Three Ontario by-elections are expected in the next 6 month.
In Scarborough Rouge River, all major parties have selected candidates. Not long ago, Ottawa-Vanier MPP stepped down as Attorney General and will resign her seat. And just a few days ago York West MPP and Seniors' Affairs minister Mario Sergio said he would relinquish his post immediately and resign his seat in the next three months.
As reference points, here are the vote breakdowns from each of those ridings for the last Ontario election:
(source: Wikipedia)
Scarborough- Rouge River:
Party
Candidate Votes % ∆%
Liberal Bas Balkissoon 16,095 38.71
New Democratic Neethan Shan 13,019 31.31
Progressive Conservative Raymond Cho 11,500 27.66
Green George B. Singh 571 1.37
None of the Above Amir Khan 398 0.96
Ottawa-Vanier
Liberal
Madeleine Meilleur 21,945 55.65
Progressive Conservative Martin Forget 8,799 22.31
New Democratic Hervé Ngamby 5,216 13.23
Green Dave Bagler 3,147 7.98
Libertarian Phillip Richard 330 .84
York West
Liberal
Mario Sergio 11,867 46.63
New Democratic Tom Rakocevic 10,007 39.32
Progressive Conservative Karlene Nation 2,778 10.92
Green Keith Jarrett 418 1.64
Freedom Kayla Baptiste 267 1.05
Independent Wally Schwass 113 .44
From these numbers, we can draw two prelminary conclusions:
1) The ONDP has the potential to take Scarborough-Rouge River and York West, if they can find good candidates and craft a compelling message for the byelection campaigns:
2) VERY few people will vote for you if your name is "Wally Schwass".
Thanks for posting, Ken.
York West is an interesting case. It is one of the few Toronto ridings where Horwath's bread and butter populist platform connected with voters. Rakocevic performed even better than Ferreira in York South-Weston, which was considered a much more likely pick-up.
The ONDP ran an excellent candidate in Ottawa Vanier in the last federal election - Emilie Taman, a lawyer and daughter of former Supreme Court Justice Louise Arbour. Unfortunately trends were not in the party's favor and the Liberals took the riding by a landslide but she at least finished in second. Any chance she would take a shot at the provincial seat?
One reason behind York West's strong NDP showing could be that the two local city councillors, Anthony Peruzza and Maria Augimeri, both have NDP ties, and with that, lists of supporters and volunteers. The former less so - Peruzza was an NDP MPP during the Rae years, but he's a bit wishy washy on council. Augimeri is one of the few progressive voice among the suburban members.
Actually, the component wards of York West are represented by Perruzza and *Giorgio Mammoliti*--ironically both Rae landslide NDP one-termers; but Mammoliti's *really* shifted away from old allegiances. (Augimeri's in York Centre.)
Augimeri's husband was an ndp mpp for close to 10 years before losing to I think liberal Joe Cordiano. While some of the citycouncillors have good lists etc toronto city council being what it is you see right center and left voting for Peruzza and Augimeri simply because of the 95% plus incumbant being re-elected. The real issue for the next prov by-election in that neck of the woods will be the strength that the federal parties maintained after 2014 and can use today
The ONDP ran an excellent candidate in Ottawa Vanier in the last federal election - Emilie Taman, a lawyer and daughter of former Supreme Court Justice Louise Arbour. Unfortunately trends were not in the party's favor and the Liberals took the riding by a landslide but she at least finished in second. Any chance she would take a shot at the provincial seat?
Keep in mind that as much as i hate to raise this - there will also be a federal byelection in the near future in Ottawa-Vanier. The incumbent MP Mauril Belanger has ALS and by all accounts is deterioratihng very rapidly.
Longtime Ontario NDP MPP Gilles Bisson's older brother. Claude Bisson, got the nomination for the ONDP in Ottawa-Vanier by-election.
Has their been any speculation about why Bas Balkissoon stepped down so suddenly, and why Wynne has stayed quiet?
You can add another by-election to the list. Earlier in the week Tim Hudak announced he'll step down which will make for a by-election in Niagara West-Glanbrook.
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/08/09/tim-hudak-quitting-pr...
Last minute gambit to juice turnout among the PC base in Scarborough Rouge River?
