Newfoundland and Labrador general election, November 30, 2015

montrealer58 wrote:

Defeating this Conservative government will mean not one government in Canada is labelled 'Conservative' of any kind. By the federal results it seems that 'Conservative' is a fairly toxic brand in Atlantic Canada.

According to the 2 main political journalists the NDP may be even more toxic that the Conservatives: How big will the Liberals' majority in Newfoundland and Labrador be?

Stockholm wrote:

Its never been all that clear to my why exactly the Newfoundland PCs are so ridiculously unpopular...

It might just come down to the brand.  Ideologically speaking, there's really little to no difference between Liberals and Conservatives in NL.

Stockholm wrote:

Except that in the past Newfoundlanders have had no problem totally rejecting the federal Tories but still voting PC provincially...in 2008 and 2011 the CPC was crushed in nl and the federal Conservative name was toxic and yet people happily turned around and voted for Danny Williams and for Kathy dunderdale...also the dismal numbers for the Newfoundland PCs didn't just happen after the liberals were elected federally, they have been ridiculously unpopular for the last few years...so I repeat the question why are the Newfoundland PCs so unpopular

Many still link the PCs to the federal Conservatives despite the two parties having a bad relationship. 

People want change for some reason and it's not clear why. The party alienated people under Kathy Dunderdale but recovered some of that since then. Trudeaumania is a big aspect of it in my opinion. The Liberals moved up in the polls after Trudeau was elected leader and have really followed the ups and downs of the federal Liberals since.

Pondering wrote:

RandySil wrote:

montrealer58 wrote:

Defeating this Conservative government will mean not one government in Canada is labelled 'Conservative' of any kind. By the federal results it seems that 'Conservative' is a fairly toxic brand in Atlantic Canada.

According to the 2 main political journalists the NDP may be even more toxic that the Conservatives: How big will the Liberals' majority in Newfoundland and Labrador be?

 

Cochrane notes that N.L. voters heavily backed Justin Trudeau's federal Liberals in October. "It is pretty hard six weeks later to ask them to turn around and vote for a PC government when Dwight Ball and [the N.L. Liberals] are pretty tight with Trudeau."

The above makes sense. People want cooperation between the federal and provincial goverments after the divisiveness of Harper.

 

Well, except that Joey Smallwood and Brian Peckford both made long careers out of NOT cooperating with anybody who was in power federally(I'm guessing Smallwood would say he sometimes made Ottawa cooperate with HIM).

Stockholm wrote:

...so I repeat the question why are the Newfoundland PCs so unpopular

How did the arse end fall out of it for the Tories you ask?

This goes into some detail:

A stupendous Shift

Quote:

Repeated polls have placed the Liberals in the upper stratosphere of popular opinion, revealing an electorate that appears anxious for change in the traditional cycle of power in the House of Assembly.  It's the Liberals' turn, it seems, to govern.

Forum's final poll:

Liberals hold steady lead in Newfoundland and Labrador

NDP loses share in final poll

November 29th, 2015 - In a random sampling of public opinion taken the day before the provincial election by the Forum Poll™, among 1014 Newfoundland and Labrador voters, just more than one half will vote Liberal (54%), while 3-in-10 (31%) will vote for the Progressive Conservatives. The NDP vote is common to one sixth (15%). This stands in comparison to 5 days ago, when the Liberals had a lead of 23 points (November 24, Liberals - 52%, Progressive Conservatives - 29%). In that poll, the NDP had one fifth of the vote (19%).

McCurdy’s favourables down

While Dwight Ball has seen his approval hold steady (44% this week, 45% last), as has Paul Davis (40% now, 39% on November 24), Earle McCurdy has seen his approval drop from 3-in-10 (30%) to just more than a quarter (27%).

Dwight Ball with slim lead for best Premier

Dwight Ball (35%) and Paul Davis (33%) are almost tied for who would make the best Premier, but Earle McCurdy is not competitive (11%). “While a vote share of more than half the province is impressive, it may not be enough to propel the Liberals into a government with no opposition, which appeared to be the case at the beginning of the campaign. We project the Liberals to win 34 seats to 5 for the Progressive Conservatives and one for the NDP," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

--

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2432/ndp-loses-share-in-final-poll

Polls close at 8 NT (6:30 ET)

Elections NL:

http://www.elections.gov.nl.ca/elections/liveCount/index.html

NTV:

http://ntv.ca/livestream/

CBC:

http://www.cbc.ca/includes/provincialelections/newfoundland-labrador/das...

PC's leading in 7 against 31 for the Liberals.  There may be an opposition after all in name only at least. 

Well that didn't take long.  CBC NL calls majority guv for the Liberals.

I don't get why the NDP knifed Lorraine Michael.

She wasn't perfect, but it seems like it was a Carole James situation all over again.

Now the new NDP leader Earle McCurdy won't even be in the Assembly, but it's possible that Michael may hang on to her seat.

The NDP actually managed to hold on to 2 seats in Newfoundland...I wonder if anyone will "self-destruct" at the news.

The world's smallest violin is playing for Ryan Cleary

Should Lorraine Michael replace Earle McCurdy as NDP Leader?

If there is a leadership race I hope Sean Panting runs for it. He seems like a good choice.

What does this mean for McCurdy? Does he step down, lead outside of Caucus, or ask one of the other MHAs to step aside?

