabatta2 wrote:

If legit, I don't know why the NDP would want this poll released.  Particularly so early in the campaign.  Wouldn't they want to keep it underwraps so that Trudeau doesn't know he is in danger of losing?  This galvanizes Liberals.

Let's get real though.  Even if he does lose (unlikely) someone will step aside for him in some riding in Mississauga or Ottawa or Peterborough.  Trudeau is not going anyway.

 

I totally agree. It's stupid for NDP to release something like this. These are bad tactics for any party. If these numbers are really correct, then don't even talk about them in public. 

By the way, I believe Liberal leader will be elected easily in this riding.

The poll could've also been released to draw soft Liberal supporters and undecided voters to the NDP in southern Ontario and elsewhere.

Terry, what's the point? IT'S OVER!

I never thought Justin would lose his seat either, but I trust CROP. Not to say that one poll is conclusive, but it seems the danger is real.