Newfoundland and Labrador general election, November 30, 2015

I guess Cleary figures that it will be easier to get elected as a PC in St. John's next month than as an NDPer?

He also says that he has a 'frosty' relationship with Earle McCurdy.

In any event, this is the fastest switch someone has made from one party to another since David Emerson in 2006.

I know this is a little over-the-top, but I had to look this up on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arwTvFPvpBQ

My gut feelings is Cleary was a PC all along. He just used the NDP to get to Ottawa. Cleary wants to get back at the Liberals, not just be opportunistic. He is hurting a lot of people, not just NDP activists, doing this right after the Federal election.

I can't see how this sorry affair will help the PCs.

bekayne wrote:

robbie_dee wrote:

This probably deserves its own thread now that it's only a month away. Not a good start for the NDP:

[url=http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/ryan-cleary-running-... Ryan Cleary to announce PC candidacy in St. John's today[/url]

Ryan Cleary, who was defeated just last week as a New Democratic MP, will officially reveal plans Friday to become a provincial Tory. 

CBC News has learned that Cleary will seek the PC nomination in Windsor Lake, and will announce his intentions at 3 p.m. at Clovelly golf course, likely with Premier Paul Davis at his side.

If he wins the nomination, Cleary will square off against high-profile Liberal MHA Cathy Bennett in the Nov. 30 election.

According to sources, the PCs believe that landing Cleary as a candidate sends a message that the NDP is a non-factor in this election.

Party insiders also hope it will attract other high profile candidates to their slate.

 

Don't the Tories need them to split the anti-government vote?

[/quote]

The Tories need to consolidate the anti-Liberal vote.

Part of me wonders whether Cleary will lose the nomination to another PC who comes forth at the last minute. The PCs can still revel in the damage they did to the NLNDP, especially pouring salt in Jack Harris' wounds. They can say, oh well, the membership has spoken.

Cleary leaves the political stage, disgraced and humiliated.

Wouldnt it be great if Jack Harris decided to run for the NL NDP against Ryan Cleary!!

I don't know, it's probably best to keep your distance from Cleary in every way.

Local business woman and former St. John's South - Mount Pearl federal NDP candidate Peg Norman's response to Cleary's switch:

I ran as the NDP candidate St. John's South - Mount Pearl in 2004 and 2006. I made the difficult decision to not run a third time in 2008. Ryan Cleary came forward wanting to be the NDP candidate. After meeting with Ryan and getting to know him, I supported his nomination and campaigned with him in his initial run. I supported him again in 2011 when he won.

His move today from the NDP to the provincial PC's is one of the most bizarre actions I've seen in partisan politics in my lifetime. For the past 6 months (and more for some) party members, party supporters, Ryan supporters and the labour movement have been actively working to get him re-elected as a NDP MP for St. John's South-Mt. Pearl.

He gladly took our money and our time. Both, for many, is in short supply. We gave and we volunteered and we encouraged our neighbours and friends and family to support Ryan because we believed in either him or the party. For some, one of the two, some both. In my circle, he was often a hard sell. My belief in the principles of social democracy meant that he was my candidate of choice, as he was a member of the federal NDP and espoused those principles every day. I tend to trust those who speak about their ideology with such conviction. It's what allows me to get through each day, knowing that I am among people who believe that it is possible to do better in our province, our country and our world.

But today. What a kick in the teeth. This move is clearly an indictment of Ryan's dishonesty and disloyalty. This is clearly the actions of a person who has absolutely no understanding of political ideology and is solely motivated by a narcissistic attempt to be on top. Sadly, the greatest fall-out of all of this was the loss of one of the best MP's this province has ever had. Many, sadly, abandoned Jack Harris's campaign to work for Ryan. We foolishly assumed that Jack was safe, and Ryan was at the greatest risk of losing his seat. All knew how important it was to retain both New Democrat seats and worked like dogs to help do it. Here's a text I received from a party supporter Wednesday evening when this news first came to light: "Spent days doing door to door in two polls and pulled votes E-day for the nimrod! Because I thought Jack was safe…" .

What an utter betrayal of everyone who worked to get him re-elected. What an utter betrayal of his constituents. And what an utter betrayal of his colleague Jack Harris. 
This is not the kind of politics I want any part of. Ryan Cleary does not represent anything that I believe in. He is a self-serving, egotistical little man who deserves no repsect from anyone. I feel most for his children and family. They have to continue to live with him.

"If my Mom hates his guts, good luck with my Dad," says my Wife. Her parents live a few hundred metres outside of Windsor Lake district. I hope Cleary doesn't accidentally wander upon their land.

