Bright Spots?

adma wrote:

Uh, if you noticed, I was *not* talking about the final result.  In fact, I specified: "had Mulcair maintained his mid-election "landslide advantage" in Quebec."  That is, when the NDP was soaring to provincewide numbers equal to if not beyond 2011; i.e. if you're to dismiss said poll as "bogus", you might as well do likewise with just about every other poll at that moment.

But it was also found out later that a ridiculous number of those polled had voted for the NDP in 2011. That obviously skewed the results as Trudeau won that election.

Pondering wrote:

But it was also found out later that a ridiculous number of those polled had voted for the NDP in 2011. That obviously skewed the results as Trudeau won that election.

Yeah, but what of all the other Quebec polls of the moment?  Why single out that one, other than it being "convenient" to do so? 

(Which may, in the end, more an issue about polling at large than about this particular instance.  But, to repeat: judging from the final result, however "skewed" that poll was, it might not have been far from the truth--or at least, far closer to the truth than the final 2:1 advantage was.)

In a thread called "Bright Spots" who the hell cares which polls were right or wrong.

Mulcair the former Quebec Liberal got outpolled by the federal Liberals on the only day that counts because he took the 2011 progressive voters for granted and thought he could broaden his appeal to include red tories who like balanced budgets and wanted to hear that the government would study pot before making changes because it might be inherently evil and lead to mental ilness just like the Conservatives claim.

The most inept NDP campaign ever.

Debater wrote:

lagatta wrote:

I was in tears last night, but it was of course too much to think that the competent, cultivated, really bilingual (without gross errors) and progressive Anne Lagacé Dowson could have bested the Upper Class Twit of the Year. But it was good to flush Harper.

So you were rooting for a parachute candidate who didn't even get chosen by the NDP riding association in Papineau or even bother to set up an office in the riding?

Last night the former NDP Papineau President basically tweeted that he was glad to see Dowson go down after the parachute stunt she pulled.

Don't blame Anne L-D for the itchy trigger fingers of the NDP hierarchy, which sacked a nominated candidate, Beatrice Zako, just 3 months before the election. --Why? because she had some comments in her sovereignist days that would have sat well in a Conservative attack ad in September.

And the riding President had a right to be angry -- his chance for a nomination was ruled out by the newly parachuted star candidate, who in the end was defeated 2-1. But not her decision to come in as an outsider so late in  the game. That was NDP Quebec central, likely Blaikie, I would imagine. Failure of due diligence, at a minimum.

DaveW wrote:

Don't blame Anne L-D for the itchy trigger fingers of the NDP hierarchy, which sacked a nominated candidate, Beatrice Zako, just 3 months before the election. --Why? because she had some comments in her sovereignist days that would have sat well in a Conservative attack ad in September.

And the riding President had a right to be angry -- his chance for a nomination was ruled out by the newly parachuted star candidate, who in the end was defeated 2-1. But not her decision to come in as an outsider so late in  the game. That was NDP Quebec central, likely Blaikie, I would imagine. Failure of due diligence, at a minimum.

Though I hate to tell you this, but Zako wouldn't have done any better vs Justin.  This is a case where, at the ballot box, the parachute star actually *did* bolster the final result (even if it's 26% vs, say, circa 20%)

Though much the same could be said about Adam Giambrone in the Scarborough-Guildwood provincial byelection; so, make of that what you will.

I'm celebrating that even after the departure of Libby Davies there's still a lesbian MP, Sheri Benson from Saskatchewan. 

I’ve followed with interest the discussion about Trudeau’s hold on Papineau, especially the comments by Adma in #151 and Debater.

Debater takes the position that the CROP poll showing Trudeau trailing was “bogus.” This was a line successfully floated by the Liberals not just the defuse the news that their leader might lose his seat but also to attack the honesty of the NDP in distributing a phony poll.

First of all Trudeau’s appeal in Papineau was always overstated by his backers. Papineau had voted Liberal every election since its creation except once in the 40s when Camilien Houde narrowly won it as an independent and in 2006 when the Bloc snatched it by about 100 votes. In 2008 the Liberals did quite well in Quebec under Dion, in contrast to the rest of the country. They gained both in popular vote and seats. Trudeau won in Papineau but the Liberal vote there went up by much less than the Liberal vote in Quebec as a whole and by surrounding seats in particular. (I wrote a long post about this with the statistics in some forgotten thread.)

In 2011 Trudeau’s vote went down and he won on a split vote largely because the former Bloc MP he defeated in ’08 ran again and maintained a large personal vote. The Blo vote in Paineau held up much better than most of Montreal.

So let’s look at the “fake” CROP poll. First of all in early September I had heard from NDP sources that Trudeau was in trouble and in fact that the NDP was in contention in every seat in Montreal except a few in the West Island. Jean Lapierre said on CTV that the Liberals were concerned that they would lose several Montreal seats. I wrote about this in a post on Babble about this time.

