Trump the Chump's Day of Reckoning is rapidly approaching
You can fool some of the people some of the time, and you can even fool some of the people all of the time, but Trump the Chump will never ever fool the majority of the people come the evening of November 8th.
Donald Trump's favorite pollsters
A closer look at the three tracking polls Trump loves the most.
USC/LATimes
Rasmussen Reports
Investors Business Daily/Techometrica
The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll consists of a weekly average of interviews conducted among a static panel of respondents surveyed throughout the campaign. That panel, which may not be reflective of the overall electorate this year, is weighted to the self-reported 2012 vote choice — a controversial decision that seeks to achieve the right balance between voters who usually cast ballots for Democrats and Republicans.
As of Wednesday morning, Trump was ahead by 1 point in the new model. It has been, by far, the friendliest poll for Trump, even showing him ahead of Clinton in the two weeks following the first debate last month, when Clinton began to pull away in other polls.
Clinton tied with Trump in Nevada, trouncing him in New Hampshire
Rasmussen, which relies mostly on automated phone calls to landlines, is a more familiar presence: it has had a persistent and often inaccurate Republican lean for most of the decade. The Investor's Business Daily/TIPP poll is more opaque, using more traditional methods but also peculiar and not-totally transparent weighting procedures, as outlined Tuesday by Washington Post pollster Scott Clement.
Investor’s Business Daily — a weekly, California-based business newspaper — and TIPP conduct live telephone interviews with likely voters on a daily basis, adding up to a six-day, rolling average.
Both Investor’s Business Daily and TIPP claim their survey has been the “most accurate presidential poll in America” — a tenuous boast based on their assessment of combined performance from the past three presidential elections. Like most polls in 2012, they underestimated the incumbent's margin of victory. Their final poll in 2012 showed Obama leading by 1 point; he won by nearly 4 points. Their results were closer to the mark in 2008 and 2004.
TIPP pollster Raghavan Mayur addressed the Post’s critiques in a phone interview with POLITICO on Wednesday. First, Mayur said, TIPP does not weight their poll to ensure they have the right mix of voters by education level — despite the fact education has been a defining fissure in this race, especially among white voters.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-tracking-polls-230293