NDP leadership race

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terrytowel

kropotkin1951 wrote:

When Jack ran for leadership he was a Professor at Ryerson who had published an excellent work on homelessness and had served as leader of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM, Fédération canadienne des municipalités). As well as the people who had heard of him as an academic many people in municipal politics from across the country knew Jack. Methinks neither the original Joe Who nor the proposed new Joe Who would be the right choice for new leader.

Oh please I liked Jack (because he lived in my riding) but in 2001 if you asked 10 random people (outside of Toronto) to pick him out of a line-up nobody would know who he was. Again you have to think how high his recognition factor was in 2001.

In the summer before the 2015 election writ was dropped, many people still know who the leader of the NDP was!

kropotkin1951

terrytowel wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

When Jack ran for leadership he was a Professor at Ryerson who had published an excellent work on homelessness and had served as leader of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM, Fédération canadienne des municipalités). As well as the people who had heard of him as an academic many people in municipal politics from across the country knew Jack. Methinks neither the original Joe Who nor the proposed new Joe Who would be the right choice for new leader.

Oh please I liked Jack (because he lived in my riding) but in 2001 ) if you asked 10 random people (outside of Toronto to pick him out of a line-up nobody would know who he was. Again you have to think his recognition factor in 2001.

In the summer before the 2015 election writ was dropped, many people still know who the leader of the NDP was!

Sealed  Oh please

R.E.Wood

A pre-established national profile isn't a requirement to run for leadership. 

The new leader will obviously need to be bilingual, though, so that's going to rule some people out. I wasn't aware, as others have said, that Avi Lewis doesn't speak French (or maybe he does?)

 

Debater

Unionist wrote:

Hazen Argue.

That was a different era when Federal leaders could get away with not speaking French.

Times have changed.

R.E.Wood

Does Alistair MacGregor speak French?

 

 

Hunky_Monkey

terrytowel wrote:

And nobody knew Jack Layton outside of Toronto either and led the party to its greatest heights ever.

 

Yes, and in 2004, Layton took the country with 16%.  In 2006, he took us to new heights with 17%.  In 2008, we swept the country with 18% of the vote.  

We got lucky in 2011 with a lot of factors going into the result.  Jack was one.  A very weak Liberal leader another.  Voters in Quebec tired of the Bloc.

If we didn't have the wave in Quebec, we would have won an additional 10 seats in that election.  And as we know, waves in Quebec are precarious.

Regardless who we go with leader, their French has to be up to scratch.  I doubt we'll now keep the 16 seats we have in QC now anyway but we can hope. 

Island Red

Ladies and Gentlemen:

Take a few moments and listen to Ruth Ellen Brosseau:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEgKSm2Bh-I

* Genuine

* Articulate

* Knows what it's like to count the pennies to feed her family

* Bilingual

Mr. Magoo

All day I waited for that shoe to drop.

jjuares

Island Red wrote:

Ladies and Gentlemen:

Take a few moments and listen to Ruth Ellen Brosseau:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEgKSm2Bh-I

* Genuine

* Articulate

* Knows what it's like to count the pennies to feed her family

* Bilingual


I met her this weekend. She is impressive.

Hunky_Monkey

Do you think voters would take a 31 year old MP with a career as an assistant bar manager seriously as a potentional prime minister?  I love Brosseau but I have a feeling voters may not buy her leadership... at this point in time.

Lots of names out there... Guy Caron... Megan Leslie... Peter Julian... Niki Ashton... Nathan Cullen... and probably some not mentioned will run.  Personally, I hope we stick to the path of Layton & Mulcair and not veer far left.

Debater

I think Canada needs a far left party.

It also helps keep the Liberals in check to have a party much farther to the left that can exert progressive pressure.

If the NDP & the Liberals aren't distinct enough, then it's hard for the NDP to pressure the Liberals from the left flank.

Hunky_Monkey

I'm sure you do, Debater... allows for your faux progressive Liberals to more easily maintain power.

Mr. Magoo

Quote:
I think Canada needs a far left party.

Do you believe they don't have one?  Or even two?

Or do you mean an "electable" far-left party?  One that's not just all about its far-left principles, but also somehow enjoys widespread support?

Hunky_Monkey

Jagmeet Singh is being touted as a possible candidate as well.  And Alexandre Boulerice although not sure how sellable he would be outside QC.

R.E.Wood

Why would Alexandre Boulerice not be sellable outside of QC?

 

Hunky_Monkey

Past ties to sovereignty.  Ties to QS which is a sovereignist party.  Is it right?  No.  But a reality?  Yes.  