[url=http://www.torontosun.com/2016/08/26/pc-leader-patrick-brown-targets-sex... leader Patrick Brown targets sex ed curriculum (Sun)[/url]
Patrick Brown says promise to scrap Liberal sex-ed curriculum was a 'mistake'
Progressive Conservative leader reverses course on Ontario government's new sex-ed syllabus
Aug 29, 2016
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/patrick-brown-sex-ed-mistake-1.374...
Whoops, what was that about? Somebody should get fired.
I think it's a very smart move by Brown. The religious right are not strong enough to win elections in Ontario, and Brown has shown that he realizes that. He seems to understand that the Liberals are weak enough for him to defeat them, but only if the voters don't regard him as a right wing kook. So, he is willing to throw those who were largely responsible for him winning the leadership under the bus, as an operational necessity. Moves like this could make him Premier in 2018.
Yes but Brown had already made that strategic decision months ago. Then all of a sudden he sends out a letter promising to repeal the new curriculum and seemingly shifting back to the right. Presumably to court socially conservative opinion in the Scarborough Rouge River riding during an important byelection. If he didn't think that letter would get publicized he is stupid.
I didn't know that he had announced earlier that he wouldn't be changing the new sex ed curriculum. That puts a different light on the situation.
By changing his mind back & forth, he risks offending both groups -- the social conservatives & the ordinary voters.
Evangelical leader Charles McVety is angry with Brown and called this move “deceitful”.
And even Tim Hudak says Brown risks looking "opportunistic" to voters by saying one thing for the by-election and another after that.
https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/08/30/patrick-brown-doing-d...
Yeah. It was a dumb move on his part. Similar to Hudak promising (if I remember correctly) to undo the Rand formula, which he then retracted from. Hudak suffered after that, and no doubt so too will Brown.
Reevely: Patrick Brown finds a way to make his sex-education mess worse
August 30, 2016
In just three days, Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown upset the progressive wing of his party and infuriated the conservative wing, razed his reputation for competence, and very possibly threw away a byelection win.
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/reevely-patrick-brown-finds-a-w...
[url=http://www.cp24.com/news/tory-and-liberal-candidates-in-close-race-in-sc... Tory and Liberal candidates in close race in Scarborough-Rouge River[/url]
The Liberals and Tories are in a virtual tie with one day to go until residents cast their ballots in the Scarborough-Rouge River byelection, two separate polls have found.Forum Research and Mainstreet asked potential voters who they plan to support in Thursday’s byelection and both polls revealed a particularly close race in the hotly-contested riding.
The Mainstreet poll of 578 eligible voters found that 35 per cent of respondents intend to vote for PC candidate Raymond Cho while 30 per cent say they will vote for Liberal candidate Piragal Thiru and 15 per cent say they will vote for NDP candidate Neethan Shan. The margin of error in the poll is 4.08 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, meaning Cho and Thiru are very close to being in a statistical tie.
The Forum Research poll was even closer. That poll of 363 eligible voters found that Cho and Thiru both have the support of 36 per cent of respondents while Shan is a distant third with the support of 23 per cent of respondents.
So it looks like the PC's have a chance in the Scarborough-Rouge River by-election afterall.
It's the old dilemma for NDP voters -- do you vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives?
Disappointing to see Shan polling so low, especially compared to his support in 2014, where he received 31%
Fortunately, given the ethnocultural makeup of the riding, I don't suspect there will be much last minute NDP spillover to the Liberal camp. I find the "Anyone but Conservative" NDPer-turned-Grit trend is usually isolated to urban, downtown ridings, and to a lesser extent, communities with high union rates.
I think you're correct about that, ctrl190.
But is that a good thing?
That might end up benefiting the PC's.
The ONDP ran an excellent candidate in Ottawa Vanier in the last federal election - Emilie Taman, a lawyer and daughter of former Supreme Court Justice Louise Arbour. Unfortunately trends were not in the party's favor and the Liberals took the riding by a landslide but she at least finished in second. Any chance she would take a shot at the provincial seat?
I don't wish to speak for Mme Taman, but the federal riding is now vacant after Mauril Bélanger's recent death, so she may wish to bide her time. I suspect Mathieu Fleury, a very well respected councillor, will run for Bélanger's seat.