Earle McCurdy left the FFAW last year because he was 65 and ready to retire. It seems a bit foolish to think that he'll stay on leader of the NDP when he couldn't win a seat.

Orangutan wrote:

I don't understand the backlash against Lorraine either.   Not perfect, but Dale Kirby (Turncoat MLA and former N&L NDP President) could have easily waited her out if he really wanted to become leader himself.  The internal politics of the NDP damaged our chances here of doing well, as it has in Manitoba as well.

 

Sean Panting is a good choice for leader.  He is young, famous in Newfoundland for his role in the Republic of Doyle and he has connections to Memorial University and the arts community.  

Another good choice for leader would be Lukas Norman, the young NDP candidate from Gander.  I can't recall the last time the N&L NDP had a leader who wasn't from the Greater St. John's area.  

There was a lot more than just Kirby who wanted Lorraine gone.

Sean Panting was suppose to be this big star candidate for the NDP and he ended up placing third. In my opinion it takes more to be a leader than a role in Republic of Doyle. I don't even know if Lukas Norman is finished university yet so the idea of him leading a political party seems a bit ridiculous. If the NDP want to be taken seriously they need a leader who people can see as a premier.

While I don't know if she'd be overly popular outside the NDP, someone like Lana Payne is at least a person who many could see as being up for the role of premier. However, she does have that holier than thou attitude that many in the NDP try and push on the public.

As well on the news tonight they had a breif interview with former MHA George Murphy. It noted that he didn't run for re-election this time becaue of internal party matters. In the interview he said he might run again some day and didn't rule out running for another party.

Orangutan wrote:

I don't understand the backlash against Lorraine either.   Not perfect, but Dale Kirby (Turncoat MLA and former N&L NDP President) could have easily waited her out if he really wanted to become leader himself.  The internal politics of the NDP damaged our chances here of doing well, as it has in Manitoba as well.

 

Sean Panting is a good choice for leader.  He is young, famous in Newfoundland for his role in the Republic of Doyle and he has connections to Memorial University and the arts community.  

Another good choice for leader would be Lukas Norman, the young NDP candidate from Gander.  I can't recall the last time the N&L NDP had a leader who wasn't from the Greater St. John's area.  

 

I agree about Sean Panting being a good choice for leader. Aside from the points already made his dad also ran the NDP in the mid-70's. I also saw him doing a lot of canvassing for votes on Twitter.

Paul Davis might resign his seat soon enough.  Earl could run there if he decides to stick around as leader.

A better idea would be to elect a Sean Panting or Lukas Norman.  A young, dynamic leader could just wait for a by-election to open up.  Not the end of the world if the leader doesnt have a seat.  

Newfoundlander_Labradorian wrote:

If the NDP wants to rebuild they'll put someone in as interim leader and hold a real leadership race in a few years. The NDP need a young leader who can connect with urbanites. Earle is a senior citizen who tries to connect with rural Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

Why can't they find a leader who's good at both? The NDP have previously won Labrador West, and they won in White Bay in 2011.

The NDP has traditionally been strongest in St. John's.  

Here is a list of all NDP MHAs and MPs ever elected, along with some close calls:

St. John's: 

• Gene Long, MHA for St. John's East, 1986–1989
• Jack Harris, MHA for St. John's East, 1990 (by-election)-1995, Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi 1995-2006
• Lorraine Michael, MHA for Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi, 2006–2015, St. John's East-Quidi Vidi 2015-present
• Dale Kirby, MHA for St. John's North, 2011-2013
• George Murphy, MHA for St. John's East, 2011–2015
• Gerry Rogers, MHA for St. John's Centre, 2011–present

+

Jack Harris MP for St. John's East (1987 by-election-1988, 2008-2015)

We've also had some close elections where we almost won.  Jack Harris federally in 2015.  Comedian Greg Malone federally in St. John's West in 2000.  

Great Northern Peninsula:

• Sam Drover, MHA for White Bay, 1955-1956 CCF (Drover crossed the floor from the Liberals)

• Christopher Mitchelmore, MHA for The Straits-White Bay North, 2011-2013

+ Fonse Faour, MP (1978 by-election-1980) for Humber—St. George's—St. Barbe (whose riding including Corner Brook and the Great Northern Peninsula)

Labrador: 

• Peter Fenwick, MHA for Menihek (Labrador West), 1984–1985, 1985–1989

• Randy Collins MHA for Labrador West, 1999–2007

Randy Collins also had an impressive federal run in 1997.  

Other than one-offs, our support elsewhere in the province is minimal.  These one-offs include Catholic Priest Des McGrath running federally in Random—Burin—St. George's in 2004, and Fraser March almost winning Bonavista—Trinity—Conception in 1997.  Provincially, Julie Mitchell almost won Burin—Placentia West in 2011. 

Some great comments by former NDP MHA George Murphy to the CBC (Dec  2 2015): 

What's his advice for the NDP?

"They're going to have to get back and make sure they're all-inclusive. Don't shut any doors on any people. Don't say no to anybody who wants to sign up. Don't turn anybody away," he said.

"We lost a lot of people to the Liberal party that wanted to come over to the New Democrats. Some of them got elected (Monday) night. Some were asking about running for New Democrats and nothing was ever pursued. So this is a story of lost opportunity too."

Murphy praised the Liberal campaign, and added, "nobody in this world has free licence over love, hope and optimism. It's not just an NDP theme. It's a theme that's held by by everybody, and the Liberals were great at picking up that charge."