In that time frame, as Adma points out, the NDP was at its zenith in Quebec. A Mainstreet poll published on Sept. 2nd gave the NDP a lead over the Liberals in Montreal of 33 to 21 with 14 % undecided. Amongst Francophones it was 42 to 21.

The CROP poll was taken between Sept 11 and 14 and had the NDP in the lead by 46 to 35. About the same time Environics had the NDP ahead on the Liberals in Quebec by 52 to 16 and Ekos by 41 to 20.

A Mainstreet poll taken Sept. 17 gave Trudeau a narrow lead of 41 to 36 in Papineau. The point was made somewhere that if the CROP poll had not been released with the furious counter-attack by the Liberals that the headlines from the Mainstreet poll would have been “Trudeau in Trouble in Papineau.” Ironic.

The Liberals prevailed in Quebec by roughly 36 to 25 % over the NDP, on the strength of a sharp late swing and a gradual gain from mid-September onwards. Taking the Sept. 17 EKOS the Liberals gained 16% by election day and the NDP fell by the same amount. Trudeau won Papineau by 52 to 26. Extrapolating the EKOS numbers against the final results indicates  that in mid-September the NDP would have been at 42% in Papineau and Trudeau at 36. If we use the Environic numbers the margin would have been 53 to 32.

It therefore becomes clear that the CROP numbers were more than plausible. The Liberals, abetted by the mainstream media, did a masterful job debunking the poll and turning it against the NDP. They portrayed the NDP as deceitful in peddling a fake poll where it is much more likely that the Liberals were deceitful in pretending Trudeau was not in trouble in his own riding.

Though for every Quadra '84, there's an Etob-LS '11.  Remember that.

As I recall the poll didn't ask a random bunch of people. That is what made the result suspect, not simply the fact that it was an NDP poll.

According to the poll report posted by Le Devoir the sample included 117 male respondents and 258 female respondents. According to the census, 50.1 per cent of residents in Papineau are women and 49.9 per cent are men.

But this poll had the number of women respondents at 69 per cent. Though CROP weighted the results to match the census, there can be a problem if a poll comes out of the field with such unrepresentative results.

The same goes with how respondents in this poll recalled their vote in 2011. According to Le Devoir, just 14 per cent of respondents said they voted for the Liberals. But 38 per cent of people living within the current boundaries of Papineau voted for the Liberals in 2011.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-papineau-se...

The CROP poll was NOT accurate.

How many times do NDP partisans have to keep pretending this?

It was not a real CROP poll anyway.  It was an NDP-commissioned poll.  And it was done PRECISELY so this sort of false narrative could be set up.

It was already debunked by Eric Grenier & Bryan Breguet and many other people:

1.)  It had a small sample size (only about 300 people as opposed to the Mainstreet sample of 650).

2.)  The sample size over-represented people who had voted NDP or BQ in 2011, and included very few Liberals.

3.) Le Devoir discovered that the *NDP HAD REMOVED 3 PAGES* from the sampling methodology !  (Another red flag).

4.)  It was released the same night as the Leaders Debate!  It was obviously a political stunt.

For perspective, let's also keep in mind all those other riding polls across Canada which, as of Aug/early Sep, were showing the NDP in the competitive 20th/30th percentile in ridings where they ultimately wound up struggling to make their deposit or worse (Eglinton-Lawrence being a conspicuous case in point)

A fine crop of MPs!

Wilf Day wrote:

Hello? Are any of these worth celebrating? I found Brigitte Sansoucy a surprise.

Wilf Day wrote:

Bright spots: 16 New NDP MPs, nine women:

Jenny Kwan (Vancouver East), 48, born in Hong Kong, to Canada at age 9, B.A. in Criminology. At 26 she became the youngest-ever member of Vancouver City Council for the left-wing civic party COPE. At 29 elected as NDP MLA for Vancouver Mount Pleasant. At 30 became Minister of Municipal Affairs. Re-elected in 2001, one of two survivors of NDP defeat who carried out guerilla warfare in the two-woman official opposition for four years, re-elected in 2005, 2009 and 2013. Divorced, has a daughter and son.

Brigitte Sansoucy (Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot), 50, has been a municipal councillor of the city of Saint-Hyacinthe since 2009. She became a vice-president of the federal NDP in 2008, re-elected in 2011 and 2013. She had run in the 2007 by-elections that first elected Tom Mulcair to the House of Commons, coming ahead of the Liberal, and in 2008. She has worked in community and social development in the region for 25 years, most recently as Deputy Regional Director at the Ministry of Agriculture for Montérégie-est. She holds a Bachelor of Business Administration and a Masters in Public Administration. She lives in a country house with her spouse and is a mother of four.

Erin Weir (Regina—Lewvan), 32, United Steelworkers Economist, President Progressive Economic Forum, CCPA Research Associate, Former Saskatchewan NDP Government Assistant, B.A  Economics, History and Political Science, M.A-History, MPA, 2004 Wascana Nominee (against Ralph Goodale), 2013 Saskatchewan NDP Leadership Candidate (Withdrew before the Convention and endorsed Dr. Ryan Meili). 