R.E.Wood

The media (well... the National Post) is offering up suggestions:

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/eight-possibl...

Many of which we've already mentioned. A couple of which I think, "Oh, no way!"

terrytowel

Megan Leslie has told Dan Legar she is taking a decade sabattical from politics. Both Nathan Cullen & Avi Lewis were adamant on Question Period today that they will NOT be running for leader.

Island Red

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Do you think voters would take a 31 year old MP with a career as an assistant bar manager seriously as a potentional prime minister? 

Actually, yes. There are millions of people toiling in low wage service jobs, finding it tough to survive in an economy that has forgotten they exist.

The NDP could do with electing a leader whose roots are 21st century working class - as long as that person is articulate in both official languages and can connect with voters.

We need to change gears and get back to the party's roots. REB may be just what the party needs, and yeah Canadians want to see people who they can relate to on issues that affect them.

R.E.Wood

Nathan Cullen was too tied to Mulcair, and a centrist/Liberal approach unsuited to the mood of the times, and would have been dragged down by that in a leadership contest anyway. As much as I think he's a great politician and a great person, he is not the right leader for this time. It's good he recognizes that.

Hunky_Monkey

Island Red wrote:

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Do you think voters would take a 31 year old MP with a career as an assistant bar manager seriously as a potentional prime minister? 

Actually, yes. There are millions of people toiling in low wage service jobs, finding it tough to survive in an economy that has forgotten they exist.

The NDP could do with electing a leader whose roots are 21st century working class - as long as that person is articulate in both official languages and can connect with voters.

We need to change gears and get back to the party's roots. REB may be just what the party needs, and yeah Canadians want to see people who they can relate to on issues that affect them.

Most voters don't vote for "themselves" in that manner, sorry.

And yes, maybe the NDP should have championed at $15/hour minimum wage.  Although a provincial jurisdiction, it could have helped federally regulated workers and been an example for the provinces.  Oh, wait...

Maybe we should have proposed a national childcare program that would have helped working people with their childcare needs.  Oh, wait...

Think you get my point. 

Island Red

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Think you get my point. 

Please don't presume to believe that I (or anybody else would) "get your point."

Mr. Magoo

Quote:
The NDP could do with electing a leader whose roots are 21st century working class - as long as that person is articulate in both official languages and can connect with voters.

So those are those the three criteria?

1.  working class

2.  can speak two languages

3.  "connects" with voters

I should say here that I'm increasingly uncomfortable having to criticize REB. because I really do like her.  Her first win was very good, and her second win was great. 

But I can't just pretend that now is her time.

And some part of my discomfort comes from the belief that she's not actually seeking this role.

Hunky_Monkey

Island Red wrote:

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Think you get my point. 

Please don't presume to believe that I (or anybody else would) "get your point."

 

It's like the delegate saying on CPAC that it was too bad Mulcair didn't champion things like a $15/hour minimum wage, or childcare, or pharmacare... 

What frigging world do some people live on?!?!?!

R.E.Wood
R.E.Wood
Pondering

Not Nathan Cullen because of what he expresses here:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/07/mulcair-leadership-vote-ndp-conv...

He should go ahead and join the Liberal party.

The party does not need to "go left" it needs to go 99%. Just genuinely represent the interests of the 99%. Unite Canadians behind a single vision of what Canada could look like and how we would get there. It is very much what the Leap Manifesto presents only a stripped down pragmatic version.

A political party aims to win every election but probabilities suggest that Trudeau will get a second run. So, keep the long game in mind and consider what Canada and the world will be like in 7 to 8 years from now. As I understand the science it takes years for the carbon we burn to impact the climate and we haven't slowed down yet so for the foreseeable future the impact of climate change is going to increase exponentially even as we reduce our current use which hasn't happened yet. Even if basic income is introduced by the liberals that will not fix income inequality. The economy is entrenching it. If we are going to have a service economy then services have to pay what unionized factory jobs used to pay.

It isn't about left or right for voters. It's about what makes sense to them.

Cody87

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Island Red wrote:

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Think you get my point. 

Please don't presume to believe that I (or anybody else would) "get your point."

 

It's like the delegate saying on CPAC that it was too bad Mulcair didn't champion things like a $15/hour minimum wage, or childcare, or pharmacare... 

What frigging world do some people live on?!?!?!

I'll answer this as simply as I can.

There is a difference between promising something, and championing it.

Mulcair promised affordable, national childcare (by the end of his second majority mandate, and assuming the provinces agree to pay for almost half the cost).

