US Election 2016 Polling - started Feb 16, 2016
How low can Trump go in the polls?
New surveys suggest the GOP nominee is perilously close to a historic rebuke.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-polling-229916
1539
I'll just leave these here:
https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/8587
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democ...
When every indicator except the corporate polls shows Trump winning by a blowout, it might be time to question whether or not the polls you see reflect reality or not.
Is the Democratic campaign acting like a campaign leading by double digits? Is attendance at Trump rallies up or down? Which candidate has a stronger social media presence?
If you believe the guy who said Trump has a 2% chance to win the Republican nomination when he says Trump has only a 10% chance to win the general, amidst increasingly damaging (for Clinton) leaks/releases from not only wikileaks but now also the fbi and project veritas, then you are a fool.
You are being lied to.
Oh, I forgot to warn you. CNN claims it is illegal for private citizens (but not the media) to access/"possess" wikileaks as they were obtained by illegal means. Follow that link above at your own risk.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_X16_KzX1vE
Like I said, you are being lied to.
When every indicator except the corporate polls shows Trump winning by a blowout, it might be time to question whether or not the polls you see reflect reality or not.
Is the Democratic campaign acting like a campaign leading by double digits? Is attendance at Trump rallies up or down? Which candidate has a stronger social media presence?
If you believe the guy who said Trump has a 2% chance to win the Republican nomination when he says Trump has only a 10% chance to win the general, amidst increasingly damaging (for Clinton) leaks/releases from not only wikileaks but now also the fbi and project veritas, then you are a fool.
You are being lied to.
It will be interesting reviewing these kinds of posts on November 8th to determine who the fools are.
If Trump was really leading in the polls, he wouldn't be crying about rigged elections. Only a fool is unable to see that.
Some babblers may recall that 4 years ago, the same right wing media outlets were pushing a theory that Romney was actually ahead, even though the polls showed him 6 or 8 percent behind Obama. The wingnuts insisted that all the polls were "skewed", and they went on to publish their own "unskewed" versions, which showed Romney leading. Unfortunately for them, it was their own ideas that turned out to be skewed when the ballots were counted.
Bingo!
Having a political horse race is good for the TV ratings
By all accounts Clinton should blow the Chump out of the water
If she doesn't crush him it would be a surprise
Synch And Swim: Quantifying The Coattail Effect
Should Clinton Play For An Electoral College Landslide?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/should-clinton-play-for-an-electoral...
Some babblers may recall that 4 years ago, the same right wing media outlets were pushing a theory that Romney was actually ahead, even though the polls showed him 6 or 8 percent behind Obama. The wingnuts insisted that all the polls were "skewed", and they went on to publish their own "unskewed" versions, which showed Romney leading. Unfortunately for them, it was their own ideas that turned out to be skewed when the ballots were counted.
There is a huge debate about this in right-leaning circles that has been going on for months. Those who were fooled in 2012 refuse to be fooled again (by those who say the polls are wrong), while the newer players (typically) point out that Trump is not Romney and that there are many differences in other indicators and factors this year (primary turnout, rally size, insider vs outsider,etc).
I'm not certain the polls are wrong, but I do consider them at least questionable and my previous post is intended just as a caution that even if the insiders know the polls are off (by 20 points!!) that they will not tell the public.
I really like polls that ask how many people voted Obama in 2012. That makes it easier to determine how representative the sample is, though it does nothing to capture the first time and returning voters that will show up mostly for Trump.
http://www.wingia.com/web/files/richeditor/filemanager/WINGIA_Global_Pol...
A global poll conducted by a network of leading pollsters reveals that the American Presidential Election is arousing widespread engagement across the world, where a vast majority is keen to tell pollsters their favourite between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The poll carried out among 45 countries, covering nearly 75% of world population shows that Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump in all but one country, Russia. She is remarkably popular in Western Europe, Latin America and Africa. Donald Trump is popular in Russia and China.
And Canada.
And Canada.
This reads as if it is stating that Trump is popular in Canada. The poll actually shows HRC leading Trump in Canada 69% to 12%.
Yesterday a poll showed Clinton leading the Chump by 7% in Nevada.
Today Clinton is leading the Chump in, of all places, Arizona, by 5%
Poll: Clinton beating Trump by 5 in Arizona
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/poll-arizona-clinton-beating-trump...
Did Sam Wang call this or what, eh!
It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue; Debate #3October 19th, 2016, 8:02pm by Sam Wang
If you don’t believe me…yesterday, PaddyPower paid out its Clinton-to-win bets.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/19/its-all-over-now-baby-blue-deba...