Sheila Malcolmson (Nanaimo—Ladysmith), 49, elected four times to the Islands Trust Council, ending as Chair. With a degree in Environmental and Resource Studies from Trent University in 1985, she was previously an energy policy analyst for a number of non-governmental organizations, and an advisor for the Saskatchewan Electrical Energy Options Panel and the Queen’s University Environmental Policy Centre. Her grandfather was John Osler, one of the founding partners of David Lewis’ law firm Jolliffe, Lewis and Osler.

Daniel Blaikie (Elmwood-Transcona), 31. His father Bill Blaikie was this riding’s MP for 29 years. Electrician, an active member of his union (IBEW 2085) and sits on the executive of the Winnipeg Labour Council. Was Ministerial Assistant to Former M.L.A Theresa Oswald, Former Party Organizer, B.A (Hons)-History and Philosophy, M.A-Philosophy.  Lives with his wife Janelle and young son Robert. His sister Rebecca Blaikie is federal NDP President.

Georgina Jolibois (Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River), 48, a proud Dene who was born and raised in La Loche. She was successful in obtaining a 4-year University degree in Political Studies & Native Studies from the University of Saskatchewan. Georgina has served four terms as Mayor of La Loche, and chaired New North, an advocacy group of 35 communities in northern Saskatchewan. She had tried to win the NDP nomination in 2006, but lost by four votes.

Sheri Benson (Saskatoon West), 50.  Career at United Way for over 20 years, CEO since 2009. Bachelor of Social Work.  She was the inaugural Justice of the Peace for Saskatchewan’s Victims of Domestic Violence Act. A proud mother and grandmother.

Tracey Ramsey (Essex), 43. As a Unifor National Discussion leader, she has taught courses on human rights, women’s issues, conflict resolution, modern communications, and other themes. Unifor Local 200’s delegate to the Windsor District Labour Council. Worked for Ford Motor Company for the past 19 years. After being laid off, she graduated in Practical Nursing at St. Clair College of Applied Arts and Technology. Tracey, a first-time candidate, lives with her husband and their two sons.

Karine Trudel (Jonquière), 38, letter carrier since 1999, president of the CUPW local in Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean for eight years. She is a college graduate in human sciences with courses in business administration, single mother of two boys aged 8 and 10. “The trigger that made me sure I want to be a candidate was when Peter MacKay said there were few women on the Supreme Court because they felt guilty of abandoning their children at home.”

Cheryl Hardcastle (Windsor—Tecumseh), 53, Tecumseh’s Deputy Mayor (2011-2014). Before entering politics, Cheryl worked for almost 20 years as a reporter and editor of the former Tecumseh Tribune. A founding member of the Tecumseh Area Historical Society — and spearheaded the successful campaign to have the Great Native Confederacy Leader Tecumseh commemorated on an official stamp. Proud mother of four adult children.

Rachel Blaney (North Island—Powell River), 41, Executive Director Multicultural and Immigrant Services of North Vancouver Island, previously  employment officer for the Homalco First Nation, B.A-First Nations and Women's Studies. Rachel’s husband is a former Chief and current Council member of the Homalco First Nation. Together, they are the proud parents of three children.

Scott Duvall (Hamilton Mountain), 58, three-term city councillor, Steelworkers Union Local President, United Way Director. Scott and his wife Sherry are proud parents of three daughters and grandparents of two.

Gord Johns (Courtenay—Alberni), 45, Tofino Town Councilor 2008-2011, Executive Director Tofino-Long Beach Chamber of Commerce since 2010, Former C.E.O EcoEverything (Clothing and environmental related products retailer), Former Art Gallery Owner, proud father of three children.

Richard Cannings (South Okanagan-West Kootenay), 61, Program Biologist and Author of a dozen award-winning books on the natural history of British Columbia, Bird Studies Canada Bird Population Count Consultant, B.Sc (Hons)-Zoology, M.Sc-Animal Biology, 2013 Provincial NDP candidate in Penticton (South Okanagan).  Like his father, he was born in Penticton. Former U.B.C Zoology Museum Curator for 15 years, Richard, his wife and children moved back to the Okanagan Valley in 1995.

Alistair MacGregor (Cowichan-Malahat-Langford), 35, Former M.P. Jean Crowder’s Constituency Assistant for eight years. Has a B.A-Political Science, and was a Tree Plant Supervisor while getting his M.A. in Professional Communications. Alistair and his wife are proud parents to young twin daughters.

Wayne Stetski (Kootenay-Columbia), 61, former Mayor of Cranbrook, was Regional Manager B.C Ministry of Environment and then Manager of the East Kootenay Conservation Program, Chair of Cranbrook and Kimberley United Way, Cranbrook Minor Hockey Manager, B.Sc. in Ecology, Minor in Economics. Has 3 adult children and 1 granddaughter.