Mulcair promised a $15 minimum wage (and if you read the fine print, he'll admit it's only for federal jurisdiction workers - most of whom already make that much or more - but hopefully the provinces will follow suit)

Mulcair championed balanced budgets (now and every year of his mandate, come hell or high water).

Without debating the merits or lack thereof of any of these policies, I'll simply say that it was obvious to anyone who was paying attention where Mulcair's heart was.

ETA: For the record, I agree that a R.E.B. candidacy would be a non-starter at this time. But especially the child care promise couldn't have been sold worse if Mulcair had been trying to. It is not by any stretch of the imagination proof that Canadians wouldn't welcome that sort of policy, properly positioned.

Pondering

The right person can be polished and groomed. Trudeau definitely worked to get rid of that verbal tic of constantly saying uhhhh sometimes twice in one sentence.  For grooming all he needed was a hair cut. Mulcair needed to get a bit more ungroomed, dress more casually but that is water under the bridge.

I think Niki Ashton is really special. She has an impressive resume for a 33 year old. 37 would still be very young to be elected PM but for the next election she would be 41 and Trudeau won't be very old but will look old next to Ashton.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niki_Ashton

Niki Ashton is articulate and has a strong education. With 3 years to groom before 2019 and another 4 after that if need be would be plenty of time for her to make a name for herself and deal with any rough edges.

R.E.Wood

When asked if they would run for the leadership, Matthew Dubé answered "No." But Don Davies said "Never say never."

(Sorry I posted about this in the Leadership Review thread by accident - thought we were in this thread. Pondering posted this link:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2630063/ndp-mps-react-to-vote-ousting-tom-mulc... )

I absolutely agree about Niki Ashton - she's an extremely strong contender... this might be her time.

 

R.E.Wood
Left Turn Left Turn's picture

R.E.Wood wrote:

Why would Alexandre Boulerice not be sellable outside of QC?

I watched him speak on CPAC yesterday, and his English came across to me as potentially not sellable outside of Quebec. Though since he is further left than a lot of other potential candidates (which fits with my inclination), whether I would support him for leader would depend on who the other candidates are.

Now I know that some people might be thinking that Jean Chrétien won 3 majority governments with his heavily accented English; but I would point out to such folks that Chrétien did not have Justin Trudeau as an opponent.

R.E.Wood

And (ICK) Brian Topp isn't ruling it out:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/10/thomas-mulcair-ndp-convention-de...

Quote:

Notley's chief of staff Brian Topp told HuffPost he wasn't sure what had happened at the convention and that he had never seen anything like it in his nearly three decades with the party. Topp, a close friend and adviser to Layton ran against Mulcair for the leadership in 2012 and finished second.

Sunday, he didn't flatly rule out a future run.

"This job [NDP leader] is going to be four to eight years of 200 days a year on the road rebuilding the party, and then you are just starting. After you've won, you're prime minister. You're in for hopefully two terms, that's another eight years. So whoever decides to run is signing up for a 16 to 20 year job, I would have to think very carefully before doing that again," Topp said.

 

Hunky_Monkey

Cody87 wrote:

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Island Red wrote:

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Think you get my point. 

Please don't presume to believe that I (or anybody else would) "get your point."

 

It's like the delegate saying on CPAC that it was too bad Mulcair didn't champion things like a $15/hour minimum wage, or childcare, or pharmacare... 

What frigging world do some people live on?!?!?!

I'll answer this as simply as I can.

There is a difference between promising something, and championing it.

Mulcair promised affordable, national childcare (by the end of his second majority mandate, and assuming the provinces agree to pay for almost half the cost).

Mulcair promised a $15 minimum wage (and if you read the fine print, he'll admit it's only for federal jurisdiction workers - most of whom already make that much or more - but hopefully the provinces will follow suit)

Mulcair championed balanced budgets (now and every year of his mandate, come hell or high water).

Without debating the merits or lack thereof of any of these policies, I'll simply say that it was obvious to anyone who was paying attention where Mulcair's heart was.

ETA: For the record, I agree that a R.E.B. candidacy would be a non-starter at this time. But especially the child care promise couldn't have been sold worse if Mulcair had been trying to. It is not by any stretch of the imagination proof that Canadians wouldn't welcome that sort of policy, properly positioned.

 

Couple points.  It took Tommy Douglas how long to introduce medicare?  And actually, he left it to his successor to get it done.  Fact remains, it was the central platform plank of the campaign.  Far more progressive than Jack's "Ottawa is broken" and "We'll hire more doctors".