Yes, Mathieu Fleury is one of several names being mentioned who may run for Bélanger's seat.
This recent article mentions some other names that are being discreetly mentioned in Liberal circles:
http://www.lapresse.ca/le-droit/politique/politique-federale/201608/22/0...
Disappointing to see Shan polling so low, especially compared to his support in 2014, where he received 31%
Fortunately, given the ethnocultural makeup of the riding, I don't suspect there will be much last minute NDP spillover to the Liberal camp. I find the "Anyone but Conservative" NDPer-turned-Grit trend is usually isolated to urban, downtown ridings, and to a lesser extent, communities with high union rates.
For the record, federally speaking, Rathika in Scarborough North was 2nd place in the advance + special polls in 2015 with 25-26% of the vote; she finished in third with 22%.
By-election Results for Scarborough—Rouge River
Available after 9 P.M. :
Polling hours extended for Poll 19 in the Scarborough—Rouge River by-election to 9:30 P.M. (Eastern Standard Time).
https://www3.elections.on.ca/RealTimeResults/ElectoralDistrict/en
3 polls reporting out of 234 polls
LIB 34.48 %
NDP 33.33 %
PC 24.14 %
8 polls out of 234
PC 39.61 %
LIB 29.34 %
NDP 25.43 %
16 polls out of 234
PC 42.47 %
LIB 29.10 %
NDP 21.18 %
25 polls out of 234
PC 40.58 %
LIB 28.28 %
NDP 25.25 %
34 polls out of 234
PC 39.12 %
LIB 29.88 %
NDP 26.14 %
41 polls out of 234
PC 39.51 %
LIB 29.27 %
NDP 26.51 %
53 polls out of 234
PC 37.15 %
LIB 31.01 %
NDP 27.59 %
56 polls out of 234
PC 36.56 %
LIB 30.90 %
NDP 28.15 %
66 polls out of 234
PC 37.77 %
LIB 31.24 %
NDP 26.53 %
75 polls out of 234
PC 38.23 % (751 vote lead)
LIB 30.67 %
NDP 26.45 %
91 polls out of 234
PC 38.27 % (924 vote lead)
LIB 30.17 %
NDP 26.95 %
115 polls out of 234
PC 39.35 % (1,295 vote lead)
LIB 29.95 %
NDP 25.83 %
Looks like Raymond Cho and the PCs have grabbed this one from the Libs. With turnout around 16%, yikes.
Any idea why the NDP seems to have been unable to pull a bigger proportion of its core vote there? August by-elections are won or lost with organization.
Anyhow, nice as always to see John Turmel back in the electoral fray, this time representing the Pauper Party of Ontario. Their killer slogan: "we want no cops in gambling, sex or drugs or rock and roll, we want no usury on loans, pay cash or time, no dole." Twelve votes so far, but still a 100+polls yet to count. This could be his night.
138 polls out of 234
PC 38.97 % (1,526 vote lead)
LIB 29.36 %
NDP 27.03 %
I agree, sherpa-finn.
The PC's picked a good candidate in Raymond Cho. He has high name-recognition as a councillor and already has an organization.
I'm surprised that Wynne didn't push for a higher-profile Liberal candidate. (Maybe the Liberals now wish they had chosen Rathika afterall?)
157 polls out of 234
PC 39.50 % (1,795 vote lead)
LIB 29.23 %
NDP 26.57 %
The PC's picked a good candidate in Raymond Cho. He has high name-recognition as a councillor and already has an organization.
I remember Cho from when he was a New Democrat, back in the 1980s. He seems to have migrated rightward over the years, - then a Liberal (and Independent Liberal) and now a PC. Wonder if that same organization/following migrated along with him, over the years.
* Double post *
171 polls out of 234
PC 39.45 % (1,925 vote lead)
LIB 29.24 %
NDP 26.53 %
Yes, Cho is an unusual candidate.
He's also 80 years old now, which is an unusual age to run for Parliament for the first time!
I agree, sherpa-finn.
The PC's picked a good candidate in Raymond Cho. He has high name-recognition as a councillor and already has an organization.
200 polls out of 234
PC 39.28 % (2,201 vote lead)
LIB 29.21 %
NDP 26.91 %