If you want sizzle watch CNN or read Nate Silver. If you want the steak follow Sam Wang.
The predictive value of GOP Presidential polls
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/01/05/what-december-polls-can-tell-us...
Sweet! 
The spread is getting up there. Could Clinton double Trump's Electoral College count? Just askin'
EC: 330 vs 208
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/26/politics-polls-17-all-the-way/
1,686
Let's Rock & Roll! 
With 19 Days to Go, Clinton’s Lead Is Bigger Than EverArizona leans HRC; McMullin rises in the west; dark red states take on lighter hue
The mist is lifting from the map of the United States and the moment of clarity for the 2016 general election campaign has arrived. Yes, there is still uncertainty about some states in the Electoral College. But nearly all of it comes in states that Mitt Romney won in 2012 or a couple of Barack Obama states that Hillary Clinton doesn’t need to win.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/with-19-days-to-go...
Ever the constructive comments.
Why did the polls seem so variable this week?
I view PEC as a tool for directing your positive energies to make a difference. Instead of staring at polling sites all the time at the Presidential race, which is basically decided, I have a better idea: work on races where we genuinely don’t know what will happen. Senate control is totally up in the air.There is Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania…so much to do. Donate your time and money to the side that you favor. Or, use the Competitive House Race Finder in the left sidebar.
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/27/why-do-the-polls-seem-so-variab...
1,699
Clinton just went up in the polls.
How can that be?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_electi...
Cody
You might want to hedge your bets, eh!
Clinton lead over Trump virtually unchanged despite FBI news, poll says
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/31/clinton-lead-over-trump-virtually-unchang...
Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-foreca...
I think the Democrats are behind all the race tightening hype going on. With the Dem's so far ahead in the polls, there was complacency with the voters to the extent that they may not have gone out to vote. With a tight race and a sense of urgency that the Republicans could take the election, the Democrats are now rallying to get their vote out, and they have the ground game to do it. The winds are starting to shift back to the Democrats. Go Hillary!!!
You might be right. Trump supporters were super excited until Wednesday night but since then most of them have been really bummed out. Maybe they can sense it too.
Oh, my!
Quite the stats at the top of the page just released at 5 PM today.
Beyoncé and Me
Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html
...anyone who takes these polls seriously cannot be taken seriously
...anyone who takes these polls seriously cannot be taken seriously
Really?
Because I've heard elsewhere that if Trump's victories and losses aren't consistent with his polling, that will be undeniable evidence that that the election was rigged just as he said.
...anyone who takes these polls seriously cannot be taken seriouslyReally?
Because I've heard elsewhere that if Trump's victories and losses aren't consistent with his polling, that will be undeniable evidence that that the election was rigged just as he said.
That's not what I said and you know it. I said if Trump unexpectedly wins blue paper ballot states (as well as red ones, as expected) but unexpectedly loses red electronic states, then that will be seen as an indication of election fraud.
There is no other plausible explanation for Trump winning NY and NJ (and other similar blue paper ballot states) but losing Texas (and other red electronic no paper trail states).
That's not what I said and you know it. I said if Trump unexpectedly wins blue paper ballot states (as well as red ones, as expected) but unexpectedly loses red electronic states, then that will be seen as an indication of election fraud.
That's pretty much exactly what I said, Cody.
There is a difference between results being inconsistent with polls and results being inconsistent with firmly established historical trends.
If next election Alberta goes Liberal and Newfoundland goes Conservative, and Alberta has paperless electronic voting by machines tied to the Liberals, that would raise more than a few eyebrows regardless of what the polling says.
From a voter fraud perspective, it's fine if everywhere goes Liberal or everywhere goes Conservative (not suspicious, everywhere trends the same way), but if areas trend more predictably based on how the votes are counted than historical patterns that suggests fraud.
If next election Alberta goes Liberal and Newfoundland goes Conservative, and Alberta has paperless electronic voting by machines tied to the Liberals, that would raise more than a few eyebrows regardless of what the polling says.
Are you saying that you have more than a few eyebrows?
Worthy of the great Groucho.If next election Alberta goes Liberal and Newfoundland goes Conservative, and Alberta has paperless electronic voting by machines tied to the Liberals, that would raise more than a few eyebrows regardless of what the polling says.Are you saying that you have more than a few eyebrows?
And Animal from the Muppets has only one eyebrow. We must be inclusive of our purple furry friends!
!!!