Basement Dweller wrote:

I know some people will think I'm totally insane, but what if the NLNDP doesn't contest Windsor Lake. Seeing Cleary get crushed by a Liberal in a two way race, probably by a 10-1 vote, would be amusing. 

That's if those NDP voters went to the Liberals. There seems to be a lot of New Democrats in this province who prefer the PCs to the Liberals. While some previous NDP supporters - and candidates - went to the Liberals over the last few years I know of several New Democrats who have started supporting the PCs over the last year or so. A big reason why Jack Harris and Ryan Cleary got elected was due to a lot of PCs supporting them over the Conservatives.

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

This columns also discusses how Ryan Cleary was a bit of a controversial figure within the NDP. While he had his supporters there were also a lot of people within the party who didn't like him or his style. It seems to me that Cleary isn't really an ideologue. He's a Newfoundland (and Labrador) nationalist. Traditionally the PCs have attracted those nationalists. Danny Williams was very much a nationalist, as was Brian Peckford. I don't know how much him going to the PCs has helped that party but it seems to have hurt the NDP.

I guess the PCs told Cleary he'd be the next Danny Williams, and he believed them. He's not even a Brian Peckford.

The NLNDP was already struggling, but now they are hurt. Maybe that will motivate them. We'll see.

Liberals poised to win election with landslide, poll suggests: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/abacus-data-poll-newfoundland-labrador-1.3306827

robbie_dee wrote:

Could the Liberals pull off a Frank McKenna-style 40 seat sweep in NL?

For some reason, 308 is projecting five seats for the NLNDP (and one for the PCs).

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/atlantic.html

If the absence of visible signs of organization/support are any indication (e.g., election signs, campaign HQs, etc) the St. John's NDP (they are not a province-wide party) is headed for a major disaster. Like back to the heady days of the 1980s when they had no elected representatives, including a seatless leader. Liberals appear to be pouring tons of resources into St. John's, especially targeting the only 2 remaining NDP incumbents. After the loss of Jack Harris as an MP, many of them seem to be resigned to losing. They have no money, half the candidates they need and almost all their younger organizers left over the past 2 years. Pretty desperate times

I doubt the Liberals will be able to sweep every seat.  I suspect Gerry Rodgers will hold on to St. John's Centre and the NDP to pick-up Labrador West (which rarely goes Liberal).  I don't think Lorraine will hold on to her seat and N&L NDP Leader McCurdy has a tough fight in St. John's West.  

A_J wrote:

Local business woman and former St. John's South - Mount Pearl federal NDP candidate Peg Norman's response to Cleary's switch

Peg Norman can complain, but this does however point to an ongoing issue with the party's ability to make good judgement calls.  Was he such a skilled grifter that he managed to bamboozle everyone he encountered within the ranks of the NDP.  Seems to be a recurring issue with the NDP if we look at what gets a pass for leadership positions within the party.  Or is it the case that party applicants whose primary motivation amounts to clutching after the brass ring are a dime a dozen, and so that type of character wouldn't necessarily show up as something out of the ordinary? I think the whole affair tells on itself.

Slumberjack wrote:

Peg Norman can complain, but this does however point to an ongoing issue with the party's ability to make good judgement calls.  Was he such a skilled grifter that he managed to bamboozle everyone he encountered within the ranks of the NDP.  Seems to be a recurring issue with the NDP if we look at what gets a pass for leadership positions within the party.  Or is it the case that party applicants whose primary motivation amounts to clutching after the brass ring are a dime a dozen, and so that type of character wouldn't necessarily show up as something out of the ordinary? I think the whole affair tells on itself.

Well, obviously he wasn't entirely trusted by many activists in the NLNDP. I understand some blamed him, rightly or wrongly, for internal troublemaking. By "the party", I'm not sure if you're just refering to the NLNDP or NDP in general. In the NLNDP, there are probably a lot of "big fish in a small pond" who enjoy a little bit of power way too much, and feel threatened by any outsider. 

But I don't think the NLNDP has normally attracted the callously ambitious types. Their brief electoral success may have left them offguard against someone like Cleary.

IMHO, the dysfunction in the NLNDP shows much more clearly  with the loss of Kirby and Mitchelmore. They tried to work out their relationships with NLNDP but realized it was best to walk away. Meanwhile, Cleary's stunt was more like having wild sex with a new lover while the ex is still in the next room packing up their belongings.

Cleary's character failures fall entirely on his shoulders.

RandySil wrote:

McCurdy and Rogers were invisible in their districts until Sunday when they FINALLY put some election signs up. McCurdy is too polarizing a figure to garner the level of support needed to win. He might end up a close third on election night.