We have federal and provincial jurisdictions.  I assume you're aware of that?  The $15/hour minimum wage was in the realm of what the federal government can do. We can't tell provinces to pass $15/hour min wages. Personally, I thought it was the wrong platform plank to run on since it over covered a small number of workers.  However, to say he didn't champion that is just plain silly.

I think people have a distorted view of what actually happened in the election and what we stood for.  And on a related note, as mentioned above, the Mulcair platform and issues were more to the left than Layton's in 2011.  Apparently, Jack was more cool than Tom so he came off as more left wing?  Just like Trudeau, apparently...

Hunky_Monkey

R.E.Wood wrote:

I absolutely agree about Niki Ashton - she's an extremely strong contender... this might be her time.

Find it a little odd that a Canadian politician would head to different country and help a presidential candidate.  Also find her very robotic. Maybe one reason she finished last in 2012.  And does anyone believe she voted for Tom today?  I don't.  Says she did.  But I digress.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Pondering wrote:

I think Niki Ashton is really special. She has an impressive resume for a 33 year old. 37 would still be very young to be elected PM but for the next election she would be 41 and Trudeau won't be very old but will look old next to Ashton.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niki_Ashton

Niki Ashton is articulate and has a strong education. With 3 years to groom before 2019 and another 4 after that if need be would be plenty of time for her to make a name for herself and deal with any rough edges.

I voted for Niki Ashton in the last leadership race, and I'll probably vote for her in this leadership race if she runs again.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

terrytowel wrote:

Megan Leslie has told Dan Legar she is taking a decade sabattical from politics. Both Nathan Cullen & Avi Lewis were adamant on Question Period today that they will NOT be running for leader.

This leadership race will only serve to make Megan Leslie's loss in the 2015 election that much more heartbreaking.Cry

Both Avi Lewis and Naomi Klein have been on the record for a while as saying they don't want to be NDP leader.

Nathan Cullen not running for NDP leader makes me quite happy, as I don't want a younger version of Mulcair as the leader.

Debater

Left Turn wrote:

R.E.Wood wrote:

Why would Alexandre Boulerice not be sellable outside of QC?

I watched him speak on CPAC yesterday, and his English came across to me as potentially not sellable outside of Quebec. Though since he is further left than a lot of other potential candidates (which fits with my inclination), whether I would support him for leader would depend on who the other candidates are.

Now I know that some people might be thinking that Jean Chrétien won 3 majority governments with his heavily accented English; but I would point out to such folks that Chrétien did not have Justin Trudeau as an opponent.

You're right.

Chrétien had some good luck that came his way.

He was a skilled politician and had a down to earth charm from growing up in small town Québec, but he benefitted from a divided right-wing and an NDP that was demolished in 1993.  So he didn't really face major threats from the left or the right to the extent that today's leaders do.

Chrétien's issues with English grammar and tendency to make amusing gaffes may even have helped him since it made him appear more authentic and not overly-polished like other politicians.

I agree with you that not all leaders in Canada could resonate as well as Chrétien while having a heavy French accent (eg. Stéphane Dion's English language challenges hurt him).

Pondering

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

R.E.Wood wrote:

I absolutely agree about Niki Ashton - she's an extremely strong contender... this might be her time.

Find it a little odd that a Canadian politician would head to different country and help a presidential candidate.  Also find her very robotic. Maybe one reason she finished last in 2012.  And does anyone believe she voted for Tom today?  I don't.  Says she did.  But I digress.

She's 33 now, in 2012 she must have been 30, incredibly young to be running for the leadership. That she was on the list at all is a huge accomplishment.

As I already noted, Trudeau was no where near as ready when he won't the leadership of the party. During his wait for the election he laid low and got speech training and plenty of practice debating. At the first debate which pundits say he won he gave a speech instead of answering the question early on. His answer didn't just drift it was completely off topic.

Trudeau beat Harper being nothing like Harper. It's like rock paper scissors. Any "type" can win. You have to think about what people will be tired of with Trudeau. I think the people predicting that if the NDP gets more progressive they can't win are completely wrong. I think it is the only way to win and it doesn't mean becoming raging leftists.

People are hungry for authenticity and that is only going to increase. I think Mulcair could have won this leadership test with a better speech. To gain the confidence of the party going forward he would have had to acknowledge the split and the Leap Manifesto. He didn't have to declare himself for or against but he needed to give some indication that he valued the principles and vision if not the details. He had to acknowledge the tension between Alberta and the rest of Canada on the oilsands and just said the answers won't be easy. That's being authentic. Mulcair's support of Israel, very authentic, of Palestinians, not so much. Bottomline Mulcair could not be an authentic leader of the NDP because he's a Liberal.