Rogers is the only ND who has a remote chance of hanging on but it has become widely known as well that Rogers HATES being in office so it's likely she won't put a lot of effort into getting re-elected.

Michael was actually first out of the gate with her sign campaign but because she almost single-handily destroyed most of the NDP’s momentum in the province, she has only a very small circle to count on for support. Watch for her to be defeated early on election night.

The "star candidates" like Panting have been in place for months yet seem to have done little or nothing on the ground. He may be lucky enough to get his deposit back but that’s a big IF.

Buckingham is in the news almost every day representing a sickening individual who shot his ex-girlfriend in cold blood. People are outraged that he was permitted to run by McCurdy. If he finds the time to go door to door he will be in for fairly negative feedback.

Don’t be overly surprised if the NDs elect no one on Election Day.

Does McCurdy have really bad personal polling numbers? I haven't seen any. I do remember a bump up to about 25% provincially when McCurdy was first elected leader.

As for Buckingham, isn't he just doing his job as a part of the justice system? I agree the optics aren't good though.

Why would Rogers run if she doesn't want to be in office?

Basement Dweller wrote:

RandySil wrote:

McCurdy and Rogers were invisible in their districts until Sunday when they FINALLY put some election signs up. McCurdy is too polarizing a figure to garner the level of support needed to win. He might end up a close third on election night.

Rogers is the only ND who has a remote chance of hanging on but it has become widely known as well that Rogers HATES being in office so it's likely she won't put a lot of effort into getting re-elected.

Michael was actually first out of the gate with her sign campaign but because she almost single-handily destroyed most of the NDP’s momentum in the province, she has only a very small circle to count on for support. Watch for her to be defeated early on election night.

The "star candidates" like Panting have been in place for months yet seem to have done little or nothing on the ground. He may be lucky enough to get his deposit back but that’s a big IF.

Buckingham is in the news almost every day representing a sickening individual who shot his ex-girlfriend in cold blood. People are outraged that he was permitted to run by McCurdy. If he finds the time to go door to door he will be in for fairly negative feedback.

Don’t be overly surprised if the NDs elect no one on Election Day.

Does McCurdy have really bad personal polling numbers? I haven't seen any. I do remember a bump up to about 25% provincially when McCurdy was first elected leader.

As for Buckingham, isn't he just doing his job as a part of the justice system? I agree the optics aren't good though.

Why would Rogers run if she doesn't want to be in office?

McCurdy is a polarizing guy to an extent but I think he can get elected. This forum poll below shows a three-way split on his performance.

Buckingham is doing his job but it doesn't look good, but that's his own choice. I brought it up simply based on the fact that he can't be doing much campaigning. Same with another St. John's area candidate, Mark Gruchy. Gruchy is the lawyer for a man accused of killing someone back in October. 

I've never heard that Rogers doesn't like being in office. If true I'd say she could be running out of loyalty for the party or to secure her pension.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/cc34a487-0298-449e-8334-86690c3fbba3N...(2015%2011%2006)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

Davis blames bad poll numbers on the Trudeau effect

November 06, 2015

Premier Paul Davis says dismal poll numbers for his party are just a side effect of the recent federal election win by the Liberals, but he believes his party has “already turned it around.”

---

http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Election-2015/2015-11-06/article-4335498...

Basement Dweller wrote:

I'm not sure if you're just refering to the NLNDP or NDP in general. 

The federal faction for the moment.

Quote:

Cleary's character failures fall entirely on his shoulders.

Oh I don't buy that entirely.  If I'm a boss and interview someone for a job, hire them to represent the company and they turn out to be a total idiot, in that scenario it would make sense to call my judgement into question.  Federal NDP party politiks and their ability to make a judgement call owns a share of this as well.  They obviously don't know who they're bringing in or what they're capable of.

Debater wrote:

Davis blames bad poll numbers on the Trudeau effect

November 06, 2015

Premier Paul Davis says dismal poll numbers for his party are just a side effect of the recent federal election win by the Liberals, but he believes his party has “already turned it around.”

---

http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Election-2015/2015-11-06/article-4335498...

I think the "Davis effect" has more to do with it

bekayne wrote:

I think the "Davis effect" has more to do with it

I agree.

That's why I put a laughing emoticon next to what Davis said.

He's trying to pretend the reason the NL Cons have bad numbers is because of the Trudeau Wave in Atlantic Canada.

That certainly gives the NL Libs a boost, but it ignores the fact that Davis himself has had bad numbers long before the Federal Election took place.

Being 45 points behind are good numbers?