I don't know about a lot of the contenders so I am not saying that Ashton doesn't or won't have any competition but she has a lot of strengths one of which is being a young woman with an understated attractiveness. I recently saw a report on how women are perceived on tinder based on make-up. It was not a statistically significant test because it was small and informal. The same women went on with lots of make-up, little make-up and no make-up. The no make up women recieved messages using friendship type works, the some make-up got date type messages, the ones with heavy make up got sexy messages. If Ashton wears any make-up it's very natural. Definitely friend type which is perfect. It will make nasty attacks harder.

Ashton is obviously very intelligent and has self-discipline so she will know policy inside out. It would be a long shot to become PM at only 37, but the NDP winning in 19 is an incredibly long shot at best. The NDP will need someone out of the box so she's as good a bet as any. Thinking longer term, giving her two election cycles as leader, she could definitely be a formidable opponent to a damaged Trudeau track record. The pipeline issue is sure to drag on and on and on.

Trudeau says it is the job of the PM to get our resources to market including oil. I'd say the PM has a greater responsibility to hand over a secure country both environmentally and economically. Encouraging the oil industry to expand exponentially is the same as trying to help carriage makers and black smiths after the introduction of the car by boosting their output. Over the next 4-8 years that will only become increasingly apparent. Alberta oil was only competitive at high prices that are not coming back.

Green technologies can't be held back any longer. That will develop exponentially. Electrical grids are being put into place for cars. They are way better on a multitude of levels. The brown and eventually black snow of Montreal would be gone with electric cars. Car exhaust is filthy. The air would improve dramatically. the yellow cloud over the city would disappear.

When people weren't switching over to digital fast enough the government forced it as they are also doing with lightbulbs. The argument is that prices then go down due to mass production. Legislate all cars be at least hybrid if not fully electric (Quebec licences) and the price of electric cars would drop dramatically. There would be a very significant reduction in health care costs.

The Leap Manifesto is not unrealistic. It's doable while maintaining a strong economy, flourishing even while making our lives much more pleasant.

The people saying that the NDP has got to go back to representing the blue collar working class have it wrong. The working class includes many white collar workers now but even that is too narrow a description of who the NDP should be representing. Unite the 99%.

josh

R.E.Wood wrote:

More media speculation:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2629931/who-will-replace-tom-mulcair-as-ndp-le...


Julian may have hurt himself in some quarters with his unswerving support of Mulcair. If nothing else, he would be a good interim leader. Davies could be good. Hope Cullen sticks to his guns. Topp? Been there, done that. Although he could be a compromise choice.

josh

I think you're thinking of Cleary.

Ken Burch

You're right.  Will delete.

Ken Burch

(self-delete)

lagatta

As for French, Brosseau's father is francophone, and she spoke it as a small child. Her French was rusty, limited pretty much to "une bière, SVP" at the U of O pub, but it was much easier for her to become fluent than someone without that early-childhood imprinting.

Naomi Klein, who is NOT seeking the nomination or identification with the NDP as her identity, does speak French, but her French is shamefully shitty for someone who comes from Montréal.

Boulerice could easily improve his spoken English with intensive study. He isn't painfully shy as Stéphane Dion seems to be (I'm sure that Dion plays an important role in the Trudeau government) and doesn't have either the speech impediment or the cultural shortcomings of Chrétien. The main problem he'd have is finding the time, between politics and his young family. He is about the same age as Trudeau; a year younger, I think.

terrytowel

I think someone from rabble called into CPAC yesterday. The topic was who Tom Mulcair and the last caller said REB would be the perfect candidate and went on and on and on about her.

When the video is uploaded on CPAC I'll post it here so you can listen to it for yourself.

NorthReport

How is Don Davies' French?

R.E.Wood

I don't think Boulerice would have a problem because of his accent, specifically. I find his English perfectly fine. He also comes across as very genuine and likeable, which is essential (we don't need another aloof leader like Mulcair). But as Hunky_Monkey posted (quoted below), his sovereignty ties would doom him in the ROC.

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Past ties to sovereignty.  Ties to QS which is a sovereignist party.  Is it right?  No.  But a reality?  Yes.  

josh

Not if he can convince enough people that he's had a change of heart.

NorthReport

Don Davies may be the dark horse in this race.

R.E.Wood

Perhaps, Josh, you could be right. Boulerice is very charismatic and believeable when he speaks - he could be convincing and make people trust him. If he decides to run I'd give serious consideration to supporting him, depending on who the other options turn out to be.

Yes, NR, I'd also like to know if Don Davies speaks French. 

 

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